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Find out my recommendation on MPW stock.\n\nArticle Content:\n\ncharles taylor\ncharles taylor\nI\u00e2\u0080\u0099ve been covering Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE:MPW) for around a decade, and I haven\u00e2\u0080\u0099t always been bullish. As I explained in a Seeking Alpha article on April 15, 2013:\nSeeking Alpha\nSeeking Alpha\nIn 2018, I was still not sold on MPW, as I was having concerns with the company\u00e2\u0080\u0099s European expansion plans. As I explained:\nSeeking Alpha\nSeeking Alpha\nNow take a look at the price action of MPW from inception:\nYahoo Finance\nYahoo Finance\nMore recently, MPW has been beaten down by short sellers, which has caused shares to massively underperform real estate investment trust (\"REIT\") peers, as show below:\nYahoo Finance\nYahoo Finance\nLast week, MPW sold off over 18%:\nYahoo Finance\nYahoo Finance\nSo, let\u00e2\u0080\u0099s take a closer look\u00e2\u0080\u00a6\nMedical Properties Trust is an internally managed real estate investment trust that was founded in 2003 by its current CEO, Ed Aldag. MPW is in the healthcare sector and specializes in net-leased hospital properties.\nTheir assets include 444 properties with approximately 44,000 licensed beds in the U.S., the UK, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries around the world. The majority of their revenue comes from general acute care hospitals, with 75.2% of their fourth quarter revenue coming from this category as of the end of 2022.\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nAs seen below, MPW has a diverse portfolio, with 61% in the U.S., 21% in the UK, 4% in Australia, 4% in Switzerland, 3% in Germany, 1% in Spain, and 6% other:\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 Investor Presentation\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 Investor Presentation\nThey are also diversified by property type. In addition to general acute care hospitals, MPW also owns or has ownership interests in behavioral health centers, Impatient rehabilitation facilities, Long-term acute care hospitals, and freestanding ER / urgent care centers.\nMPW has approximately $19.7 billion in total assets that includes $13.4 billion of general acute care hospitals, $2.7 billion of behavioral health centers, $1.4 billion of rehabilitation facilities, $0.3 billion of long-term acute care hospitals, and $0.2 billion of urgent care properties. They have 55 hospital operators that either lease or mortgage the property through MPW.\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nMedical Properties Trust\u00e2\u0080\u0099s largest tenants include Steward Health Care, Circle Health, Prospect Medical Holdings, Priory Group, and Springstone Inc.\nTheir largest tenant, Steward, has been in focus much of the last year due to the percentage of revenue they provide and the amount of investments MPW has in them. As of December 31, 2022, Steward made up 26.1% of their fourth quarter revenue and 24.2% of their total assets.\nOne of the bigger risks related to MPW has to do with tenant concentration, as seen below:\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nLast week, Steward and CommonSpirit announced a definitive agreement for Steward to sell the operations of their Utah facilities to Catholic Health Initiative, a CommonSpirit subsidiary. The purchase price will be used by Steward to pay down debt obligations, including the loan MPW made to Steward ($150 mm) and provide Steward with liquidity.\nCommonSpirit, with a credit rating of A, is one of the country's largest and most respected not-for-profit health care providers. The announcement made last week regarding Steward's pending sale of its Utah facilities validates the MPW model of underwriting and validates the value of the entire portfolio. Upon the sale, MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s exposure to Steward will be reduced from 26.1% to 17.2%.\nIn addition, the company\u00e2\u0080\u0099s largest property represents less than 2.7% of the total portfolio and further insulates the company. In addition, the company continues to enhance its global footprint, which represents around 39% of the portfolio.\nAnother large operator for MPW is Prospect Medical Holdings (14 properties representing 11.5% of revenue):\nProspect is making progress with their East Coast divestitures in Rhode Island and Connecticut. The transaction in Connecticut with Yale and New Haven Health Systems is still tracking for a midyear close.\nWhile the non-MPW facilities in Rhode Island are expected to close in the latter part of 2023, MPW said that third-parties have valued Prospect's managed care business at around $1 billion.\nWith MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s security interest in this managed care business, the share of proceeds from the Yale sale and the excess value in the California properties are more than sufficient collateral even without regard to the value of the Pennsylvania properties to more than realize the full return of the investment in prospects, including any deferred rent.\nIn addition to multiple initiatives at their hospitals, Prospect management is focused on an aggressive cost-cutting measure that should enable them to return the Pennsylvania market to profitability in approximately 12 to 18 months.\nThe California facilities are currently generating a coverage of 1.2 times on a trailing 12-month basis as of the end Q3-22. However, given the elongated timing of the Pennsylvania recovery MPW felt it prudent to write off previously recorded straight-line rent and write down the Pennsylvania facilities.\nImportantly, MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s largest individual facility is less than 3% of the company\u00e2\u0080\u0099s investment portfolio. While operator risk is certainly elevated for MPW, the likelihood of significant closure is very small, as the majority of properties in the portfolio are deemed mission critical.\nMPW Investor Presentation\nMPW Investor Presentation\nHere\u00e2\u0080\u0099s a snapshot of MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s management team:\nMPW Investor Presentation\nMPW Investor Presentation\nA few months ago, I drove to Birmingham, AL, to meet with the CEO, Edward Aldag and CFO, Steven Hamner (I published an article for iREIT on Alpha members). Last week, MPW said that its COO, Emmett McLean, was retiring effective September 1st, after over 20 years of service.\nSeeking Alpha\nSeeking Alpha\nHe did not resign, as suggested by short sellers\u00e2\u0080\u00a6\nMPW has a global footprint where the use of private jets is necessary. I have no opinion as it relates to the need to utilize two or three jets, and whether or not the aircraft should be owned or leased.\nWith 49% of assets located outside of the U.S., the use of aircraft is essential, and MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s own vs. lease decision should be rooted in the best outcome for investors. I have discussed this with management (in my last interview).\nAs viewed below, Aldag owns 4,322,690 shares valued at just over $43 million and Hamner owns 2,397,420 shares valued at just over $25 million. Collectively, insiders own 1.3% of the shares outstanding.\nYahoo Finance\nYahoo Finance\nAs most of you are probably well aware, there have been multiple short campaigns against MPW over the last year, most of which involve Steward. MPW was accused of overpaying for properties in leaseback transactions and issuing loans to Steward in order to help Steward pay off their loans from their former private equity sponsor.\nThere were other accusations that MPW inflated the value of their assets by lending billions of dollars in uncommercial transactions to its tenants and then capitalizing the loans to increase the value of their assets.\nWhile there is definitely a mutually beneficial relationship between MPW and Steward, no claims of illegal accounting or shady lending practices have been proven, and no charges have been filed by regulatory agencies.\nIn terms of MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s tenant concentration with Steward, MPW stresses that they invest in the real estate, not the operator, and if the asset they own is an income producing property, then they can replace an operator if necessary.\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nI think with most real estate this is true. If the property serves a need and is in a great location with high traffic, then an efficient operator can utilize the space to generate a profit.\nI think this is especially true with mission-critical assets like hospitals. Several months ago, I took a look at each Steward Health Care asset listed in MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s filings to gauge the profitability of the property.\nSince Steward is a private company and does not list its financial information, the best we can do is look at the property\u00e2\u0080\u0099s location, its proximity to major highways, if it\u00e2\u0080\u0099s in an urban or rural location, and other factors such as competing hospitals nearby. You can find the full article that details each location at the link below:\nMedical Properties: Think Mission-Critical | Seeking Alpha.\nMedical Properties has had a rough time recently, and their share price has suffered due to multiple factors including the short campaign, the overall concern over their concentration in Steward, a tenant bankruptcy, and the general economic backdrop that impacted the broader market, particularly interest rates and inflation. MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s stock has fallen -48.13% over the past year.\nGoogle\nGoogle\nSeveral positive developments have occurred recently to alleviate some of the forementioned concerns. In January 2023, Medical Properties announced that Pipeline Health will assume the existing terms of their Los Angeles Master Lease. The lease rate and escalator remain unchanged and MPW is entitled to collect 100% of the rent accrued during Pipeline\u00e2\u0080\u0099s bankruptcy proceedings.\nIn February 2023, MPW announced that CommonSpirit Health will acquire Steward\u00e2\u0080\u0099s operations in Utah and lease the properties from MPW. Upon completion the transaction will help improve MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s operator diversification. The Utah real estate represents approximately 6% of MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s total gross assets and Steward\u00e2\u0080\u0099s concentration will be reduced by the same amount.\nMedical Properties Trust reported their 2022 full year results last week. For the full year, net income came in at $1.50 per diluted share, which was a 35% increase over the previous year, and normalized funds from operations (\u00e2\u0080\u009cNFFO\u00e2\u0080\u009d) came in at $1.82 per share, which was a 4% year-over-year increase.\nAdjusted funds from operations was reported at $1.42 per share, which was also a 4% increase over the prior year. MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s dividend for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $0.29, which is unchanged from the prior three quarters.\nOther highlights from their release include a development project they began in South Carolina for approximately $22.0 million, which will be leased to Ernest upon completion. They also acquired six Priory behavioral health facilities in the UK for \u00c2\u00a3233 million (approximately $278 million USD).\nThe facilities have 374 beds and are located near London, Manchester, and Bristol in the UK. Additionally, they noted that in 2023 they expect an additional $50 million in rent due to CPI-based and fixed rent escalators.\nWhile MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s FFO per share was in-line and revenues beat expectations, the stock saw sharp declines after the earnings release, likely due to the 2023 guidance provided by MPW.\nInitial guidance provided by MPW for NFFO in 2023 was reported at $1.50 per share at the low end to $1.65 per share at the high end. The mid-point of $1.57 per share represents a 13.7% decline in NFFO from 2022 levels and was well below the consensus estimate of $1.73 per share.\nThis was conservative estimate, and it was based on the Q4-22 normalized FFO annualized run rate of $1.71 and adding back MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s contractual rent escalations of about $0.05 per share, as well as the impact of rent and interest income from acquisitions and dispositions.\nThen MPW added the CommonSpirit Utah transaction \u00e2\u0080\u0093 the related cash proceeds and interest expense with respect to transactions in Q4 is an aggregate pro forma of another $0.03 per share.\nSo, those estimates yield a guidance estimate of approximately $1.79 of normalized FFO on a Prospect-neutral basis (if Prospect Medical Holdings paid all its 2023 rent and interest obligations).\nMPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s estimates of potential outcomes regarding Prospect range from a worst-case scenario (in which it would recognize no rent or interest) to a more reasonably expected likely outcome (recognizing most of the California and Connecticut rent, but nothing from the Pennsylvania investment). The per share range of these scenarios would be 2023 normalized FFO of between $1.50 and $1.65, and that is what MPW reported last week.\nEven at the $1.65 high end of the 2023 guidance, it does not consider incremental FFO that would be created by the recycling of the current investment in the Prospect East Coast investment, assuming succession the restructuring and monetization of Prospect's managed care business. Thus, MPW has guided from $1.82 (in 2022) to the midpoint of $1.57 in 2023.\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 Form 8-K\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 Form 8-K\nF A S T Graphs\nF A S T Graphs\nAs seen above, we have modeled the guided FFO per share to $1.57 (midpoint) which translates into a -13.7% decline from 2022 levels. Recognizing this is the conservative outlook provided by management and using the high-end estimate (of $1.65), the FFO would decline by around 9% in 2023 (as shown below):\nF A S T Graphs\nF A S T Graphs\nThe CEO and founder Edward Aldag commented that they are guiding for a conservative scenario in 2023 due to the underperformance of Prospect\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Pennsylvania hospitals.\n\u00e2\u0080\u009cThe vast majority of our portfolio is positioned to support a significant inflation-based increase in cash rents for 2023,\u00e2\u0080\u009d said Edward K. Aldag, Jr., Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer. \u00e2\u0080\u009cOn the other hand, our initial outlook for this year contemplates a conservative scenario due to the underperformance of Prospect\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Pennsylvania hospitals that we first communicated over a year ago, as well as the process by which we expect to recover our full investment in Prospect\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Pennsylvania and Connecticut hospitals.\u00e2\u0080\u009d\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 Form 8-K.\nWhile 2023 guidance may have come in below expectations, over the years MPW has shown the ability to deliver long-term growth. Since 2012 MPW has an average revenue growth of 23.53%, average operating cash flow growth rate of 25.92% (years 2012 to 2021), an average funds from operations growth rate of 6.53%, and an average dividend growth rate of 3.45%.\nBamSEC (10K reports, compiled & calculated by iREIT) BamSEC (10K reports compiled by iREIT) F A S T Graphs (compiled by iREIT)\nBamSEC (10K reports, compiled & calculated by iREIT)\nBamSEC (10K reports compiled by iREIT)\nF A S T Graphs (compiled by iREIT)\nF A S T Graphs (MPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 dividend)\nF A S T Graphs (MPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 dividend)\nAs of Q4-22 MPW had total assets of approximately $19.7 billion, including $13.4 billion of general acute care hospitals, $2.7 billion of behavioral health facilities, $1.4 billion of inpatient rehabilitation facilities, $0.3 billion of long-term acute care hospitals, and $0.2 billion of freestanding emergency room and urgent care properties. MPW\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Net Debt was $10.3 billion, which represents Net Debt to Assets of 53%.\nMPW Filing\nMPW Filing\nThe company is rated BB+, which sits just below investment-grade ratings. For S&P, an issue rated BB+ is regarded as having significant speculative characteristics, and while such obligations will likely have some quality and protective characteristics, these may be outweighed by significant uncertainties or major exposures to adverse conditions. The modifier '+' means it has a stronger relative standing among Ba-rated credit.\nThey have reasonable debt metrics with an adjusted net debt / annualized EBITDAre of 6.4x. They have a weighted average interest rate of 3.608% and 88% of their debt is fixed rate. As of the third quarter in 2022, MPW had $1.2 billion in total liquidity.\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nMPW \u00e2\u0080\u0093 4Q22 Supplemental\nIn February, MPW declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, representing a Q4-22 payout of adjusted funds from operations (\u00e2\u0080\u009cAFFO\u00e2\u0080\u009d) per share of roughly 85%. Anticipating a decline of around 10% in earnings in 2023, the payout ratio will likely move closer to 95%, which puts the risk of a dividend cut at an elevated level.\nGiven these new facts, iREIT is downgrading shares from a Strong Buy to a Spec Buy and the quality rating decreases from 86 to 75. MPW also has near-term debt maturities that we\u00e2\u0080\u0099ll be monitoring closely.\nMPW Filing\nMPW Filing\nAs viewed below, MPW has the lowest P/FFO multiple in the healthcare REIT sector and the third-highest dividend yield (of 9.5%).\niREIT\niREIT\nWhile there is elevated risk of a dividend cut, we are maintaining a BUY (albeit speculative) recognizing that shares are trading at a significant discount.\nIn addition, we consider the underlying assets mission critical, thus the demand for these properties support our buy thesis.\nGiven the new quality score, we recommend that investors maintain responsible portfolio diversification.\nF A S T Graphs\nF A S T Graphs\nJoin iREIT on Alpha today to get the most in-depth research that includes REITs, mREIT, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, ETFs, and we recently added Prop Tech SPACs to the lineup.\u00c2\u00a0Nothing to lose with our FREE 2-week trial.\nAnd this offer includes a 2-Week FREE TRIAL plus my FREE book.\nThis article was written by\nBrad Thomas has over 30 years of real estate investing experience and has acquired, developed, or brokered over $1B in commercial real estate transactions. He has been featured in Barron's, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and many other media outlets. He's the author of four books, including the latest, REITs For Dummies.\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MPW either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Author's note: Brad Thomas is a Wall Street writer, which means he's not always right with his predictions or recommendations. Since that also applies to his grammar, please excuse any typos you may find. Also, this article is free: Written and distributed only to assist in research while providing a forum for second-level thinking.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", + "timestamp_ms": 1677585600000, + "published_utc": "2023-02-28T12:00:00Z", + "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4582513-medical-property-trust-a-battleground-reit-now-yielding-9-5-percent", + "label_type": [ + "[1][c] Company-Specific News", + "[2][c] Stock Recommendations" + ], + "label_time": [ + "[1][c] Long-Term Retrospective (> 1 year)", + "[2][b] Recent Trends (Past Few Weeks \u2013 Ongoing)" + ], + "label_sentiment": [ + "[2][b] Mixed Outlook" + ] + }, + "trend": { + "input_percentage_change": -4.866458444880719, + "input_bin_label": "<-4%", + "output_percentage_change": 0.08743838772710755, + "output_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%", + "overall_percentage_change": -19.102861562258305, + "overall_bin_label": "<-4%" + }, + "technical": { + "in_sma_10": [ + 12.93, + 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