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Read on to know my educated guess about the 2022 dividend.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nIt's that last part that probably gets me most excited because even with the adjustments, PRU's price is still just a pinch below book value per share.\nIn general, buying below book value is accretive to investors who are looking for capital gains. It's a bit like buying $1.00 for $0.99 which is an instant discount. Or, as some folks like to say, it provides a Margin of Safety.\nAll of that is in relation to PRU's intrinsic value. In effect, it's from the perspective of \"buy and hold\" so that in the future, I might sell for a higher price and enjoy the gains. It maybe reversion to the mean, or maybe it's a story about growth. It's good news, and I enjoy it, but now I'll shift my perspective to dividends.\nHere's how the article will play out going forward. First, I show how PRU compares to the industry, in terms of dividend yield and earnings. Second, I look at PRU's yield over time. Third, I review PRU's payout ratio, including a dividend cut. Fourth, I take an educated guess about the 2022 dividend. Lastly, I wrap up with a quick discussion about valuation, and my bullish call.\nFirst, I just want to show how PRU compares to the industry. I think this is a great way to get the engine running.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAs I've indicated in the image above:\nIt's wonderful to see that the dividend yield is so high, comparatively speaking. But, it's equally impressive to see that underlying earnings are providing returns above and beyond. Investors can have their cake and eat it too. In plain terms, earnings are fueling dividends.\nNow, here's how the yield looks over time:\nWhat I'd like to point out is that when you see drops in yield you're seeing either massive run-ups in price in a short period of time, or perhaps you're seeing dividend cuts. And, when you see a massive spike in yield, there's either a price drop, or a huge dividend increase.\nClearly, price has been all over the place. As I've already mentioned, that pushes the yield all over the place, regardless of earnings. Here's what else I can tell you. In 2008, PRU's dividend was cut. However, the dividend has been increasing relentlessly since 2009. Let me show you how that looks:\nSource: FAST Graphs\nTherefore, over the last 10 years, the rise in dividend yields, and those interesting spikes, have been caused by increasing payouts, but also price drops. It's always good to remember that when prices drop, yields go up. That's why buying with a Margin of Safety is good for both capital gains and increasing your starting yield.\nNow, in the chart above, I also want to point out that over the last 18 years, the average yield CAGR is just over 14%. Roughly speaking, that means that the dividend has grown 14% year after year, for 18 years. Obviously that cannot be true given the cut in 2008, but speaking in averages, it's lovely.\nFinally, I want to point out that PRU's dividend has also grown because it's paying out more earnings. The Payout Ratio was 15-25% through 2015, but since then, it's been a bit elevated. It was hitting 30%, give or take, and then it hit 43% in 2020. Here's some good news:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWith 2020 behind us, PRU is getting stronger. The payout ratio is back down around 35%, which is a relief.\n2018 earnings were $11.69, 2019 earnings were also $11.69, 2020 dropped to $10.21 and for 2021, estimates are just under $13 per share. And, with the dividend currently at $4.60 we're looking at a payout ratio around 35%, by the numbers. I'm feeling comfortable with what I'm seeing through 2021.\nHow about the dividend in the future? PRU earnings have been relatively stable over time, which isn't surprising given the industry. Therefore, I have modest confidence in predicting the dividend. Take a look at the history:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nTherefore, conservatively speaking, I think we'll be seeing $1.15 in August and then $1.15 again in November. And, unless something changes in a big way, I'm conservatively expecting a 9-10% dividend raise next February, and we'll see $1.25 per quarter, or $5 per year. That would be good enough for a 5% yield given today's price, which is right around $100 per share.\nPRU's 20-year P/E is about 11, the 15-year is about 9, the 10-year is about 9 and 5-year is also about 9. The current P/E is about 8, and the blended forward and current P/E is under 9 right now. I can show you why in one simple chart.\nSource: FAST Graphs\nBefore the Great Financial Crisis from 2007 through 2009, PRU regularly had a P/E around 15. Then, all hell broke loose, and financials got destroyed. You can see this with the purple arrows. And then, since 2009 through 2021, per the purple arrows, you can see that the P/E average has been crushed, below 10. So, it's not like PRU is far off from normal right now, at least not compared to the last 10-15 years. So, there you have it.\nLet me make this super clear. Take a look at what happens when the timeframe is collapsed to 10 years, including two years forward.\nSource: FAST Graphs\nThe market seems to think that PRU is trading at fair value. That data backs that up, but I'm thinking more like PRU is a dividend machine that's not appreciated. It's proven itself, well after the Great Financial Crisis. But, if the market wants to disagree, that's fine. I'll collect and enjoy.\nAt $100, give or take, PRU is an excellent buy, and I'm bullish. I don't expect to see $150 any time soon. But, I could easily see $120 by the end of 2023, powered by dividend growth if nothing else. I think we're looking at an easy 10-12% total CAGR, given potential price gains and a hearty dividend. Further, I would not be shocked to see CAGR of 15-20% through 2023, and into 2025.\nThis article was written by\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PRU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", + "timestamp_ms": 1628138363000, + "published_utc": "2021-08-05T04:39:23Z", + "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445188-prudential-stock-for-dividend-investors", + "label_type": [ + "[2][c] Stock Recommendations", + "[1][c] Company-Specific News" + ], + "label_time": [ + "[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)", + "[2][b] Recent Trends (Past Few Weeks \u2013 Ongoing)" + ], + "label_sentiment": [ + "[1][a] Bullish" + ] + }, + "trend": { + "input_percentage_change": -2.500181335529376, + "input_bin_label": "-2% ~ -4%", + "output_percentage_change": 3.5630527497194096, + "output_bin_label": "+2% ~ +4%", + "overall_percentage_change": 4.57204133359329, + "overall_bin_label": ">+4%" + }, + "technical": { + "in_sma_10": [ + 102.58, + 101.34, + 100.83333333333333, + 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