Daily Papers

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

In recent years, significant progress has been made in video instance segmentation (VIS), with many offline and online methods achieving state-of-the-art performance. While offline methods have the advantage of producing temporally consistent predictions, they are not suitable for real-time scenarios. Conversely, online methods are more practical, but maintaining temporal consistency remains a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a novel online method for video instance segmentation, called TCOVIS, which fully exploits the temporal information in a video clip. The core of our method consists of a global instance assignment strategy and a spatio-temporal enhancement module, which improve the temporal consistency of the features from two aspects. Specifically, we perform global optimal matching between the predictions and ground truth across the whole video clip, and supervise the model with the global optimal objective. We also capture the spatial feature and aggregate it with the semantic feature between frames, thus realizing the spatio-temporal enhancement. We evaluate our method on four widely adopted VIS benchmarks, namely YouTube-VIS 2019/2021/2022 and OVIS, and achieve state-of-the-art performance on all benchmarks without bells-and-whistles. For instance, on YouTube-VIS 2021, TCOVIS achieves 49.5 AP and 61.3 AP with ResNet-50 and Swin-L backbones, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/jun-long-li/TCOVIS.

Lightweight direct Time-of-Flight (dToF) sensors are ideal for 3D sensing on mobile devices. However, due to the manufacturing constraints of compact devices and the inherent physical principles of imaging, dToF depth maps are sparse and noisy. In this paper, we propose a novel video depth completion method, called SVDC, by fusing the sparse dToF data with the corresponding RGB guidance. Our method employs a multi-frame fusion scheme to mitigate the spatial ambiguity resulting from the sparse dToF imaging. Misalignment between consecutive frames during multi-frame fusion could cause blending between object edges and the background, which results in a loss of detail. To address this, we introduce an adaptive frequency selective fusion (AFSF) module, which automatically selects convolution kernel sizes to fuse multi-frame features. Our AFSF utilizes a channel-spatial enhancement attention (CSEA) module to enhance features and generates an attention map as fusion weights. The AFSF ensures edge detail recovery while suppressing high-frequency noise in smooth regions. To further enhance temporal consistency, We propose a cross-window consistency loss to ensure consistent predictions across different windows, effectively reducing flickering. Our proposed SVDC achieves optimal accuracy and consistency on the TartanAir and Dynamic Replica datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/Lan1eve/SVDC.

Generalized visual grounding tasks, including Generalized Referring Expression Comprehension (GREC) and Segmentation (GRES), extend the classical visual grounding paradigm by accommodating multi-target and non-target scenarios. Specifically, GREC focuses on accurately identifying all referential objects at the coarse bounding box level, while GRES aims for achieve fine-grained pixel-level perception. However, existing approaches typically treat these tasks independently, overlooking the benefits of jointly training GREC and GRES to ensure consistent multi-granularity predictions and streamline the overall process. Moreover, current methods often treat GRES as a semantic segmentation task, neglecting the crucial role of instance-aware capabilities and the necessity of ensuring consistent predictions between instance-level boxes and masks. To address these limitations, we propose InstanceVG, a multi-task generalized visual grounding framework equipped with instance-aware capabilities, which leverages instance queries to unify the joint and consistency predictions of instance-level boxes and masks. To the best of our knowledge, InstanceVG is the first framework to simultaneously tackle both GREC and GRES while incorporating instance-aware capabilities into generalized visual grounding. To instantiate the framework, we assign each instance query a prior reference point, which also serves as an additional basis for target matching. This design facilitates consistent predictions of points, boxes, and masks for the same instance. Extensive experiments obtained on ten datasets across four tasks demonstrate that InstanceVG achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly surpassing the existing methods in various evaluation metrics. The code and model will be publicly available at https://github.com/Dmmm1997/InstanceVG.

Semi-supervised image segmentation has attracted great attention recently. The key is how to leverage unlabeled images in the training process. Most methods maintain consistent predictions of the unlabeled images under variations (e.g., adding noise/perturbations, or creating alternative versions) in the image and/or model level. In most image-level variation, medical images often have prior structure information, which has not been well explored. In this paper, we propose novel dual structure-aware image filterings (DSAIF) as the image-level variations for semi-supervised medical image segmentation. Motivated by connected filtering that simplifies image via filtering in structure-aware tree-based image representation, we resort to the dual contrast invariant Max-tree and Min-tree representation. Specifically, we propose a novel connected filtering that removes topologically equivalent nodes (i.e. connected components) having no siblings in the Max/Min-tree. This results in two filtered images preserving topologically critical structure. Applying the proposed DSAIF to mutually supervised networks decreases the consensus of their erroneous predictions on unlabeled images. This helps to alleviate the confirmation bias issue of overfitting to noisy pseudo labels of unlabeled images, and thus effectively improves the segmentation performance. Extensive experimental results on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly/consistently outperforms some state-of-the-art methods. The source codes will be publicly available.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences is crucial for their deployment in real-world applications. Recent advancements in Self-Rewarding Language Models suggest that an LLM can use its internal reward models (such as LLM-as-a-Judge) yuanself to generate preference data, improving alignment performance without costly human annotation. However, we find that different internal reward models within the same LLM often generate inconsistent preferences. This inconsistency raises concerns about the reliability of self-generated preference data, hinders overall alignment performance, and highlights the need for further research to ensure reliable and coherent alignment with human preferences. To address this limitation, we propose Self-Consistent Internal Rewards (SCIR), a novel framework designed to enhance consistency among internal reward models during training. In each training step, we collect preference predictions from multiple pre-defined internal reward models and enforce consistency and confidence through an inconsistency penalty mechanism, thereby improving the reliability of these internal reward models. We selectively use data with consistent predictions for preference optimization, ensuring the quality of the preference data. By employing self-consistent internal rewards, our method significantly improves the alignment performance and reward modeling capability of LLMs, outperforming baseline methods by a notable margin.

The costly and time-consuming annotation process to produce large training sets for modelling semantic LiDAR segmentation methods has motivated the development of semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods. However, such SSL approaches often concentrate on employing consistency learning only for individual LiDAR representations. This narrow focus results in limited perturbations that generally fail to enable effective consistency learning. Additionally, these SSL approaches employ contrastive learning based on the sampling from a limited set of positive and negative embedding samples. This paper introduces a novel semi-supervised LiDAR semantic segmentation framework called ItTakesTwo (IT2). IT2 is designed to ensure consistent predictions from peer LiDAR representations, thereby improving the perturbation effectiveness in consistency learning. Furthermore, our contrastive learning employs informative samples drawn from a distribution of positive and negative embeddings learned from the entire training set. Results on public benchmarks show that our approach achieves remarkable improvements over the previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in the field. The code is available at: https://github.com/yyliu01/IT2.

Online video segmentation methods excel at handling long sequences and capturing gradual changes, making them ideal for real-world applications. However, achieving temporally consistent predictions remains a challenge, especially with gradual accumulation of noise or drift in on-line propagation, abrupt occlusions and scene transitions. This paper introduces Local2Global, an online framework, for video instance segmentation, exhibiting state-of-the-art performance with simple baseline and training purely in online fashion. Leveraging the DETR-based query propagation framework, we introduce two novel sets of queries:(1) local queries that capture initial object-specific spatial features from each frame and (2) global queries containing past spatio-temporal representations. We propose the L2G-aligner, a novel lightweight transformer decoder, to facilitate an early alignment between local and global queries. This alignment allows our model to effectively utilize current frame information while maintaining temporal consistency, producing a smooth transition between frames. Furthermore, L2G-aligner is integrated within the segmentation model, without relying on additional complex heuristics, or memory mechanisms. Extensive experiments across various challenging VIS and VPS datasets showcase the superiority of our method with simple online training, surpassing current benchmarks without bells and rings. For instance, we achieve 54.3 and 49.4 AP on Youtube-VIS-19/-21 datasets and 37.0 AP on OVIS dataset respectively withthe ResNet-50 backbone.

Conventional semi-supervised learning (SSL) ideally assumes that labeled and unlabeled data share an identical class distribution, however in practice, this assumption is easily violated, as unlabeled data often includes unknown class data, i.e., outliers. The outliers are treated as noise, considerably degrading the performance of SSL models. To address this drawback, we propose a novel framework, Diversify and Conquer (DAC), to enhance SSL robustness in the context of open-set semi-supervised learning. In particular, we note that existing open-set SSL methods rely on prediction discrepancies between inliers and outliers from a single model trained on labeled data. This approach can be easily failed when the labeled data is insufficient, leading to performance degradation that is worse than naive SSL that do not account for outliers. In contrast, our approach exploits prediction disagreements among multiple models that are differently biased towards the unlabeled distribution. By leveraging the discrepancies arising from training on unlabeled data, our method enables robust outlier detection even when the labeled data is underspecified. Our key contribution is constructing a collection of differently biased models through a single training process. By encouraging divergent heads to be differently biased towards outliers while making consistent predictions for inliers, we exploit the disagreement among these heads as a measure to identify unknown concepts. Our code is available at https://github.com/heejokong/DivCon.

Human-Object Interaction detection is a holistic visual recognition task that entails object detection as well as interaction classification. Previous works of HOI detection has been addressed by the various compositions of subset predictions, e.g., Image -> HO -> I, Image -> HI -> O. Recently, transformer based architecture for HOI has emerged, which directly predicts the HOI triplets in an end-to-end fashion (Image -> HOI). Motivated by various inference paths for HOI detection, we propose cross-path consistency learning (CPC), which is a novel end-to-end learning strategy to improve HOI detection for transformers by leveraging augmented decoding paths. CPC learning enforces all the possible predictions from permuted inference sequences to be consistent. This simple scheme makes the model learn consistent representations, thereby improving generalization without increasing model capacity. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and we achieved significant improvement on V-COCO and HICO-DET compared to the baseline models. Our code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/CPChoi.

Domain generalization is the task of learning models that generalize to unseen target domains. We propose a simple yet effective method for domain generalization, named cross-domain ensemble distillation (XDED), that learns domain-invariant features while encouraging the model to converge to flat minima, which recently turned out to be a sufficient condition for domain generalization. To this end, our method generates an ensemble of the output logits from training data with the same label but from different domains and then penalizes each output for the mismatch with the ensemble. Also, we present a de-stylization technique that standardizes features to encourage the model to produce style-consistent predictions even in an arbitrary target domain. Our method greatly improves generalization capability in public benchmarks for cross-domain image classification, cross-dataset person re-ID, and cross-dataset semantic segmentation. Moreover, we show that models learned by our method are robust against adversarial attacks and image corruptions.

Transparent objects remain notoriously hard for perception systems: refraction, reflection and transmission break the assumptions behind stereo, ToF and purely discriminative monocular depth, causing holes and temporally unstable estimates. Our key observation is that modern video diffusion models already synthesize convincing transparent phenomena, suggesting they have internalized the optical rules. We build TransPhy3D, a synthetic video corpus of transparent/reflective scenes: 11k sequences rendered with Blender/Cycles. Scenes are assembled from a curated bank of category-rich static assets and shape-rich procedural assets paired with glass/plastic/metal materials. We render RGB + depth + normals with physically based ray tracing and OptiX denoising. Starting from a large video diffusion model, we learn a video-to-video translator for depth (and normals) via lightweight LoRA adapters. During training we concatenate RGB and (noisy) depth latents in the DiT backbone and co-train on TransPhy3D and existing frame-wise synthetic datasets, yielding temporally consistent predictions for arbitrary-length input videos. The resulting model, DKT, achieves zero-shot SOTA on real and synthetic video benchmarks involving transparency: ClearPose, DREDS (CatKnown/CatNovel), and TransPhy3D-Test. It improves accuracy and temporal consistency over strong image/video baselines, and a normal variant sets the best video normal estimation results on ClearPose. A compact 1.3B version runs at ~0.17 s/frame. Integrated into a grasping stack, DKT's depth boosts success rates across translucent, reflective and diffuse surfaces, outperforming prior estimators. Together, these results support a broader claim: "Diffusion knows transparency." Generative video priors can be repurposed, efficiently and label-free, into robust, temporally coherent perception for challenging real-world manipulation.

Recent interest in point cloud analysis has led rapid progress in designing deep learning methods for 3D models. However, state-of-the-art models are not robust to rotations, which remains an unknown prior to real applications and harms the model performance. In this work, we introduce a novel Patch-wise Rotation-invariant network (PaRot), which achieves rotation invariance via feature disentanglement and produces consistent predictions for samples with arbitrary rotations. Specifically, we design a siamese training module which disentangles rotation invariance and equivariance from patches defined over different scales, e.g., the local geometry and global shape, via a pair of rotations. However, our disentangled invariant feature loses the intrinsic pose information of each patch. To solve this problem, we propose a rotation-invariant geometric relation to restore the relative pose with equivariant information for patches defined over different scales. Utilising the pose information, we propose a hierarchical module which implements intra-scale and inter-scale feature aggregation for 3D shape learning. Moreover, we introduce a pose-aware feature propagation process with the rotation-invariant relative pose information embedded. Experiments show that our disentanglement module extracts high-quality rotation-robust features and the proposed lightweight model achieves competitive results in rotated 3D object classification and part segmentation tasks. Our project page is released at: https://patchrot.github.io/.

Pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) have shown promising zero-shot generalization in many downstream tasks with properly designed text prompts. Instead of relying on hand-engineered prompts, recent works learn prompts using the training data from downstream tasks. While effective, training on domain-specific data reduces a model's generalization capability to unseen new domains. In this work, we propose test-time prompt tuning (TPT), a method that can learn adaptive prompts on the fly with a single test sample. For image classification, TPT optimizes the prompt by minimizing the entropy with confidence selection so that the model has consistent predictions across different augmented views of each test sample. In evaluating generalization to natural distribution shifts, TPT improves the zero-shot top-1 accuracy of CLIP by 3.6% on average, surpassing previous prompt tuning approaches that require additional task-specific training data. In evaluating cross-dataset generalization with unseen categories, TPT performs on par with the state-of-the-art approaches that use additional training data. Project page: https://azshue.github.io/TPT.

Sparsely activated models (SAMs), such as Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), can easily scale to have outrageously large amounts of parameters without significant increase in computational cost. However, SAMs are reported to be parameter inefficient such that larger models do not always lead to better performance. While most on-going research focuses on improving SAMs models by exploring methods of routing inputs to experts, our analysis reveals that such research might not lead to the solution we expect, i.e., the commonly-used routing methods based on gating mechanisms do not work better than randomly routing inputs to experts. In this paper, we propose a new expert-based model, THOR (Transformer witH StOchastic ExpeRts). Unlike classic expert-based models, such as the Switch Transformer, experts in THOR are randomly activated for each input during training and inference. THOR models are trained using a consistency regularized loss, where experts learn not only from training data but also from other experts as teachers, such that all the experts make consistent predictions. We validate the effectiveness of THOR on machine translation tasks. Results show that THOR models are more parameter efficient in that they significantly outperform the Transformer and MoE models across various settings. For example, in multilingual translation, THOR outperforms the Switch Transformer by 2 BLEU scores, and obtains the same BLEU score as that of a state-of-the-art MoE model that is 18 times larger. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/microsoft/Stochastic-Mixture-of-Experts.

Monocular 3D human pose estimation remains a challenging task due to inherent depth ambiguities and occlusions. Compared to traditional methods based on Transformers or Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), recent diffusion-based approaches have shown superior performance, leveraging their probabilistic nature and high-fidelity generation capabilities. However, these methods often fail to account for the spatial and temporal correlations across predicted frames, resulting in limited temporal consistency and inferior accuracy in predicted 3D pose sequences. To address these shortcomings, this paper proposes StarPose, an autoregressive diffusion framework that effectively incorporates historical 3D pose predictions and spatial-temporal physical guidance to significantly enhance both the accuracy and temporal coherence of pose predictions. Unlike existing approaches, StarPose models the 2D-to-3D pose mapping as an autoregressive diffusion process. By synergically integrating previously predicted 3D poses with 2D pose inputs via a Historical Pose Integration Module (HPIM), the framework generates rich and informative historical pose embeddings that guide subsequent denoising steps, ensuring temporally consistent predictions. In addition, a fully plug-and-play Spatial-Temporal Physical Guidance (STPG) mechanism is tailored to refine the denoising process in an iterative manner, which further enforces spatial anatomical plausibility and temporal motion dynamics, rendering robust and realistic pose estimates. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that StarPose outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior accuracy and temporal consistency in 3D human pose estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/wileychan/StarPose.

Shift equivariance is a fundamental principle that governs how we perceive the world - our recognition of an object remains invariant with respect to shifts. Transformers have gained immense popularity due to their effectiveness in both language and vision tasks. While the self-attention operator in vision transformers (ViT) is permutation-equivariant and thus shift-equivariant, patch embedding, positional encoding, and subsampled attention in ViT variants can disrupt this property, resulting in inconsistent predictions even under small shift perturbations. Although there is a growing trend in incorporating the inductive bias of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) into vision transformers, it does not fully address the issue. We propose an adaptive polyphase anchoring algorithm that can be seamlessly integrated into vision transformer models to ensure shift-equivariance in patch embedding and subsampled attention modules, such as window attention and global subsampled attention. Furthermore, we utilize depth-wise convolution to encode positional information. Our algorithms enable ViT, and its variants such as Twins to achieve 100% consistency with respect to input shift, demonstrate robustness to cropping, flipping, and affine transformations, and maintain consistent predictions even when the original models lose 20 percentage points on average when shifted by just a few pixels with Twins' accuracy dropping from 80.57% to 62.40%.

Trajectory prediction has been a crucial task in building a reliable autonomous driving system by anticipating possible dangers. One key issue is to generate consistent trajectory predictions without colliding. To overcome the challenge, we propose an efficient masked autoencoder for trajectory prediction (Traj-MAE) that better represents the complicated behaviors of agents in the driving environment. Specifically, our Traj-MAE employs diverse masking strategies to pre-train the trajectory encoder and map encoder, allowing for the capture of social and temporal information among agents while leveraging the effect of environment from multiple granularities. To address the catastrophic forgetting problem that arises when pre-training the network with multiple masking strategies, we introduce a continual pre-training framework, which can help Traj-MAE learn valuable and diverse information from various strategies efficiently. Our experimental results in both multi-agent and single-agent settings demonstrate that Traj-MAE achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods and significantly outperforms our baseline model.

Unsupervised learning for geometric perception (depth, optical flow, etc.) is of great interest to autonomous systems. Recent works on unsupervised learning have made considerable progress on perceiving geometry; however, they usually ignore the coherence of objects and perform poorly under scenarios with dark and noisy environments. In contrast, supervised learning algorithms, which are robust, require large labeled geometric dataset. This paper introduces SIGNet, a novel framework that provides robust geometry perception without requiring geometrically informative labels. Specifically, SIGNet integrates semantic information to make depth and flow predictions consistent with objects and robust to low lighting conditions. SIGNet is shown to improve upon the state-of-the-art unsupervised learning for depth prediction by 30% (in squared relative error). In particular, SIGNet improves the dynamic object class performance by 39% in depth prediction and 29% in flow prediction. Our code will be made available at https://github.com/mengyuest/SIGNet

Recent research on texture synthesis for 3D shapes benefits a lot from dramatically developed 2D text-to-image diffusion models, including inpainting-based and optimization-based approaches. However, these methods ignore the modal gap between the 2D diffusion model and 3D objects, which primarily render 3D objects into 2D images and texture each image separately. In this paper, we revisit the texture synthesis and propose a Variance alignment based 3D-2D Collaborative Denoising framework, dubbed VCD-Texture, to address these issues. Formally, we first unify both 2D and 3D latent feature learning in diffusion self-attention modules with re-projected 3D attention receptive fields. Subsequently, the denoised multi-view 2D latent features are aggregated into 3D space and then rasterized back to formulate more consistent 2D predictions. However, the rasterization process suffers from an intractable variance bias, which is theoretically addressed by the proposed variance alignment, achieving high-fidelity texture synthesis. Moreover, we present an inpainting refinement to further improve the details with conflicting regions. Notably, there is not a publicly available benchmark to evaluate texture synthesis, which hinders its development. Thus we construct a new evaluation set built upon three open-source 3D datasets and propose to use four metrics to thoroughly validate the texturing performance. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that VCD-Texture achieves superior performance against other counterparts.

The radial gradient of gas-phase metallicity is a powerful probe of the chemical and structural evolution of star-forming galaxies, closely tied to disk formation and gas kinematics in the early universe. We present spatially resolved chemical and dynamical properties for a sample of 25 galaxies at 0.5 lesssim z lesssim 1.7 from the \msasd survey. These innovative observations provide 3D spectroscopy of galaxies at a spatial resolution approaching JWST's diffraction limit and a high spectral resolution of Rsimeq2700. The metallicity gradients measured in our galaxy sample range from -0.03 to 0.02 dex~kpc^{-1}. Most galaxies exhibit negative or flat radial gradients, indicating lower metallicity in the outskirts or uniform metallicity throughout the entire galaxy. We confirm a tight relationship between stellar mass and metallicity gradient at zsim1 with small intrinsic scatter of 0.02 dex~kpc^{-1}. Our results indicate that metallicity gradients become increasingly negative as stellar mass increases, likely because the more massive galaxies tend to be more ``disky". This relationship is consistent with the predictions from cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations with strong stellar feedback. This work presents the effort to harness the multiplexing capability of JWST NIRSpec/MSA in slit-stepping mode to map the chemical and kinematic profiles of high-redshift galaxies in large samples and at high spatial and spectral resolution.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in performing complex tasks. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been effective in aligning LLMs with human preferences, it is susceptible to spurious correlations in reward modeling. Consequently, it often introduces biases-such as length bias, sycophancy, conceptual bias, and discrimination that hinder the model's ability to capture true causal relationships. To address this, we propose a novel causal reward modeling approach that integrates causal inference to mitigate these spurious correlations. Our method enforces counterfactual invariance, ensuring reward predictions remain consistent when irrelevant variables are altered. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our approach mitigates various types of spurious correlations effectively, resulting in more reliable and fair alignment of LLMs with human preferences. As a drop-in enhancement to the existing RLHF workflow, our causal reward modeling provides a practical way to improve the trustworthiness and fairness of LLM finetuning.

We investigate the signatures of Fermi liquid formation in the N=4 super Yang-Mills theory coupled to fundamental hypermultiplet at nonvanishing chemical potential for the global U(1) vector symmetry. At strong 't Hooft coupling the system can be analyzed in terms of the D7 brane dynamics in AdS_5 x S^5 background. The phases with vanishing and finite charge density are separated at zero temperature by a quantum phase transition. In case of vanishing hypermultiplet mass, Karch, Son and Starinets discovered a gapless excitation whose speed equals the speed of sound. We find that this zero sound mode persists to all values of the hypermultiplet mass, and its speed vanishes at the point of phase transition. The value of critical exponent and the ratio of the velocities of zero and first sounds are consistent with the predictions of Landau Fermi liquid theory at strong coupling.

As general purpose vision models get increasingly effective at a wide set of tasks, it is imperative that they be consistent across the tasks they support. Inconsistent AI models are considered brittle and untrustworthy by human users and are more challenging to incorporate into larger systems that take dependencies on their outputs. Measuring consistency between very heterogeneous tasks that might include outputs in different modalities is challenging since it is difficult to determine if the predictions are consistent with one another. As a solution, we introduce a benchmark dataset, COCOCON, where we use contrast sets created by modifying test instances for multiple tasks in small but semantically meaningful ways to change the gold label, and outline metrics for measuring if a model is consistent by ranking the original and perturbed instances across tasks. We find that state-of-the-art systems suffer from a surprisingly high degree of inconsistent behavior across tasks, especially for more heterogeneous tasks. Finally, we propose using a rank correlation-based auxiliary objective computed over large automatically created cross-task contrast sets to improve the multi-task consistency of large unified models, while retaining their original accuracy on downstream tasks. Project website available at https://adymaharana.github.io/cococon/

Densely annotating LiDAR point clouds is costly, which restrains the scalability of fully-supervised learning methods. In this work, we study the underexplored semi-supervised learning (SSL) in LiDAR segmentation. Our core idea is to leverage the strong spatial cues of LiDAR point clouds to better exploit unlabeled data. We propose LaserMix to mix laser beams from different LiDAR scans, and then encourage the model to make consistent and confident predictions before and after mixing. Our framework has three appealing properties: 1) Generic: LaserMix is agnostic to LiDAR representations (e.g., range view and voxel), and hence our SSL framework can be universally applied. 2) Statistically grounded: We provide a detailed analysis to theoretically explain the applicability of the proposed framework. 3) Effective: Comprehensive experimental analysis on popular LiDAR segmentation datasets (nuScenes, SemanticKITTI, and ScribbleKITTI) demonstrates our effectiveness and superiority. Notably, we achieve competitive results over fully-supervised counterparts with 2x to 5x fewer labels and improve the supervised-only baseline significantly by 10.8% on average. We hope this concise yet high-performing framework could facilitate future research in semi-supervised LiDAR segmentation. Code is publicly available.

Tracing the water snowline in low-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) is important because dust grain growth is promoted and the chemical composition varies at the water snowline, which influences planet formation and its properties. In protostellar envelopes, the water snowline can be estimated as a function of luminosity using a relation derived from radiative transfer models, and these predictions are consistent with observations. However, accurately estimating the water snowline in protoplanetary disks requires new relations that account for the disk structure. We present the relations between luminosity and water snowline using the dust continuum radiative transfer models with various density structures. We adopt two-dimensional density structures for an envelope-only model (Model E), an envelope+disk+cavity model (Model E+D), and a protoplanetary disk model (Model PPD). The relations between the water snowline, where T_dust = 100 K, and the total luminosity, ranging 0.1-1,000 solar luminosity, are well fitted by a power-law relation, R_snow=a * (L/L_solar)^p au. The factor a decreases with increasing disk density, while the power index p has values around 0.5 in all models. As the disk becomes denser, the water snowline forms at smaller radii even at the same luminosity, since dense dust hinders photon propagation. We also explore the effect of viscous heating on the water snowline. In Model PPD with viscous heating, the water snowline shifts outward by a few au up to 15 au, increasing the factor a and decreasing the power index p. In Model E+D with lower disk mass, the effect of viscous heating is negligible, indicating that the disk mass controls the effect. The discrepancy between our models and direct observations provides insights into the recent outburst event and the presence of a disk structure in low-mass YSOs.

Tabular biomedical data poses challenges in machine learning because it is often high-dimensional and typically low-sample-size (HDLSS). Previous research has attempted to address these challenges via local feature selection, but existing approaches often fail to achieve optimal performance due to their limitation in identifying globally important features and their susceptibility to the co-adaptation problem. In this paper, we propose ProtoGate, a prototype-based neural model for feature selection on HDLSS data. ProtoGate first selects instance-wise features via adaptively balancing global and local feature selection. Furthermore, ProtoGate employs a non-parametric prototype-based prediction mechanism to tackle the co-adaptation problem, ensuring the feature selection results and predictions are consistent with underlying data clusters. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate the performance and interpretability of ProtoGate on synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that ProtoGate generally outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy by a clear margin while providing high-fidelity feature selection and explainable predictions. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/ProtoGate.

In this study, we dive deep into the inconsistency of pseudo targets in semi-supervised object detection (SSOD). Our core observation is that the oscillating pseudo-targets undermine the training of an accurate detector. It injects noise into the student's training, leading to severe overfitting problems. Therefore, we propose a systematic solution, termed ConsistentTeacher, to reduce the inconsistency. First, adaptive anchor assignment~(ASA) substitutes the static IoU-based strategy, which enables the student network to be resistant to noisy pseudo-bounding boxes. Then we calibrate the subtask predictions by designing a 3D feature alignment module~(FAM-3D). It allows each classification feature to adaptively query the optimal feature vector for the regression task at arbitrary scales and locations. Lastly, a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) dynamically revises the score threshold of pseudo-bboxes, which stabilizes the number of ground truths at an early stage and remedies the unreliable supervision signal during training. ConsistentTeacher provides strong results on a large range of SSOD evaluations. It achieves 40.0 mAP with ResNet-50 backbone given only 10% of annotated MS-COCO data, which surpasses previous baselines using pseudo labels by around 3 mAP. When trained on fully annotated MS-COCO with additional unlabeled data, the performance further increases to 47.7 mAP. Our code is available at https://github.com/Adamdad/ConsistentTeacher.

To generate accurate videos, algorithms have to understand the spatial and temporal dependencies in the world. Current algorithms enable accurate predictions over short horizons but tend to suffer from temporal inconsistencies. When generated content goes out of view and is later revisited, the model invents different content instead. Despite this severe limitation, no established benchmarks on complex data exist for rigorously evaluating video generation with long temporal dependencies. In this paper, we curate 3 challenging video datasets with long-range dependencies by rendering walks through 3D scenes of procedural mazes, Minecraft worlds, and indoor scans. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of current models and observe their limitations in temporal consistency. Moreover, we introduce the Temporally Consistent Transformer (TECO), a generative model that substantially improves long-term consistency while also reducing sampling time. By compressing its input sequence into fewer embeddings, applying a temporal transformer, and expanding back using a spatial MaskGit, TECO outperforms existing models across many metrics. Videos are available on the website: https://wilson1yan.github.io/teco

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Large-scale vision foundation models such as Segment Anything (SAM) demonstrate impressive performance in zero-shot image segmentation at multiple levels of granularity. However, these zero-shot predictions are rarely 3D-consistent. As the camera viewpoint changes in a scene, so do the segmentation predictions, as well as the characterizations of "coarse" or "fine" granularity. In this work, we address the challenging task of lifting multi-granular and view-inconsistent image segmentations into a hierarchical and 3D-consistent representation. We learn a novel feature field within a Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) representing a 3D scene, whose segmentation structure can be revealed at different scales by simply using different thresholds on feature distance. Our key idea is to learn an ultrametric feature space, which unlike a Euclidean space, exhibits transitivity in distance-based grouping, naturally leading to a hierarchical clustering. Put together, our method takes view-inconsistent multi-granularity 2D segmentations as input and produces a hierarchy of 3D-consistent segmentations as output. We evaluate our method and several baselines on synthetic datasets with multi-view images and multi-granular segmentation, showcasing improved accuracy and viewpoint-consistency. We additionally provide qualitative examples of our model's 3D hierarchical segmentations in real world scenes. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/hardyho/ultrametric_feature_fields

We consider the problem of reconstructing a dynamic scene observed from a stereo camera. Most existing methods for depth from stereo treat different stereo frames independently, leading to temporally inconsistent depth predictions. Temporal consistency is especially important for immersive AR or VR scenarios, where flickering greatly diminishes the user experience. We propose DynamicStereo, a novel transformer-based architecture to estimate disparity for stereo videos. The network learns to pool information from neighboring frames to improve the temporal consistency of its predictions. Our architecture is designed to process stereo videos efficiently through divided attention layers. We also introduce Dynamic Replica, a new benchmark dataset containing synthetic videos of people and animals in scanned environments, which provides complementary training and evaluation data for dynamic stereo closer to real applications than existing datasets. Training with this dataset further improves the quality of predictions of our proposed DynamicStereo as well as prior methods. Finally, it acts as a benchmark for consistent stereo methods.

Panoptic segmentation of 3D scenes, involving the segmentation and classification of object instances in a dense 3D reconstruction of a scene, is a challenging problem, especially when relying solely on unposed 2D images. Existing approaches typically leverage off-the-shelf models to extract per-frame 2D panoptic segmentations, before optimizing an implicit geometric representation (often based on NeRF) to integrate and fuse the 2D predictions. We argue that relying on 2D panoptic segmentation for a problem inherently 3D and multi-view is likely suboptimal as it fails to leverage the full potential of spatial relationships across views. In addition to requiring camera parameters, these approaches also necessitate computationally expensive test-time optimization for each scene. Instead, in this work, we propose a unified and integrated approach PanSt3R, which eliminates the need for test-time optimization by jointly predicting 3D geometry and multi-view panoptic segmentation in a single forward pass. Our approach builds upon recent advances in 3D reconstruction, specifically upon MUSt3R, a scalable multi-view version of DUSt3R, and enhances it with semantic awareness and multi-view panoptic segmentation capabilities. We additionally revisit the standard post-processing mask merging procedure and introduce a more principled approach for multi-view segmentation. We also introduce a simple method for generating novel-view predictions based on the predictions of PanSt3R and vanilla 3DGS. Overall, the proposed PanSt3R is conceptually simple, yet fast and scalable, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmarks, while being orders of magnitude faster than existing methods.

Conventional production workflow of high-precision mesh assets necessitates a cumbersome and laborious process of manual sculpting by specialized 3D artists/modelers. The recent years have witnessed remarkable advances in AI-empowered 3D content creation for generating plausible structures and intricate appearances from images or text prompts. However, synthesizing realistic surface details still poses great challenges, and enhancing the geometry fidelity of existing lower-quality 3D meshes (instead of image/text-to-3D generation) remains an open problem. In this paper, we introduce SuperCarver, a 3D geometry super-resolution pipeline for supplementing texture-consistent surface details onto a given coarse mesh. We start by rendering the original textured mesh into the image domain from multiple viewpoints. To achieve detail boosting, we construct a deterministic prior-guided normal diffusion model, which is fine-tuned on a carefully curated dataset of paired detail-lacking and detail-rich normal map renderings. To update mesh surfaces from potentially imperfect normal map predictions, we design a noise-resistant inverse rendering scheme through deformable distance field. Experiments demonstrate that our SuperCarver is capable of generating realistic and expressive surface details depicted by the actual texture appearance, making it a powerful tool to both upgrade historical low-quality 3D assets and reduce the workload of sculpting high-poly meshes.

Sea ice is governed by highly complex, scale-invariant, and anisotropic processes that are challenging to represent in Earth system models. While advanced numerical models have improved our understanding of the sea-ice dynamics, their computational costs often limit their application in ensemble forecasting and climate simulations. Here, we introduce GenSIM, the first generative AI-based pan-Arctic model that predicts the evolution of all relevant key properties, including concentration, thickness, and drift, in a 12-hour window with improved accuracy over deterministic predictions and high computational efficiency, while remaining physically consistent. Trained on a long simulation from a state-of-the-art sea-ice--ocean system, GenSIM robustly reproduces statistics as observed in numerical models and observations, exhibiting brittle-like short-term dynamics while also depicting the long-term sea-ice decline. Driven solely by atmospheric forcings, we attribute GenSIM's emergent extrapolation capabilities to patterns that reflect the long-term impact of the ocean: it seemingly has learned an internal ocean emulator. This ability to infer slowly evolving climate-relevant dynamics from short-term predictions underlines the large potential of generative models to generalise for unseen climates and to encode hidden physics.

Text-based 2D diffusion models have demonstrated impressive capabilities in image generation and editing. Meanwhile, the 2D diffusion models also exhibit substantial potentials for 3D editing tasks. However, how to achieve consistent edits across multiple viewpoints remains a challenge. While the iterative dataset update method is capable of achieving global consistency, it suffers from slow convergence and over-smoothed textures. We propose SyncNoise, a novel geometry-guided multi-view consistent noise editing approach for high-fidelity 3D scene editing. SyncNoise synchronously edits multiple views with 2D diffusion models while enforcing multi-view noise predictions to be geometrically consistent, which ensures global consistency in both semantic structure and low-frequency appearance. To further enhance local consistency in high-frequency details, we set a group of anchor views and propagate them to their neighboring frames through cross-view reprojection. To improve the reliability of multi-view correspondences, we introduce depth supervision during training to enhance the reconstruction of precise geometries. Our method achieves high-quality 3D editing results respecting the textual instructions, especially in scenes with complex textures, by enhancing geometric consistency at the noise and pixel levels.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Property prediction accuracy has long been a key parameter of machine learning in materials informatics. Accordingly, advanced models showing state-of-the-art performance turn into highly parameterized black boxes missing interpretability. Here, we present an elegant way to make their reasoning transparent. Human-readable text-based descriptions automatically generated within a suite of open-source tools are proposed as materials representation. Transformer language models pretrained on 2 million peer-reviewed articles take as input well-known terms, e.g., chemical composition, crystal symmetry, and site geometry. Our approach outperforms crystal graph networks by classifying four out of five analyzed properties if one considers all available reference data. Moreover, fine-tuned text-based models show high accuracy in the ultra-small data limit. Explanations of their internal machinery are produced using local interpretability techniques and are faithful and consistent with domain expert rationales. This language-centric framework makes accurate property predictions accessible to people without artificial-intelligence expertise.

Despite remarkable advancements in video depth estimation, existing methods exhibit inherent limitations in achieving geometric fidelity through the affine-invariant predictions, limiting their applicability in reconstruction and other metrically grounded downstream tasks. We propose GeometryCrafter, a novel framework that recovers high-fidelity point map sequences with temporal coherence from open-world videos, enabling accurate 3D/4D reconstruction, camera parameter estimation, and other depth-based applications. At the core of our approach lies a point map Variational Autoencoder (VAE) that learns a latent space agnostic to video latent distributions for effective point map encoding and decoding. Leveraging the VAE, we train a video diffusion model to model the distribution of point map sequences conditioned on the input videos. Extensive evaluations on diverse datasets demonstrate that GeometryCrafter achieves state-of-the-art 3D accuracy, temporal consistency, and generalization capability.

Large language models demonstrate a remarkable capability for learning to solve new tasks from a few examples. The prompt template, or the way the input examples are formatted to obtain the prompt, is an important yet often overlooked aspect of in-context learning. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive study of the template format's influence on the in-context learning performance. We evaluate the impact of the prompt template across models (from 770M to 70B parameters) and 4 standard classification datasets. We show that a poor choice of the template can reduce the performance of the strongest models and inference methods to a random guess level. More importantly, the best templates do not transfer between different setups and even between models of the same family. Our findings show that the currently prevalent approach to evaluation, which ignores template selection, may give misleading results due to different templates in different works. As a first step towards mitigating this issue, we propose Template Ensembles that aggregate model predictions across several templates. This simple test-time augmentation boosts average performance while being robust to the choice of random set of templates.

Large language models (LLMs) show impressive capabilities, matching and sometimes exceeding human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment judgement in forecasting tasks. We evaluated the impact on forecasting accuracy of two GPT-4-Turbo assistants: one designed to provide high-quality advice ('superforecasting'), and the other designed to be overconfident and base-rate-neglecting. Participants (N = 991) had the option to consult their assigned LLM assistant throughout the study, in contrast to a control group that used a less advanced model (DaVinci-003) without direct forecasting support. Our preregistered analyses reveal that LLM augmentation significantly enhances forecasting accuracy by 23% across both types of assistants, compared to the control group. This improvement occurs despite the superforecasting assistant's higher accuracy in predictions, indicating the augmentation's benefit is not solely due to model prediction accuracy. Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 43%, compared with 28% for the biased assistant. We further examine whether LLM augmentation disproportionately benefits less skilled forecasters, degrades the wisdom-of-the-crowd by reducing prediction diversity, or varies in effectiveness with question difficulty. Our findings do not consistently support these hypotheses. Our results suggest that access to an LLM assistant, even a biased one, can be a helpful decision aid in cognitively demanding tasks where the answer is not known at the time of interaction.

In Video Object Detection (VID), a common practice is to leverage the rich temporal contexts from the video to enhance the object representations in each frame. Existing methods treat the temporal contexts obtained from different objects indiscriminately and ignore their different identities. While intuitively, aggregating local views of the same object in different frames may facilitate a better understanding of the object. Thus, in this paper, we aim to enable the model to focus on the identity-consistent temporal contexts of each object to obtain more comprehensive object representations and handle the rapid object appearance variations such as occlusion, motion blur, etc. However, realizing this goal on top of existing VID models faces low-efficiency problems due to their redundant region proposals and nonparallel frame-wise prediction manner. To aid this, we propose ClipVID, a VID model equipped with Identity-Consistent Aggregation (ICA) layers specifically designed for mining fine-grained and identity-consistent temporal contexts. It effectively reduces the redundancies through the set prediction strategy, making the ICA layers very efficient and further allowing us to design an architecture that makes parallel clip-wise predictions for the whole video clip. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our method: a state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance (84.7% mAP) on the ImageNet VID dataset while running at a speed about 7x faster (39.3 fps) than previous SOTAs.

Indoor scene synthesis involves automatically picking and placing furniture appropriately on a floor plan, so that the scene looks realistic and is functionally plausible. Such scenes can serve as homes for immersive 3D experiences, or be used to train embodied agents. Existing methods for this task rely on labeled categories of furniture, e.g. bed, chair or table, to generate contextually relevant combinations of furniture. Whether heuristic or learned, these methods ignore instance-level visual attributes of objects, and as a result may produce visually less coherent scenes. In this paper, we introduce an auto-regressive scene model which can output instance-level predictions, using general purpose image embedding based on CLIP. This allows us to learn visual correspondences such as matching color and style, and produce more functionally plausible and aesthetically pleasing scenes. Evaluated on the 3D-FRONT dataset, our model achieves SOTA results in scene synthesis and improves auto-completion metrics by over 50%. Moreover, our embedding-based approach enables zero-shot text-guided scene synthesis and editing, which easily generalizes to furniture not seen during training.

Paging is a prototypical problem in the area of online algorithms. It has also played a central role in the development of learning-augmented algorithms -- a recent line of research that aims to ameliorate the shortcomings of classical worst-case analysis by giving algorithms access to predictions. Such predictions can typically be generated using a machine learning approach, but they are inherently imperfect. Previous work on learning-augmented paging has investigated predictions on (i) when the current page will be requested again (reoccurrence predictions), (ii) the current state of the cache in an optimal algorithm (state predictions), (iii) all requests until the current page gets requested again, and (iv) the relative order in which pages are requested. We study learning-augmented paging from the new perspective of requiring the least possible amount of predicted information. More specifically, the predictions obtained alongside each page request are limited to one bit only. We consider two natural such setups: (i) discard predictions, in which the predicted bit denotes whether or not it is ``safe'' to evict this page, and (ii) phase predictions, where the bit denotes whether the current page will be requested in the next phase (for an appropriate partitioning of the input into phases). We develop algorithms for each of the two setups that satisfy all three desirable properties of learning-augmented algorithms -- that is, they are consistent, robust and smooth -- despite being limited to a one-bit prediction per request. We also present lower bounds establishing that our algorithms are essentially best possible.

Multi-view consistency remains a challenge for image diffusion models. Even within the Text-to-Texture problem, where perfect geometric correspondences are known a priori, many methods fail to yield aligned predictions across views, necessitating non-trivial fusion methods to incorporate the results onto the original mesh. We explore this issue for a Collaborative Control workflow specifically in PBR Text-to-Texture. Collaborative Control directly models PBR image probability distributions, including normal bump maps; to our knowledge, the only diffusion model to directly output full PBR stacks. We discuss the design decisions involved in making this model multi-view consistent, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in ablation studies, as well as practical applications.

JWST has now made it possible to probe the rest-frame optical line emission of high-redshift galaxies extending to z~9, and potentially beyond. To aid in the interpretation of these emerging constraints, in this work we explore predictions for [OIII] emission in high-redshift galaxies using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES). We produce predictions for the [OIII] luminosity function, its correlation with the UV luminosity, and the distribution of equivalent widths (EWs). We also explore how the [OIII] EW correlates with physical properties including specific star formation rate, metallicity, and dust attenuation. Our predictions are largely consistent with recent observational constraints on the luminosity function, average equivalent widths, and line ratios. However, they fail to reproduce the observed tail of high-EW sources and the number density of extreme line emitters. Possibilities to explain these discrepancies include an additional source of ionising photons and/or greater stochasticity in star formation in the model or photometric scatter and/or bias in the observations. With JWST now rapidly building larger samples and a wider range of emission lines the answer to this remaining discrepancy should be available imminently.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index d n_s/dln k = 0.0062 pm 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N_{rm eff} = 2.86 pm 0.13, which combined with external BBN data becomes N_{rm eff} = 2.89 pm 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (sum m_nu < 0.082 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N_{rm idr} < 0.134), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline LambdaCDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

We introduce HART, a unified framework for sparse-view human reconstruction. Given a small set of uncalibrated RGB images of a person as input, it outputs a watertight clothed mesh, the aligned SMPL-X body mesh, and a Gaussian-splat representation for photorealistic novel-view rendering. Prior methods for clothed human reconstruction either optimize parametric templates, which overlook loose garments and human-object interactions, or train implicit functions under simplified camera assumptions, limiting applicability in real scenes. In contrast, HART predicts per-pixel 3D point maps, normals, and body correspondences, and employs an occlusion-aware Poisson reconstruction to recover complete geometry, even in self-occluded regions. These predictions also align with a parametric SMPL-X body model, ensuring that reconstructed geometry remains consistent with human structure while capturing loose clothing and interactions. These human-aligned meshes initialize Gaussian splats to further enable sparse-view rendering. While trained on only 2.3K synthetic scans, HART achieves state-of-the-art results: Chamfer Distance improves by 18-23 percent for clothed-mesh reconstruction, PA-V2V drops by 6-27 percent for SMPL-X estimation, LPIPS decreases by 15-27 percent for novel-view synthesis on a wide range of datasets. These results suggest that feed-forward transformers can serve as a scalable model for robust human reconstruction in real-world settings. Code and models will be released.

Predicting the motion of other agents in a scene is highly relevant for autonomous driving, as it allows a self-driving car to anticipate. Inspired by the success of decoder-only models for language modeling, we propose DONUT, a Decoder-Only Network for Unrolling Trajectories. Unlike existing encoder-decoder forecasting models, we encode historical trajectories and predict future trajectories with a single autoregressive model. This allows the model to make iterative predictions in a consistent manner, and ensures that the model is always provided with up-to-date information, thereby enhancing performance. Furthermore, inspired by multi-token prediction for language modeling, we introduce an 'overprediction' strategy that gives the model the auxiliary task of predicting trajectories at longer temporal horizons. This allows the model to better anticipate the future and further improves performance. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our decoder-only approach outperforms the encoder-decoder baseline, and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the Argoverse 2 single-agent motion forecasting benchmark.

Embodied navigation in open, dynamic environments demands accurate foresight of how the world will evolve and how actions will unfold over time. We propose AstraNav-World, an end-to-end world model that jointly reasons about future visual states and action sequences within a unified probabilistic framework. Our framework integrates a diffusion-based video generator with a vision-language policy, enabling synchronized rollouts where predicted scenes and planned actions are updated simultaneously. Training optimizes two complementary objectives: generating action-conditioned multi-step visual predictions and deriving trajectories conditioned on those predicted visuals. This bidirectional constraint makes visual predictions executable and keeps decisions grounded in physically consistent, task-relevant futures, mitigating cumulative errors common in decoupled "envision-then-plan" pipelines. Experiments across diverse embodied navigation benchmarks show improved trajectory accuracy and higher success rates. Ablations confirm the necessity of tight vision-action coupling and unified training, with either branch removal degrading both prediction quality and policy reliability. In real-world testing, AstraNav-World demonstrated exceptional zero-shot capabilities, adapting to previously unseen scenarios without any real-world fine-tuning. These results suggest that AstraNav-World captures transferable spatial understanding and planning-relevant navigation dynamics, rather than merely overfitting to simulation-specific data distribution. Overall, by unifying foresight vision and control within a single generative model, we move closer to reliable, interpretable, and general-purpose embodied agents that operate robustly in open-ended real-world settings.

We construct an exact analytic solution of the revised small-x helicity evolution equations, where the contributions of the quark-to-gluon and gluon-to-quark transition operators were newly included. These evolution equations are written in the large-N_c&N_f limit and are double-logarithmic, resumming powers of alpha_sln^2(1/x). Here N_c and N_f are the numbers of quark colors and flavors, while alpha_s is the strong coupling constant and x is the Bjorken-x variable. Using our solution, we obtain analytic expressions for the flavor singlet quark and gluon helicity parton distribution functions (PDFs) and for the g_1 structure function as double-inverse Laplace transforms. We also extract analytic expressions for the four DGLAP polarized anomalous dimensions Delta gamma_{qq}, Delta gamma_{qG}, Delta gamma_{Gq}, and Delta gamma_{GG}: these expressions resum powers of alpha_s/omega^2 to all orders at large-N_c&N_f (with omega the Mellin moment variable). We extract the leading small-x growth of the helicity distributions, align \Delta\Sigma(x,Q^2) \sim \Delta G(x,Q^2)\sim g_1(x,Q^2) \sim \left(1{x}\right)^{\alpha_h}, align where the intercept alpha_h satisfies an algebraic equation. We determine alpha_h numerically for various values of N_c and N_f. We further obtain the explicit asymptotic expressions for the helicity distributions, which yield numerical values for the ratio of the gluon helicity PDF to the flavor singlet quark helicity PDF in the small-x asymptotic limit (for different N_f/N_c). We find that all our predictions for polarized DGLAP anomalous dimensions are fully consistent with the existing finite-order calculations. Similar to the large-N_c case, our intercept alpha_h exhibits a very slight disagreement with the predictions made within the infrared evolution equations framework.

Large vision Transformers (ViTs) driven by self-supervised pre-training mechanisms achieved unprecedented progress. Lightweight ViT models limited by the model capacity, however, benefit little from those pre-training mechanisms. Knowledge distillation defines a paradigm to transfer representations from large (teacher) models to small (student) ones. However, the conventional single-stage distillation easily gets stuck on task-specific transfer, failing to retain the task-agnostic knowledge crucial for model generalization. In this study, we propose generic-to-specific distillation (G2SD), to tap the potential of small ViT models under the supervision of large models pre-trained by masked autoencoders. In generic distillation, decoder of the small model is encouraged to align feature predictions with hidden representations of the large model, so that task-agnostic knowledge can be transferred. In specific distillation, predictions of the small model are constrained to be consistent with those of the large model, to transfer task-specific features which guarantee task performance. With G2SD, the vanilla ViT-Small model respectively achieves 98.7%, 98.1% and 99.3% the performance of its teacher (ViT-Base) for image classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation, setting a solid baseline for two-stage vision distillation. Code will be available at https://github.com/pengzhiliang/G2SD.

We present WeakSTIL, an interpretable two-stage weak label deep learning pipeline for scoring the percentage of stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTIL%) in H&E-stained whole-slide images (WSIs) of breast cancer tissue. The sTIL% score is a prognostic and predictive biomarker for many solid tumor types. However, due to the high labeling efforts and high intra- and interobserver variability within and between expert annotators, this biomarker is currently not used in routine clinical decision making. WeakSTIL compresses tiles of a WSI using a feature extractor pre-trained with self-supervised learning on unlabeled histopathology data and learns to predict precise sTIL% scores for each tile in the tumor bed by using a multiple instance learning regressor that only requires a weak WSI-level label. By requiring only a weak label, we overcome the large annotation efforts required to train currently existing TIL detection methods. We show that WeakSTIL is at least as good as other TIL detection methods when predicting the WSI-level sTIL% score, reaching a coefficient of determination of 0.45pm0.15 when compared to scores generated by an expert pathologist, and an AUC of 0.89pm0.05 when treating it as the clinically interesting sTIL-high vs sTIL-low classification task. Additionally, we show that the intermediate tile-level predictions of WeakSTIL are highly interpretable, which suggests that WeakSTIL pays attention to latent features related to the number of TILs and the tissue type. In the future, WeakSTIL may be used to provide consistent and interpretable sTIL% predictions to stratify breast cancer patients into targeted therapy arms.

Equivariant networks are specifically designed to ensure consistent behavior with respect to a set of input transformations, leading to higher sample efficiency and more accurate and robust predictions. However, redesigning each component of prevalent deep neural network architectures to achieve chosen equivariance is a difficult problem and can result in a computationally expensive network during both training and inference. A recently proposed alternative towards equivariance that removes the architectural constraints is to use a simple canonicalization network that transforms the input to a canonical form before feeding it to an unconstrained prediction network. We show here that this approach can effectively be used to make a large pretrained network equivariant. However, we observe that the produced canonical orientations can be misaligned with those of the training distribution, hindering performance. Using dataset-dependent priors to inform the canonicalization function, we are able to make large pretrained models equivariant while maintaining their performance. This significantly improves the robustness of these models to deterministic transformations of the data, such as rotations. We believe this equivariant adaptation of large pretrained models can help their domain-specific applications with known symmetry priors.

Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful, they are hardly applicable to deep models in practice, particularly because of their sensitivity to different model initialisation. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian perspective on the TDA task, where the learned model is treated as a Bayesian posterior and the TDA estimates as random variables. From this novel viewpoint, we observe that the influence of an individual training sample is often overshadowed by the noise stemming from model initialisation and SGD batch composition. Based on this observation, we argue that TDA can only be reliably used for explaining deep model predictions that are consistently influenced by certain training data, independent of other noise factors. Our experiments demonstrate the rarity of such noise-independent training-test data pairs but confirm their existence. We recommend that future researchers and practitioners trust TDA estimates only in such cases. Further, we find a disagreement between ground truth and estimated TDA distributions and encourage future work to study this gap. Code is provided at https://github.com/ElisaNguyen/bayesian-tda.

An increasing amount of applications rely on data-driven models that are deployed for perception tasks across a sequence of scenes. Due to the mismatch between training and deployment data, adapting the model on the new scenes is often crucial to obtain good performance. In this work, we study continual multi-scene adaptation for the task of semantic segmentation, assuming that no ground-truth labels are available during deployment and that performance on the previous scenes should be maintained. We propose training a Semantic-NeRF network for each scene by fusing the predictions of a segmentation model and then using the view-consistent rendered semantic labels as pseudo-labels to adapt the model. Through joint training with the segmentation model, the Semantic-NeRF model effectively enables 2D-3D knowledge transfer. Furthermore, due to its compact size, it can be stored in a long-term memory and subsequently used to render data from arbitrary viewpoints to reduce forgetting. We evaluate our approach on ScanNet, where we outperform both a voxel-based baseline and a state-of-the-art unsupervised domain adaptation method.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved excellent performance in various fields. However, DNNs' vulnerability to Adversarial Examples (AE) hinders their deployments to safety-critical applications. This paper presents a novel AE detection framework, named BEYOND, for trustworthy predictions. BEYOND performs the detection by distinguishing the AE's abnormal relation with its augmented versions, i.e. neighbors, from two prospects: representation similarity and label consistency. An off-the-shelf Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) model is used to extract the representation and predict the label for its highly informative representation capacity compared to supervised learning models. For clean samples, their representations and predictions are closely consistent with their neighbors, whereas those of AEs differ greatly. Furthermore, we explain this observation and show that by leveraging this discrepancy BEYOND can effectively detect AEs. We develop a rigorous justification for the effectiveness of BEYOND. Furthermore, as a plug-and-play model, BEYOND can easily cooperate with the Adversarial Trained Classifier (ATC), achieving the state-of-the-art (SOTA) robustness accuracy. Experimental results show that BEYOND outperforms baselines by a large margin, especially under adaptive attacks. Empowered by the robust relation net built on SSL, we found that BEYOND outperforms baselines in terms of both detection ability and speed. Our code will be publicly available.

Just like the previous generation of task-tuned models, large language models (LLMs) that are adapted to tasks via prompt-based methods like in-context-learning (ICL) perform well in some setups but not in others. This lack of consistency in prompt-based learning hints at a lack of robust generalisation. We here introduce the ICL consistency test -- a contribution to the GenBench collaborative benchmark task (CBT) -- which evaluates how consistent a model makes predictions across many different setups while using the same data. The test is based on different established natural language inference tasks. We provide preprocessed data constituting 96 different 'setups' and a metric that estimates model consistency across these setups. The metric is provided on a fine-grained level to understand what properties of a setup render predictions unstable and on an aggregated level to compare overall model consistency. We conduct an empirical analysis of eight state-of-the-art models, and our consistency metric reveals how all tested LLMs lack robust generalisation.

Spatio-temporal video grounding (STVG) aims at localizing the spatio-temporal tube of a video, as specified by the input text query. In this paper, we utilize multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to explore a zero-shot solution in STVG. We reveal two key insights about MLLMs: (1) MLLMs tend to dynamically assign special tokens, referred to as grounding tokens, for grounding the text query; and (2) MLLMs often suffer from suboptimal grounding due to the inability to fully integrate the cues in the text query (e.g., attributes, actions) for inference. Based on these insights, we propose a MLLM-based zero-shot framework for STVG, which includes novel decomposed spatio-temporal highlighting (DSTH) and temporal-augmented assembling (TAS) strategies to unleash the reasoning ability of MLLMs. The DSTH strategy first decouples the original query into attribute and action sub-queries for inquiring the existence of the target both spatially and temporally. It then uses a novel logit-guided re-attention (LRA) module to learn latent variables as spatial and temporal prompts, by regularizing token predictions for each sub-query. These prompts highlight attribute and action cues, respectively, directing the model's attention to reliable spatial and temporal related visual regions. In addition, as the spatial grounding by the attribute sub-query should be temporally consistent, we introduce the TAS strategy to assemble the predictions using the original video frames and the temporal-augmented frames as inputs to help improve temporal consistency. We evaluate our method on various MLLMs, and show that it outperforms SOTA methods on three common STVG benchmarks. The code will be available at https://github.com/zaiquanyang/LLaVA_Next_STVG.

Phishing attacks remain one of the most prevalent and persistent cybersecurity threat with attackers continuously evolving and intensifying tactics to evade the general detection system. Despite significant advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning, faithfully reproducing the interpretable reasoning with classification and explainability that underpin phishing judgments remains challenging. Due to recent advancement in Natural Language Processing, Large Language Models (LLMs) show a promising direction and potential for improving domain specific phishing classification tasks. However, enhancing the reliability and robustness of classification models requires not only accurate predictions from LLMs but also consistent and trustworthy explanations aligning with those predictions. Therefore, a key question remains: can LLMs not only classify phishing emails accurately but also generate explanations that are reliably aligned with their predictions and internally self-consistent? To answer these questions, we have fine-tuned transformer based models, including BERT, Llama models, and Wizard, to improve domain relevance and make them more tailored to phishing specific distinctions, using Binary Sequence Classification, Contrastive Learning (CL) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). To that end, we examined their performance in phishing classification and explainability by applying the ConsistenCy measure based on SHAPley values (CC SHAP), which measures prediction explanation token alignment to test the model's internal faithfulness and consistency and uncover the rationale behind its predictions and reasoning. Overall, our findings show that Llama models exhibit stronger prediction explanation token alignment with higher CC SHAP scores despite lacking reliable decision making accuracy, whereas Wizard achieves better prediction accuracy but lower CC SHAP scores.

Tracking by detection has been the prevailing paradigm in the field of Multi-object Tracking (MOT). These methods typically rely on the Kalman Filter to estimate the future locations of objects, assuming linear object motion. However, they fall short when tracking objects exhibiting nonlinear and diverse motion in scenarios like dancing and sports. In addition, there has been limited focus on utilizing learning-based motion predictors in MOT. To address these challenges, we resort to exploring data-driven motion prediction methods. Inspired by the great expectation of state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, in long-term sequence modeling with near-linear complexity, we introduce a Mamba-based motion model named Mamba moTion Predictor (MTP). MTP is designed to model the complex motion patterns of objects like dancers and athletes. Specifically, MTP takes the spatial-temporal location dynamics of objects as input, captures the motion pattern using a bi-Mamba encoding layer, and predicts the next motion. In real-world scenarios, objects may be missed due to occlusion or motion blur, leading to premature termination of their trajectories. To tackle this challenge, we further expand the application of MTP. We employ it in an autoregressive way to compensate for missing observations by utilizing its own predictions as inputs, thereby contributing to more consistent trajectories. Our proposed tracker, MambaTrack, demonstrates advanced performance on benchmarks such as Dancetrack and SportsMOT, which are characterized by complex motion and severe occlusion.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

3D scene reconstruction is a long-standing vision task. Existing approaches can be categorized into geometry-based and learning-based methods. The former leverages multi-view geometry but can face catastrophic failures due to the reliance on accurate pixel correspondence across views. The latter was proffered to mitigate these issues by learning 2D or 3D representation directly. However, without a large-scale video or 3D training data, it can hardly generalize to diverse real-world scenarios due to the presence of tens of millions or even billions of optimization parameters in the deep network. Recently, robust monocular depth estimation models trained with large-scale datasets have been proven to possess weak 3D geometry prior, but they are insufficient for reconstruction due to the unknown camera parameters, the affine-invariant property, and inter-frame inconsistency. Here, we propose a novel test-time optimization approach that can transfer the robustness of affine-invariant depth models such as LeReS to challenging diverse scenes while ensuring inter-frame consistency, with only dozens of parameters to optimize per video frame. Specifically, our approach involves freezing the pre-trained affine-invariant depth model's depth predictions, rectifying them by optimizing the unknown scale-shift values with a geometric consistency alignment module, and employing the resulting scale-consistent depth maps to robustly obtain camera poses and achieve dense scene reconstruction, even in low-texture regions. Experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art cross-dataset reconstruction on five zero-shot testing datasets.

The Shapley value is one of the most widely used measures of feature importance partly as it measures a feature's average effect on a model's prediction. We introduce joint Shapley values, which directly extend Shapley's axioms and intuitions: joint Shapley values measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction. We prove the uniqueness of joint Shapley values, for any order of explanation. Results for games show that joint Shapley values present different insights from existing interaction indices, which assess the effect of a feature within a set of features. The joint Shapley values provide intuitive results in ML attribution problems. With binary features, we present a presence-adjusted global value that is more consistent with local intuitions than the usual approach.

We propose a keypoint-based object-level SLAM framework that can provide globally consistent 6DoF pose estimates for symmetric and asymmetric objects alike. To the best of our knowledge, our system is among the first to utilize the camera pose information from SLAM to provide prior knowledge for tracking keypoints on symmetric objects -- ensuring that new measurements are consistent with the current 3D scene. Moreover, our semantic keypoint network is trained to predict the Gaussian covariance for the keypoints that captures the true error of the prediction, and thus is not only useful as a weight for the residuals in the system's optimization problems, but also as a means to detect harmful statistical outliers without choosing a manual threshold. Experiments show that our method provides competitive performance to the state of the art in 6DoF object pose estimation, and at a real-time speed. Our code, pre-trained models, and keypoint labels are available https://github.com/rpng/suo_slam.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) generate text through iterative denoising, yet current decoding strategies discard rich intermediate predictions in favor of the final output. Our work here reveals a critical phenomenon, temporal oscillation, where correct answers often emerge in the middle process, but are overwritten in later denoising steps. To address this issue, we introduce two complementary methods that exploit temporal consistency: 1) Temporal Self-Consistency Voting, a training-free, test-time decoding strategy that aggregates predictions across denoising steps to select the most consistent output; and 2) a post-training method termed Temporal Consistency Reinforcement, which uses Temporal Semantic Entropy (TSE), a measure of semantic stability across intermediate predictions, as a reward signal to encourage stable generations. Empirical results across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Using the negative TSE reward alone, we observe a remarkable average improvement of 24.7% on the Countdown dataset over an existing dLLM. Combined with the accuracy reward, we achieve absolute gains of 2.0% on GSM8K, 4.3% on MATH500, 6.6% on SVAMP, and 25.3% on Countdown, respectively. Our findings underscore the untapped potential of temporal dynamics in dLLMs and offer two simple yet effective tools to harness them.

Single image depth estimation is a foundational task in computer vision and generative modeling. However, prevailing depth estimation models grapple with accommodating the increasing resolutions commonplace in today's consumer cameras and devices. Existing high-resolution strategies show promise, but they often face limitations, ranging from error propagation to the loss of high-frequency details. We present PatchFusion, a novel tile-based framework with three key components to improve the current state of the art: (1) A patch-wise fusion network that fuses a globally-consistent coarse prediction with finer, inconsistent tiled predictions via high-level feature guidance, (2) A Global-to-Local (G2L) module that adds vital context to the fusion network, discarding the need for patch selection heuristics, and (3) A Consistency-Aware Training (CAT) and Inference (CAI) approach, emphasizing patch overlap consistency and thereby eradicating the necessity for post-processing. Experiments on UnrealStereo4K, MVS-Synth, and Middleburry 2014 demonstrate that our framework can generate high-resolution depth maps with intricate details. PatchFusion is independent of the base model for depth estimation. Notably, our framework built on top of SOTA ZoeDepth brings improvements for a total of 17.3% and 29.4% in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) on UnrealStereo4K and MVS-Synth, respectively.

Open-vocabulary panoptic reconstruction is a challenging task for simultaneous scene reconstruction and understanding. Recently, methods have been proposed for 3D scene understanding based on Gaussian splatting. However, these methods are multi-staged, suffering from the accumulated errors and the dependence of hand-designed components. To streamline the pipeline and achieve global optimization, we propose PanopticSplatting, an end-to-end system for open-vocabulary panoptic reconstruction. Our method introduces query-guided Gaussian segmentation with local cross attention, lifting 2D instance masks without cross-frame association in an end-to-end way. The local cross attention within view frustum effectively reduces the training memory, making our model more accessible to large scenes with more Gaussians and objects. In addition, to address the challenge of noisy labels in 2D pseudo masks, we propose label blending to promote consistent 3D segmentation with less noisy floaters, as well as label warping on 2D predictions which enhances multi-view coherence and segmentation accuracy. Our method demonstrates strong performances in 3D scene panoptic reconstruction on the ScanNet-V2 and ScanNet++ datasets, compared with both NeRF-based and Gaussian-based panoptic reconstruction methods. Moreover, PanopticSplatting can be easily generalized to numerous variants of Gaussian splatting, and we demonstrate its robustness on different Gaussian base models.

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods remain scarce. In this study, we introduce a novel deep learning flood detection model that leverages the cloud-penetrating capabilities of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imagery, enabling consistent flood extent mapping in any weather condition. By applying this model to nearly 10 years of SAR data, we create a unique, longitudinal global flood extent dataset with predictions unaffected by cloud coverage, offering comprehensive and consistent insights into historically flood-prone areas over the past decade. We use our model predictions to identify historically flood-prone areas in Ethiopia and demonstrate real-time disaster response capabilities during the May 2024 floods in Kenya. Additionally, our longitudinal analysis reveals potential increasing trends in global flood extent over time, although further validation is required to explore links to climate change. To maximize impact, we provide public access to both our model predictions and a code repository, empowering researchers and practitioners worldwide to advance flood monitoring and enhance disaster response strategies.

Ensuring logical consistency in predictions is a crucial yet overlooked aspect in multi-attribute classification. We explore the potential reasons for this oversight and introduce two pressing challenges to the field: 1) How can we ensure that a model, when trained with data checked for logical consistency, yields predictions that are logically consistent? 2) How can we achieve the same with data that hasn't undergone logical consistency checks? Minimizing manual effort is also essential for enhancing automation. To address these challenges, we introduce two datasets, FH41K and CelebA-logic, and propose LogicNet, an adversarial training framework that learns the logical relationships between attributes. Accuracy of LogicNet surpasses that of the next-best approach by 23.05%, 9.96%, and 1.71% on FH37K, FH41K, and CelebA-logic, respectively. In real-world case analysis, our approach can achieve a reduction of more than 50% in the average number of failed cases compared to other methods.

Explainable AI (XAI) is the study on how humans can be able to understand the cause of a model's prediction. In this work, the problem of interest is Scene Text Recognition (STR) Explainability, using XAI to understand the cause of an STR model's prediction. Recent XAI literatures on STR only provide a simple analysis and do not fully explore other XAI methods. In this study, we specifically work on data explainability frameworks, called attribution-based methods, that explain the important parts of an input data in deep learning models. However, integrating them into STR produces inconsistent and ineffective explanations, because they only explain the model in the global context. To solve this problem, we propose a new method, STRExp, to take into consideration the local explanations, i.e. the individual character prediction explanations. This is then benchmarked across different attribution-based methods on different STR datasets and evaluated across different STR models.

We propose Panoptic Lifting, a novel approach for learning panoptic 3D volumetric representations from images of in-the-wild scenes. Once trained, our model can render color images together with 3D-consistent panoptic segmentation from novel viewpoints. Unlike existing approaches which use 3D input directly or indirectly, our method requires only machine-generated 2D panoptic segmentation masks inferred from a pre-trained network. Our core contribution is a panoptic lifting scheme based on a neural field representation that generates a unified and multi-view consistent, 3D panoptic representation of the scene. To account for inconsistencies of 2D instance identifiers across views, we solve a linear assignment with a cost based on the model's current predictions and the machine-generated segmentation masks, thus enabling us to lift 2D instances to 3D in a consistent way. We further propose and ablate contributions that make our method more robust to noisy, machine-generated labels, including test-time augmentations for confidence estimates, segment consistency loss, bounded segmentation fields, and gradient stopping. Experimental results validate our approach on the challenging Hypersim, Replica, and ScanNet datasets, improving by 8.4, 13.8, and 10.6% in scene-level PQ over state of the art.

The Koopman operator provides a powerful framework for modeling dynamical systems and has attracted growing interest from the machine learning community. However, its infinite-dimensional nature makes identifying suitable finite-dimensional subspaces challenging, especially for deep architectures. We argue that these difficulties come from suboptimal representation learning, where latent variables fail to balance expressivity and simplicity. This tension is closely related to the information bottleneck (IB) dilemma: constructing compressed representations that are both compact and predictive. Rethinking Koopman learning through this lens, we demonstrate that latent mutual information promotes simplicity, yet an overemphasis on simplicity may cause latent space to collapse onto a few dominant modes. In contrast, expressiveness is sustained by the von Neumann entropy, which prevents such collapse and encourages mode diversity. This insight leads us to propose an information-theoretic Lagrangian formulation that explicitly balances this tradeoff. Furthermore, we propose a new algorithm based on the Lagrangian formulation that encourages both simplicity and expressiveness, leading to a stable and interpretable Koopman representation. Beyond quantitative evaluations, we further visualize the learned manifolds under our representations, observing empirical results consistent with our theoretical predictions. Finally, we validate our approach across a diverse range of dynamical systems, demonstrating improved performance over existing Koopman learning methods. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/Wenxuan52/InformationKoopman.

Does prompting a large language model (LLM) like GPT-3 with explanations improve in-context learning? We study this question on two NLP tasks that involve reasoning over text, namely question answering and natural language inference. We test the performance of four LLMs on three textual reasoning datasets using prompts that include explanations in multiple different styles. For these tasks, we find that including explanations in the prompts for OPT, GPT-3 (davinci), and InstructGPT (text-davinci-001) only yields small to moderate accuracy improvements over standard few-show learning. However, text-davinci-002 is able to benefit more substantially. We further show that explanations generated by the LLMs may not entail the models' predictions nor be factually grounded in the input, even on simple tasks with extractive explanations. However, these flawed explanations can still be useful as a way to verify LLMs' predictions post-hoc. Through analysis in our three settings, we show that explanations judged by humans to be good--logically consistent with the input and the prediction--more likely cooccur with accurate predictions. Following these observations, we train calibrators using automatically extracted scores that assess the reliability of explanations, allowing us to improve performance post-hoc across all of our datasets.

Recently, there is an emerging interest in adversarially training a classifier with a rejection option (also known as a selective classifier) for boosting adversarial robustness. While rejection can incur a cost in many applications, existing studies typically associate zero cost with rejecting perturbed inputs, which can result in the rejection of numerous slightly-perturbed inputs that could be correctly classified. In this work, we study adversarially-robust classification with rejection in the stratified rejection setting, where the rejection cost is modeled by rejection loss functions monotonically non-increasing in the perturbation magnitude. We theoretically analyze the stratified rejection setting and propose a novel defense method -- Adversarial Training with Consistent Prediction-based Rejection (CPR) -- for building a robust selective classifier. Experiments on image datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing methods under strong adaptive attacks. For instance, on CIFAR-10, CPR reduces the total robust loss (for different rejection losses) by at least 7.3% under both seen and unseen attacks.

Deep learning methods are highly accurate, yet their opaque decision process prevents them from earning full human trust. Concept-based models aim to address this issue by learning tasks based on a set of human-understandable concepts. However, state-of-the-art concept-based models rely on high-dimensional concept embedding representations which lack a clear semantic meaning, thus questioning the interpretability of their decision process. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Deep Concept Reasoner (DCR), the first interpretable concept-based model that builds upon concept embeddings. In DCR, neural networks do not make task predictions directly, but they build syntactic rule structures using concept embeddings. DCR then executes these rules on meaningful concept truth degrees to provide a final interpretable and semantically-consistent prediction in a differentiable manner. Our experiments show that DCR: (i) improves up to +25% w.r.t. state-of-the-art interpretable concept-based models on challenging benchmarks (ii) discovers meaningful logic rules matching known ground truths even in the absence of concept supervision during training, and (iii), facilitates the generation of counterfactual examples providing the learnt rules as guidance.

Recently, the visual generation ability by GPT-4o(mni) has been unlocked by OpenAI. It demonstrates a very remarkable generation capability with excellent multimodal condition understanding and varied task instructions. In this paper, we aim to explore the capabilities of GPT-4o across various tasks. Inspired by previous study, we constructed a task taxonomy along with a carefully curated set of test samples to conduct a comprehensive qualitative test. Benefiting from GPT-4o's powerful multimodal comprehension, its image-generation process demonstrates abilities surpassing those of traditional image-generation tasks. Thus, regarding the dimensions of model capabilities, we evaluate its performance across six task categories: traditional image generation tasks, discriminative tasks, knowledge-based generation, commonsense-based generation, spatially-aware image generation, and temporally-aware image generation. These tasks not only assess the quality and conditional alignment of the model's outputs but also probe deeper into GPT-4o's understanding of real-world concepts. Our results reveal that GPT-4o performs impressively well in general-purpose synthesis tasks, showing strong capabilities in text-to-image generation, visual stylization, and low-level image processing. However, significant limitations remain in its ability to perform precise spatial reasoning, instruction-grounded generation, and consistent temporal prediction. Furthermore, when faced with knowledge-intensive or domain-specific scenarios, such as scientific illustrations or mathematical plots, the model often exhibits hallucinations, factual errors, or structural inconsistencies. These findings suggest that while GPT-4o marks a substantial advancement in unified multimodal generation, there is still a long way to go before it can be reliably applied to professional or safety-critical domains.

Video large language models (Video-LLMs) can temporally ground language queries and retrieve video moments. Yet, such temporal comprehension capabilities are neither well-studied nor understood. So we conduct a study on prediction consistency -- a key indicator for robustness and trustworthiness of temporal grounding. After the model identifies an initial moment within the video content, we apply a series of probes to check if the model's responses align with this initial grounding as an indicator of reliable comprehension. Our results reveal that current Video-LLMs are sensitive to variations in video contents, language queries, and task settings, unveiling severe deficiencies in maintaining consistency. We further explore common prompting and instruction-tuning methods as potential solutions, but find that their improvements are often unstable. To that end, we propose event temporal verification tuning that explicitly accounts for consistency, and demonstrate significant improvements for both grounding and consistency. Our data and code will be available at https://github.com/minjoong507/Consistency-of-Video-LLM.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate convincing, fluent explanations. However, different from humans, they often generate inconsistent explanations on different inputs. For example, an LLM may generate the explanation "all birds can fly" when answering the question "Can sparrows fly?" but meanwhile answer "no" to the related question "Can penguins fly?". Explanations should be consistent across related examples so that they allow a human to simulate the LLM's decision process on multiple examples. We propose explanation-consistency finetuning (EC-finetuning), a method that adapts LLMs to generate more consistent natural-language explanations on related examples. EC-finetuning involves finetuning LLMs on synthetic data that is carefully constructed to contain consistent explanations. Across a variety of question-answering datasets in various domains, EC-finetuning yields a 10.0% relative explanation consistency improvement on four finetuning datasets, and generalizes to seven out-of-distribution datasets not seen during finetuning (+4.5% relative). Code is available at https://github.com/yandachen/explanation-consistency-finetuning .

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Large language models (LLMs) appear to bias their survey answers toward certain values. Nonetheless, some argue that LLMs are too inconsistent to simulate particular values. Are they? To answer, we first define value consistency as the similarity of answers across (1) paraphrases of one question, (2) related questions under one topic, (3) multiple-choice and open-ended use-cases of one question, and (4) multilingual translations of a question to English, Chinese, German, and Japanese. We apply these measures to a few large (>=34b), open LLMs including llama-3, as well as gpt-4o, using eight thousand questions spanning more than 300 topics. Unlike prior work, we find that models are relatively consistent across paraphrases, use-cases, translations, and within a topic. Still, some inconsistencies remain. Models are more consistent on uncontroversial topics (e.g., in the U.S., "Thanksgiving") than on controversial ones ("euthanasia"). Base models are both more consistent compared to fine-tuned models and are uniform in their consistency across topics, while fine-tuned models are more inconsistent about some topics ("euthanasia") than others ("women's rights") like our human subjects (n=165).

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Large Language Models (LLMs) changed the way we design and interact with software systems. Their ability to process and extract information from text has drastically improved productivity in a number of routine tasks. Developers that want to include these models in their software stack, however, face a dreadful challenge: debugging LLMs' inconsistent behavior across minor variations of the prompt. We therefore introduce two metrics for classification tasks, namely sensitivity and consistency, which are complementary to task performance. First, sensitivity measures changes of predictions across rephrasings of the prompt, and does not require access to ground truth labels. Instead, consistency measures how predictions vary across rephrasings for elements of the same class. We perform an empirical comparison of these metrics on text classification tasks, using them as guideline for understanding failure modes of the LLM. Our hope is that sensitivity and consistency will be helpful to guide prompt engineering and obtain LLMs that balance robustness with performance.

The 2D human pose estimation is a basic visual problem. However, supervised learning of a model requires massive labeled images, which is expensive and labor-intensive. In this paper, we aim at boosting the accuracy of a pose estimator by excavating extra unlabeled images in a semi-supervised learning (SSL) way. Most previous consistency-based SSL methods strive to constraint the model to predict consistent results for differently augmented images. Following this consensus, we revisit two core aspects including advanced data augmentation methods and concise consistency training frameworks. Specifically, we heuristically dig various collaborative combinations of existing data augmentations, and discover novel superior data augmentation schemes to more effectively add noise on unlabeled samples. They can compose easy-hard augmentation pairs with larger transformation difficulty gaps, which play a crucial role in consistency-based SSL. Moreover, we propose to strongly augment unlabeled images repeatedly with diverse augmentations, generate multi-path predictions sequentially, and optimize corresponding unsupervised consistency losses using one single network. This simple and compact design is on a par with previous methods consisting of dual or triple networks. Furthermore, it can also be integrated with multiple networks to produce better performance. Comparing to state-of-the-art SSL approaches, our method brings substantial improvements on public datasets. Code is released for academic use in https://github.com/hnuzhy/MultiAugs.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) promise more effective information extraction for review-based recommender systems, yet current methods still (i) mine free-form reviews without scope control, producing redundant and noisy representations, (ii) lack principled metrics that link LLM hallucination to downstream effectiveness, and (iii) leave the cost-quality trade-off across model scales largely unexplored. We address these gaps with the Hyper-Adaptive Dual-Stage Semantic Framework (HADSF), a two-stage approach that first induces a compact, corpus-level aspect vocabulary via adaptive selection and then performs vocabulary-guided, explicitly constrained extraction of structured aspect-opinion triples. To assess the fidelity of the resulting representations, we introduce Aspect Drift Rate (ADR) and Opinion Fidelity Rate (OFR) and empirically uncover a nonmonotonic relationship between hallucination severity and rating prediction error. Experiments on approximately 3 million reviews across LLMs spanning 1.5B-70B parameters show that, when integrated into standard rating predictors, HADSF yields consistent reductions in prediction error and enables smaller models to achieve competitive performance in representative deployment scenarios. We release code, data pipelines, and metric implementations to support reproducible research on hallucination-aware, LLM-enhanced explainable recommendation. Code is available at https://github.com/niez233/HADSF

The scarcity of manipulation data has motivated the use of pretrained large models from other modalities in robotics. In this work, we build upon autoregressive video generation models to propose a Physical Autoregressive Model (PAR), where physical tokens combine frames and actions to represent the joint evolution of the robot and its environment. PAR leverages the world knowledge embedded in video pretraining to understand physical dynamics without requiring action pretraining, enabling accurate video prediction and consistent action trajectories. It also adopts a DiT-based de-tokenizer to model frames and actions as continuous tokens, mitigating quantization errors and facilitating mutual enhancement. Furthermore, we incorporate a causal mask with inverse kinematics, parallel training, and the KV-cache mechanism to further improve performance and efficiency. Experiments on the ManiSkill benchmark show that PAR achieves a 100\% success rate on the PushCube task, matches the performance of action-pretrained baselines on other tasks, and accurately predicts future videos with tightly aligned action trajectories. These findings underscore a promising direction for robotic manipulation by transferring world knowledge from autoregressive video pretraining. The project page is here: https://hcplab-sysu.github.io/PhysicalAutoregressiveModel/

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Consistency models are a nascent family of generative models that can sample high quality data in one step without the need for adversarial training. Current consistency models achieve optimal sample quality by distilling from pre-trained diffusion models and employing learned metrics such as LPIPS. However, distillation limits the quality of consistency models to that of the pre-trained diffusion model, and LPIPS causes undesirable bias in evaluation. To tackle these challenges, we present improved techniques for consistency training, where consistency models learn directly from data without distillation. We delve into the theory behind consistency training and identify a previously overlooked flaw, which we address by eliminating Exponential Moving Average from the teacher consistency model. To replace learned metrics like LPIPS, we adopt Pseudo-Huber losses from robust statistics. Additionally, we introduce a lognormal noise schedule for the consistency training objective, and propose to double total discretization steps every set number of training iterations. Combined with better hyperparameter tuning, these modifications enable consistency models to achieve FID scores of 2.51 and 3.25 on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64times 64 respectively in a single sampling step. These scores mark a 3.5times and 4times improvement compared to prior consistency training approaches. Through two-step sampling, we further reduce FID scores to 2.24 and 2.77 on these two datasets, surpassing those obtained via distillation in both one-step and two-step settings, while narrowing the gap between consistency models and other state-of-the-art generative models.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Self-alignment, whereby models learn to improve themselves without human annotation, is a rapidly growing research area. However, existing techniques often fail to improve complex reasoning tasks due to the difficulty of assigning correct rewards. An orthogonal approach that is known to improve correctness is self-consistency, a method applied at inference time based on multiple sampling in order to find the most consistent answer. In this work, we extend the self-consistency concept to help train models. We thus introduce self-consistency preference optimization (ScPO), which iteratively trains consistent answers to be preferred over inconsistent ones on unsupervised new problems. We show ScPO leads to large improvements over conventional reward model training on reasoning tasks such as GSM8K and MATH, closing the gap with supervised training with gold answers or preferences, and that combining ScPO with standard supervised learning improves results even further. On ZebraLogic, ScPO finetunes Llama-3 8B to be superior to Llama-3 70B, Gemma-2 27B, and Claude-3 Haiku.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Time series modeling presents unique challenges due to autocorrelation in both historical data and future sequences. While current research predominantly addresses autocorrelation within historical data, the correlations among future labels are often overlooked. Specifically, modern forecasting models primarily adhere to the Direct Forecast (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts independently and disregarding label autocorrelation over time. In this work, we demonstrate that the learning objective of DF is biased in the presence of label autocorrelation. To address this issue, we propose the Frequency-enhanced Direct Forecast (FreDF), which mitigates label autocorrelation by learning to forecast in the frequency domain, thereby reducing estimation bias. Our experiments show that FreDF significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods and is compatible with a variety of forecast models. Code is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/FreDF.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

While large language models (LLMs) have proven to be effective on a large variety of tasks, they are also known to hallucinate information. To measure whether an LLM prefers factually consistent continuations of its input, we propose a new benchmark called FIB(Factual Inconsistency Benchmark) that focuses on the task of summarization. Specifically, our benchmark involves comparing the scores an LLM assigns to a factually consistent versus a factually inconsistent summary for an input news article. For factually consistent summaries, we use human-written reference summaries that we manually verify as factually consistent. To generate summaries that are factually inconsistent, we generate summaries from a suite of summarization models that we have manually annotated as factually inconsistent. A model's factual consistency is then measured according to its accuracy, i.e.\ the proportion of documents where it assigns a higher score to the factually consistent summary. To validate the usefulness of FIB, we evaluate 23 large language models ranging from 1B to 176B parameters from six different model families including BLOOM and OPT. We find that existing LLMs generally assign a higher score to factually consistent summaries than to factually inconsistent summaries. However, if the factually inconsistent summaries occur verbatim in the document, then LLMs assign a higher score to these factually inconsistent summaries than factually consistent summaries. We validate design choices in our benchmark including the scoring method and source of distractor summaries. Our code and benchmark data can be found at https://github.com/r-three/fib.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

In a legal system, judgment consistency is regarded as one of the most important manifestations of fairness. However, due to the complexity of factual elements that impact sentencing in real-world scenarios, few works have been done on quantitatively measuring judgment consistency towards real-world data. In this paper, we propose an evaluation metric for judgment inconsistency, Legal Inconsistency Coefficient (LInCo), which aims to evaluate inconsistency between data groups divided by specific features (e.g., gender, region, race). We propose to simulate judges from different groups with legal judgment prediction (LJP) models and measure the judicial inconsistency with the disagreement of the judgment results given by LJP models trained on different groups. Experimental results on the synthetic data verify the effectiveness of LInCo. We further employ LInCo to explore the inconsistency in real cases and come to the following observations: (1) Both regional and gender inconsistency exist in the legal system, but gender inconsistency is much less than regional inconsistency; (2) The level of regional inconsistency varies little across different time periods; (3) In general, judicial inconsistency is negatively correlated with the severity of the criminal charges. Besides, we use LInCo to evaluate the performance of several de-bias methods, such as adversarial learning, and find that these mechanisms can effectively help LJP models to avoid suffering from data bias.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

The transcriptional response to genetic perturbation reveals fundamental insights into complex cellular systems. While current approaches have made progress in predicting genetic perturbation responses, they provide limited biological understanding and cannot systematically refine existing knowledge. Overcoming these limitations requires an end-to-end integration of data-driven learning and existing knowledge. However, this integration is challenging due to inconsistencies between data and knowledge bases, such as noise, misannotation, and incompleteness. To address this challenge, we propose ALIGNED (Adaptive aLignment for Inconsistent Genetic kNowledgE and Data), a neuro-symbolic framework based on the Abductive Learning (ABL) paradigm. This end-to-end framework aligns neural and symbolic components and performs systematic knowledge refinement. We introduce a balanced consistency metric to evaluate the predictions' consistency against both data and knowledge. Our results show that ALIGNED outperforms state-of-the-art methods by achieving the highest balanced consistency, while also re-discovering biologically meaningful knowledge. Our work advances beyond existing methods to enable both the transparency and the evolution of mechanistic biological understanding.

Building world models that accurately and comprehensively represent the real world is the utmost aspiration for conditional image generative models as it would enable their use as world simulators. For these models to be successful world models, they should not only excel at image quality and prompt-image consistency but also ensure high representation diversity. However, current research in generative models mostly focuses on creative applications that are predominantly concerned with human preferences of image quality and aesthetics. We note that generative models have inference time mechanisms - or knobs - that allow the control of generation consistency, quality, and diversity. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art text-to-image and image-and-text-to-image models and their knobs to draw consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts that provide a holistic view on consistency-diversity-realism multi-objective. Our experiments suggest that realism and consistency can both be improved simultaneously; however there exists a clear tradeoff between realism/consistency and diversity. By looking at Pareto optimal points, we note that earlier models are better at representation diversity and worse in consistency/realism, and more recent models excel in consistency/realism while decreasing significantly the representation diversity. By computing Pareto fronts on a geodiverse dataset, we find that the first version of latent diffusion models tends to perform better than more recent models in all axes of evaluation, and there exist pronounced consistency-diversity-realism disparities between geographical regions. Overall, our analysis clearly shows that there is no best model and the choice of model should be determined by the downstream application. With this analysis, we invite the research community to consider Pareto fronts as an analytical tool to measure progress towards world models.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Despite the successful application of Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) for tasks such as dynamic node classification and link prediction, they still perform poorly on the task of dynamic node affinity prediction -- where the goal is to predict 'how much' two nodes will interact in the future. In fact, simple heuristic approaches such as persistent forecasts and moving averages over ground-truth labels significantly and consistently outperform TGNs. Building on this observation, we find that computing heuristics over messages is an equally competitive approach, outperforming TGN and all current temporal graph (TG) models on dynamic node affinity prediction. In this paper, we prove that no formulation of TGN can represent persistent forecasting or moving averages over messages, and propose to enhance the expressivity of TGNs by adding source-target identification to each interaction event message. We show that this modification is required to represent persistent forecasting, moving averages, and the broader class of autoregressive models over messages. Our proposed method, TGNv2, significantly outperforms TGN and all current TG models on all Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) dynamic node affinity prediction datasets.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Despite its simplicity and efficacy, the high token expenditure of self-consistency can limit its practical utility. Here we investigate if self-consistency can be made more token-efficient for long chain-of-thought reasoning tasks, while preserving its parallelism, through early hypothesis pruning. Concretely, we generate all solutions in parallel, but periodically prune intermediate hypotheses that are deemed unnecessary based on two lightweight indicators: (a) the model's own confidence in individual hypotheses, and (b) lexical coverage of all current hypotheses by candidate subsets that are under consideration for continued retention. We design a fast weighted set cover algorithm that utilizes the two indicators; our evaluation of five LLMs on three math benchmarks shows that this method can improve token efficiency for all models, by 10-35% in many cases.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior elicitation, likelihood misspecification, and computational burden. The martingale posterior (MGP, Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative, replacing prior-likelihood elicitation with a predictive rule - namely, a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions - for forward data generation. The utility of MGPs depends on the choice of predictive rule, yet the literature has offered few compelling examples. Foundation transformers are well-suited here, as their autoregressive generation mirrors this forward simulation and their general-purpose design enables rich predictive modeling. We introduce TabMGP, an MGP built on TabPFN, a transformer foundation model that is currently state-of-the-art for tabular data. TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms both existing MGP constructions and standard Bayes.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

High-quality 3D world models are pivotal for embodied intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), underpinning applications such as AR/VR content creation and robotic navigation. Despite the established strong imaginative priors, current video foundation models lack explicit 3D grounding capabilities, thus being limited in both spatial consistency and their utility for downstream 3D reasoning tasks. In this work, we present FantasyWorld, a geometry-enhanced framework that augments frozen video foundation models with a trainable geometric branch, enabling joint modeling of video latents and an implicit 3D field in a single forward pass. Our approach introduces cross-branch supervision, where geometry cues guide video generation and video priors regularize 3D prediction, thus yielding consistent and generalizable 3D-aware video representations. Notably, the resulting latents from the geometric branch can potentially serve as versatile representations for downstream 3D tasks such as novel view synthesis and navigation, without requiring per-scene optimization or fine-tuning. Extensive experiments show that FantasyWorld effectively bridges video imagination and 3D perception, outperforming recent geometry-consistent baselines in multi-view coherence and style consistency. Ablation studies further confirm that these gains stem from the unified backbone and cross-branch information exchange.