src/fundamental_analysis/decision_maker.py

"""
Investment Decision Maker
Main entry point: Input ticker → Output BUY/SELL/HOLD recommendation
Uses composite scoring based on institutional methodology
"""

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from typing import Dict, Tuple, Optional, List
from fundamental_analysis.calculator import calculate_metrics_for_ticker
from fundamental_analysis.sector_analyzer import SectorAnalyzer
import yfinance as yf
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')


class InvestmentDecision:
    """Make BUY/SELL/HOLD decisions based on comprehensive analysis"""
    
    # Scoring weights based on institutional methodology
    WEIGHTS = {
        'fcf_yield': 0.25,      # 25% - HIGHEST priority
        'roic': 0.25,           # 25% - Quality indicator
        'growth': 0.15,         # 15% - Growth metrics
        'valuation': 0.15,      # 15% - Valuation ratios
        'leverage': 0.10,       # 10% - Financial health
        'capital_allocation': 0.10  # 10% - Capital management
    }
    
    # Decision thresholds
    THRESHOLDS = {
        'buy': 0.35,      # Score >= 0.35 → BUY
        'sell': -0.10     # Score < -0.10 → SELL
    }
    
    def __init__(self, ticker: str, compare_to_sector: bool = True):
        """
        Initialize decision maker
        
        Args:
            ticker: Stock ticker symbol
            compare_to_sector: Whether to compare against sector peers
        """
        self.ticker = ticker.upper()
        self.compare_to_sector = compare_to_sector
        self.metrics_df = pd.DataFrame()
        self.metrics_dict = {}
        self.sector_comparison = pd.DataFrame()
        self.sector_percentiles = {}
        self.scores = {}
        self.final_score = 0.0
        self.recommendation = "HOLD"
        self.confidence = 0.0
        self.reasoning = []
        
    def analyze(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Perform complete analysis and generate recommendation
        
        Returns:
            Dictionary with recommendation and detailed analysis
        """
        print(f"\n{'='*80}")
        print(f"INVESTMENT ANALYSIS: {self.ticker}")
        print(f"{'='*80}\n")
        
        # Step 1: Calculate all metrics
        print("Step 1: Calculating financial metrics...")
        self.metrics_df, summary = calculate_metrics_for_ticker(self.ticker)
        
        if self.metrics_df.empty:
            return self._error_result("Failed to fetch data")
        
        # Convert metrics to dictionary for easier access
        self._build_metrics_dict()
        
        # Step 2: Get sector comparison
        if self.compare_to_sector:
            print("\nStep 2: Comparing to sector peers...")
            self._compare_to_sector()
        else:
            print("\nStep 2: Skipping sector comparison")
        
        # Step 3: Score each category
        print("\nStep 3: Scoring investment criteria...")
        self._score_all_categories()
        
        # Step 4: Calculate final score and recommendation
        print("\nStep 4: Generating recommendation...")
        self._calculate_final_score()
        self._determine_recommendation()
        
        # Step 5: Build reasoning
        self._build_reasoning()
        
        # Return complete analysis
        return self._build_result()
    
    def _build_metrics_dict(self):
        """Convert metrics DataFrame to dictionary for easier access"""
        for _, row in self.metrics_df.iterrows():
            if row['Status'] == 'Available':
                metric_name = row['Metric'].replace(' ', '_').replace('/', '_').replace('(', '').replace(')', '').replace('%', 'pct')
                self.metrics_dict[metric_name] = row['Value']
    
    def _get_metric(self, metric_name: str) -> Optional[float]:
        """Safely get metric value"""
        row = self.metrics_df[self.metrics_df['Metric'] == metric_name]
        if not row.empty and row.iloc[0]['Status'] == 'Available':
            return row.iloc[0]['Value']
        return None
    
    def _compare_to_sector(self):
        """Compare stock to sector peers"""
        try:
            # Get company info to determine sector
            stock = yf.Ticker(self.ticker)
            info = stock.info
            sector = info.get('sector', 'Unknown')
            
            if sector == 'Unknown':
                print("  ⚠ Could not determine sector, skipping comparison")
                return
            
            print(f"  Sector: {sector}")
            
            # Map yfinance sectors to our predefined sectors
            sector_mapping = {
                'Technology': 'Technology',
                'Financial Services': 'Financial',
                'Healthcare': 'Healthcare',
                'Consumer Cyclical': 'Consumer',
                'Consumer Defensive': 'Consumer',
                'Industrials': 'Industrial',
                'Energy': 'Energy',
                'Basic Materials': 'Materials',
                'Real Estate': 'Real Estate',
                'Communication Services': 'Communication'
            }
            
            mapped_sector = sector_mapping.get(sector)
            if not mapped_sector:
                print(f"  ⚠ Sector '{sector}' not in predefined list")
                return
            
            # Analyze sector with a subset of stocks (to avoid long wait)
            analyzer = SectorAnalyzer(mapped_sector)
            tickers = analyzer.get_sector_tickers()
            
            # Limit to 10 stocks for faster analysis
            if len(tickers) > 10:
                tickers = tickers[:10]
                print(f"  Analyzing {len(tickers)} peer stocks (limited sample)...")
            
            comparison_df = analyzer.calculate_sector_metrics(tickers)
            
            if not comparison_df.empty and self.ticker in comparison_df.index:
                self.sector_comparison = analyzer.compare_stock_to_peers(self.ticker, comparison_df)
                self.sector_percentiles = comparison_df.rank(pct=True).loc[self.ticker].to_dict()
                print(f"  ✓ Sector comparison complete")
            else:
                print(f"  ⚠ Could not compare to sector")
                
        except Exception as e:
            print(f"  ⚠ Sector comparison error: {str(e)}")
    
    def _score_all_categories(self):
        """Score each investment category"""
        self.scores['fcf_yield'] = self._score_fcf_yield()
        self.scores['roic'] = self._score_roic()
        self.scores['growth'] = self._score_growth()
        self.scores['valuation'] = self._score_valuation()
        self.scores['leverage'] = self._score_leverage()
        self.scores['capital_allocation'] = self._score_capital_allocation()
        
        # Print scores
        for category, score in self.scores.items():
            print(f"  {category.replace('_', ' ').title()}: {score:+.2f}")
    
    def _score_fcf_yield(self) -> float:
        """
        Score FCF Yield (HIGHEST PRIORITY - 25% weight)
        Threshold: >6% = BUY, 4-6% = HOLD, <3% = SELL
        """
        fcf_yield = self._get_metric('FCF Yield (Enterprise) %')
        
        if fcf_yield is None:
            return 0.0
        
        # Scoring rules
        if fcf_yield >= 6.0:
            score = 1.0  # Strong buy signal
        elif fcf_yield >= 4.0:
            score = 0.5  # Hold
        elif fcf_yield >= 3.0:
            score = 0.0  # Neutral
        else:
            score = -1.0  # Sell signal
        
        # Adjust based on sector percentile if available
        if 'FCF_Yield_%' in self.sector_percentiles:
            percentile = self.sector_percentiles['FCF_Yield_%']
            if percentile > 0.75:
                score += 0.3  # Top quartile bonus
            elif percentile < 0.25:
                score -= 0.3  # Bottom quartile penalty
        
        return np.clip(score, -1.0, 1.0)
    
    def _score_roic(self) -> float:
        """
        Score ROIC (VERY HIGH PRIORITY - 25% weight)
        Threshold: >15% = excellent, >10% = good, <10% = concern
        """
        roic = self._get_metric('Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) %')
        
        if roic is None:
            return 0.0
        
        # Scoring rules
        if roic >= 20.0:
            score = 1.0  # Exceptional
        elif roic >= 15.0:
            score = 0.7  # Excellent
        elif roic >= 10.0:
            score = 0.3  # Good
        elif roic >= 5.0:
            score = -0.3  # Mediocre
        else:
            score = -1.0  # Poor
        
        # Adjust based on sector percentile
        if 'ROIC_%' in self.sector_percentiles:
            percentile = self.sector_percentiles['ROIC_%']
            if percentile > 0.75:
                score += 0.2
            elif percentile < 0.25:
                score -= 0.2
        
        return np.clip(score, -1.0, 1.0)
    
    def _score_growth(self) -> float:
        """
        Score Growth Metrics (15% weight)
        Revenue growth, EPS growth
        """
        rev_growth = self._get_metric('Revenue Growth (YoY) %')
        eps_growth = self._get_metric('EPS Growth (YoY) %')
        
        if rev_growth is None and eps_growth is None:
            return 0.0
        
        scores = []
        
        # Revenue growth scoring
        if rev_growth is not None:
            if rev_growth >= 20.0:
                scores.append(1.0)
            elif rev_growth >= 10.0:
                scores.append(0.5)
            elif rev_growth >= 5.0:
                scores.append(0.2)
            elif rev_growth >= 0.0:
                scores.append(-0.2)
            else:
                scores.append(-1.0)  # Declining revenue
        
        # EPS growth scoring
        if eps_growth is not None:
            if eps_growth >= 20.0:
                scores.append(1.0)
            elif eps_growth >= 10.0:
                scores.append(0.5)
            elif eps_growth >= 5.0:
                scores.append(0.2)
            elif eps_growth >= 0.0:
                scores.append(-0.2)
            else:
                scores.append(-1.0)
        
        return np.clip(np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0, -1.0, 1.0)
    
    def _score_valuation(self) -> float:
        """
        Score Valuation Metrics (15% weight)
        P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA relative to sector
        """
        pe_ratio = self._get_metric('P/E Ratio (TTM)')
        peg_ratio = self._get_metric('PEG Ratio')
        ev_ebitda = self._get_metric('EV/EBITDA')
        
        scores = []
        
        # PEG ratio scoring (most important valuation metric)
        if peg_ratio is not None:
            if peg_ratio < 0.8:
                scores.append(1.0)  # Undervalued
            elif peg_ratio < 1.2:
                scores.append(0.3)  # Fair value
            elif peg_ratio < 1.5:
                scores.append(-0.3)  # Slightly expensive
            else:
                scores.append(-1.0)  # Overvalued
        
        # P/E relative to sector
        if 'PE_Ratio' in self.sector_percentiles:
            percentile = self.sector_percentiles['PE_Ratio']
            # Lower P/E is better (reverse percentile)
            if percentile < 0.33:
                scores.append(0.7)  # Cheap relative to sector
            elif percentile < 0.67:
                scores.append(0.0)  # Fair
            else:
                scores.append(-0.7)  # Expensive
        
        # EV/EBITDA relative to sector
        if 'EV_EBITDA' in self.sector_percentiles:
            percentile = self.sector_percentiles['EV_EBITDA']
            # Lower is better
            if percentile < 0.33:
                scores.append(0.5)
            elif percentile > 0.67:
                scores.append(-0.5)
        
        return np.clip(np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0, -1.0, 1.0)
    
    def _score_leverage(self) -> float:
        """
        Score Leverage/Financial Health (10% weight)
        Net Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage
        """
        net_debt_ebitda = self._get_metric('Net Debt / EBITDA')
        current_ratio = self._get_metric('Current Ratio')
        cash_conversion = self._get_metric('Cash Conversion Ratio')
        
        scores = []
        
        # Net Debt/EBITDA scoring
        if net_debt_ebitda is not None:
            if net_debt_ebitda < 1.0:
                scores.append(1.0)  # Very low leverage
            elif net_debt_ebitda < 2.0:
                scores.append(0.5)  # Moderate
            elif net_debt_ebitda < 3.0:
                scores.append(0.0)  # Acceptable
            elif net_debt_ebitda < 4.0:
                scores.append(-0.5)  # High
            else:
                scores.append(-1.0)  # Very high risk
        
        # Current ratio
        if current_ratio is not None:
            if current_ratio >= 2.0:
                scores.append(0.5)
            elif current_ratio >= 1.5:
                scores.append(0.2)
            elif current_ratio >= 1.0:
                scores.append(-0.2)
            else:
                scores.append(-0.5)
        
        # Cash conversion (quality of earnings)
        if cash_conversion is not None:
            if cash_conversion >= 1.2:
                scores.append(0.5)
            elif cash_conversion >= 1.0:
                scores.append(0.2)
            elif cash_conversion >= 0.8:
                scores.append(-0.2)
            else:
                scores.append(-0.5)  # Red flag
        
        return np.clip(np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0, -1.0, 1.0)
    
    def _score_capital_allocation(self) -> float:
        """
        Score Capital Allocation (10% weight)
        Dividends, buybacks, total payout ratio
        """
        payout_ratio = self._get_metric('Payout Ratio %')
        total_payout = self._get_metric('Total Payout Ratio %')
        roe = self._get_metric('Return on Equity (ROE) %')
        
        scores = []
        
        # Payout ratio - should be sustainable
        if payout_ratio is not None:
            if payout_ratio < 40.0:
                scores.append(0.5)  # Low, room to grow
            elif payout_ratio < 60.0:
                scores.append(0.3)  # Sustainable
            elif payout_ratio < 80.0:
                scores.append(-0.2)  # High
            else:
                scores.append(-0.5)  # Potentially unsustainable
        
        # Total payout (dividends + buybacks)
        if total_payout is not None and roe is not None:
            # Good capital allocation returns cash to shareholders while maintaining high ROE
            if roe > 15.0 and total_payout > 50.0:
                scores.append(0.5)  # Strong returns + returning cash
            elif roe > 15.0:
                scores.append(0.3)  # Strong returns, could return more
            elif total_payout > 50.0:
                scores.append(-0.3)  # Returning cash but weak returns
        
        return np.clip(np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0, -1.0, 1.0)
    
    def _calculate_final_score(self):
        """Calculate weighted final score"""
        self.final_score = sum(
            self.scores.get(category, 0.0) * weight 
            for category, weight in self.WEIGHTS.items()
        )
        
        # Calculate confidence based on data availability and sector comparison
        data_completeness = len([s for s in self.scores.values() if s != 0.0]) / len(self.scores)
        sector_bonus = 0.15 if not self.sector_comparison.empty else 0.0
        self.confidence = min(data_completeness + sector_bonus, 1.0)
    
    def _determine_recommendation(self):
        """Determine BUY/SELL/HOLD based on final score"""
        if self.final_score >= self.THRESHOLDS['buy']:
            self.recommendation = "BUY"
        elif self.final_score < self.THRESHOLDS['sell']:
            self.recommendation = "SELL"
        else:
            self.recommendation = "HOLD"
    
    def _build_reasoning(self):
        """Build human-readable reasoning for the recommendation"""
        self.reasoning = []
        
        # Overall assessment
        if self.final_score >= 0.5:
            self.reasoning.append("✓ Strong overall fundamentals")
        elif self.final_score >= 0.2:
            self.reasoning.append("✓ Positive fundamentals")
        elif self.final_score >= -0.2:
            self.reasoning.append("• Mixed fundamentals")
        else:
            self.reasoning.append("✗ Weak fundamentals")
        
        # FCF Yield
        fcf_yield = self._get_metric('FCF Yield (Enterprise) %')
        if fcf_yield:
            if fcf_yield >= 6.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✓ Excellent FCF yield: {fcf_yield:.2f}%")
            elif fcf_yield < 3.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✗ Low FCF yield: {fcf_yield:.2f}%")
        
        # ROIC
        roic = self._get_metric('Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) %')
        if roic:
            if roic >= 15.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✓ Strong ROIC: {roic:.2f}%")
            elif roic < 10.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✗ Weak ROIC: {roic:.2f}%")
        
        # Growth
        rev_growth = self._get_metric('Revenue Growth (YoY) %')
        if rev_growth:
            if rev_growth >= 15.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✓ Strong revenue growth: {rev_growth:.2f}%")
            elif rev_growth < 0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✗ Declining revenue: {rev_growth:.2f}%")
        
        # Valuation
        peg_ratio = self._get_metric('PEG Ratio')
        if peg_ratio:
            if peg_ratio < 0.8:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✓ Undervalued (PEG: {peg_ratio:.2f})")
            elif peg_ratio > 1.5:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✗ Overvalued (PEG: {peg_ratio:.2f})")
        
        # Leverage
        net_debt_ebitda = self._get_metric('Net Debt / EBITDA')
        if net_debt_ebitda is not None:
            if net_debt_ebitda < 1.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✓ Low leverage: {net_debt_ebitda:.2f}x")
            elif net_debt_ebitda > 3.0:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✗ High leverage: {net_debt_ebitda:.2f}x")
        
        # Sector comparison
        if 'ROIC_%' in self.sector_percentiles:
            roic_pct = self.sector_percentiles['ROIC_%']
            if roic_pct > 0.75:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✓ Top quartile ROIC vs peers (P{int(roic_pct*100)})")
            elif roic_pct < 0.25:
                self.reasoning.append(f"✗ Bottom quartile ROIC vs peers (P{int(roic_pct*100)})")
    
    def _build_result(self) -> Dict:
        """Build final result dictionary"""
        return {
            'ticker': self.ticker,
            'recommendation': self.recommendation,
            'final_score': self.final_score,
            'confidence': self.confidence,
            'category_scores': self.scores,
            'reasoning': self.reasoning,
            'key_metrics': {
                'FCF_Yield_%': self._get_metric('FCF Yield (Enterprise) %'),
                'ROIC_%': self._get_metric('Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) %'),
                'ROE_%': self._get_metric('Return on Equity (ROE) %'),
                'Revenue_Growth_%': self._get_metric('Revenue Growth (YoY) %'),
                'PEG_Ratio': self._get_metric('PEG Ratio'),
                'Net_Debt_EBITDA': self._get_metric('Net Debt / EBITDA'),
            },
            'sector_percentiles': self.sector_percentiles if self.sector_percentiles else None
        }
    
    def _error_result(self, error_message: str) -> Dict:
        """Return error result"""
        return {
            'ticker': self.ticker,
            'recommendation': 'ERROR',
            'error': error_message,
            'final_score': 0.0,
            'confidence': 0.0
        }
    
    def print_analysis(self, result: Dict):
        """Print formatted analysis report"""
        print(f"\n{'='*80}")
        print(f"INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION: {result['ticker']}")
        print(f"{'='*80}")
        
        if result['recommendation'] == 'ERROR':
            print(f"\n✗ ERROR: {result.get('error', 'Unknown error')}")
            return
        
        # Recommendation with color coding
        rec = result['recommendation']
        if rec == 'BUY':
            print(f"\n🟢 RECOMMENDATION: {rec} (Score: {result['final_score']:+.2f})")
        elif rec == 'SELL':
            print(f"\n🔴 RECOMMENDATION: {rec} (Score: {result['final_score']:+.2f})")
        else:
            print(f"\n🟡 RECOMMENDATION: {rec} (Score: {result['final_score']:+.2f})")
        
        print(f"Confidence: {result['confidence']:.0%}")
        
        # Category scores
        print(f"\n{'-'*80}")
        print("CATEGORY SCORES (weighted)")
        print(f"{'-'*80}")
        for category, score in result['category_scores'].items():
            weight = self.WEIGHTS[category]
            weighted_score = score * weight
            bar_length = int(abs(score) * 20)
            bar = '█' * bar_length
            print(f"{category.replace('_', ' ').title():25} {score:+.2f} ({weight:.0%}) → {weighted_score:+.3f}  {bar}")
        
        # Key metrics
        print(f"\n{'-'*80}")
        print("KEY METRICS")
        print(f"{'-'*80}")
        for metric, value in result['key_metrics'].items():
            if value is not None:
                print(f"{metric:30} {value:>12.2f}")
        
        # Reasoning
        print(f"\n{'-'*80}")
        print("INVESTMENT RATIONALE")
        print(f"{'-'*80}")
        for reason in result['reasoning']:
            print(f"  {reason}")
        
        print(f"\n{'='*80}\n")


def evaluate_stock(ticker: str, compare_to_sector: bool = True) -> Dict:
    """
    Main function to evaluate a stock and get recommendation
    
    Args:
        ticker: Stock ticker symbol
        compare_to_sector: Whether to compare to sector peers
    
    Returns:
        Dictionary with recommendation and analysis
    """
    decision = InvestmentDecision(ticker, compare_to_sector)
    result = decision.analyze()
    decision.print_analysis(result)
    return result


if __name__ == "__main__":
    # Test with sample tickers
    test_tickers = ['AAPL', 'GOOGL', 'MSFT']
    
    print("INVESTMENT DECISION MAKER TEST")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    results = []
    for ticker in test_tickers:
        result = evaluate_stock(ticker, compare_to_sector=False)  # Disable sector for speed
        results.append(result)
        
    # Summary comparison
    print("\n" + "=" * 80)
    print("SUMMARY COMPARISON")
    print("=" * 80)
    
    summary_df = pd.DataFrame([{
        'Ticker': r['ticker'],
        'Recommendation': r['recommendation'],
        'Score': r['final_score'],
        'Confidence': r['confidence'],
        'FCF Yield %': r['key_metrics']['FCF_Yield_%'],
        'ROIC %': r['key_metrics']['ROIC_%'],
        'PEG': r['key_metrics']['PEG_Ratio']
    } for r in results])
    
    print(summary_df.to_string(index=False))
    
    # Save results
    summary_df.to_csv('investment_recommendations.csv', index=False)
    print(f"\n✓ Results saved to investment_recommendations.csv")