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        "content": "Is Royal Caribbean a Bear Market Buy? 3 Red Flags.\nBy newsfeedback@fool.com (Will Ebiefung)\nPublished on: 2022-11-15T16:45:00Z\n\nManagement has some ambitious long-term goals. But it might struggle to pull them off.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nDown 24.5% year to date, Royal Caribbean (RCL 0.36%) hasn't escaped the impact of the 2022 bear market -- a cocktail of high inflation and rising interest rates that's battering the stock market in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, management is hopeful about its ability to turn these near-term challenges into long-term success.\nIn November, the company announced its Trifecta Program, a three-year financial performance framework designed to chart a pathway to earnings above $10 per share (up from negative $6.89 over the trailing 12 months) by enhancing its ship capacity, using capital more efficiently, and keeping costs under control. Let's discuss three reasons achieving Royal Caribbean's ambitious goal will be easier said than done.\nWhile Royal Caribbean is bouncing back from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, there is still work to be done. Third-quarter revenue surged 555% year over year to $2.99 billion because of easy comparisons against the prior-year period. But while this represents a convincing recovery, sales are still below the $3.19 billion generated this time in 2019.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nEarnings per share (EPS) of $10 will probably be harder to achieve than revenue growth, especially because annual EPS peaked at $9.54 in 2019 (and is negative $6.89 today). Essentially, the Trifecta Program aims to make Royal Caribbean more profitable than it was before COVID -- a time when it had less debt and fewer shares outstanding. This looks like a tall order that might not account for very real macroeconomic risks.\nWith a Bloomberg poll finding that 60% of surveyed economists predict a recession within 12 months, the company could find itself facing another consumer crisis before it has even recovered from the last one. High inflation is also increasing the cost of doing business by making fuel and employee wages more expensive than they were in 2019.\nWhile Royal Caribbean's sales are rapidly recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, the impact on its balance sheet will be much harder to overcome. As of the third quarter, the company reports $19.4 billion in long-term debt (compared to $8.4 billion in fiscal 2019). This debt will hurt profitability through interest expense. In the third quarter, this outflow totaled $352.2 million -- significantly more than Royal Caribbean's operating income of $298.4 million.\nThe problem could worsen as the Federal Reserve hikes the federal funds rate. This process could make it more expensive for Royal Caribbean to refinance its debt (by taking on new debt) and increase the interest rate on its existing debt, 30% of which has a floating rate.\nDebt wasn't the only tool Royal Caribbean used to survive the coronavirus pandemic. The company also tapped equity markets by selling its own stock. Shares outstanding number 255.18 million as of October compared to 209.63 million at this time in 2019, an increase of 22%.\nEquity dilution allowed Royal Caribbean to raise capital without tapping the risky and expensive debt markets, which was probably the right move at the time. But it isn't free money. Increasing the number of shares outstanding reduces the value of each share relative to future earnings (EPS). And the higher share count will make it that much harder for Royal Caribbean to meet its lofty profitability targets.\nRoyal Caribbean looks unlikely to meet the profitability goals outlined in its Trifecta Program because of challenges like debt and equity dilution, which will put pressure on EPS. The framework looks more like an aspirational target than reliable guidance, and the stock looks like a sell or a hold until more positive information becomes available.\nWill Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.\nMarket-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.\nCalculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 11/16/2023.\nCalculated by Time-Weighted Return since 2002. Volatility profiles based on trailing-three-year calculations of the standard deviation of service investment returns.\n\nSource: The Motley Fool\n",
        "timestamp_ms": 1668530700000,
        "published_utc": "2022-11-15T16:45:00Z",
        "article_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/15/is-royal-caribbean-a-bear-market-buy-3-red-flags/",
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            "[2][c] Stock Recommendations",
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            "[1][b] Medium-Term Retrospective (3\u201312 months)",
            "[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)"
        ],
        "label_sentiment": [
            "[3][a] Bearish"
        ]
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