Spaces:
Running
Running
| model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.505,0.42,0.6,0.004,-0.013,0.021 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.455,0.635,0.034,0.008,0.062 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.007,-0.04,0.054 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.71,0.625,0.79,0.046,0.021,0.071 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.058,0.036,0.081 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.09,0.054,0.127 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.196,0.146,0.244 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.91,0.85,0.97,0.237,0.191,0.286 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.308,0.239,0.377 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.232,0.188,0.277 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.376,0.322,0.43 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.338,0.294,0.388 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.391,0.338,0.446 | |
| TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.495,0.4,0.58,-0.004,-0.021,0.013 | |
| TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.03,0.007,0.051 | |
| TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.003,-0.045,0.052 | |
| TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.695,0.615,0.79,0.042,0.023,0.065 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.745,0.66,0.83,0.054,0.032,0.077 | |
| TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.775,0.695,0.85,0.087,0.048,0.126 | |
| TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.82,0.73,0.89,0.193,0.146,0.242 | |
| TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.234,0.189,0.282 | |
| TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.306,0.233,0.374 | |
| TiRex,AutoTheta,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.229,0.187,0.272 | |
| TiRex,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.374,0.321,0.429 | |
| TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.384 | |
| TiRex,Drift,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.388,0.335,0.443 | |
| Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.365,0.545,-0.035,-0.066,-0.008 | |
| Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.031,-0.054,-0.007 | |
| Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.65,-0.028,-0.083,0.024 | |
| Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.012,-0.012,0.036 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.685,0.024,-0.004,0.052 | |
| Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.575,0.75,0.058,0.011,0.103 | |
| Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.168,0.115,0.219 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.21,0.157,0.261 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.284,0.208,0.353 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.205,0.158,0.252 | |
| Toto-1.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.354,0.296,0.408 | |
| Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.315,0.266,0.365 | |
| Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.96,0.369,0.315,0.424 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.007,-0.057,0.038 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.003,-0.055,0.043 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.53,0.027,-0.024,0.076 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.039,-0.012,0.085 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.051,0.006,0.094 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.084,0.041,0.126 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.695,0.855,0.19,0.134,0.242 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.232,0.178,0.283 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.303,0.23,0.382 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.227,0.18,0.277 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.372,0.316,0.432 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.334,0.29,0.379 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.386,0.328,0.447 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.21,0.375,-0.048,-0.077,-0.021 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.305,0.21,0.385,-0.044,-0.069,-0.023 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.012,-0.038,0.012 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.041,-0.093,0.012 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.48,0.645,0.013,-0.011,0.036 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.57,0.76,0.047,0.005,0.087 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.157,0.105,0.208 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.2,0.148,0.254 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.275,0.196,0.35 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.196,0.147,0.243 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.346,0.29,0.403 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.307,0.258,0.357 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.361,0.303,0.417 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.061,-0.088,-0.037 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.255,0.17,0.34,-0.057,-0.083,-0.033 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.495,-0.025,-0.055,0.004 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.054,-0.104,-0.006 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.355,0.52,-0.013,-0.038,0.011 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.54,0.73,0.034,-0.006,0.071 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.147,0.096,0.198 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.19,0.137,0.242 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.266,0.19,0.341 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.185,0.139,0.232 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.338,0.28,0.394 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.298,0.252,0.345 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.353,0.296,0.41 | |
| Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.099,-0.145,-0.057 | |
| Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.225,0.15,0.305,-0.095,-0.144,-0.05 | |
| Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.335,0.25,0.425,-0.062,-0.115,-0.012 | |
| Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.092,-0.144,-0.042 | |
| Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.335,0.24,0.43,-0.049,-0.095,-0.005 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.365,0.27,0.46,-0.036,-0.076,0.006 | |
| Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.116,0.05,0.174 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.161,0.097,0.218 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.24,0.149,0.317 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.156,0.099,0.206 | |
| Sundial-Base,Naive,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.315,0.248,0.38 | |
| Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.273,0.225,0.319 | |
| Sundial-Base,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.33,0.261,0.398 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.244,-0.323,-0.171 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.27,-0.239,-0.319,-0.171 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.201,-0.28,-0.13 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.145,0.305,-0.235,-0.32,-0.155 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.117 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.172,-0.246,-0.107 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.132,-0.211,-0.052 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.051,0.02,0.086 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.785,0.7,0.86,0.14,0.071,0.209 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.045,0.009,0.078 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.224,0.169,0.277 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.9,0.177,0.138,0.221 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.242,0.192,0.293 | |
| AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.09,0.03,0.15,-0.31,-0.401,-0.236 | |
| AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.305,-0.393,-0.233 | |
| AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.266,-0.353,-0.187 | |
| AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.301,-0.395,-0.217 | |
| AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.251,-0.341,-0.173 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.235,-0.319,-0.159 | |
| AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.192,-0.278,-0.107 | |
| AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.054,-0.095,-0.02 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.555,0.46,0.655,0.093,0.015,0.175 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.006,-0.057,0.039 | |
| AutoARIMA,Naive,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.183,0.118,0.242 | |
| AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.735,0.875,0.133,0.09,0.178 | |
| AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.65,0.83,0.201,0.14,0.261 | |
| AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.09,0.22,-0.446,-0.605,-0.314 | |
| AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.44,-0.598,-0.303 | |
| AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.396,-0.547,-0.263 | |
| AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.436,-0.617,-0.299 | |
| AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.38,-0.538,-0.243 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.362,-0.518,-0.235 | |
| AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.315,-0.464,-0.175 | |
| AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.215,0.14,0.3,-0.162,-0.264,-0.077 | |
| AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.445,0.345,0.54,-0.103,-0.212,-0.015 | |
| AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.47,0.37,0.56,-0.11,-0.214,-0.027 | |
| AutoETS,Naive,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.098,0.018,0.177 | |
| AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.685,0.585,0.775,0.043,-0.061,0.128 | |
| AutoETS,Drift,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.119,0.042,0.194 | |
| AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.303,-0.383,-0.231 | |
| AutoTheta,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.297,-0.374,-0.23 | |
| AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.258,-0.337,-0.188 | |
| AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.294,-0.383,-0.22 | |
| AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.243,-0.32,-0.172 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.227,-0.302,-0.161 | |
| AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.185,-0.26,-0.11 | |
| AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.047,-0.085,-0.009 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.006,-0.041,0.054 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.53,0.44,0.63,0.099,0.026,0.177 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoTheta,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.188,0.138,0.239 | |
| AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.138,0.099,0.18 | |
| AutoTheta,Drift,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.206,0.158,0.26 | |
| Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.603,-0.754,-0.476 | |
| Naive,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.597,-0.75,-0.473 | |
| Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.549,-0.689,-0.421 | |
| Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.592,-0.761,-0.461 | |
| Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.53,-0.674,-0.408 | |
| Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.511,-0.649,-0.39 | |
| Naive,Sundial-Base,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.459,-0.613,-0.331 | |
| Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.289,-0.383,-0.203 | |
| Naive,AutoARIMA,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.223,-0.319,-0.134 | |
| Naive,AutoETS,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.109,-0.215,-0.018 | |
| Naive,AutoTheta,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.231,-0.314,-0.161 | |
| Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.475,0.39,0.565,-0.061,-0.146,0.017 | |
| Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.023,-0.005,0.048 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.511,-0.633,-0.417 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.623,-0.408 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.575,-0.362 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.501,-0.61,-0.409 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.442,-0.555,-0.347 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.424,-0.527,-0.336 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.375,-0.469,-0.29 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.1,0.23,-0.215,-0.283,-0.161 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.125,0.265,-0.153,-0.217,-0.099 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.315,0.225,0.415,-0.045,-0.147,0.057 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.16,-0.219,-0.11 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.525,0.435,0.61,0.058,-0.017,0.127 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.079,-0.001,0.153 | |
| Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.641,-0.804,-0.51 | |
| Drift,TiRex,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.635,-0.796,-0.504 | |
| Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.04,0.17,-0.585,-0.735,-0.459 | |
| Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.63,-0.807,-0.488 | |
| Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.566,-0.715,-0.435 | |
| Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.546,-0.695,-0.42 | |
| Drift,Sundial-Base,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.493,-0.66,-0.354 | |
| Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.32,-0.415,-0.238 | |
| Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.35,-0.252,-0.353,-0.163 | |
| Drift,AutoETS,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.135,-0.24,-0.044 | |
| Drift,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.26,-0.351,-0.188 | |
| Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.023,-0.051,0.005 | |
| Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.36,0.27,0.47,-0.086,-0.181,0.001 | |
| Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |