model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126
Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122
Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.119,0.084,0.156
Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.105,0.072,0.134
Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.136,0.105,0.17
Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18
Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.225,0.194,0.255
Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.38,0.324,0.431
Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.367,0.316,0.416
Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.5,0.684
Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.474,0.418,0.529
Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559
Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.652,0.603,0.693
Chronos-2,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.654,0.603,0.697
TiRex,Chronos-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.1,-0.144,-0.062
TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.555,0.455,0.65,-0.001,-0.02,0.017
TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.6,0.77,0.03,0.009,0.05
TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.016,-0.033,0.063
TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.03,0.073
TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083
TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.835,0.95,0.148,0.11,0.185
TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.318,0.262,0.374
TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.304,0.256,0.352
TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.558,0.449,0.655
TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.421,0.365,0.479
TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515
TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.617,0.565,0.663
TiRex,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.619,0.567,0.666
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.099,-0.139,-0.063
TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.445,0.35,0.545,0.001,-0.017,0.019
TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.475,0.655,0.031,0.006,0.057
TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.017,-0.031,0.062
TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.73,0.645,0.81,0.051,0.028,0.076
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.76,0.685,0.835,0.062,0.04,0.085
TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.845,0.96,0.148,0.114,0.183
TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.319,0.262,0.376
TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.304,0.255,0.357
TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.558,0.449,0.655
TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.422,0.362,0.483
TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.467,0.422,0.518
TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.617,0.564,0.664
TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.62,0.565,0.667
Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.134,-0.185,-0.092
Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.23,0.4,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009
Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.345,0.525,-0.032,-0.061,-0.006
Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.45,0.63,-0.015,-0.073,0.036
Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.02,-0.003,0.044
Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.52,0.695,0.032,0.003,0.061
Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.121,0.079,0.163
Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.297,0.235,0.356
Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.282,0.23,0.336
Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.545,0.433,0.645
Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.403,0.341,0.465
Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.397,0.501
Toto-1.0,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.605,0.55,0.652
Toto-1.0,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.607,0.551,0.656
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.117,-0.155,-0.078
TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.016,-0.067,0.032
TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.017,-0.066,0.03
TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.46,0.37,0.55,0.015,-0.037,0.068
TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.46,0.65,0.035,-0.017,0.084
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.046,0.0,0.092
TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.134,0.09,0.175
TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.795,0.715,0.875,0.307,0.247,0.365
TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.293,0.239,0.348
TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.554,0.442,0.654
TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.412,0.352,0.471
TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.935,0.995,0.458,0.412,0.506
TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.611,0.556,0.657
TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.98,0.613,0.557,0.661
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.158,-0.204,-0.118
Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.078,-0.031
Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.355,-0.054,-0.082,-0.029
Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.021,-0.046,0.003
Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.54,-0.036,-0.091,0.017
Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.505,0.67,0.012,-0.013,0.037
Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.865,0.79,0.93,0.103,0.062,0.14
Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.282,0.222,0.343
Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.267,0.214,0.322
Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.537,0.421,0.639
Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.391,0.33,0.454
Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.439,0.387,0.49
Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.541,0.645
Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.599,0.542,0.649
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129
Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.185,0.115,0.265,-0.065,-0.091,-0.041
Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.165,0.315,-0.066,-0.092,-0.042
Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.39,0.305,0.48,-0.033,-0.065,-0.003
Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.049,-0.101,-0.0
Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.41,0.33,0.495,-0.012,-0.038,0.013
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.785,0.705,0.865,0.092,0.051,0.128
Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.274,0.215,0.332
Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.258,0.207,0.31
Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.531,0.418,0.635
Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.384,0.323,0.446
Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482
Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.537,0.639
Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.594,0.539,0.643
Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.29,-0.343,-0.24
Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.05,0.165,-0.173,-0.226,-0.124
Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.095,0.04,0.155,-0.174,-0.223,-0.129
Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.138,-0.195,-0.085
Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.155,-0.212,-0.099
Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.135,0.07,0.21,-0.114,-0.163,-0.066
Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.215,0.135,0.295,-0.101,-0.147,-0.053
Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.2,0.124,0.268
Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.183,0.114,0.245
Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.486,0.353,0.603
Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.321,0.25,0.391
Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.374,0.322,0.43
Sundial-Base,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.55,0.489,0.605
Sundial-Base,Drift,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.553,0.487,0.611
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.613,-0.757,-0.479
Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.466,-0.598,-0.355
Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.468,-0.603,-0.355
Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.422,-0.552,-0.307
Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.205,0.125,0.285,-0.443,-0.575,-0.329
Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.393,-0.521,-0.285
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.377,-0.496,-0.274
Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.25,-0.366,-0.142
Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.41,0.6,-0.021,-0.061,0.02
Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.755,0.67,0.835,0.38,0.234,0.517
Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.151,0.111,0.194
Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.895,0.218,0.166,0.273
Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.438,0.386,0.484
Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.49
AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.58,-0.711,-0.461
AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.436,-0.543,-0.345
AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.438,-0.556,-0.342
AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.393,-0.505,-0.299
AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.414,-0.533,-0.315
AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.365,-0.476,-0.272
AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.348,-0.449,-0.261
AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.27,0.19,0.37,-0.224,-0.324,-0.129
AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.4,0.59,0.021,-0.021,0.058
AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.685,0.59,0.775,0.381,0.235,0.518
AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.169,0.119,0.218
AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.825,0.93,0.234,0.184,0.287
AutoARIMA,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.449,0.389,0.499
AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.453,0.393,0.505
AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.48,-2.169,-0.999
AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.261,-1.901,-0.816
AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-1.261,-1.898,-0.814
AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.198,-1.815,-0.764
AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.08,0.22,-1.242,-1.889,-0.793
AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.158,-1.773,-0.727
AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.133,-1.742,-0.717
AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.945,-1.517,-0.545
AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.245,0.165,0.33,-0.612,-1.072,-0.305
AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.315,0.225,0.41,-0.616,-1.074,-0.308
AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.57,0.47,0.67,-0.384,-0.762,-0.111
AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.535,0.715,-0.27,-0.651,-0.012
AutoETS,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.059,-0.228,0.255
AutoETS,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.062,-0.223,0.256
AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.901,-1.124,-0.718
AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.728,-0.919,-0.575
AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.73,-0.934,-0.567
AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.676,-0.87,-0.517
AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.701,-0.889,-0.542
AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.642,-0.83,-0.491
AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.622,-0.804,-0.477
AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.473,-0.641,-0.333
AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.13,0.07,0.19,-0.178,-0.24,-0.124
AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.203,-0.279,-0.135
AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.43,0.33,0.53,0.278,0.1,0.433
AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.078,0.007,0.148
AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.338,0.277,0.392
AutoTheta,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.342,0.277,0.399
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.063,-1.27,-0.883
Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.875,-1.061,-0.724
Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.877,-1.074,-0.729
Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.818,-1.003,-0.658
Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.005,0.065,-0.846,-1.025,-0.7
Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.961,-0.632
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623
Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.598,-0.753,-0.474
Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.105,0.23,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198
Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.07,0.175,-0.306,-0.403,-0.225
Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.375,0.285,0.465,0.213,0.012,0.394
Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.085,-0.174,-0.008
Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.685,0.61,0.755,0.281,0.208,0.351
Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.77,0.69,0.86,0.286,0.205,0.362
Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.87,-2.255,-1.52
Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-1.608,-1.963,-1.301
Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.611,-1.972,-1.293
Naive,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.53,-1.877,-1.224
Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.568,-1.912,-1.254
Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.478,-1.816,-1.178
Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.449,-1.767,-1.16
Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-1.224,-1.535,-0.956
Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.779,-0.938,-0.629
Naive,AutoARIMA,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.816,-0.997,-0.636
Naive,AutoETS,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.063,-0.343,0.186
Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.51,-0.644,-0.383
Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.315,0.245,0.39,-0.391,-0.54,-0.263
Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.007,-0.018,0.028
Drift,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.889,-2.297,-1.517
Drift,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.626,-1.992,-1.31
Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.629,-2.005,-1.301
Drift,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.547,-1.905,-1.228
Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.02,0.1,-1.585,-1.953,-1.257
Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.495,-1.849,-1.182
Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.465,-1.797,-1.171
Drift,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-1.239,-1.572,-0.95
Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.791,-0.961,-0.632
Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.828,-1.021,-0.649
Drift,AutoETS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.066,-0.344,0.183
Drift,AutoTheta,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.52,-0.664,-0.384
Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.23,0.14,0.31,-0.401,-0.567,-0.258
Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.007,-0.029,0.018
Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0