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Demand remains robust despite some price increases.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nAdrianHancu\nAdrianHancu\nThis article first appeared in Trend Investing on June 14, 2022, when Tesla stock price was US$647; but has been updated for this article.\nAs the 2022 U.S. equity bear market rages on (S&P 500 index (GSPC) now at 3,863, down 18.95% YTD, P/E is now 19.41), we take a look at Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA).\nFor a background on Tesla, you can read our article:\nOr our Tesla article when Tesla was having Model 3 production ramp difficulties and the stock price had fallen to bargain levels of US$50 (adjusted pre-split):\nToday's article looks at Tesla's 2022 key news (the good, the bad, and the ugly) and explains why Tesla looks to be a 2022 beaten-down bargain. Tesla is currently ranked the number 2 globally YTD for electric car sales with 12.6% global market share.\nTesla's closing stock price peaked on November 1, 2021 at US$1,222.09. Today, the stock is at US$720.20, or 41% lower.\nTesla Inc. - Price = USD 720.20\nYahoo Finance\nYahoo Finance\nMay 4, 2022 - \"Tesla confirms plans for second plant in Shanghai..... production facility with an annual capacity of 450,000 vehicles is planned near the current plant.\"\nWedbush Securities lowered its 12-month price target on Tesla to $1,000 from $1,400 as it acknowledged that the current headwinds are too hard to ignore. Analyst Dan Ives said the reality is that the current Shanghai lockdowns have been an epic disaster so far in the second quarter and Tesla is expected to see modest delivery softness with a slower growth trajectory in the key China region right in front of the second half of the year. The Wedbush forecast for Q2 deliveries was lowered to 277K from 297K. Ives and team kept an Outperform rating on Tesla, but lowered earnings estimates for Q2, FY22 and FY23 to reflect softness in China.\"\nTogether with the 44,301 units it produced in April and May, according to data from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), that would add up to around 115,300 units in the second quarter......In the first three months of the year, Tesla Shanghai manufactured 178,887 cars, according to the CPCA.\"\nFinally, the news of a Shanghai production stoppage was both good and bad news for Tesla.\nJune 2023 - \"Tesla plans 2-week suspension for most Shanghai production for upgrade - memo. Tesla Inc plans to suspend most production at its Shanghai plant in the first two weeks of July to work on an upgrade of the site, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters. After the upgrade, the U.S. automaker aims to boost the plant's output to a new record high by the end of July to get closer to its goal of producing 22,000 cars per week in Shanghai, according to the memo.\"\nTesla had a superb Q1 2022 with record electric car sales and the opening of two new gigafactories (Berlin in late March and Texas in early April 2022).\nTesla had a poor Q2 2022 as Shanghai production came to a halt due to the China Covid-19 lockdowns.\nLooking ahead if Tesla is able to successfully ramp up production and reach the goal of 50% production growth, then 2022 deliveries should hit 1.4m despite the poor Q2. This assumes no more serious disruptions.\nTesla's stock price has been severely punished in 2022 due to the above news and the U.S. equity bear market. This has left the stock at a much more reasonable valuation.\nTesla's Q1 2022 results were released on April 20, 2022 and can be viewed here.\nQ1 2022 was a knockout quarter for Tesla as stated in their release:\nFirst quarter of 2022 was another record quarter for Tesla by several measures such as revenues, vehicle deliveries, operating profit and an operating margin of over 19%.\nTesla's Q1 2022 financials (highlighted column and far right column gives a comparison YoY)\nTesla\nTesla\nTesla's Q2 2022 results will be announced on July 20, 2022. Consensus is for EPS of US$1.83, which is well below the Q1 result of US$3.22. As shown in the chart below Q2 2022 is expected to be just a blip along the road of higher earnings each quarter for Tesla.\nTesla quarterly past EPS and forecast EPS in the quarters ahead\nSeeking Alpha\nSeeking Alpha\nTesla's H2 2022 outlook is still very uncertain and will depend a lot on whether their Shanghai gigafactory can run without further closures. It will also depend on the performance of their California factory production and to a lesser degree the ramping of new production at Berlin and Texas. Energy storage and solar should also help but are still less than 10% of revenues.\nGiven the severe interruptions from the China factory in Q2 2022, we have cut our 2022 Tesla electric car production target as shown below.\nTesla's 2022 actual electric car sales (Q1) and our forecasts for 2022\nNote: Assumes no more serious production disruptions in 2022. Our 2022 deliveries forecast has been cut from 1.6m to 1.4m due to the China factory disruptions and 2022 supply chain issues.\nThe current market cap of Tesla Inc. is US$746b. As of end Q1 2022, Tesla Inc. has US$18.0b in cash (including cash equivalents and short-term marketable securities) and less than US$0.1b in debt.\nYahoo Finance shows a 1-year analysts price target of US$882.90. 4-traders MarketScreener shows Tesla as an 'outperform' with a price target of US$891.52 representing 24% upside.\nSee table below for details.\nOur Tesla price targets based on a price earnings model\nUpside potential\n(from current $720)\nNotes\nThe price targets above are a bit lower than previously due to slightly lower production number forecasts.\nAssumptions\nTesla's financials and forecast financials\nMarketScreener\nMarketScreener\nTesla's P/E is forecast to reduce steadily - Forecast P/E's - 2022 P/E is 70, 2023 P/E is 50, 2023 P/E is 38\nMarketScreener\nMarketScreener\nTesla's Model Y [deliveries now] and Cybertruck [deliveries from mid-2023] should be huge contributors to Tesla's sales volumes in the years ahead.\nTesla website\nTesla website\nTesla website\nTesla website\nThe Tesla July 2022 story is reminiscent of the Tesla May 2019 story. Both times saw Tesla stock price fall significantly due to production issues. Had investors bought when we wrote about Tesla in 2019 at US$50 (split adjusted), prior to the 5 to 1 stock split and S&P 500 inclusion, you would now be up a very nice ~14x return. The similarities continue with Tesla recently announcing plans for an upcoming 3 for 1 stock split.\nWhilst the huge and fast Tesla stock gains have already been made, Tesla still offers enormous growth potential this decade across a number of sectors such as EVs, autonomous driving robotaxis, energy storage, energy production and distribution (solar, power distribution software), robotics (humanoid robot), insurance, Tesla subscriptions/services, and potentially more to come.\nTesla's H1 2022 is a story of 2 completely different quarters. Q1 2022 saw record sales and record profits and Tesla was riding high. Q2 2022 has been marred by several weeks of no production in Shanghai followed by a slow ramp back to full production. At least, Berlin and Texas have been slowly ramping up production at Tesla's new gigafactories.\nTesla's H2 2022 outlook is still cloudy given the China uncertainty and supply chain issues. Demand is there but can Tesla achieve their 50% production growth target in 2022? Given Tesla delivered 930,422 electric cars in 2021, a 50% increase in 2022 would mean about 1.4m deliveries in 2022. This is still very possible if Tesla has no more serious disruptions.\nValuation for Tesla is now more reasonable after a 41% stock price fall from its November 2021 high. MarketScreener shows a consensus price target of US$891, representing 24% upside. Our end 2022 price target is US$894 (24% upside), end 2025 is US$1,707, and end 2030 price target is US$2,211. Further significant upside to our price targets if Tesla succeeds with FSD/robotaxi fleet, humanoid robot, or other new products.\nRisks revolve around achieving the stated targets in the stated time frames to make the forecast profits. China production risk is the main concern for now. Please read the risks section carefully.\nWe rate Tesla Inc. as a buy for investors ideally with a long-term time frame. The key is to look beyond Q2 2022's production troubles and where Tesla is heading this decade.\nAs usual, all comments are welcome.\nTrend Investing\nIf you want to sign up for Trend Investing for investing ideas, latest trends, exclusive CEO interviews, chat room access, and to join other professional investors. You can benefit from the work done, especially in the EV and EV metals sector. You can learn more by reading \"The Trend Investing Difference\", or sign up here.\nLatest Trend Investing articles:\nThis article was written by\nThe Trend Investing group includes qualified financial personnel with a Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment and well over 20 years of professional experience in financial markets. They search the globe for great investments with a focus on trending and emerging themes. The current focus is on electric vehicles, the EV metals supply chain, stationary energy storage and AI.\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal or general financial advice. The contents of this article are NOT a \"recommendation\" and are NOT \"advice\". It is an analysis only. Readers should \"Do Your Own Research\" (\"DYOR\"). The content on this site is being provided for information purposes only and all decisions are your own. See also Seeking Alpha Terms of Use. https://seekingalpha.com/page/terms-of-use\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", + "timestamp_ms": 1658210640000, + "published_utc": "2022-07-19T06:04:00Z", + "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524097-2022-bear-market-bargains-series-tesla-inc", + "label_type": [ + "[1][c] Company-Specific News", + "[2][c] Stock Recommendations" + ], + "label_time": [ + "[1][c] Long-Term Retrospective (> 1 year)", + "[2][b] Recent Trends (Past Few Weeks \u2013 Ongoing)", + "[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)" + ], + "label_sentiment": [ + "[1][a] Bullish" + ] + }, + "trend": { + "input_percentage_change": 5.357222080283396, + "input_bin_label": ">+4%", + "output_percentage_change": 6.342709956709963, + "output_bin_label": ">+4%", + "overall_percentage_change": 19.11815187043111, + "overall_bin_label": ">+4%" + }, + "technical": { + "in_sma_10": [ + 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