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Housing Is In A Bullish Shortage, Not A Bearish Bubble\nBy Gary J. Gordon\nPublished on: 2022-05-01T05:46:54Z\n\nPulte reported excellent Q1 earnings despite supply chain problems. Click here to see its growth catalysts, valuation, and why I consider PHM a buy now.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nBill Pugliano/Getty Images News\nBill Pugliano/Getty Images News\nHomebuilder PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) is selling at a 3.8 P/E ratio as I write this. Stocks don\u00e2\u0080\u0099t sell at 3.8 P/Es without the assumption of impending disaster. One disastrous assumption could be an extended recession/depression. If that sounds right to you, stop reading this article now, pack up your canned goods and head for the hills. The other possible one is that the very sharp rise in mortgage rates this year will shut down a housing bubble the country has experienced the past two years.\nAs you could probably guess from my buy rating on Pulte, I disagree with the bubble thesis. A surge in asset prices like U.S. housing has experienced \u00e2\u0080\u0093 a 34% rise over the past two years through February, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index \u00e2\u0080\u0093 can be due to either a supply shortage or excess demand. I will present evidence that it is the former, not the latter.\nIf you buy my evidence, then Pulte is a very cheap stock. I\u00e2\u0080\u0099ll review its strong Q1 and my EPS outlook to reinforce that view. Therefore, if the U.S. can dodge that depression, this stock should be up 50-100% in time.\nNew housing is needed as the population grows. U.S. population growth has been slowing for several decades, which is clearly bad for new home demand. But following the end of a true housing bubble in 2007, home construction plummeted. Housing starts averaged 661,000 a year from 2008-2019, down 41% from the pre-bubble 1990s. As a result, housing got increasingly in short supply, as this chart shows:\nCensus Bureau\nCensus Bureau\nSource: U.S. Census Bureau\nThis chart clearly shows the excess housing supply created during the 2004-2007 housing bubble. The single-family home vacancy rate surged to 3%. And it shows that the dearth of new supply steadily used up the excess, to the point that the vacancy rate hit 0.8% during Q1 \u00e2\u0080\u009922, a more than 6 decades low.\nTo further illustrate this crucial point, here is my estimate of the numerical total housing (single family and apartment) excess/shortage, versus a 3.5% normal vacancy rate:\nCensus Bureau\nCensus Bureau\nSource: U.S. Census Bureau\nAs we stand today, the U.S. is short a record 1.6 million housing units! As a result, not only home prices soared. From Pulte\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Q1 earnings conference call: \u00e2\u0080\u009cAccording to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, their numbers indicate that\u00e2\u0080\u00a6multifamily lease rates were up by approximately 13% over the prior year.\u00e2\u0080\u009d\nReal estate, both residential and commercial, has had periods of excess demand in the past. Why? Because of too-liberal lending standards creating too much debt. That was certainly the case in the \u00e2\u0080\u009904-\u00e2\u0080\u009907 housing bubble, but it is far from the case today. The evidence is very clear. First, here is an index of home mortgage lending standards; the higher the index the looser the lending:\nThe Urban Institute\nThe Urban Institute\nSource: The Urban Institute\nYou can see the dramatic difference in lending practices today versus the bubble. And you can see that the recent home price surge was not driven by easier lending standards.\nAs a result, while mortgage debt growth certainly picked up to finance the sharp increase in home sales over the past two years, that growth rate is nowhere near the \u00e2\u0080\u009902-\u00e2\u0080\u009907 debt bubble:\nFederal Reserve\nFederal Reserve\nSource: Federal Reserve\nU.S. single family housing starts were 1.1 million last year, after three years averaging 0.9 million. That was far from enough \u00e2\u0080\u0093 the housing shortage grew over the last four years by one million units. So, starts should at least average 1.1 million units a year going forward. Will they do so in every year? Probably not. Higher interest rates and a possible recession should push starts lower next year. But starts should recover in order to reduce the supply shortage. I therefore assume that homes sold for Pulte and its peers over the next four years will average about their \u00e2\u0080\u009921 levels.\nHere are the highlights:\nA lot of great numbers. But flat closings? A 19% decline in new orders? That doesn\u00e2\u0080\u0099t sound good. But these are unusual times, as Pulte noted on its earnings call:\n\u00e2\u0080\u009cOur production time lines extended by about one week in the first quarter and now stand at 145 days to 150 days in most of our divisions [due to supply chain issues]. With our production cycles remaining extended, we continue to tightly control sales in most of our communities across the country. We appreciate these restrictions can be frustrating for consumers, but it is the right strategic decision given overall conditions. From both the customer experience and a business risk perspective, it doesn\u00e2\u0080\u0099t make sense to extend our backlog out a year or more just to record another sign up.\u00e2\u0080\u009d\n\u00e2\u0080\u009cBetween delays in municipal approvals and extended land development time lines, it is taking longer for some communities to open for sale.\u00e2\u0080\u009d\nIn other words, various roadblocks both made construction more time-consuming and Pulte less willing to sell homes. But:\n\u00e2\u0080\u009cConsumer interest in purchasing a new home remained high throughout the quarter. With few exceptions, demand was strong across all the price points, buyer groups and markets that we serve.\u00e2\u0080\u009d\nSo, sales were not lost, they were just shifted to future quarters. That\u00e2\u0080\u0099s not so bad, is it?\nI expect Pulte to earn $11 a share this year and then $9 a share over the next three years. Wall Street analysts, as collated by Seeking Alpha, are even more optimistic. They agree with my \u00e2\u0080\u009922 number and expect the company to earn about $11.50 in both \u00e2\u0080\u009923 and \u00e2\u0080\u009924. My key forecasts are:\nLet\u00e2\u0080\u0099s take a look at price-to-book, a common valuation measure for homebuilders. This chart shows a 12-year history for Pulte, and a 31-year history for fellow homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL), which makes this long-term data easy to calculate:\nPulte/Toll financial statements, Yahoo Finance\nPulte/Toll financial statements, Yahoo Finance\nSources: Pulte financial statements, Toll Brothers financial statements, Yahoo Finance for historical price data\nFirst, the valuation changes for Toll and Pulte were similar over the past decade, so assuming it was so during the prior two decades seems reasonable. Second, the only time Toll\u00e2\u0080\u0099s price/book was at its current level was during the housing bust of \u00e2\u0080\u009907-\u00e2\u0080\u009911. During those years Toll lost a cumulative $6 per share, or nearly 30% of its beginning book value. Pulte did even worse, losing a cumulative $22 per share, or 80% of its book value.\nSo, same prices-to-book as in \u00e2\u0080\u009907. But a very different earnings outlook. Seeking Alpha\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Wall Street analyst survey says that Pulte will make a cumulative $34 a share over the next three years, or more than 100% of its current book value. And Toll Brothers is expected to earn $33 per share over the next three years, or 75% of its current book.\nYes, I know. Wall Street analysts can be wrong. Even a lot wrong. But they are going to have to be dramatically wrong for Pulte to be worth only its current $42 a share. Pulte would basically have to break even over the next three years. Which will take one whopper of a recession.\nIf you aren\u00e2\u0080\u0099t already packing canned goods preparatory for heading to a mountain cabin to ride out the coming depression, I suggest you buy Pulte stock. Or pretty much any homebuilder stock. Their current prices will turn out to be exceedingly cheap.\nThis article was written by\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PHM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I also own other homebuilder stocks.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", + "timestamp_ms": 1651384014000, + "published_utc": "2022-05-01T05:46:54Z", + "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505612-pultegroup-buy-housing-bullish-shortage-not-bearish-bubble", + "label_type": [ + "[2][c] Stock Recommendations", + "[1][c] Company-Specific News", + "[1][a] Macro & Economic News" + ], + "label_time": [ + "[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)", + "[2][b] Recent Trends (Past Few Weeks \u2013 Ongoing)", + "[1][a] Short-Term Retrospective (\u2264 3 months)" + ], + "label_sentiment": [ + "[1][a] Bullish" + ] + }, + "trend": { + "input_percentage_change": -0.6093202902212689, + "input_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%", + "output_percentage_change": 3.0873619863785415, + "output_bin_label": "+2% ~ +4%", + "overall_percentage_change": -0.2346316283434874, 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