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Read to find why I would be optimistically neutral at present.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nInvesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:QQQ) is a highly popular tech-oriented exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the Nasdaq-100 Index. As shown on Invesco's website, the fund has outperformed other popular U.S. equity indices over many years, most notably the S&P 500.\n(Invesco)\nThe principal reason is because tech companies typically grow faster than so-called non-tech companies, and often achieve high (or higher) returns on equity. This enables them to grow both their book values and forward earnings at a high rate over time. The tech indices naturally follow \"power laws\" in which the fastest growing, most profitable companies rise to the top as they are able to scale. So, there is usually quite a high degree of concentration in the QQQ fund. The top 10 constituents of the Nasdaq-100 Index for instance are currently as follows:\n(Invesco)\nA recent factsheet for QQQ indicates a similar grouping at the top (this would be as of June 30, 2021):\nTogether, QQQ's top 10 holdings by weight equal about 53% (safely over the 50% mark). So, this does resemble a power law (like the 80/20 rule, only in this case it is 50/10).\nIt is a good idea to have tech exposure, as while valuations can often seem high, over the long run you are investing in what is essentially a portfolio of winners. The U.S. equity market contains some of the highest-ROE companies in the world (that is, companies that are extremely productive). QQQ is a fund that rebalances in line with rotations in the Nasdaq-100 Index (its target). So, you do not have to make any short-term decisions yourself; the fund takes care of that for you. If a company drops out of the QQQ fund, it is usually replaced by an even stronger company. As I say, through QQQ you get to own some of the best companies in the world by returns at all times.\nThe high return on equity earned by tech companies also means that the price you pay is not as relevant as you might think. Of course, valuations do matter, but until they are \"disgustingly high\", over the long run the returns that you will generate are likely to be good (and much better than in many other asset classes). It is also worth noting, in my opinion, that tech company valuations are often larger because there is a skewed level of \"surprise\". By this, I mean that tech companies stand a much greater chance of surprising on the upside in terms of earnings growth; that \"potential volatility\" (with an upside skew), or uncertainty, is sort of analogous to the value of an option. The more uncertainty, the more valuable the option, and a similar idea applies to technology stocks; the more \"uncertainty\" (or \"potential\"), the lower the equity risk premium (i.e., the higher the equity valuation; investors demand lower returns adjusted for current earnings and near-term forecasts).\nI think this is one reason why we see tech stocks achieve higher valuations, but there are other simple, accountable factors like high present ROE and sales growth.\n(Yardeni Research. Tech stocks remain popular, with the S&P 500's technology stocks finding a forward P/E ratio over 24% higher than the overall index. Many of these stocks make their way into the QQQ fund.)\nClearly from the chart above we are not in bubble territory, if the dot-com boom around the turn of the century provides any indication. We also have to consider extremely loose monetary policy too; your cost of equity is made up simplistically from risk-free rates and then the equity risk premium (over and above risk-free rates) that you demand as an investor. With long-term yields so low (1.28% on the U.S. 10-year at present), it is really the equity risk premium that is the primary driver.\nAnd ERPs are quite abstract concepts; in theory this could be zero. Why demand more than what risk-free rates have to offer? Intuitively we would say that it should be over zero, and that makes sense, but how far above zero? Professor Damodaran has discussed equity risk premia at length, and after looking at long-term returns on equities across the world, he found (adjusted for survivorship bias) that the long-term ERP is about 3.2%. So, add that to 1.28%, and in theory, the market would not really be entering bubble territory until it had started to imply an ERP well under the sum of 3.2% and 1.28%, or 4.48% (yes, that's a pretty low return, but not intrinsically \"unfair\").\nOf course, given loose monetary policy, we could argue the 10-year should be higher, and adjust for this (looking at estimates of the natural rate of interest, for example, as an indication). Nevertheless, the bond market is where it is, and long-term ERPs tend to be low, and tech valuations sort of \"deserve\" higher valuations by their nature. So, this is all important to think about when thinking about QQQ's valuation.\nAs of June 30, 2021, QQQ's portfolio's return on equity was reported as being 36.01%, which is frankly incredible at the scale of these companies. People talk about Apple Inc. (AAPL) being overvalued, but you have to square that with the fact that the company generated a trailing return on equity of 131.01% to the quarter ended June 30, 2021. At the scale of Apple (with over $86 billion in net income), that is insane, and so it should be no wonder that it is the most valuable in the world.\nNow, you do pay up for this kind of return on equity; the price/book ratio was reported as being 15.23x (QQQ fund). According to Morningstar data, the forward price/earnings ratio is about 28.38x, which is higher than Yardeni Research's figure for select tech stocks within the S&P 500. If we rounded this up to 30x, you are looking at a forward earnings yield of something like 3.33%. But note that this is still below our long-term ERP found by Damodaran, worldwide (long term), of 3.2%. So again, this is not entirely worrying in my opinion, especially considering the potential for strong earnings growth within the tech sector.\nAssuming Invesco's factsheet is broadly accurate in terms of price/book etc., we can start by dividing the QQQ share price by 15.23x (using the June 30, 2021 price of QQQ of $354.43), and that gives us a starting book value balance of $23.27. Morningstar's data seems more conservative in the sense that it suggests a forward ROE of just over 26%. If I use that figure as a starting point, then re-rate down the ROE gradually to about 20% by around year 30, and then assume a further fall over the following 70 years to 15% (remember, this portfolio should \"forever\" represent the very best companies on offer in terms of growth potential and productivity), and no dividends for simplicity, I find an IRR of just under 17%. At the end of the 100-year \"model\" I assume we just get the book value as terminal value (i.e., price/book 1.00x).\nSo, in this regard, we can get a glimpse into the power of high returns on equity, and how present-day valuations are not always as important as one thinks, provided your time horizon is long. A 17% IRR would suggest a much higher ROE than 3.2%. If you instead built into your assumptions a kind of low-ROE \"Japanification\", of 15% by year 30 and then 7% by year 100, the IRR would still be over 11% (ERP of almost 10%). What we're doing here is essentially comparing year-100 book value with the QQQ share price paid today.\nSo, in the long run, QQQ is likely worth holding. But if you take a shorter-term view, it is admittedly a different equation. The short-term model below looks at earlier-cited data from Invesco, Morningstar, and Damodaran, and builds a kind of short-term earnings based model (ex dividends and buybacks). Given differences in estimates of forward earnings, year-one earnings growth is probably not perfectly accurate, but over the five-year period the numbers should roughly tally with consensus expectations (Morningstar report a five-year earnings growth rate of around 15.72% for QQQ).\nThis model implies QQQ is due for a correction of about 20%. However, I also use Damodaran's mature market premium of a full 4.31%, as opposed to something lower like 3.2% (as discussed previously). If we take the uncertainty / positive surprise factor as justification for tightening the ERP by, say, 20% (about the difference between Yardeni's S&P 500 forward P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and tech), we would move down to an ERP of 3.6%. That would create a possible correction of 10%. And if we finally went all the way down to 3.2%, Damodaran's observed long-term equity risk premium for stocks worldwide, that would indicate that QQQ is trading at fair value (with -1.0% downside potential from the current market price).\nThe figures are somewhat loose, based on sometimes noisy consensus estimates that are also often optimistically presented (e.g., not properly adjusted for interest and taxes; based on \"operating earnings\" and so on). If I build a margin of safety of about 15% for this (re-rating base earnings and also ROE downward, and using my lower long-term ROE assumptions all the way to 7% by year-100), my long-term model still offers an indicative 11% IRR (just under), which is still bullish long term, although my short-term model does create downside of -14%, even with an indicative ERP of 3.2%.\nWrapping this up, I would say long-term buy-and-hold investors should ignore corrections, because these are nearly impossible to time. Meanwhile, QQQ's portfolio is going to continue to perform well long term (by design), which means that book values will compound (and thus fair equity values will rise).\nBut in the short term, sure, I can see the market possibly shaping up for some kind of correction, perhaps between 10-20% at most. I may explore this further in future; corrections are typical, but the extent to which is often based on the level of market stress. And given that liquidity remains high, I see more potential for excess than stress. I do not currently see any powerful reasons on the horizon for a large, mechanical sell-off. It is possible we get a sell-off soon, but equally probable that we see a flat market with low volatility while earnings pick up, allowing book values and earnings to \"catch up\" with equity values. In conclusion then, I am optimistically neutral.\nThis article was written by\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", "timestamp_ms": 1629008595000, "published_utc": "2021-08-15T06:23:15Z", "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449510-qqq-valuations-are-high-but-long-term-holders-should-be-comfortable", "label_type": ["[1][c] Company-Specific News", "[2][c] Stock Recommendations"], "label_time": ["[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)", "[3][b] Medium-Term Outlook (6 months \u2013 2 years)"], "label_sentiment": ["[2][b] Mixed Outlook"]}, "trend": {"input_percentage_change": 0.8518762043472662, "input_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%", "output_percentage_change": -0.5723099907441976, "output_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%", "overall_percentage_change": 1.616960114983821, "overall_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%"}, "technical": {"in_sma_10": [361.79, 360.8075, 360.0883333333333, 359.96945, 359.89788, 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