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Basecamp: The art of problem restatement We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- I'm having a tough time writing this newsletter. No particular reason, but an opening isn't coming to me as easily as it usually does. I've written and deleted 5 paragraphs in <DATE_TIME>. I was starting to get frustrated, ready to set this whole task aside until <DATE_TIME>. But sometimes writing through the frustration is a valuable exercise. Getting words down on paper, in the hopes that a direction will reveal itself. I write newsletters to share information with you, but also to share process. Offer a glimpse behind the scenes of our small company and how we make software. And sometimes process is messy and malleable. My writing process, to be sure! But even our own product development process at 37signals. We run into problems that need a fix in the course of building & maintaining our apps, and we consider different paths before landing on the one that leads us to the just-right solution. At 37signals, we talk often internally about applying 'judo' in our process. <NRP> is the art of problem restatement. When our programmers and designers run into a bug or a feature that needs retooling, there are usually multiple ways to address the issue. One could <DATE_TIME> of potentially deeply repercussive work. Another might take <DATE_TIME>, using the tools and structure we already have in place. We much prefer the simpler approach. The end result tends to be as good an experience as if we took the more complex route. The practice is efficient, but it's also clever and fun. Like when it's 7:00pm, you forgot to stop at the grocery store, and your kids are waiting for dinner. You judo the situation, raid your fridge, and get creative! The meal might end up being quite simple, using what you have on hand, but it's just as nourishing as an elaborate dinner, and you didn't spend an outsized amount of time or effort on the problem. <NRP> isn't a last resort shortcut, but a skill that we celebrate at 37signals and encourage our employees to hone. This newsletter edition is my attempt at judoing writer's block! Are there problems that come up in your work where you can you step back, simplify what needs to be done, and take a fresh approach? Some recent updates and news New in HEY: Bubble Up Now You've always been able to use the Bubble Up feature to schedule messages to float to the top of your Imbox. Now you can bubble up emails immediately so they sit at the top of your screen until you dismiss them. I use Bubble Up Now like a to-do list. Emails come in that I need to respond to, so I make sure they stay bubbled up to the top where I can see them & reply when I have time throughout my day. Hotwire Native, Solid Queue, and <PERSON> 2.0 releases At 37signals we make customer facing products, like Basecamp , HEY , and our ONCE line. But we also spend considerable time building open-source tools that improve how our own team develops & runs our apps. We recently celebrated 3 launches that not only help us, but also other developers in our industry. Hotwire Native , a web-first framework for building native mobile apps; Solid Queue 1.0 , a DB-based queuing backend for Active Job; and <PERSON> , a deployment tool for running web apps directly on VMs or bare metal servers. Basecamp Office Hours Join <PERSON> and <PERSON> of 37signals for a LIVE webinar on <DATE_TIME>, at 11:00AM CT. They'll be sharing best practices for adding and working with clients in <LOCATION>. Bring your questions and get them answered by a Basecamp expert in real time. Register here! Talk to you next time! - Andrea, People Ops at 37signals
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Basecamp: Meetings you hate, and how to avoid them We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- Everywhere you look, people are ranting about meetings - hours of your life you won't get back, no time to get RealWork™️ done, videoconference fatigue… But just saying you hate them won't make them go away. Here are three common meetings you hate, and how to avoid them: The Team Update Usually held <DATE_TIME>, the agenda is always the same. You go around the room (or, "around the horn" if your boss think's they're a former ship's captain), and tell everyone what you've been working on. The trickiest part of this is how long you ramble on. <DATE_TIME>, and the boss thinks you've been slacking. <DATE_TIME> and your team will accuse you of brown-nosing and standing between them and lunch. How to avoid it: Start writing, and reading. A shared document (or a <DATE_TIME> check-in, in <LOCATION>), will take care of this nicely as long as you follow the two important steps. Step one, you have to write one. Step two, read what others have written. <PERSON>, our head of people, wrote a great post , reminding us what a good check-in looks like. The Planning Meeting You could have anywhere from six to 600 people in this one, but either way, don't let the number of people fool you. There's no work happening here. This is the meeting about the work. There's a slide deck that someone will read page by page, verbatim, including, the timeline for for the gantt chart, the most recent update, and the schedule of future update meetings and pre-meeting updates. How to avoid it: Make a project with everything people need to see and know about it. When people ask you questions about the timeline, point them to the project. When someone is looking for the file for the thing, point them to the project. When someone sends you a meeting request… you get the idea. This Could Have Been an Email A close cousin to the Planning Meeting, this meeting could have been summed up in a 2-line email, but instead it's a <DATE_TIME> meeting. But you should be grateful, because the ended it early and the organizer "gave you <DATE_TIME> back." How to avoid it: Was it even worth an email? Or was it just a thought you could have kept to yourself? Just kidding. Start a new trend, write a quick note, and be done with it. Express your gratitude by reading the notes that others send to you. Thoughts we've shared Paranoia and desperation in the AI gold rush I've never seen so much paranoia in technology about missing out on The Next Big Thing as with AI. Companies seem less excited about the prospects than they are petrified that its going to kill them. Maybe that fear is justified, maybe it's not, but what's incontestable is the kind of desperation it's leading to. - <PERSON> The subtle art of staying out of it On the REWORK Podcast, we talk about the importance of stepping out of the day-to-day operations as a founder. Giving employees room to call the shots can spark new ideas and get things done faster. It also inspires people to think beyond just following orders. Things we're excited about You just went viral, now what? At 37signals, we recently had a video pop off . It was exciting to witness people respond so positively to something that I was proud of. We didn't work too hard on it, it just sorta happened because we were having fun. As the video climbed in views, shares, and compliments from strangers, I noticed myself getting high on my own supply. Checking LinkedIn, X, and TikTok <DATE_TIME> for another hit. Letting it all go to my head . - <PERSON> The next ONCE product… Did you catch the announcement ? It won't be long now til you can get your very own copy of Writebook - for free! Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: All about HEY! We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- <DATE_TIME>, a friend told me about their "burner email" account. It's an email address you use to sign up for all the stuff that makes you have an account, even though you don't really want one. Or maybe the email you use only buying things online? Or to sign up for "free" stuff? Somewhere along the line, inboxes have turned into a chaotic mess, where every day you go through a morning routine of deleting the ads from stores you bought from that one time, emails you never asked for and newsletters you quit reading <DATE_TIME>. You try to make sure you don't delete the more important stuff. From screening out spam to grouping similar types of messages (receipts, newsletters, reply-laters), HEY gives you control of your <PERSON> (or, Imbox, as we call it), with a few easy steps. You don't even have to give up your Gmail address. And sure, other email programs let you say "no" to certain senders, but only HEY lets you say "F$% no!" And if you're running a business, you really don't have time for nonsense. HEY's contacts and workflows features were built with organizing and streamlining email for small businesses in mind. But don't just take our word for it. Here's what a long-time HEY user and solopreneur says about it. By the way, if you've tried HEY and thought, "What it really needs is a calendar!" We agree! Coming soon to a mailbox near you! Thoughts we've shared In the newest REWORK Podcast episode , <PERSON> and <PERSON> delve into the concept of <LOCATION> eggs-those hidden surprises that infuse a touch of edgy enjoyment into software, and how this feature has emerged as a compelling reason for both newcomers and returning users to explore HEY as their email solution. Things we're excited about All this talk about email got our creative sparks going and unleashed a series of hilarious videos answering burning questions like… There's a screen separating you and your inbox, but what if you actually had to hang out with your email? Yikes! What if we sent researchers out on an expedition to uncover how early cave people sent email? Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Our best meet-up ever We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- <DATE_TIME>, we held our semi-annual meet-up in <LOCATION>. It was our best meet-up ever, which is saying something because we've been doing them at least twice a year for <DATE_TIME>! So, what's a meet-up? 37signals is a fully remote company - no office headquarters. We have about 60 employees who work from their home offices throughout 19 countries. A little over half of our staff hails from <LOCATION>, and the rest are distributed throughout <LOCATION>, <LOCATION>, <LOCATION>, and <LOCATION>. We cover a lot of time zones, so the bulk of our work is done using asynchronous communication . But twice a year we meet in person for <DATE_TIME> to engage in some valuable face to face time. We meet in a different city every time, usually <DATE_TIME> in <LOCATION> and <LOCATION> in <LOCATION>. The primary goal of the meet-up is building camaraderie in a work context. Meeting new people, seeing old colleagues, forming relationships and strengthening existing ones. We accomplish this by providing a ton of free time. The meet-up agenda has a few mandatory events - the All Hands address on <DATE_TIME>, lightning talks on <DATE_TIME>, and the closing peer recognition & milestone anniversary celebration on <DATE_TIME>. Those 3 events account for <DATE_TIME> of a <DATE_TIME> event. The rest of the time is up to individuals and teams to decide how to make the most of our short time together. Most often that means our teams are meeting to talk about how a project is going, or to discuss their strategy for long-term work, or to hash out a recent problem. I sat in on a meeting in <LOCATION> with Customer Support managers and some Principal Programmers in which they discussed changing how issues are bubbled up from the Support team to our On Call programmers. They came up with a new, improved process almost immediately. But then they sat together for <DATE_TIME>, asked questions, and learned from each other about each team's relationship to On Call. The process update could have happened in <LOCATION>, from our home offices, in <DATE_TIME>. The rest of the meeting - the slower, less purposeful, valuable conversation - maybe not so much. That said, we also encourage social time! Putting away the laptop, getting outside, exploring the city we've all traveled to, and talking about things unrelated to work. We provide a couple planned excursions and small group dinners, and people have the option to sign up for what interests them. In <LOCATION>, a group took a boat ride on the river, another took an architectural tour of Habitat 67, and a huge cohort attended the home opener for the <LOCATION> hockey team. We also provide a space for socializing within the workspace. In <LOCATION> we had a full café to ourselves. Plenty of comfortable seating for impromptu chatting over what turned out to be an absurdly good pistachio latté. So why was this meet-up, of the nearly 30 I've personally planned, our very best? This meet-up was a definitive return to quality. We booked a meeting venue that is historic, inspirational, and offers unparalleled service. We stayed a hotel 150m from the meeting space for easy access back and forth, and with the comfort amenities we like. We searched high & low for a caterer with restaurant quality food, instead of typical corporate caterers who seem to all have the same recipe for overcooked steamed vegetables with gelatinous "cheese" sauce. We brought in our own furniture , to make the auditorium space softer, very comfortable. And we used a highly professional audio-visual company to run our presentations. Anyone who's planned an event - personally or professionally - knows the basic list of vendors is non-negotiable. But the spectrum of quality for venues, food, and services is massive. For a long time, we stayed safely in the middle of that spectrum, sometimes erring too far on the lower end, for the sake of the budget. In <LOCATION> we purposely went higher end, for the sake of our experience. And it worked. The overall experience enhanced our time together and by extension, our working together. People wanted to hang out in the gorgeous space to meet. The venue was energizing - the opposite of a draining, fluorescent-lit hotel conference room. Everyone stayed for lunch because the food was so good, instead of venturing out to nearby restaurants and fracturing <DATE_TIME>. The presentations went off without a hitch which made them light, fun, and engaging. As we begin planning our Spring 2025 meet-up, we're looking to replicate our experience in <LOCATION> by building an event that inspires us. It's the only proper setting, really, for the incredible work done by our teams every day. Some recent updates and news New in Basecamp: Do more with Public Links Public links let you share parts of your Basecamp projects with people outside your account. Until now, you could only share a basic message, document, or to-do. Now the sharing experience is more dynamic. To-dos and events within your public link are clickable, so recipients have access to detailed information about each item. And now you can include comments on messages, documents, and to-dos, giving more context when you share something publicly. Read more. <LOCATION> Hours Join <PERSON> and <PERSON> of 37signals for a LIVE webinar on <DATE_TIME>, at 10:00AM CT. They'll be chatting with <PERSON> and <PERSON> from the 37signals Quality Assurance team about how they use <LOCATION> for QA. Bring your questions and get them answered live by 4 Basecamp experts! <PERSON> here! Talk to you next time! - Andrea, People Ops at 37signals
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Basecamp: Why do educators love using <LOCATION>? We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- It's <DATE_TIME>, and <DATE_TIME> is quickly coming to an end. At 37signals, that means <DATE_TIME> , and the beginning of Back to School season. You might not know this, but Education customers make up 8% of all Basecamp users. We see teachers, students, school administrators and parent volunteers collaborating in projects to manage classrooms, develop a curriculum, and even organize after-school clubs. <PERSON> uses Basecamp at XP School Trust in <LOCATION>, <LOCATION>, to run eight government-funded schools: "I've used every incarnation of <LOCATION> over <DATE_TIME>, ever since I interviewed a guy to project manage us, and he told me we needed to start with documentation. I didn't hire him, and I found Basecamp instead. Phew!" <PERSON> is a school administrator in <LOCATION>, <LOCATION>, and has used Basecamp in schools for <DATE_TIME>: "Our State Learning Standards are obtuse to navigate. It's hard to get teachers to work together to "unpack" the standards, share resources, and provide instructions on how best to meet the standards with available resources. At least it used to be hard. Now we are using <LOCATION> and we are suddenly on the same page." These are just a couple of examples from our Basecamp Community , a great resource that's open to all Basecamp customers. And, if you're a teacher or know someone who could use Basecamp for Education, there's more information about our discounts here . Features we've added Project Builder Basecamp projects are where it all comes together. And with the new <LOCATION> project builder , it's easier than ever to create projects, whether you're a first-time user or a seasoned pro. Add project details and dates, choose your tools, and invite team members, all in one place. Thoughts we've shared Don't lose your unreasonable sense of urgency The irony of being successful in business is that it'll invariably attract smart people who can tell you all the good reasons why you can no longer go as quickly as you once did. Don't listen too closely… Things we're excited about New Home Page We just launched a redesigned <URL> ! Curious about it? <PERSON> talks about why it's designed the way it's designed , structured the way it's structured, and written the way it's written. Basecamp in 🇮🇳 India Live in <LOCATION>? Run a small business? For the very first time, <LOCATION> is offering reduced pricing for new <NRP> small business customers starting at just ₹350/user per month. <LOCATION> has always been a big market for us - top 5 in traffic and revenue - but recently it feels like something really changed. Turns out, <LOCATION> videos from <PERSON> , <PERSON> and <PERSON> have made our book REWORK a very big deal in the <NRP> entrepreneurial community. And via REWORK, people have been discovering Basecamp. We're beyond grateful, and thoroughly excited by the interest. Moving from <LOCATION> earlier version of Basecamp? While we've pledged to maintain those products until the end of the internet , there are some new tools and features in <LOCATION> you might want to check out. And you can switch now without changing the price of your existing plan! Watch our team walk through the transition step-by-step in our recent office <DATE_TIME> session , and check out our help guide to learn more about upgrading your account. Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: What's new at 37signals We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- A lot's been happening at 37signals (makers of <LOCATION> and HEY ) - here's some of what we've been up to recently. Features we've added Turn Off Reminders: Some people like being reminded of things every day, but if you don't need it, you can now toggle your event and to-do reminders on and off on <LOCATION>. <DATE_TIME>: Here's one for international Basecamp users, or people who prefer using military time. Now you can easily switch to a <DATE_TIME> clock display that'll convert times everywhere in <LOCATION>, from the meeting scheduler to Campfires. Workflows and Contact Notes: HEY for Domains, our email platform for small businesses, got two big new features <DATE_TIME>: Workflows and Contact Notes . It's like a lightweight customer management tool that can automatically route emails through a process and keep notes on customer details - both great ways to keep a growing business organized. Thoughts we've shared We Stand with the Underdog: <PERSON> explains why being an underdog is a good thing . Small is not less than . It's greater than. It's faster than. It's better than. In fact, your competitors might even wish they were as small as you, because the biggest advantage you have is speed . Remote Work Still Works: It's been <DATE_TIME> since the pandemic forced people to work from home, and now businesses everywhere are forcing employees back into the office. Check out this blog post where <PERSON> argues that hybrid combines the worst of office and remote work , and describes how 37signals uses regular meetups to recharge the trust batteries in our remote company . Things we're excited about Basecamp Community: For <DATE_TIME>, we've been fine-tuning a space for Basecamp users to come together, ask questions and exchange tips. And finally, Basecamp Community is now open to everyone. If you're looking to get even more out of your Basecamp experience (or if you're just interested in meeting incredible people doing incredible things), learn more and sign up here .
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Basecamp: It's (past) time to cut costs We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- It's not your imagination. Things have gotten pretty expensive. <DATE_TIME>, I paid $50 for take-out tacos! Tacos! Inflation has increased the cost of living by almost 20% in the <LOCATION> since <DATE_TIME>. But it's not just here. You can compare global inflation by country on the Financial Times website. So whether you're a solopreneur or a team of hundreds, it feels like it's (past) time to be cutting unnecessary costs. <DATE_TIME>, the 37signals Operations team got us off the cloud, which is saving more than $7 million . Here are a few other ways to think about how to get leaner: 1. Always be looking at expenses It's hard to sit on the couch for <DATE_TIME> and start to get up and try to run. But if you're constantly exercising, it's a lot easier to do better and feel comfortable adapting to a new reality. 2. Practice making more than you spend Speaking of forming habits, if your habit is spending money, then that's what you'll be good at. It's actually the easier thing to do. The harder thing is to make more money than you spend. But, if you don't practice, how would you ever expect to be good at that? 3. What's that thing really worth? Look at something, and ask yourself if it's worth it. Do the math. If it's $90,000, and that's <DATE_TIME> of a developer's time, are you getting <DATE_TIME> worth of similar value out of this thing? Could we build it ourselves for less? Could we spend that money elsewhere and get more? 4. Cut your subscriptions A lot of people who run relatively small companies talk about having 10, <DATE_TIME>, or 20 subscriptions to pieces of software. It adds up. Does it feel reasonable and reasonable compared to the alternative? You may like Trello or Dropbox or Asana or Slack, but do you like them enough to pay for all of them? You might want to check your assumptions. 5. Watch out for variable costs Let's say you're paying for five different products, and they're all per seat. When the company grows, and you hire another 20 people or 100 people, everything gets way more expensive. Not just salaries, but also all your tools. It's the same product you had before. Why are you paying so much more for it? When costs are variable, they can rise slowly until it's this big huge snowball. Cutting expenses isn't just for inflationary times. It's just good business practice. If you've discovered other troves of wasted expenses, let us know about it on <PERSON> or email me . Thoughts we've shared Rapid Fire with <PERSON> and <PERSON> host <PERSON> puts 37signals CEO <PERSON> and <PERSON> in the hot seat in this recent episode. Here are a few of the questions… What book has been the most influential as you've built your business? What's the best single piece of business advice you've ever received? What's the one thing you wish someone had told you when you were first starting your business? What habits do you have that help you be more productive? Hooks, towel bars and software Strangely, a recent bathroom renovation crystalized my perspective on product development. When being asked to choose between towel hooks or a towel bar, the choice was obvious: Hooks, of course. Hooks take up no space. Towel bars suck up space. But what do towel hooks have to do with product development? For me, just about everything . - Jason Fried Two heads Product roles are frequently solo roles. There's a lot of collaboration between designers and engineers, but it's uncommon for two product people to work alongside one another. That's why you hear a lot about being the "CEO of the product" or owning things. But we see product ideation as a partnership . What does that look like in practice? - <PERSON> , Head of Product Strategy at 37signals Things we're excited about We're hiring! 37signals is hiring a Rails programmer to work on <LOCATION> and HEY. You'll be building new product features alongside a designer using our Shape Up methodology, as well as spending time addressing issues to make sure our apps are robust and our codebase is weed-free. We're accepting applications until <DATE_TIME> at <DATE_TIME> . Or things YOU'RE excited about Are you one of the thousands of new Campfire fans? (If you haven't heard of it, read more here.) We're looking for people who are open to sharing how you use it, or what you like best. Tell us about your experience . Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: And now for something completely new We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- We all love a great story, and it's even more exciting when you get to see it unfold before you, in real time. If you read nothing else <DATE_TIME>, this is one you won't want to miss… Once upon a time you owned what you paid for, you controlled what you depended on, and your privacy and security were your own business. We think it's that time again … And if that inspires you, as it does us, maybe now's the time for you to start something new. Inspiration doesn't last forever. If you want to do something, you've got to do it now. You can't put it on a shelf and wait <DATE_TIME> to get around to it. You can't just say you'll do it later. Later, you won't be pumped up about it anymore. If you're inspired on a <DATE_TIME>, use <DATE_TIME> to dive into the project. When you're high on inspiration, you can get <DATE_TIME> of work done in <DATE_TIME>. Inspiration is a time machine in that way, but it won't wait for you. It's a now thing. If it grabs you, grab it right back and put it to work.* Have a great idea? Drop me a line , or share it in the Basecamp Community ! * Adapted from "Inspiration is Perishable" in REWORK Thoughts we've shared Dropping TypeScript The next release of Turbo 8 is dropping TypeScript. Some may disagree about this decision, and very few programmers are typically interested in having their opinion changed . But check out <PERSON> blog post and recent REWORK podcast episode on why this makes sense. Minding the Small Stuff (from <PERSON>, on the Dev blog ) Nitpicking in pull request reviews means offering insight that looks excessive, pedantic, and unimportant. It's a pejorative term. But with negative connotations, this practice suddenly becomes undesirable: mind the big picture or leave the pull request alone. With that, we disagree. When writing code, small stuff matters, a lot . Things we're excited about <DATE_TIME> Interns Report Out Our programming and ops interns just finished their <DATE_TIME>, <DATE_TIME> program with us. There's no coffee-fetching here. Our interns were treated as much like any other member of the team, doing meaningful cycle work that they could start shipping by <DATE_TIME>. How did they do it? And how did we do it? It's all right here . See <PERSON>, Live! On <DATE_TIME>, <PERSON> joins Vancouver Tech Journal (IRL!) and special guests at <LOCATION> for an in-depth conversation on technology, the big ideas changing business, and what it all means for the future of entrepreneurship. Tickets are still available . Calling all Creators We're looking for people who are interested in sharing their experiences with Basecamp or HEY on social media. If you create content on YouTube , X , or TikTok , let's talk. DM us on one of these channels or email <EMAIL_ADDRESS> ! Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: New Year, new Calendar We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- One of the things I love most about a new year is the chance to start fresh. Clear the old stuff out of the inbox. Turn a literal and figurative new page on the calendar. At 37signals, we have a brand new "What Works" project for <DATE_TIME>, where we keep our Cycle calendar, Kickoffs, Heartbeats and Automatic Check-ins . And, we've just started to roll out the new HEY Calendar to beta testers. It's been the top request since we launched <URL> . <DATE_TIME>, we released the most comprehensive preview yet, in this video walk-through with <PERSON>. In addition to having all the event scheduling functions you'd expect, HEY <PERSON> takes inspiration from the world of paper calendars; name <DATE_TIME> and fill them in with a special image, circle important events, and "pencil-in" things you might do with the Maybe calendar. You'll also find digital features, like a habit tracker and time tracking. And, unique to HEY, you'll see a list of "sometime this week" things you'd like to get done, but don't have scheduled. And yes, you can share calendars with other HEY users. Stay tuned for more updates and the official launch date. Finally, <DATE_TIME> feels like an especially good time to ask: Are there are other things you'd like to see in this newsletter? Questions you have for us? Just drop me a line: <EMAIL_ADDRESS> . Thoughts we've shared Cars and business Through the car experience lens, I've come to see businesses as either analog or digital . I'm not describing their product or what they make. I'm talking about how they're structured, how they run. An analog business is direct. It's clear what does what, and how it does it. When something changes, you typically know what changed. A digital business is indirect and abstracted. - Jason Fried The Big Cloud Exit FAQ The cloud exit is done, but the questions keep coming. Oh do they keep coming. So rather than answer the same points over and over (and OVER!), I thought I'd compile a good old-fashioned list of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) - <PERSON> to Competence <DATE_TIME> It's that time of year when people start thinking about new year's resolutions. The trouble with a lot of these aspirations is that they require the formation of new habits and carving out new chunks of time in an already busy day. That's not impossible, of course, but it's hard. But for most people, a significant portion of <DATE_TIME> is already allocated to work. That's a solid <DATE_TIME> for the majority of people with a regular job. <DATE_TIME> a week. <DATE_TIME> a year. Imagine if you dedicated just 10% of that to getting better at what you do. - <PERSON> Things we're excited about <PERSON> vs. Workarounds We all get trained to take extra, time-consuming steps to make up for things that software should do, but doesn't. No more! Check out these workflows that replace the Gmail or Outlook workarounds you've been using. And watch these new videos for even more tips on how to make the most of HEY. Live Review Series We often get questions about how we make decisions or evaluate work in progress. If you've wondered that as well, get a behind-the-scenes look at how we've designed features and our feedback process, in this playlist of Live Reviews . Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: A little thanks We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- Before we take off for <DATE_TIME>, it's a good time to express our appreciation to everyone who is part of the 37signals community. We're really passionate about sharing our experiences - what we do, how we do it, and all the valuable lessons we've picked up along the way. By doing this, we hope this can help the small businesses, the underdogs, in every field to thrive and succeed. We're also thankful for customers who have found a better way to work with Basecamp and felt so great about it that they wanted to tell all their friends. This includes companies like <LOCATION>, that switched from ClickUp to Basecamp in <DATE_TIME>; <URL> and autobia , that dropped Slack for Basecamp; and Project 33 that traded in <URL> and Slack for us. If you're hoping to start <DATE_TIME> with better organization and fewer distractions, maybe now's the time for you to consider trying Basecamp, too. Just for our newsletter readers, we'll give you <DATE_TIME> (that's <DATE_TIME> total) to try Basecamp for free. AND, if you decide to become a paying customer, we'll send you an autographed copy of It Doesn't Have to Be Crazy at Work . To take advantage of this offer, sign up for a new account, and then reply to this email with "Basecamp for <DATE_TIME>." Make sure to tell us the email address that you used for your trial account. Thoughts we've shared Live with it for a while In the course of building products, you'll likely experience moments when you're unsure of a certain screen, flow, condition, label, idea, whatever. I like these moments. It's practice. It's a chance to sit with them, to let them be, to work on other things while they marinate in the back of your mind. They aren't blockers, they aren't deal breakers - they're just things that may or may not work out. - <PERSON> levels of finishing We're in the final phase of getting the first ONCE product out the door. As with any new development, there are a million little details we need to nail, and that's usually where the temptation to cut corners beckons, but we've handcuffed ourselves to the virtue of beautiful code by committing to shipping the code with purchase. We're shipping the code because I want to show everyone that an extremely high level of care for the internals is not in opposition to the demands of commercial deadlines . In fact, I'd go so far as to say such case is in service of said deadlines. - <PERSON> Things we're excited about The last cycle was a great one for new Basecamp features that you can see live in action with the links below. Move the Needle and Mission Control give you insight into your projects' current status, without having to piece together the details! Need to see what members of your team have been working on? Want to check in on just a handful of projects? Now you can filter activity by projects or by people to see what's most important. Cycling though images in <LOCATION> just got easier. If you want to view photos from a recent event or flip through potential logo designs, you can now easily click through from one image to the next on a single screen. Happy Holidays, and see you in <DATE_TIME>! - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Sign up for the Basecamp newsletter We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Join more than 150,000 people who get our newsletter. We'll share product updates, thoughts, new releases, and other tidbits we think you'll find interesting. Subscribe <DATE_TIME> Consider the full problem <DATE_TIME> Hire when it hurts… or don't <DATE_TIME> Our best meet-up ever <DATE_TIME> The art of problem restatement <DATE_TIME> How we work <DATE_TIME> You need less than you think <DATE_TIME> The power of writing <DATE_TIME> What's next? <DATE_TIME> Meetings you hate, and how to avoid them <DATE_TIME> Shape Up - It's not just for products <DATE_TIME> How's your work ethic? <DATE_TIME> It's (past) time to cut costs <DATE_TIME> Going Live <DATE_TIME> Rules of the Road <DATE_TIME>, New Calendar 2023 <DATE_TIME> A little thanks <DATE_TIME> Quick Wins and Cool-downs <DATE_TIME> Going, and staying, Remote November 2 All about HEY! <DATE_TIME> Stacks, and how we did it <DATE_TIME> And now for something completely new <DATE_TIME> New Cycle, New Kickoff <DATE_TIME> What did you do in <DATE_TIME>? <DATE_TIME> Why do educators love using <LOCATION>? <DATE_TIME> Reply to everyone, don't confuse stalking and selling, and when to jump into <DATE_TIME> Time travel, leaving the cloud, and something useful we built <DATE_TIME> What's new at 37signals
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Basecamp: What did you do in <DATE_TIME>? We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- Last week marked <DATE_TIME> Cycle 4 at 37signals. We typically organize our work in <DATE_TIME> timelines that are long enough to build something meaningful, but also short enough that everyone feels the deadline from the start. Using the Shape Up process, and small, two-person programmer-designer teams , we shipped dozens of new features, product improvements and bug fixes for Basecamp and HEY in the last cycle. Here are a couple of new things we're particularly excited about : Public Links to Folders Do you have a set of forms, presentations, or other files, that you want to make accessible to people, even though they're not in your Basecamp account? Now you can! Designer <PERSON> teamed up with <PERSON> (one of our summer interns) on this project to create a public link for any folder you choose within Docs & Files. This one has been on our customers' wishlist for a while, and we're happy to see it out there. Custom Images for Doors Many Basecamp customers integrate Basecamp with another service, like GitHub, Figma or Google Sheets, using a feature we call "Doors." We have built-in support for 30 of the most popular services. But if you want to include access to multiple Google Sheets, for example, it can get confusing. Now, you can add your own image, animated gif, avatar, etc. as the icon for any Door, so each one can have its own visual identity. Also, if you're curious about how we thought through this problem and designed an elegant solution, <PERSON>, the designer for this project, will be talking about it during the next Basecamp Office Hours. Save your spot for this webinar on <DATE_TIME>. Thoughts we've shared The curing value of creation It's hard not to see your spirits lifted when you're part of bringing something to life. Like exercise, it's one of those rare avenues of human endeavor that almost invariably will make anyone feel better. And, also like exercise, the hard part is getting started when you need it the most! On learning how to make money Lemonade stands, car washes, lawn mowing, baseball card trading… Making money takes practice, just like playing the piano takes practice. No one expects anyone to be any good at the piano unless they've put in lots practice. Same with making money. The more you practice the better you get. Read <PERSON>'s full post here . Things we're excited about Old v. New Are you a freelancer? An underfunded non-profit? A small team feeling stuck in a large enterprise? Start-up battling established competitors? You're the underdog. You're our people. And you don't want to miss the latest video series from our creative team celebrating the power of small. Basecamp in <LOCATION> We had such a great response to our special pricing for customers in <LOCATION>, that we knew we needed to start doing it for others, too. So for all our amigos no brasil , we're happy to announce special, locals-only pricing for <LOCATION> ! (And, for our fans in other countries, if you'd like to be next on the list, drop me a note at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> .) Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: The power of writing We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- In a world dominated by tweets, sound bites, and quick updates, long-form writing is starting to feel like a thing of the past. But expanding your thoughts beyond five bullets on a slide, or 140 characters, gives you power and opportunity. With complete sentences, and paragraphs, and even chapters, you can explain complex ideas, develop nuanced arguments, and engage deeply with readers. And it isn't just about length-it's about depth. When you write long, you can examine a topic, presenting it from multiple angles. You can build an entire world or story. You create more and share more. We believe in the power of thoughtful writing. That's why we created HEY World , and now <PERSON> . Whether you're drafting an in-depth article, creating comprehensive guides, or documenting detailed processes, Writebook is your partner in producing high-quality content and publishing it online for free! Some things you might create: Comprehensive Guides and Tutorials: Use Writebook to create step-by-step instructions that help users fully understand and utilize your products or services. Research Papers and Case Studies: Academics and professionals can use <PERSON> to organize and present their research, and focus on that instead of navigating a complex online web publishing tool. Company Documentation: Internal documents, like the 37signals Employee Handbook , training materials, and project reports, are easy to find and share. Personal Projects: Whether it's drafting a novel, compiling a memoir, or collaborating on a family history, <PERSON> lets you and your co-authors publish together. How will you use it? If you're curious about some of the decisions behind the scenes, here's some of the thinking behind <PERSON>, why it's a place to publish, not just a place to write . Also, the original name was <PERSON>, but how did we get to <PERSON> ? (Or any of our product names?) Thoughts we've shared Decisions are hard Making decisions can be a huge burden-exhausting, isolating, anxiety-inducing. This dynamic plays out at even at home. After <DATE_TIME> at work, my wife and I negotiate not so much what we're having for dinner, but who has to decide. I'll cook, but you have to pick… One of my favorite bits of advice about decision making comes from the late <PERSON>, who once wrote, "It's easier to do something 100% of the time, than 98% of the time." Making the decision ahead of time means you don't have to decide again every time you face that decision. - <PERSON>, Principal Designer at 37signals Listener Questions: HR Edition How do we approach people management and performance reviews? Do we use AI to screen applications for open jobs? What do we look for in hiring? You had questions, we have answers. <PERSON>, Head of People Operations at 37signals, joins host <PERSON> in this episode of the REWORK Podcast . By the way, if you want a little more REWORK in your life, stop by the new merch store . (The notepad is my personal favorite!) Things we're excited about It's been a big summer for HEY We've added new features, new account plans and an iPad app for HEY <PERSON>! Here's some of the latest: Since HEY launched, we've heard from many of you who want to share all the goodness of HEY with the people in your family. We get it! We have partners, kids, and parents who would benefit from HEY, too. Introducing HEY for Families - add up to 4 additional HEY accounts for just $179/year total! One person pays and invites everyone, but the accounts remain separate and private. From multiple reminders to mobile updates, you need to see what's new in HEY email , calendar and the new iPad app. And, if you have multiple external email addresses, now you can add name tags to keep it clear. It's been a popular request! Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Quick wins and cool-downs We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- Can you believe it? Here we are at <DATE_TIME> of <DATE_TIME>. At 37signals, we've just completed <DATE_TIME> cycle of <DATE_TIME>, and are into an extended cool-down period . This is a period with no scheduled work, where we can breathe, meet as needed, and consider what to do next. In <DATE_TIME>, some of our team will put the finishing touches on projects from the last cycle. Some will knock off some quick wins. And quite a few are charging ahead with our upcoming releases of the first ONCE product and the new calendar for HEY . With <DATE_TIME> left in <DATE_TIME>, now is a good time to decide when to consider work "done." It's always tempting to increase the scope of a project, but making choices makes the product better. Being picky about scope differentiates the product. You can also check out this REWORK Podcast episode on how quick wins keep momentum going. Small victories can build morale, increase motivation, and give you something to celebrate <DATE_TIME>. Thoughts we've shared In <DATE_TIME>'s hustle-centric work environment, there's a prevailing pressure to showcase constant busyness, sometimes at the expense of genuine productivity. In the latest episode of the REWORK Podcast, we dismantle the myth of the "outwork" mentality and delve into the nuances of work ethic, productivity, and career advancement within the constantly changing dynamics of the workplace. And on the lighter side, don't miss this throwback clip on employee benefits - like the working masseuse, free food paste for lunch, and the <DATE_TIME> shuttle service home! What great benefits! No, really. It Doesn't Have to Be Crazy at Work . Things we're excited about Once a product category proves popular, it's common for more companies to enter the market. Generics are launched that are devoid of fancy packaging, marketing, and advertising. This happens in most industries. Maybe not in airplanes, but absolutely in peanut butter. And you know what's closer to peanut butter than airplanes? Software. Speaking of, we're <DATE_TIME> away from the first ONCE product… There's now an official Rails job board with openings from companies like Shopify, Intercom, <LOCATION>, <PERSON>, and others. If you're looking for a Rails job, you can subscribe to be notified of new postings. If you're looking to hire, there's a <DATE_TIME> special - just $99 per job post (normally $299). Happy hiring! Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Stacks, and how we did it We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- What does your desktop look like? Neat folders? Files everywhere? We don't make changes to the <LOCATION> home screen very often. It's a delicate balance between adding utility and just making things more complicated. But we'd seen from customers, and our own use, that it might be time to allow for a bit more organization. Enter: Stacks on the home screen (for desktop and mobile apps). Stacks let you group projects together, the same way you would stacks of papers or folders on your desk. You can try it yourself, right now. Or, check out this video . Some of you will be just as interested in how we made this feature, so here's a brief tour through the process, from the Shaping document that describes what problem we're trying to solve (check out Shape Up , if that's new to you), to the design review with <PERSON>, <PERSON> (product manager) and <PERSON> (designer). Thoughts we've shared How "Campfire" becomes "Chat" As we continue our focus on simplicity, ease, and clarity, we decided to rename the "Campfire "tool to "Chat." That brings it in line with the other tools with self-explanatory names. This sounds like a minor change, and it is, but at our scale, every clarification has a big impact down the line. Here's how we kept this from becoming hard . Hopefully our approach is helpful to your next easy thing, too. You don't create a culture Company culture is more than just a buzzword or a section in your employee handbook. It's not something you can just write down and expect to manifest. It creates itself organically, through the attitudes and actions of your team that define how you work and more importantly how you work together. This REWORK Podcast episode covers the pivotal distinction between "wanting" the right culture and actively "doing the work" to foster a positive culture that truly reflects your values. Things we're excited about Rails World celebrated <DATE_TIME> of Ruby on Rails, and introduced so many new tools. Here's a few of them: <PERSON> enables you to create fully native controls in your hybrid mobile apps, driven by the web. Build web components and native components that work together in WebView screens to elevate your Turbo Native apps to the next level. Solid Cache uses a SQL database as its cache store. We get a much larger cache at a fraction of the storage costs of memory caches like Redis or Memcached. While memory access is many times faster than disk, it only accounts for a fraction of cache operation time - there's also network time, serialization and compression. <PERSON> is a simple yet battle-tested deployment tool extracted from our cloud exit, which features zero-downtime deploys, rolling restarts, asset bridging, and just about everything else most people will need to deploy and update their web applications. See it live in action in this video walkthrough . Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Time travel, leaving the cloud, and something useful we built We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Features we've added Time Travel & Markers in The Lineup Sometimes you're looking to zoom out and see the bigger picture. The Lineup is <LOCATION>'s way of giving you a bird's eye view of projects in play. With some recent additions, now you can look into the future <DATE_TIME> at a time with the Time Travel button, or note important dates and milestones by dropping a Marker. Date Picker This one was a popular customer request. The new date picker makes it easier to select <DATE_TIME>, and <DATE_TIME> that's far in the future, without all the clicking. Most importantly, this feature is a big upgrade for anyone using assistive tech. When we shared this new feature with longtime user <PERSON>, who uses a screen reader, he said: "I shared this e-mail at the team meeting <DATE_TIME> (which has several other screen reader users) and a lot of people were happy to hear about the support experience and continued accessibility work. We evaluated a number of project management apps and Basecamp absolutely flattened the competition, especially in accessibility, so that's why we're using it." Thoughts we've shared Why We're Leaving The Cloud: In <DATE_TIME>, <PERSON> announced that we were leaving the cloud . And after <DATE_TIME> of effort, our departure is now complete . The promised savings of the cloud never materialized for our small business. If you look at the math, it's astonishing… leaving the cloud will save <LOCATION> $7 million over <DATE_TIME>! How We Built Something Useful: <PERSON> explores why some of work's most rewarding moments come from making something simply useful , and why you should never wait for innovation to strike . Things we're excited about Organizing a Company Meetup in Basecamp: In <DATE_TIME>, more than 70 of our employees traveled from around the world to <LOCATION> for a company meetup. Coordinating hotels, meals, presentations, guest speakers, activities, and more is a daunting task. But <DATE_TIME> was organized by just two employees, of course using Basecamp. Here's a quick video highlighting how they got it all done .
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Basecamp: Consider the full problem We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hello there! <DATE_TIME>, I made a decision that was meant to increase efficiency and improve my quality of life at work. Because I didn't fully consider the problem I was trying to solve, the decision ended up making things more complicated. Some background. 37signals is a remote company which means we have staff all over the world, including all over <LOCATION>. The company establishes a business presence & files taxes in each state. We have 27 <LOCATION> employees working from 15 states. So it's a considerable task to maintain 30+ payroll tax accounts, not to mention fielding the agonizingly tedious state correspondence that accompany them. I wanted help managing our state accounts. I thought I wanted help with organization. Our tax information was scattered across platforms - in <LOCATION>, on spreadsheets, and in our payroll software. I was manually tracking deadlines and notices, and I completed those as they came due. I thought, if I could find a solution that managed all of that for me, I could reduce the headache. Enter tax compliance software and its lofty promises of managing this work better than I ever could. You'll never miss a filing deadline again! You'll only receive mail you need to see! New registrations are as simple as clicking a button! So I signed up, ready to unload my burden onto a service whose sole job is to organize all the moving parts of tax compliance for me. But while organization was an issue, it wasn't my full problem. I was also seeking peace of mind. Comfort and security in knowing that the process I use works 100% of the time. The compliance product we ended up using "works" in the sense that our information is all in one place. But I'm still regularly checking up, verifying that they're doing the work with the same diligence I'd put into it, 100% of the time. Adding software has decreased my peace of mind surrounding tax compliance. Had I fully considered my problem, I never would have added the service and instead shored up my existing tracking process in <LOCATION>. The lesson I took? Fully consider the problem I'm trying to solve. Then seek the least complex solution that addresses both the surface and deeper aspects of it. My existing tool - Basecamp - used more thoughtfully was all I really needed to solve my problem. Some news and thoughts we've shared: Basecamp Office Hours Join <PERSON> and <PERSON> of 37signals for a LIVE webinar on <DATE_TIME>, at 11:00AM CT. They'll be joined by a Basecamp customer to walk through how they use <LOCATION> to manage projects outside of work. Peek inside live accounts to see how Basecamp can manage family life, vacations, hobbies, and more. Bring your questions and get them answered live by a Basecamp expert. Register here! 37signals Dev Blog Victor of our <NRP> team wrote an update about our move out of the cloud, how we use <PERSON> for metrics, alerts, and monitoring 10 petabytes of data in Pure Storage. Read more! Talk to you next time! - Andrea, People Ops at 37signals
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Basecamp: Hire when it hurts… or don't We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- We don't hire often at 37signals. In fact, we only hire when it hurts. And lately our <NRP> team in <LOCATION> has been hurting for a third member. Our Ops team is responsible for keeping our lights on and apps running smoothly. To ensure that happens, our mighty team of 10 uses a follow the sun model. Incident and on-call response flows through team members, region to region - the <LOCATION>, to <LOCATION>, to <LOCATION> - so critical work remains prioritized. The sun touches the <LOCATION>-Pacific region for quite a while, so we made the decision to hire a third teammate to distribute the work more evenly. You might think - hire when it hurts, doesn't that mean lowering standards? The team is in pain! Hire someone, quickly, and get them some help! But, no, we take a different approach at 37signals. First, "hire when it hurts" is a simplification. Hurts means mild discomfort, not abject agony. A 2-3 on the pain scale, not an <DATE_TIME>. Second, because we work under constraints , because we're able to say no , and because we're used to achieving big things with small teams , our teams are conditioned to make highly impactful choices about their scope of work before compromising on something as important as a new teammate. We can be highly selective about who we're bringing on because our teams are empowered to make such choices while waiting for the right person to come along. Our SRE search is looking very promising! But there have also been times in the recent past when we've concluded a hiring round without the reward of a new teammate at the end of it. <DATE_TIME>, we put out a call for a new Rails programmer. We received over 1,000 applications! Yet none of those applications convinced us that hiring would be advantageous. Our existing team is in great shape. Adding someone who we're not excited about means potentially adding bloat to the team. Weighing them down and reducing their capacity, which isn't fair to them nor does it serve to ease the pain that prompted hiring in the first place. The work will always be there. If you enable your teams to amp up or throttle that work according to their capacity, hiring becomes a simple exercise. 'No' is always an option for empowered teams - within their work, and to hiring. Some recent updates New in HEY: Power Through New Spending too much time going through unread emails? Even with The Screener keeping unwanted messages out, it can be hard to stay on top of new emails coming in. We recently introduced Power Through New - a streamlined way to get through unread messages quickly. Read more! New in HEY: Accessibility improvements to HEY <PERSON> Navigating a calendar with a screen reader can be tricky. Screen readers typically read content in a left-to-right, top-to-bottom sequence, which doesn't match the layout of a calendar grid. So, we made improvements to make HEY Calendar easier to use with a screen reader. Read more! Talk to you next time! - Andrea, People Ops at 37signals
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Basecamp: You need less than you think We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- When you're running a small business, you may think you need to have "all the things" when it comes to documentation. But you probably need less legal overhead than you think. Take trademarks, for instance. Sure, having a registered trademark can give you some peace of mind. And in the <LOCATION>, you can register one pretty easily for just a few hundred dollars. But do you need to do it at all? Trademark protection is only as strong as your willingness and ability to defend it. If someone infringes on your trademark, are you prepared fund a legal battle? If you've been using the name or logo for a while, you may have some protection without a formal registration . Then there are contracts. Conventional wisdom says long contracts with exhaustive clauses are important. The reality? No contract can protect you from everything. Instead of getting lost in legal jargon, why not use clear, straightforward bullet points to outline your agreement? It's about building trust and clarity, not creating a document that no one fully comprehends. Here's a old favorite example of a client contract . <DATE_TIME>, we created a one-page contract to spin-off a business . It could have been a handshake - it wouldn't have changed anything. Part of it was daring ourselves to keep it that simple. Sure, we could have handed it to lawyers, who would have added more pages and billed everyone on both sides. But at <DATE_TIME>, keeping it simple worked. This approach might not suit every situation, but it's a viable option more often than you might think. Licenses are another area where simplicity can win. At 37signals, we use a version of the MIT Open Source license for all our ONCE products. It's short, to the point, and doesn't overcomplicate things. A simple, clear license can save you time, money, and headaches. On occasion, we do run things by a Real Lawyer™, but that's not the default. So if you've been dreading filing that thing or letting that contract slow you don't. Maybe you don't need to. Maybe you can take a simpler path and get back to what you do best - building a great business. Thoughts we've shared (Literally) Moving with Basecamp Brian, our head of product strategy, is moving across the country <DATE_TIME>. And of course, he used Basecamp to manage the project and track the progress - including a Hill Chart. Check it out here . SaaStock Interview with <PERSON> company is essentially two things: a group of people and a collection of decisions. How those people make these decisions is the art of running a business (37signals). We make decisions <DATE_TIME>, it's what often dictates the direction of a business. Some decisions work out and some don't. Some are quick to make and some tough to call. You'll never be able to consider every single piece of data, analysis or consequence when making a decision - sometimes a decision has to be made from the gut . Listener Questions: HR Edition How do we approach people management and performance reviews? Do we use AI to screen applications for open jobs? What do we look for in hiring? You had questions, we have answers. <PERSON>, Head of People Operations at 37signals, joins host <PERSON> in this episode of the REWORK Podcast . By the way, if you want a little more REWORK in your life, stop by the new merch store . (The notepad is my personal favorite!) Things we're excited about Is it time to go Pro? Have you checked out the new Timesheet feature in <LOCATION> ? We've been excited to see the positive response. And, if you're the admin for your Basecamp account, you might also be interested in the Admin Pro Pack that gives you additional controls over your account, changing permissions for sending pings, editing project details, turning on public links, and archiving/deleting projects. You can also require two-factor authentication and change chat history settings. Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: New Cycle, new Kickoff We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- I've had a few conversations lately about how to plan and organize work, and not just in product development, but all areas - marketing, customer support, operations. Shape Up is familiar to many programmers and designers , but did you know you can also apply it to more than development work? Right now, at 37signals, we're at the start of a new cycle, which means the teams have just finished posting their Kickoffs. A Kickoff 🥾 tells everyone in the company what you're committing to doing in <DATE_TIME>. Just writing it forces you to think hard about how you're using your time, and your team's time. And publishing it live creates visibility and accountability. We often get asked if teams whose work is primarily "reactive" or "ongoing" can use Shape Up. Yes! For example, in Customer Support, we don't use Shape Up for the everyday work of responding to our customers. We use it to take on special projects to provide a better experience and to make Basecamp customers more successful. Here's the actual Kickoff for our Customer Support team this cycle. Like a Kickoff for Product, each item on the list is a summary of what we're going to do, a little on why, and specific assignments of people and the expectation of the work. How do you choose what you're committing to? That's a process of shaping, pitching, and betting that you can read more about in Shape Up . Have more questions about how to use Shape Up? Drop me a line at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> . Thoughts we've shared 37signals datacenter overview During our journey off the cloud, we got a lot of questions about our datacenters. All of 37signals' apps that serve millions of users <DATE_TIME> are served from one datacenter in <LOCATION>, <LOCATION> and one in <LOCATION>, <LOCATION>. This includes Basecamp , HEY , and our many heritage apps that we have dedicated to run until the end of the internet . <PERSON>, director of operations, gives a high level review of what 37signals' datacenter presence looks like . …and how we monitor performance <PERSON>, from our <NRP> team, covers how we use <PERSON> to properly ingest, store, and alert based on metrics in a way we can confidently migrate and manage infrastructure and applications on-prem. Things we're excited about New Openings People in <LOCATION> and <LOCATION> might have noticed that we recently launched new, localized pricing to make Basecamp more accessible to small businesses in those countries. The great response suggests that we could use a couple of enthusiastic and entrepreneurial people who want to help others learn more about Basecamp and how it can make their organizations better. Check out our first-ever country manager roles here. Enterprise Extravaganza! Are you with a small company that wants to feel "big?" Download the EnterpriseExtravaganzaSuite™ today and get all the complexity and confusion of a big company! Use it as your desktop wallpaper! Look busy! <DATE_TIME> of mesmerizing, eye-watering fun! Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Going, and staying, remote We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- Seems like every day there's a new report out, confirming what we already know - remote work is better for getting work done, getting the best people and giving people the chance to do their best work. Hybrid schedules might sound like the best compromise, but it's actually the worst of office and remote worlds, with people still tied to expensive cities and congested commutes, only to go into an office for Zoom calls. Executives might argue that collaboration happens best when people are in the same room, but ideas aren't contained . They aren't "located" and they don't "reside." You just need the right minds, wherever they are. And if managers are being honest, what they're most worried about is not knowing what people are doing or where they are. We'd argue that doesn't matter. What matters is letting people design their own schedule around when they can do their best work. As a company that has had the majority of people working remotely for <DATE_TIME>, we've accumulated enough thoughts and best practices on the subject. Enough, in fact, to fill a whole book, <PERSON> , and two podcast episodes . We cover everything from how to manage a remote team to how to communicate and organize time. If you're still trying to figure out how to transition your team's (or your boss's) way of thinking, you might check these out. Thoughts we've shared <PERSON> the competition From the latest episode of The REWORK Podcast: In business, the idea that more is better often leads companies to engage in an endless race to add more features while losing sight of what truly matters to their users. From Basecamp's high-level simplicity to the disruptive potential of the new product line, "ONCE," the conversation explores the success of products that have rewritten the rules through simplicity, focusing on the small details that elevate products to greatness. Look back less One of the reasons companies have a hard time moving forward is because they've tangled themselves in the near past. They've trapped themselves looking for certainty where there isn't any. Searching for actionable advice where there are only guesses. It's a mistake most of the time. And a waste of time almost all of the time. Things we're excited about Behind the scenes of the new HEY Calendar As we finish up the all new HEY Calendar, here's a peek behind the scenes of the project itself. In this LinkedIn post, we share screenshots of updates and Hill Charts from the actual project. You can see movement of different scopes over <DATE_TIME>, as well as a new scope that appeared on the "figuring things out" side. Now live! The Rails Documentary With one of the most faithful communities online, Rails also has one of the most controversial, rabble-rousing creators out there, <NRP> programmer, <PERSON>. Get the whole spill from the people who had a front-row seat to the creation and development of Ruby on Rails. Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Rules of the road We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- We just finished updating the 37signals employee handbook . Yes, I know. You'd rather read the dictionary than an employee handbook. They're usually full of dense policies that are hard to understand and often out of date. They don't tell you anything about how the company really works, or the things that matter most to you, like pay or promotions. But ours is much different. We put a lot of effort into being very transparent about how we work, and it's just 16 pages. Here are a few sections that may be interesting to you: Getting started: Onboarding new people well takes thought and preparation, and you never get a second shot at those "first day vibes." Your <DATE_TIME> at a new job should be full of excitement. But in remote work, you'll likely just walk to your same home office spot, turn on your computer, and get started without much fanfare. We do our best to give people a warm welcome through posts and pre-scheduled introductions. Each person's onboarding project gives them an overview of what's going to happen, what they should spend their time on, and what's expected. How we work: No matter what role you hold at 37signals, our cadence of <DATE_TIME> cycles, and asynchronous work and communication are fundamentals. They're a big part of how we prioritize work and keep our calendars free for periods of deep work and focus. We also have a few rituals, that are experiences shared by all, that help keep us connected to each other and our customers. Your career path: People are motivated by personal growth; increasing their skills, developing a career. We make it clear from the start what the titles and proficiencies are for each job function, and how we calculate pay for each role. Qualifications and progress toward promotion shouldn't be a guessing game. If you're interested in learning more about how we work, and how we use <LOCATION>, register for our upcoming Office Hours session on <DATE_TIME>, <DATE_TIME> Central Time. <PERSON> and <PERSON> will be leading a tour through our company HQ project, What Works, cycle projects, Automatic Check-ins, and more. Thoughts we've shared Swimming the center or the edge Imagine a vast swimming pool 25 miles long, 50 miles wide, and 25 feet deep. Swimming this pool is akin to running a business. And how you swim this pool is akin to how you run the business. Everyone starts at the beginning, but you decide how close to the center or the edge you swim. There's only one rule: You can't turn around, there's no going back. Where would you start? - <PERSON> Pessimism is on the retreat We've lived through <DATE_TIME> in the recent past. Much stranger than any I can remember since my earliest, solid memories of the broader world from <DATE_TIME>. That's been the vibe, at least as I've received it, over <DATE_TIME> at least. But I think maybe the fever is finally breaking . The dark clouds of pessimism are parting from optimistic rays of light. I think they're seeping into the groundwater, and we're seeing sprouts everywhere with brighter, greener hues of positivity. - <PERSON> Things we're excited about HEY Calendar Thanks to all the early release and beta testers of the new HEY Calendar! After some drama getting approved for Apple's app store , we're thrilled to have released the Calendar across all platforms (web, iOS, and Android). If you don't have HEY already, <DATE_TIME>'s the perfect day to jump in with a <DATE_TIME> free trial at <URL> . Rails World and Rails 8 in <DATE_TIME> Rails World was the first major Rails conference on the <NRP> continent in <DATE_TIME>, and sold out in <DATE_TIME> ! So in <DATE_TIME>, we'll nearly double the capacity for attendance, and again have tons of new stuff to talk about for the next one in <DATE_TIME> in <LOCATION> . It'll be the conference where you go to hear about the latest technology and techniques in the Rails world from the people who build and advanced it. Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: How's your work ethic? We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Dear 37signals, My boss is super passionate about our work, which is awesome, but it's like he's got a turbo button stuck on "<PERSON>." Everything's "top priority," and he's all about those <DATE_TIME> pings, updates and tweaks. You know, the kind where you redo a project <DATE_TIME> because… well, reasons. He's really into micromanaging, too. Picture this: changing a single page umpteen times until it's just so. His heart's in the right place, aiming for the stars for our clients and all that, but I'm not totally convinced it's making the magic happen like he thinks it is. He says if I was "fully committed," I'd act the same way. AITA? Signed, - Running on Empty Dear Empty, In a word. No. <PERSON> has captured a monopoly on entrepreneurial inspiration. This endless stream of pump-me-up quotes about working yourself to the bone. It's time to snap out of it. The hustle may have started as a beacon for those with little to outsmart those with a lot, but now it's just synonymous with "the grind." And so many people end up broken and burned out with nothing to show for it. You aren't more worthy because you sacrificed everything, because you kept pushing through the pain or drove your team "to the max." When management holds up certain people as having a "great work ethic" because they're always around, always working, that's a terrible example of a work ethic and a great example of someone who's overworked. We can't do anything about your boss, but equating work ethic with excessive hours isn't going to get you ahead. Trust us. It doesn't have to be crazy at work . Thoughts we've shared A New Take on Platform Preferences <PERSON> recently made the switch from Apple to Android and Mac to PC . In this episode of the REWORK Podcast, <PERSON> and <PERSON> discuss the shift in direction , the events that led to the change of platform, and what the company was missing by being focused on the Apple ecosystem. Avoiding pile-ups When you work on really long projects, there's no harm in kicking the can down the line. In other words, when you say "later," it makes a pile at the end. But, when you work in <DATE_TIME> cycles, or relatively short time frames, "later" means something else entirely . There's no time for later. It's now or not. - <PERSON> we're excited about New feature alerts! Maybe you're using it as a product roadmap and want to share it with customers. Or perhaps you'd like to give your board members visibility into your progress without bogging them down in the day-to-day details. Now you can make a Card Table public . Plus, we've made <NRP> better than ever . You can bookmark pings and chats, delete old ones in one step, and see bookmarks from archived projects. Seeing the big picture Managing multiple projects or teams can be a lot to keep track of. Basecamp has tools to help you get a better handle on all the activity. From the Lineup to Mission Control, <LOCATION> can help you get an overview of what's happening . Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: What's next? We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- Sometimes you have too many good ideas. But sometimes you might be waiting for inspiration to strike. How long do you wait for that <PERSON> muse to show up? We'd say, don't wait. Get inspired by nature Spend some time outside. Take a walk in the woods. Stroll through a prairie. Climb a hill. Get down on your knees and look at the grass. Plant a garden. No space? Get some plants or flowers and put them on your desk. And if you're lucky enough to live near botanical gardens, visit a few times a year during peak seasons. What you'll see are ridiculously good designs. Millions of iterations are folded into what you see. Everything is the product of a million successful tries. The colors and shapes and structures and textures are manifestations of survival. If it's alive it's good design. Build something that you need You may not think you need anything right now. But have you run across something in every day life that just seems like it could be better, or easier, or less clunky? Maybe, like <PERSON>, your homeowner's association has terrible software . Those could be problems you could solve. Check out the customers you already have The other place to look for problems is with the customers you already have, what actual industries are they in? If you're working on something on their behalf, is there a bespoke piece of software that they're trying to get you to build? Maybe their problem is common in the industry and there's a generic software solution that you could build. You're already getting intimate with a problem, and can build on it from there. Just start building <LOCATION> anything is good practice. It doesn't even really matter. Before Basecamp, <PERSON> and <PERSON> were working on something completely different that didn't turn out to be a major commercial success, but it was very helpful for honing the skills to create Basecamp. You can work for clients and pay the bills, but also work on something for yourself, even if it's kind of halfway stupid, because that's the practice you need for when the good idea actually comes to you. If the great idea comes to you, and it's literally your first idea, you're probably going to blow it. You're probably going to squander it because you've had no practice on some dummy problems. Thoughts we've shared How does it compare to…? That's a common question you often hear when you suggest a product to someone. They already have something, and they want to know how the thing you're recommending compares to the thing they already have. But it's an impossible question to answer . - Jason Fried Live design review for <PERSON> Another first look at the newest ONCE product and the design process. <PERSON> and <PERSON> (37signals principal designer) walk through a design review, including recent changes, what makes <US_DRIVER_LICENSE> and what doesn't, and discussed a variety of small UX improvements. Things we're excited about Introducing <PERSON> can look and feel so good, but it often doesn't out of the box. It's almost like there's a rite of passage in certain parts of the community where becoming an expert in the intricacies of every tool and its theming is required to prove you're a proper nerd. I think that's a bit silly, so I created <PERSON>: An opinionated web developer setup for Ubuntu . <PERSON> turns a fresh Ubuntu installation into a fully-configured, beautiful, and modern web development system by running a single command. - <PERSON> We're hiring! We're looking for experienced Rails programmers based in the <LOCATION>. The salary range for this position is $170,000-$201,980 USD. You'll be building new product features alongside a designer using our Shape Up methodology, as well as spending time addressing issues to make sure our apps are robust and our codebase is weed free. Meet people just like you Are you part of the Basecamp C@mmunity yet? It's the place where long-time users and folks brand new to the platform exchange ideas about improving the way they work. You'll learn from small teams helping each other stay on top of a project, new businesses showing how they bring calm to a growing team, and even non-profit groups like teachers using Basecamp to coordinate projects between staff and parents. Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Shape Up - it's not just for products We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Hey there- We talk about Shape Up a lot. After all, it's the way we work and central to how we're able to ship a lot of products and features quickly, with small teams. Shape Up is focused on product development, but a lot of it is applicable to any situation. Here's an example of how we applied the concept of shaping to the marketing campaign we did for the HEY Calendar launch. Setting boundaries This is really a question of "appetite", or how much time are we willing to invest in this? We're continually experimenting with new marketing channels and highlighting different products. In general, our maximum appetite is a single cycle. We only have three people on the marketing team, so devoting one or two people for a whole cycle is a lot. Smaller, <DATE_TIME> projects might be something like updates to the <LOCATION> website or a single feature video. HEY <PERSON> is almost a whole product in itself, so we were willing to devote two people to it for <DATE_TIME>, or half a cycle. Shaping the work "Shaping" is about setting the team up for success by clarifying the problem/goal and thinking through the general solution. The work isn't specified down to individual elements or tasks, but the overall solution is spelled out. And, we try to address any open questions or rabbit holes we could see up front. We started with a few possible campaign themes , each with several elements in mind… a longer form "anthem" video, a series of videos about specific features, and a new landing page that showed HEY <PERSON> and Calendar together. We then promoted all of these creative assets on LinkedIn and YouTube. After discussing the options, we decided to keep it simple. Since HEY Calendar is all new, it was more important to show how it actually worked than to spend a lot of time on an elaborate brand video. Also, we could just add a dedicated page for the new feature to <URL> instead of trying to cram ALL the features on one. Finally, we chose a "Best of Both" theme that highlights how HEY <PERSON> combines the utility of digital calendars with the personality of paper calendars - something that differentiates it from Apple Calendar and Google Calendar. Here's the final pitch , and how we shared it in the Marketing Kickoff 🥾 before the cycle started. Handing it off to the team Here's the project in <LOCATION> . In the pitch, we outlined what each of the use cases might look like, but there was a lot more to actually bring the ideas to life. We didn't produce that list of ideas exactly, and that's okay. We expect that things will be cut and added along the way, just as when developing new features. And, here's a playlist of the final work ! If you're curious about other ways we use Shape Up in non-product work, drop me a line . Thoughts we've shared Why am I still doing this? <DATE_TIME>, 37signals celebrates its 25th anniversary! Founder <PERSON> blogs about why he's still in it , and why he's as motivated as ever. A Spin-Off Story On the REWORK Podcast, we talk about spinning off products . They stress the value of keeping contracts simple and how once the handover is done, it's best to take a hands-off approach and let the new team run things. They share their experiences with boards and underline the need for trust and flexibility. Things we're excited about New feature alerts! We've just revamped an essential part of HEY - working with long email threads! Before, one click expanded all of them, which was disorienting. Now, you can take a peek into individual messages , while the rest stay in place. In <LOCATION>, you'll definitely want to check out References, a new feature that automatically ties related things together ! No more "Where was that original message?" or "What happened to the card for this?" References appear in a separate tab alongside comments. The next ONCE product… Nope, sorry. Not going to tell you what it is yet. But if you watch or listen in to this recent podcast episode, we've been dropping some clues and an exciting announcement about the price point . Until next time, - <PERSON>, COO at 37signals
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Basecamp: Get help from the <LOCATION> support team We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine There are no stupid questions. For pre-sales questions, existing customers who need a hand, or other inquiries, contact us and we'll get back to you within <DATE_TIME>. What do you need help with? Required This helps make sure you get the right answer fast. Please select one… I can't access my account I have a question before I sign up I want to request a feature I have a billing question I'm not receiving emails I'm confused about how something works I think something is broken Other What's your question, comment, or issue? Required Share all the details. The more we know, the better we can help you. Send us a file, screenshot, or document Hold the shift key to select multiple files. What's your email address? Required This is where we'll get back to you. Double check that it's right. What's your account URL? Example: <URL> Send support request "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point" "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point"
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Basecamp: Mastering Basecamp We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Ready to get started with Basecamp? Basecamp Basics Overview School is in session! Get a preview of the Basecamp Basics series - think of this as your class syllabus. Understanding the Home Screen How to add your logo, pin your most important projects, view projects in a list, and jump between projects with a quick keyboard command. What is a Project? To understand how Basecamp works, it's important to understand what a project is - this video breaks down the four most common uses for a project. Starting a Project Before starting your first project, learn about invite-only and all-access projects, project tools, and managing tools within a project. Inviting People to Collaborate Basecamp shines when it comes to collaboration - learn how to invite people to your account, add them to a project, and set their involvement level. Setting Up Notifications Personalize your notification settings. Whether you want them <DATE_TIME>, every day, or need to temporarily turn them off, this video walks you through it. Take your Basecamp knowledge to the next level. 10 Features You Might Have Missed Check out 10 features in <LOCATION> you might not know about - from customizing your home screen to marking a notification as unread. 10 Hidden Features in Basecamp From changing your accent colors to closing comment threads - this video shows 10 Basecamp features even power users may not know about. Working with To-Dos Breaking down your work into tasks is critical for managing any type of project. This video does a deep dive into <LOCATION>'s To-do tool, including some tips to make working with to-dos even easier. Working with Clients Looking to work with clients inside of <LOCATION>? This video walks you through adding clients to your account, adding them to a project, and controlling what parts of a project they can see. Project Templates Instead of creating the same type of Basecamp projects over and over again, save time by creating a <LOCATION> template. You can even assign to-dos and set relative due dates in advance. Organizing Work with Card Table Want to visually see work that progresses through stages? This video walks you through using Card Table - our unique take on kanban. Automatic Check-ins Ask recurring questions and gather answers all in one place. Replace status calls or meetings while keeping everything on the record. Communication Tools Basecamp communication tools are intentionally different from one another. In this video, learn about the three main tools - Message Board, Chat, and Pings - and when to use each one. Customizing Project Tools One of the best ways to personalize a project is to customize the project tools. This video walks through how and why to change, rename, and duplicate tools. Using the Message Board The Message Board is the perfect place to make announcements, pitch ideas, pose a question, or share progress. And in many cases, it can replace emails. Connecting to an Outside Service With Basecamp's Doors feature, you can connect to an outside service, external platform, or online file - all from within a <LOCATION> project. Hill Charts Visually track your To-do list progress with Hill Charts. Quickly see what hasn't been started, what's moving forward, and where work might be stuck. See the Big Picture Overseeing multiple projects? Basecamp has several ways to see high-level overviews of everything that's happening in your account. Customizing Basecamp for your language Basecamp was built in English, but you can use other languages anywhere you can enter text. This video walks through what areas you can customize, including tool names, message categories, and templates. Get educated on features in <DATE_TIME> or less! Grouping To-dos in Basecamp Want your to-do list to be even more detailed? In <LOCATION>, you can create sections within a to-do list to divide your tasks by category, department, priority, or status. Use Boosts for Quick Replies Not everything requires a long response. Sometimes a quick emoji will do the trick! In Basecamp, you can "boost" a message, document, or chat message instead of replying with a lengthier reply. <PERSON>'s Focus Mode When you need to shut out distractions and get some work done, you need Focus Mode. Temporarily turn off all incoming notifications and pings so you can focus, and when you're ready, they'll be waiting for you. "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point" "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point"
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Basecamp: Basecamp Help We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Basecamp 3 & 4 Basecamp 2 Basecamp Classic "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point" "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point"
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Basecamp: New in Basecamp We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine A collection of new features we've just launched in <LOCATION>! Hill Charts let you track your to-do lists from figuring things out to completion. With the new <LOCATION>, you can now see all your Hill Charts, across your entire account, on one screen. Project templates are a game changer when you do the same kind of work over and over again. We made some improvements to make working with clients and templates easier. Now you can choose what clients see (and what stays private) from inside the template. Public links let you share parts of <LOCATION> with people outside your account. We made some improvements to publicly-shared content, including a visual update and a new feature to make public links even more useful. We improved scheduling events in <LOCATION>, including adding two new features - one-click access for video calls and everyday language support. Pings are an essential communication tool in <LOCATION>. But when you have a lot of pings with a lot of people, it's hard to tell conversations apart. We fixed that! Now you can give your pings a name and add an image so they're easier to identify. Need to track time so you can bill your client? Want to know who's spending how much time on what? Introducing Timesheet, an add-on that makes tracking time simple. Track time spent on to-dos, cards, docs, and more without ever leaving Basecamp. See everything that's unassigned across your projects on a single page. Under Activity, you'll see the new report: <PERSON> work. Assign tasks and set deadlines to ensure nothing slips through the cracks. It's now easier to make quick edits to titles of projects, tool names, documents, messages and more without ever leaving the page. Simply click and make your changes. Now in <LOCATION>, linking to a message, to-do, card, event, document, or file automatically creates a Reference, instantly tying related things together. Card Tables help visualize tasks in a workflow, like bug fixes or design requests. Now it's possible to share a Card Table with people outside of your account. Turn on a public link and anyone with the link can view it without logging into <LOCATION>. Make your home screen even more personal… and colorful! Now you can customize your home screen with images and colors. Project templates are handy when you create the same kind of project over and over. Until now, the only way to make a project template was to start from scratch. Now you can create a template from an existing project. Duplicating to-do list and project templates has also been added. You've always been able to move individual items from one <LOCATION> project to another - like a single message, to-do list, or card. Now you can move an entire tool from one project to another. Sometimes you need to quickly see how a project is going. How far along is it? Are things moving forward as planned or are there concerns? With Move the Needle , your team can visually communicate how a project is doing - right from the top of the page. The activity page shows everything that's happening across all of your projects. But sometimes it can be challenging to find what's important - like what your team is working on, or projects that you really care about. Now you can filter recent activity to only show what you need to see. When you have a lot of images in the Docs & Files tool, it can be difficult to flip through them quickly. Not anymore! You can now see an image preview and cycle through photos, videos, and files in just one click. With our latest product update, you can now group similar projects together on your home screen into piles we call <PERSON>. Arrange your projects by team, client, or time period for more visual clarity over your work. You've always been able to send links to individual documents to someone outside your Basecamp account. And now, you can send access to entire folders for people outside your account to view or download. With the Doors feature, you've always been able to connect to an outside product or service. But now, we've added the options to upload a custom image to better identify the link. Now you can go as far forward or backward in the Lineup ! Also, Admins can add markers for all relevant, company-wide events. Now in <LOCATION>, you have the option to change your time preferences. You can choose to see your time with the <DATE_TIME> settings (<DATE_TIME>) or the <DATE_TIME> time clock. Now adding events to the calendar, scheduling a message to post later, and even seeing time stamps in <LOCATION> rooms are easy to read, no matter where in the world you live. We've added the option of turning off reminders for events & assignments! Now you can choose to be reminded about upcoming stuff, or not. We've updated how you choose dates in <LOCATION>! No more clicking and clicking until you break your mouse button. "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point" "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point"
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Basecamp: Where we came from We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Born out of desperate necessity to stop embarrassing ourselves in front of our clients, the story of how <LOCATION> was born is likely your story, too. Hey there - I'm <PERSON>, one of the co-founders here. I've been running 37signals - the business that makes Basecamp - for <DATE_TIME>. People often ask me why we built Basecamp. They've never seen anything like it before, so they're curious where the idea came from. I wish I could credit a spark of genius, or some deep insight. But I can't. Truth is, we built Basecamp out of desperate necessity . We needed it bad. Without it, we were embarrassing ourselves. Way back when, we used to be a design firm. As we grew, we kept taking on more and more projects. We thought we could handle it, while still providing the same level of service, but we couldn't. We were fooling ourselves. Sound familiar? It wasn't that we didn't have the skills - we just didn't have the right tools, nor the method, to juggle the additional workload. We were disorganized, we were dropping balls, and stuff was slipping. Quality was suffering, and, as is often the case in situations like this, our clients noticed before we noticed. That was the especially painful and uncomfortable part. We needed a better way to manage projects, track feedback, and make progress. <PERSON>, chat, spreadsheets, calls, scattered documents, information here, there, and everywhere just wasn't cutting it. Systems like that work for <DATE_TIME>, and then they fall apart fast - especially as you grow and add more people to the mix. We looked around and tried a few things, but the popular tools we tried simply didn't cut it. So we had to build our own project management system from scratch. We focused on building a simple, straightforward collection of tools that could track work so everyone knew who was doing what, keep feedback and revisions on the record, centralize communication so no one missed anything, and schedule important milestones. We started using the system with our clients. They kept asking "What is this? We could totally use this for our own projects!" And that's when the lightbulb went on - maybe this is a product for others, and not just for us? If we need it, surely others need it. So we tweaked it, tightened it up, polished the rough edges, and put it on the market. It was an instant hit. Turns out, tens of thousands of other companies had similar struggles managing their projects, and needed what we needed. And <DATE_TIME> released it, it was generating more revenue for us than our web design business. So we stopped doing web design and have been focused on building <LOCATION> ever since. Based on feedback, and our own ideas, we've made thousands of improvements over <DATE_TIME>, with so much more to come. Basecamp defined a category, and continues to constantly push that category forward in innovative ways. It's been an incredible ride so far, and we have so many people to thank. But most of all, we feel a deep sense of responsibility to continue to make the best product we can for companies who desperately seek a better way to work. We're here for them, <DATE_TIME> and running. Thanks for reading, and for giving Basecamp a try . You can always contact me directly if you have any questions at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> . I look forward to hearing from you. <PERSON>founder & CEO
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Basecamp: Basecamp stands with the underdogs We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Freelancer? Underfunded non-profit? Small team feeling stuck in a large enterprise? Start-up battling established competitors? You're our people. What do they got? A big team, lots of money, a strong brand, seemingly unlimited resources, panache, reputation, all that. They're established. They're your competitors. You want to look away, but you see them everywhere. Their ads on your social, their name in the media, your dream clients on their website. But you know what else they got? Bigger company bloat. Overflowing obligations. Narratives to uphold. Appearances to maintain. Entitlement. Too much overhead. They're slow. They're conservative. They talk too much. They've stopped taking risks. They're resting on their laurels, gliding on their reputation. They're on defense. What they've really got is a lot to lose. What do you got? Hunger. Drive. Grit. Scrappiness. Independence. You're on offense. You don't have enough, which is why you're dangerous. You have no choice but to be clever and creative. To make up for what you don't have with something they can't have: The underdog spirit. You can move. You can adjust. You can adapt. You can get it done while they're still stuck deciding what to do. Small is not a stepping stone. Small is not less than. It's greater than. It's faster than. It's better than. Savor your position. You don't get to be the underdog forever. The baton will be passed. But for now, it's your magic wand. Use it. Basecamp is built for you. Go get it. We stand with the underdogs Thanks for reading, and for giving Basecamp a try . You can always contact me directly if you have any questions at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> . I look forward to hearing from you. <PERSON>founder & CEO
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Basecamp: Basecamp for Small Business We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Small businesses are our favorite businesses. For <DATE_TIME>, we've kept our company small, sharp, and profitable - on purpose. Because small is not less than. It's greater than. It's faster than. It's friendlier than. It's better than. We're for the Fortune 5,000,000 Most big software companies fight over the Fortune 500. The whales, the thousand-seat contracts, the enterprise deals. They can have them. Our favorite customers are the Fortune 5,000,000. The small and medium-sized businesses of the world, the individual freelancers, the creative shops that do the best work, not the most work. Have 3 employees? We'd be honored to have you as a customer. Just you on your own? We're here for you. 43 folks and growing? That's what we call <PERSON> and Tall - fantastic, come on in. Small is not less than. It's greater than. It's faster than. It's friendlier than. It's closer than. It's better than. Don't be used by big Big software companies use small companies like yours to pad their customer count, but you're just the bait they hook to land the biggest trophy fish - the enterprises they're really in business to serve. Don't support those who wouldn't be proud to display you on their client list. Check out all the small businesses excited about Basecamp . Asana, <DATE_TIME>, and Smartsheets are all losing boatloads of money chasing the big accounts. <PERSON> is burning through the $400 million they raised on the same playbook. Slack was losing big before they got bailed out by Salesforce, too. Just check out these numbers . These companies can't even make their own businesses work, yet they're trying to sell you software to run yours. Why would you follow their lead? Buying from them is like taking marital advice from someone who's been divorced five times. And putting your business on their platforms puts your own business at risk. Companies that lose that much money are fundamentally unstable. Don't inherit their risk. Don't make their problems your problems. Tools and lessons from the small business trenches You don't get to lose money like they do. Instead, you have to make it work. That means doing the great work that small organizations must do to survive, thrive, and stand out. Basecamp can absolutely help you with that. Our business is better because it runs on <LOCATION>, and we're confident yours can be too. With our new pricing, plus everything new in <LOCATION> , it's time to give Basecamp another look. A thoroughly innovative product paired with a unique perspective, outstanding customer service, and unbeatable value - the best combo in the business. Not to mention Basecamp can simplify your operations, and reduce your costs, by replacing a handful of other products you use. Check out these before and after stories . And be sure to check out our books - they're full of original perspective and pragmatic, practical lessons learned from running a long-term, profitable business. We're in your corner Finally, we answer to no one but you and us. We don't have investors (intentionally), we don't have a board of directors (intentionally), we're never going public (intentionally). We don't have to juice numbers to move stock prices, push upsells on you to hit revenue targets, or manipulate valuations to make venture capitalists even richer. We're an independent, self-sufficient company focused on making great stuff for our customers - just like you are. Stable and reliable, <DATE_TIME> and running. Buying Basecamp is investing in yourself, your team, and your company. You in the foreground, us in the background - together we'll show them what small can do. Let's join up. Thanks for reading, and for giving Basecamp a try . You can always contact me directly if you have any questions at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> . I look forward to hearing from you. <PERSON>founder & CEO
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Basecamp: Kill overkill We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Amass what you need, but ignore even more. Business is often seen as the art of acquisition. Acquiring talent, customers, revenue, profits, mindshare, marketshare. Building and growing requires consumption, addition, parlaying some of this into a lot of that. But the smartest businesses - the ones that tend to stick around for the long haul - know that existence is also about avoidance. Avoiding careening variable costs, avoiding getting involved with things that aren't core to your business, avoiding spending time on things that don't matter, avoiding bad investments, avoiding people who don't help you prosper, and even avoiding customers who aren't the right fit. However, there's something even more fundamental to avoid. It would be easy to call it "complexity" but that's not quite it. Complexity can be necessary, and intricacy can be quite beautiful - just stare into a <NRP> mosaic and you'll know it. So complexity isn't the issue. Overkill is the issue. Avoiding overkill is the real cheat code. That's how you jump levels. It's how you make a lot more progress with a lot less effort. Overkill is the dust that settles on the stuff that took a lot of energy to build or buy, but turned out not to be necessary. The over-engineered, over-designed, over-hired, over-litigated, the over-spent, over-promised, over-deliberated. Overkill is the policy that was written but never enacted. The technology that was purchased that was never used. The seven steps that could be handled in two. The nine people in a meeting made for three. The business equivalent of the 12 bedroom house for a family of four. The cooks when you don't even have a kitchen. Overkill is using five different products to run a single project. Overkill is an seven-stage interview process that exhausts everyone involved. Overkill is acting like a company 100x your size. Overkill is buying what they bought but that you don't need. Overkill is paying thousands for something worth hundreds. Overkill is hoping that losing more will turn into a win. In <DATE_TIME>, there's nothing we've tried to avoid more at 37signals than overkill. In the things we do, in the way we work, in the things we buy, in the things we use. And, especially, in the products we make for our ourselves and our customers. Basecamp and HEY are built to do what they need to do, in the most straightforward, elegant, and enjoyable way, and nothing more. So you can avoid overkill too. <DATE_TIME> is an opportunity to find just right. To toss that policy that's in the way. To slim down the stack. To sharpen things up. To eliminate the work that doesn't need to be done. To polish the scratched glass so you can see through again. Amass what you need, but ignore even more. Kill overkill. Thanks for reading, and for giving Basecamp a try . You can always contact me directly if you have any questions at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> . I look forward to hearing from you. <PERSON>founder & CEO
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Basecamp: Leaving <LOCATION> Isn't For Everyone We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine They promised the cloud would be cheaper, faster, and easier. For us, the savings never materialized and the team never shrunk. After using clouds from both Amazon and Google extensively over <DATE_TIME>, we finally had enough of the outrageous bills and the ever-increasing complexity. So in <DATE_TIME>, we pulled <LOCATION>, HEY , and five other heritage apps out of AWS and onto our own hardware - without adding any new staff. The bottomline: Leaving the cloud will save us ~$10 million over <DATE_TIME>. That's a reduction in our infrastructure costs of between half and two-thirds. Our cloud exit in full detail Why we're leaving the cloud Five values guiding our cloud exit The hardware we need for our cloud exit has arrived <LOCATION> exit pays off in performance too We have left the cloud The Big Cloud FAQ We stand to save $7m over <DATE_TIME> from our cloud exit Our cloud exit has already yielded $1m/year in savings It's <DATE_TIME> to miss our <US_DRIVER_LICENSE> exit Our cloud-exit savings will now top ten million over <DATE_TIME> Introducing <PERSON> 1.0 <PERSON> 2: Thou need not PaaS Our switch to <PERSON> is complete Keeping the lights on while leaving the cloud De-cloud and de-k8s - bringing our apps back home Servers can last a long time Don't be fooled by serverless The only thing worse than cloud pricing is the enterprisey alternatives Sovereign clouds Our cloud exit made headlines The Register: Save $7 million on cloud by spending $600k on servers, says 37signals' <PERSON>: Basecamp decided to leave the cloud after spending $3.2 million in <DATE_TIME> TechCrunch: Could machine learning refresh the cloud debate? Data Centre Dynamics: 37signals expects to save $7m over <DATE_TIME> after moving off of the cloud Network World: Cloud vs on-prem: SaaS vendor 37signals bails out of the public cloud Banerjee: Leaving the Cloud IT Web: Why cloud isn't always the answer
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Basecamp: Before & After We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine We asked our customers what it was like before they used Basecamp and how it's improved after switching. Wow, what a difference! Our customers tried everything before switching to Basecamp; email, spreadsheets, Google Docs, Asana, Trello, <LOCATION>, <LOCATION>, <DATE_TIME>, phone calls and texts, stickies on a wall, whiteboards, meeting after meeting, etc. Slack made both me and my laptop cry with how it took over my working life. <PERSON>, CoverageBook I felt disorganized. Pieces of paper everywhere. I was constantly making new lists, losing old ones, crossing off items and adding new ones. I was forever worried things were slipping and not getting done. My brain was tired. <PERSON>, <PERSON> It was a disorganized mess with a splash of chaotic disaster. way too many tools that led to more balls getting dropped that work actually getting done. Once we tried to implement a project management system on top of the tools my team was about ready to slam their monitors against the post-it note covered whiteboard. <PERSON>, For the City Network I felt like I was floating in space. And, so were my projects. And, so were my people. I couldn't get a true handle on anything. <PERSON>, <DATE_TIME> There were a lot of holes in our communication which led to projects being lost in the shuffle and/or not done on time. Tracking down communications and documenting tasks was nearly impossible. <PERSON>, Mastermind Media and Consulting Group Inundated with emails - easy to lose track as people would contact via various mediums and conversations can get lost in the back and forth. <PERSON>, The Breakfast Club My company used Trello before a department switched over to Basecamp. Trello was a nightmare in my opinion. It was difficult to understand and flow when conducting or even being part of a project. <PERSON>, NBT Bank We had a hard time keeping clients on track with their to-do items - projects frequently fell behind both because of missed communication but also because there wasn't anything reminding clients of their responsibilities and the tasks they had to complete. Amber Hinds, Road Warrior Creative Before basecamp it felt like sitting in a wind tunnel with projects, emails, and questions flying at you. Of course, not having any idea what may be coming next. Every team member was working alone; during catch up meetings that became very clear. <PERSON>, World Elite Asana did not have very good analytics and, despite being designed by a few former Facebook employees, was not very user-friendly. Honestly, it has way too much stuff going on. <PERSON>, <PERSON>, impossible, difficult, overwhelming. It was honestly a hot mess. I would lose track of deadlines left and right and they would creep up on me at <DATE_TIME>. My boss would ask me a question about a past project and I would struggle to hunt down my notes regarding it (because they were all in email). As hard as we tried to stay organized we had a hard time managing our projects and work flow. When dealing with design projects for over 90 practice sites it was like getting lost in a giant corn maze. <PERSON>, ProHealth Physicians Endless creation and updating of lists, endless beating up already busy staff to keep lists up to date. Endless deadlines missed or client expectations let down due to simple logistical hinderance. <PERSON>, Munday & Cramer It was just task after task in <LOCATION>. <DATE_TIME> we completed a ton of tasks, but in the end, the project still felt incomplete. Trying to figure out what was missing by scrolling an infinite chat room was a fun way to reinvent the treasure hunt, but not a so nice way to manage a project. <PERSON>, Bishop Games It felt like I had a million balls juggling… not sure which one would drop, but very aware that it would. There was too many emails and attachments with different versions of projects. <PERSON>, Severn School Things changed for the better once they switched. 9 out of 10 Basecamp customers report having a better handle on their business, 8 out of 10 say their teams are more self-sufficient, and 6 out of 10 have fewer meetings. Simply put, we get more work done, quicker, and better. Productivity is up. Errors are down. Clients are happier. <PERSON>, Moore Communications Group Execution of projects. Instead of drowning in an endless chain of emails, there is clear, and easy accountability meaning tasks actually get done! <PERSON>, LATE Nation & <PERSON> I no longer have to wonder whether I've asked for something to be done or whether it has in fact been done. Every member of my team is more accountable than we were before <LOCATION>. <PERSON>, <PERSON> We are consistently meeting deadlines because all the facts, files and comments are in one place. And everyone is accountable for their contribution to the project. Very user friendly. <PERSON>, Kim Curry Design We now have vastly improved task assignment, follow-up and accountability as well as greatly enhanced internal communications. We have stopped using email for internal communications almost entirely. <PERSON>, Sarwani Systems For the first time in a long time our team is truly collaborating, and everyone is moving in the same direction, with the same goals. It's truly remarkable how quickly things have changed in <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, WP Site Care Having a single location for messages, files, to-dos and timeline has kept everyone on the same page. <PERSON>, Autotrader I say things once instead of many times to many people. <PERSON>, <URL>s, <LOCATION>, The Bed and Barrel at <LOCATION> As the business owner, I feel more connected and aware of what is going on in the office when I'm away. It's easy to see what needs to be done with deadlines and who is responsible for the task. <PERSON>, Law Offices of <PERSON> Since we've been using <LOCATION>, our communication is drastically better and deadlines are met without drama. <PERSON>, Full Sail University We have actually accomplished things that have been waiting forever to get done. <PERSON>, <PERSON> LLC Everyone's on the same page. Many of our people are not very organized naturally, so basecamp is a godsend. <PERSON>, APEX Our company has grown immensely in organization and efficiency. We have everything organized according to clients, projects, employees, etc., resulting in clear and concise communication amongst employees and with clients. <PERSON>, Health Economic Advisors Inc. Different time-zones are no longer an insurmountable obstacle. Stefano, <URL> Because the platform we used previously was so cumbersome and time-intensive to maintain, we used to have a person dedicated almost exclusively to managing the marketing production workflow for our three brands. Now I spend <DATE_TIME> a month setting things up, and the process manages itself. <PERSON>, One Click I've tried a million things with clients. I work really closely with them, and finding something clients will use to collaborate with me is difficult. My clients just "get" Basecamp, right away, and use it all the time. They like that they can use it via email. They also love that it has everything they need in one area. It's fantastic. <PERSON>, Wildfire Studios We don't have to dig through a million emails anymore. <PERSON>, Six <PERSON>, I ran my freelance web development business basically from a spreadsheet, then I moved to Basecamp and my life is so much less stressful. Basecamp has increased my happiness exponentially. <PERSON>, Sad Robot Software All our team communications were spread over email and random google docs. Basecamp helps us all stay in sync in one place. <PERSON>, Intelligent Change Communication and time management has become more of a strong suit for us. <PERSON>, Eastern Controls Inc. Information is flowing like water. A lot more transparency. Everyone is on the same page and knows the same information at the same point in time. No more secrets, closed doors, and blindspots. <PERSON>, Penn State Office of Emergency Management The <DATE_TIME> interaction between all our teams increased by 70%! Our entire team is volunteer, and Basecamp allowed us to avoid meetings, which made me a hero! <PERSON>, NOLA Church People can catch up on a project, regardless of when they joined the team. <PERSON>, 1000heads We are organized and free to get things done. We used to wonder what everyone was doing. Now we move forward gracefully. <PERSON>, <PERSON> rounds became saner. Now the team can share their thoughts in a single thread, instead of multiple emails. <PERSON>, IBFD No need for <DATE_TIME> standup meetings. <PERSON>, <LOCATION> We gained control and could work with more projects without getting more stressed out! <PERSON>, <DATE_TIME> It has eliminated the need for a lot of extra communication and reduced a lot of miscommunication between my team members. <PERSON>, Clark Partners Realty Group A better sense of shared responsibility and accountability for our team success. <PERSON>, Sid Williams Theatre Society Less problems, down time, questions from the group. Once implemented, everyone knows where to obtain the information without asking for it every single time. They know basecamp has everything relevant to their day-to-day. <PERSON> can be forgotten, nothing gets lost, and everyone knows what the other is doing. <PERSON>, Superhelden-Training GbR Basecamp was the only tool that I did not need to explain how to use to my team. It saved a lot of time for me. <PERSON>, Redfrost Design & Development Project-based communication is finally starting to go into one place (Basecamp!). It's no longer split between email, Google Hangouts, and in-person chats. <PERSON>, eps Communications As the small business owner, it has allowed me to have the confidence to not have a brick and mortar office. <PERSON>, <PERSON> We generate zero emails. Action items never get lost in the shuffle anymore. New ideas and projects actually get off the ground now. <PERSON>, MPI Atlantic Canada Chapter
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Basecamp: See where projects really stand with Hill Charts We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine A Basecamp exclusive way to track progress. For <DATE_TIME> we've used Basecamp To-dos to track our own work here at Basecamp. But for bigger projects with dozens or hundreds of tasks, you need a way to see the bigger picture . Is the project going to be done on time? Are people stuck? To solve this problem, we built an entirely new idea into Basecamp To-dos . It's a 10,000-foot view of projects that answers the hard questions about where things really stand. Introducing the Hill Chart: The idea: work is like a hill Every piece of work has two phases. First there's an uphill phase where you figure out your approach. You have a basic idea about the task, but you haven't figured out what the solution is going to look like or how to solve all the unknowns. Eventually you reach a point where there aren't any more unsolved problems. That's like standing at the top of the hill . You can see clearly all the way down the other side. Then the downhill phase is just about execution. A Hill Chart from a real project All of our development projects are made of a set of To-do Lists. We create a To-do List for each piece of work that we can make progress on independently. Now to track progress, we turn on Hill Chart tracking for each list. This will reveal a Hill Chart on the top of the To-dos screen with a dot for the list we're tracking. After adding a few more lists, we click Update on the Hill Chart and drag the dots for those lists into position. Now anybody who checks on the project can see the status of these three lists. Two of them are over the hill - full of certainty, with just execution left. One is still on the uphill slope, which means there are unsolved problems or open questions. Note how that the status is human generated, not computer generated. This reflects a real person's feeling of the work at this moment. And because the status is attached to lists instead of individual To-dos, we get a big picture view of all the work. Checking in on progress over time Every time someone updates the Hill Chart, a new snapshot is saved to the project's history. This gives managers a ton of context about what's moving on the project and what isn't without peppering the team with questions. Updates can be annotated with commentary, and you can even comment on or Boost someone else's Hill Chart update. This enables a new level of fast, asynchronous communication about high-level progress on projects. More well-defined work Sometimes trying to position a list on the Hill Chart helps you to better structure the work. On a recent project we were building a feature to notify people when an Event was rescheduled. That dot sat there for <DATE_TIME> without moving. Why weren't we making progress? After a short talk with the team, we realized that it was unclear where to place the dot because part of the work was figured out and part wasn't. The back-end work was solved, but there was some design work that we hadn't figured out. So where should the dot go? In a case like this, the hill is telling us to break up the list. We renamed the original list to "Notification: Delivery" and moved it over the hill to show where it really stood. Then we created two separate lists to track the front-end work that was still uphill. Redefining the To-do Lists made it easier to see what was actually going on in the project and what needed to be done next. Unknown to known, and known to done Since we adopted the Hill Chart internally at Basecamp, our teams have been communicating about progress at a level never before possible . Our intuition is the same, but now we have a way to immediately show each other where things stand. And because of the Hill Chart history, we don't need to call meetings to catch up on a project's status. It's no longer a challenge to see what's in motion and what's stuck. We can have quick, substantial conversations asynchronously about where to focus next or how to break up a problem. Try the Hill Chart on your next <LOCATION> project. To use it, navigate to any To-do List and choose "Track this on <LOCATION>" from the Options menu (•••) in the top-right corner.
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Basecamp: JUST LET ME DO MY JOB We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine JUST LET ME DO MY JOB. When we released <LOCATION> over <DATE_TIME>, we needed a better way to manage projects and progress as a team. <PERSON>, chat, spreadsheets, calls, scattered documents, information here, there, and everywhere just wasn't cutting it. Since then, we've seen a lot of competitors begin to make similar products, but with too many confusing features to add to the chaos of packed meeting calendars and overflowing inboxes. We created the JUST LET ME DO MY JOB campaign to remind the world that there's a better way to get things done and that It Doesn't Have to Be Crazy at Work . Our campaign launched with 98 billboards, signs and posters in <LOCATION> - a city filled with a lot of people commuting to a lot of meetings about a lot of emails. We then launched a set of TV spots nationwide. With all of the devices and tools we now have, work should be getting easier, right? The Future Mail Dance Party Chief Meetings Officer Watch how two of us created, wrote, location scouted, casted, directed, produced, acted in, and edited four Basecamp TV spots using <LOCATION> with only two meetings and a couple emails. No agencies or production companies. JUST LET ME DO MY JOB was nominated as one of the 5 best Brand Strategies out of 14,000 entries around the world! <PERSON> covered the campaign during Super Bowl week. An Editor's Pick is no easy feat, especially when we're up against star-studded multimillion dollar productions. JUST LET ME DO MY JOB appears online, in podcasts and on social media. We also began partnerships with our friends at <PERSON> and Unsplash . To highlight how bosses have become one the biggest distractions in many modern workplaces, we launched the Send Your Boss to Hell Sweepstakes , giving one lucky winner the chance to to tell their boss to "Go to Hell" - literally - on a <DATE_TIME> / <DATE_TIME> getaway for two to <LOCATION>, to tour the town known as Hell. While their boss is out of the office, our winner had the much needed opportunity to catch up on all the work that actually gets done when they're not constantly interrupted by calendar tetris and zoom gloom.
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Basecamp: Basecamp Integrations We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine Get more out of <LOCATION> with these 3rd party tools! Are you a developer? Integrate your product with <LOCATION> . Use standards-based drivers to connect to Basecamp data in any <LOCATION> tool, including Excel, Tableau, Power BI, and more! Supercharge your Basecamp account with Can-Do mini-apps. Easily create Zoom meetings, mass archive, create to-dos and cards in bulk, and more! Share your team's Basecamp activity in <LOCATION> and Google Hangouts Chat. The Ultimate App for integration and automation. Seamlessly connect your favorite apps, automate tasks with ease, and create custom applications without coding. Manage and update your Basecamp to-dos from your <NRP> or Wunderlist. Build Features into Basecamp based on your processes, data, and AI. Streamline team and customer workflows in a whole new way. View and manage Basecamp to-dos without leaving your Microsoft Outlook client. Easily integrate Basecamp data with 50+ sources, including files, databases, or cloud applications. The fast way to build internal tools. Pull in data from your own database and API, and build a tool to create new Basecamp to-dos from it. SureTriggers is a web-based automation tool that allows users to connect and automate processes between different online services, applications and WordPress plugins. Automatically get Evernote & OneNote checklists and tasks in <LOCATION>. Run remote retrospectives with your teams, and create action items as Basecamp todos. Create forms that submit directly to your Basecamp to-do lists or card tables. Auto-assign and auto-set due dates on your Basecamp to-dos. Build your perfect workflow across tools and teams. Sync Basecamp to-do lists with Jira, Zendesk, HubSpot, Trello, Asana, <PERSON>, GitHub, GitLab, or Bitbucket. Automate your work day and connect Basecamp to 750+ business apps. Stay productive by connecting Basecamp with 650+ apps like <PERSON>, Slack, Zendesk and more. Continuous feedback based employee evaluation system & project profitability reporting suite. Modern HR and leave management system with iBeacon attendance tracking. The easiest way to manage employees, track vacation, sick, and paid time off. The only truly free time tracker and timesheet app for teams. Add timers to your to-dos. Time tracking and estimating inside your to-dos. Highly flexible reporting opportunities. Track time without leaving Basecamp and let Harvest turn your time into insights. Time tracker, sprint and to-do synchronization for seamless collaboration. Fast & friendly time tracking for all your Basecamp projects. Time tracking for teams using <LOCATION>: smoothest integration, best user experience, sane pricing, total privacy & security. Straightforward time tracking for Basecamp. Add timers to your to-dos. The leading automatic time tracking tool that offers user-level privacy by design. Track time easily inside Basecamp. Keep track of your work and boost your productivity. Effortless time tracking inside <LOCATION> with live sync across all devices. Enjoy clear reporting within fixed pricing for any team size. Visual time tracking for creative agencies. Done. Right. Track time effortlessly with <PERSON> Button integration for Chrome and Firefox - the simplest time tracker to help you get things done. With TrackingTime for Basecamp get automatic timesheets and in-depth time analytics. Centralize and automatize the project reporting of your software development company. Enhanced reporting & exporting capabilities for your to-dos. Power grid and export Excel are available. Track data about Basecamp usage through dashboards, gauges and reports, alongside other integrations, including Harvest and Dropbox. 100% cloud-based business intelligence and data warehousing platform. Connect, manage & visualize all your <LOCATION> and business data in a single place. DNS Check enables you to easily monitor, share, and troubleshoot DNS records. Earned Value Management (industry standard project cost management) for Basecamp. Review metrics auto generated from <LOCATION> and time tracking software. Beautiful dashboards and custom reports to keep your Basecamp projects on track. Track expiration dates and renewals and have them create Basecamp todo's automatically on expiration. Ganttify enables you to easily create gantt charts from your Basecamp projects. All your business metrics in one dashboard. View usage reporting, and manage contract renewals for all of the SaaS vendors in your organization. Track & share your Basecamp KPIs in real-time with the Numerics dashboard app for your iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV and Apple Watch. Repeating to-dos directly in <LOCATION>. Everything you need to plan a website. Build, collaborate and share professional sitemaps, diagrams, design mockups and content plans. Automatically assign a unique number to each to-do in <LOCATION>. Allows for quickly referencing and searching for to-dos. Adds labels to your to-dos and Kanban boards with customizable workflows, priorities and filters, all within Basecamp's UI. Get <DATE_TIME>, automated backups of your Basecamp account. Collect and handle website feedback and bug reports as Basecamp to-do's Use Honeybadger to get Campfire alerts about application errors, missing cron jobs, and downtime in your quest to be DevOps champions. Receive detailed bug reports from your mobile app directly to Basecamp to-dos with Instabug. Collect website feedback and bug reports directly into your Basecamp project. Gather feedback, identify bugs and collect ideas from your visitors with our simple feedback button. 10-free trial. Visualize your team's work as it flows through your process mirrored in <LOCATION>. Discover and deliver successful outcomes the Lean, Agile, Scrum and Kanban way. Easily run insightful retrospectives and team health checks with your agile teams, and publish your action items as Basecamp tasks in your to-do's. A test management tool that creates to-dos whenever a test fails, allowing you to use <LOCATION> as an issue tracker. Give users the right tools to collaborate and provide valuable feedback for you to manage. Get feedback and bug reports sent to your Basecamp projects. Collect user feedback and detailed bug reports with screenshots right into your Basecamp project. Claritee enables professionals to easily ideate, plan and collaborate on digital projects and assets. Ziflow automates file processing tasks and processes that you'd prefer to give to a robot. Monitor the status of your Basecamp projects in <LOCATION>'s powerful Customer Success Manage Platform. Leading privacy management platform. Map personal data and automate DSRs to build trust and eliminate risk. Link your Basecamp cards to your Deskpro tickets to streamline communication with users by making them easy to view and update. Create Basecamp discussions and to-dos from customer feedback. Send automatic notifications of your customer communications from Enchant's omnichannel shared inboxes to your Campfire rooms. Convert emails into to-dos, assign to-dos, mark as done in <LOCATION> when resolved in EvantoDesk (and vice-versa) and fire automations in EvantoDesk and more. Client portal for agencies and service providers. Manage all customer communication from a single place. Send automatic notifications of your customer queries to Basecamp chats. Convert help desk support tickets into Basecamp to-dos. Automated way to migrate your project management system data. Integrate team chat (Slack, MS Teams) with customer's tools (WhatsApp, SMS), and auto-send chat transcripts to Basecamp Projects, streamlining your workflow. Turn customer support emails into Basecamp discussions and to-dos. Proposal software that enables you to create Basecamp projects from signed proposals and automatically attach the signed proposal as a PDF directly within your Basecamp projects. Generate projects from accepted proposals and more. Import all your contacts and automatically generate a Basecamp project from a won proposal. Apideck helps developers build native integrations faster through one API. OAuth that just works! Ease the OAuth integration of Basecamp API <US_DRIVER_LICENSE> and interact with its API in your web and mobile applications. Unified and proxy APIs for ticketing. Use Truto to build native integrations faster. Make Your Apps Chat & Dance Together with 6000+ Apps! "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point" "Extremely user friendly" "Truly amazing!" "A godsend for our org" "Simple, quick, powerful" "So glad I found Basecamp" "The perfect solution" "Really great" "Outstanding" "Best app for teams" "Awesome service" "Gets better and better" "Great collaboration tool" "Great software" "Gold standard PM app" "Brilliant solution" "Clean and easy to use" "Fantastic app" "Organized and on point"
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Basecamp: Basecamp is for everyone We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine We're working hard to make sure Basecamp is accessible to anyone who'd like to use it and in step with the latest web guidelines. Our approach to accessibility <NRP> and accessible design isn't a one-time checkbox, it's a commitment to making sure everything we ship works well for all of our customers . Here's how we do it. We consider accessibility early and often. Every new feature is designed with accessibility in mind, and we aim to meet WCAG 2.1 level AA guidelines . We work directly with customers. These interviews help us validate our work and continuously improve the user experience. We scan new features for compliance. For this step, we use a browser extension like axe to make sure our desktop and mobile layouts meet the requirements. We check for visible focus indicators , so it's always clear which element on a page is focused. We make sure headings are sequential , so they provide an accurate overview of the structure of each page. We check color contrast with the aim of passing WCAG 2.1 level AA . We hide decorative elements from assistive technology. Elements that are repetitive or purely decorative create excess verbosity for users of accessible tech. We provide a "skip to main content" link at the top of each page so people can quickly bypass repetitive navigation links. We test that everything works with keyboard navigation , making sure that a mouse isn't required to perform any action throughout the app. We run automated accessibility checks as part of our system testing suite. Whenever a system test visits a page or clicks something on it, axe-core automatically scans the page to help guard against regressions. We regularly audit our apps to understand where accessibility can be improved. Get in touch if you'd like a copy of the most recent review. Suggested screen reader setup For the best experience, we recommend using the <LOCATION> desktop app along with your preferred screen reader. On iOS , we recommend using VoiceOver with the Basecamp iOS app . On Android , we recommend using Talkback with the Basecamp Android app . Questions? Concerns? Reach out to us at <EMAIL_ADDRESS> .
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Basecamp: Get more out of your Basecamp experience We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine You're invited to the <LOCATION> community: the place where long-time users and folks new to the platform exchange ideas about improving the way they work. Meet people just like you You'll learn from small teams helping each other stay on top of projects, new businesses showing how they bring calm to a growing team, and even non-profit groups like teachers using Basecamp to coordinate projects between staff and parents. They get to know one another through check-ins about what they did <DATE_TIME> and even updates about their pets. We host live video AMAs with members of the 37signals team, post spotlights of community members to hear the stories behind why and how they use <LOCATION>, and hang out at the Watercooler to banter, brainstorm, and dish about recent updates. Get in on the conversation Since community members are often the first to know about updates and deployments, their feedback about how the features work is important to us. Your experiences make an impact on the products we create . The occasional bonus…? Community members sometimes find exclusive sneak peeks of features we're working on before they're released to the general public . 🤫 Ready to join? Head to this link , answer a few short questions, and we'll send you an invitation to join the community account. We hope you and your team find it a fun and useful place to hang out!
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Basecamp: Basecamp discounts for teachers, students, and non-profits We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine We offer free accounts for teachers and students, and discounted accounts for non-profits. For education (K-12 or University) Are you a teacher or student at a K-12 school or University? Do you agree to use this Basecamp account only for classroom work? If you answered yes to both, you qualify. To claim your discount: Step 1: Sign up for <LOCATION> . Step 2 (for teachers): Right after you sign up, email us from your school account with the name of your school, the class you teach, and proof you're a teacher. We'll apply the discount after we verify everything. Step 2 (for students): Right after you sign up, email us from your school account with the name of your school, what you're studying, and when you expect to graduate. We'll apply the discount after we verify everything. For non-profits Are you part of a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization? Do you agree to use this Basecamp account only for non-profit work? If you answered yes to both, you qualify. To claim your discount: Step 1: Sign up for <LOCATION> . Step 2: Email us a copy of your 501(c)(3) paperwork right after you sign up. We'll apply the discount once we verify your status. Details, details We can only discount one account. If you need to support multiple groups, one account will give you everything you need to support them. If you've been paying for <LOCATION>, we can't refund or discount payments made before your discount started. We reserve the right to end the discount program due to chronic abuse of the free accounts or other circumstances. If we do, anyone who is already participating will continue to have their discounts applied. We just won't offer up new free or discounted accounts.
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Basecamp: The 37signals Guide to Internal Communication We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine The how, where, why, and when we communicate. Long form asynchronous? Real-time chat? In-person? Video? Verbal? Written? Via email? In Basecamp? How do we keep everyone in the loop without everyone getting tangled in everyone else's business? It's all in here. Rules of thumb, and general philosophy Below you'll find a collection of general principles we try to keep in mind at 37signals when communicating with teammates, within departments, across the company, and with the public. They aren't requirements, but they serve to create boundaries and shared practices to draw upon when we do the one thing that affects everything else we do: communicate. You can not not communicate. Not discussing the elephant in the room is communicating. Few things are as important to study, practice, and perfect as clear communication. Real-time sometimes, asynchronous most of the time. Internal communication based on long-form writing, rather than a verbal tradition of meetings, speaking, and chatting, leads to a welcomed reduction in meetings, video conferences, calls, or other real-time opportunities to interrupt and be interrupted. Give meaningful discussions a meaningful amount of time to develop and unfold. Rushing to judgement, or demanding immediate responses, only serves to increase the odds of poor decision making. Meetings are the last resort, not the first option. Writing solidifies, chat dissolves. Substantial decisions start and end with an exchange of complete thoughts, not one-line-at-a-time jousts. If it's important, critical, or fundamental, write it up, don't chat it down. Speaking only helps who's in the room, writing helps everyone. This includes people who couldn't make it, or future employees who join <DATE_TIME>. If your words can be perceived in different ways, they'll be understood in the way which does the most harm. Never expect or require someone to get back to you immediately unless it's a true emergency. The expectation of immediate response is toxic. If you have to repeat yourself, you weren't clear enough the first time. However, if you're talking about something brand new, you may have to repeat yourself for <DATE_TIME> before you're heard. Pick your repeats wisely. Poor communication creates more work. Companies don't have communication problems, they have miscommunication problems. The smaller the company, group, or team, the fewer opportunities for miscommunication. Five people in a room for <DATE_TIME> isn't a <DATE_TIME> meeting, it's a <DATE_TIME> meeting. Be mindful of the tradeoffs. Be proactive about "wait, what?" questions by providing factual context and spatial context. Factual are the things people also need to know. Spatial is where the communication happens (for example, if it's about a specific to-do, discuss it right under the to-do, not somewhere else). Communication shouldn't require schedule synchronization. Calendars have nothing to do with communication. Writing, rather than speaking or meeting, is independent of schedule and far more direct. "Now" is often the wrong time to say what just popped into your head. It's better to let it filter it through the sieve of time. What's left is the part worth saying. Ask yourself if others will feel compelled to rush their response if you rush your approach. <DATE_TIME> has a way of convincing you what you've done is good, but <DATE_TIME> has a way of telling you the truth. If you aren't sure, sleep on it before saying it. If you want an answer, you have to ask a question. People typically have a lot to say, but they'll volunteer little. Automatic questions on a regular schedule help people practice sharing, writing, and communicating. Occasionally pick random words, sentences, or paragraphs and hit delete. Did it matter? Urgency is overrated, ASAP is poison. If something's going to be difficult to hear or share, invite questions at the end. Ending without the invitation will lead to public silence but private conjecture. This is where rumors breed. Where you put something, and what you call it, matters. When titling something, lead with the most important information. Keep in mind that many technical systems truncate long text or titles. Write at the right time. Sharing something at <DATE_TIME> may keep someone at work longer. You may have some spare time on a <DATE_TIME> to write something, but putting it out there on <DATE_TIME> may pull people back into work on the weekends. Early <DATE_TIME> communication may be buried by other things. There may not be a perfect time, but there's certainly a wrong time. Keep that in mind when you hit send. Great news delivered on the heels of bad news makes both bits worse. The bad news feels like it's being buried, the good news feels like it's being injected to change the mood. Be honest with each by giving them adequate space. Time is on your side, rushing makes conversations worse. Communication is lossy, especially verbal communication. Every hearsay hop adds static and chips at fidelity. Whenever possible, communicate directly with those you're addressing rather than passing the message through intermediaries. Ask if things are clear. Ask what you left out. Ask if there was anything someone was expecting that you didn't cover. Address the gaps before they widen with time. Consider where you put things. The right communication in the wrong place might as well not exist at all. When someone relies on search to find something it's often because it wasn't where they expected something to be. Communication often interrupts, so good communication is often about saying the right thing at the right time in the right way with the fewest side effects. Communicating day-to-day This section includes specific examples of how we apply our philosophy day-to-day across the company. Since communication often interrupts, valuing each other's time and attention is a critical consideration. Keeping people in the loop is important, but asking them to follow along with everything is a distraction. That's why we follow reliable, predictable methods to share the right kind of information at the right time in the right place. Basic toolset 98% of our internal communication happens inside <LOCATION>. That means all company-wide discussions, social chatter, project-related work, sharing of ideas, internal debates, automatic check-ins, status updates, policy updates, and all official decisions and announcements all happen in <LOCATION>. A single centralized tool keeps everything together and creates a single source of truth for everyone across the company. We don't use email internally (we do externally), we don't use separate chat tools like Slack or Teams, and we rarely have in-person meetings. We do use Zoom for the occasional video conference <DATE_TIME> people. And we occasionally discuss a pull request in GitHub. Automatic <DATE_TIME>: "What did you work on <DATE_TIME>?" Every workday at <DATE_TIME>, <LOCATION> (the product) automatically asks every employee "What did you work on <DATE_TIME>?" Whatever people write up is shared with everyone in the company. Everyone's responses are displayed on a single page, grouped by date, so anyone who's curious about what's happening across the company can simply read from top to bottom. And if you have a question about anything, you can comment on anyone's "what did you work on <DATE_TIME>?" check-in to keep the conversation in context. This routine is about loose accountability and strong reflection. Writing up what you did every day is a great way to think back about what you accomplished and how you spent your time. Some people just jot down a few bullets. Others write multi-paragraph stories to share - and document - the thinking behind their work. There are no requirements here. We just ask everyone to write in their own style. Automatic <DATE_TIME>: "What will you be working on <DATE_TIME>?" Every <DATE_TIME>, Basecamp automatically asks everyone "What will you be working on <DATE_TIME>?" This is a chance for everyone to lay out the big picture of <DATE_TIME>. It's not about regurgitating individual tasks, or diving headlong into the minutia of <DATE_TIME>. It's generally just your 10,000 foot view of <DATE_TIME>. The big picture items, the general themes. It sets your mind up for the work ahead, and, collectively, it gives everyone a good sense of what's happening across the company <DATE_TIME>. Automatic occasionally: "Social questions" <DATE_TIME>, or once a month, Basecamp will automatically ask everyone a social-style question. "What books are you reading?" Or "Try anything new lately?" Or "Anything inspire you lately?" Or "Seen any great design recently?" Or "What did you do <DATE_TIME>?" These entirely optional questions are meant to shake loose some stuff that you'd love to share with everyone else, but you hadn't had an opportunity to do so. This kind of internal communication helps grease the social gears. This is especially useful for remote teams, like ours. When we know each other a little better, we work a little better together. ← Reflect <DATE_TIME>: Heartbeats Heartbeats summarize the last ~6-weeks of work for a given team, department, or individual (if that person is a department of one). They're written by the lead of the group, and they're meant for everyone in the company to read. They summarize the big picture accomplishments, they detail the little things that mattered, and they generally highlight the importance of the work. They'll also shine a light on challenges and difficulties along the way. They're a good reminder that it's not all sunshine all the time. On balance, Heartbeats are wonderful to write, fun to read, and they help everyone - including those not directly involved with the work - reflect on jobs well done and progress well made. → Project <DATE_TIME>: Kickoffs Kickoffs are essentially the opposites of Heartbeats. Rather than reflect, they project. They're all about what the team plans on taking on over <DATE_TIME>. Projects, initiatives, revamps, whatever it might be, if it's on the slate, it gets summarized in the Kickoff. While Kickoffs detail specific work for a specific group, they're also meant for full-company consumption. Like Heartbeats, they're written by the team lead. Kickoffs are broad in scope, so they don't cover all the details in the work ahead - the teams doing the work are the ones that wade into those weeds. We don't want to overwhelm everyone with details that don't matter. If anyone's curious about something included in a Kickoff, they're free to post a comment and ask a question. Whenever relevant: Announcements Occasionally we update an internal policy. Something about vacation time, or a new benefit, or reiterating that 40 hour <DATE_TIME> means <DATE_TIME> weeks. When we have something to announce company-wide, we don't send an email. <PERSON> is decentralized and there's no permanent record in a permanent place everyone can see. Instead, we post it either to the 37signals HQ message board or as a comment on an existing policy document stored in <LOCATION>. This means everyone sees the same thing, everyone hears the same thing, and everyone knows the same thing - including future employees who are yet to join. We now have a shared truth. Day-to-day project work: In context Effective communication requires context. Saying the right thing in the wrong place, or without proper detail, leads to double work and messages being missed. That's why we spin up a separate <LOCATION> project for every project we work on. Everything related to that project is communicated inside that project. All the tasks, all the discussions, all the documents, all the debates, and all the decisions happen inside those walls. Everyone who needs access, has access. Every Basecamp project is a capsule of everything someone needs to know about that work project. Further, we take spatial context seriously. If we're discussing a specific task, we discuss it in the comment section below the task itself. If we're talking about a specific document, we discuss it in the comments attached to the document. Communications stay attached to the thing we're discussing. This provides the full story in one reliable place. The alternative is terrible - communication detached from the original source material, discussions all over the place, fragmented conversations missing entire chunks of time and detail, etc. Basecamp's "everything is commentable" feature is what makes this possible for us.
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Basecamp: The 37signals Guide to Making Decisions We'd like to use cookies to help understand if our ads are working or not. No Yes, that's fine A company is essentially two things: a group of people and a collection of decisions. How those people make these decisions is the art of running a business. This guide shows how we do it. Rules of thumb, and general philosophy Below you'll find a collection of general principles we try to keep in mind at 37signals when making decisions. They aren't requirements, and this isn't a comprehensive checklist we go through whenever we're faced with a choice, but they serve as frames, considerations, and shared practices to draw upon when we do the one thing that we need to do <DATE_TIME>, every day: decide. Why are we deciding anything at all? Does a decision actually need to be made here? Is the right person making this decision? Not the right role, but the right person with the right information, context, and insight? Who's merely chiming in? If we remove the immediate impact, how do we think we'll feel about this decision <DATE_TIME>? Why hasn't this decision been made already? Why didn't we decide before? What's taking so long to make this decision? Why are we hesitating? What does that reveal? Why would someone else make a different decision? What's the other side - or two or three - look like? Can we make this decision smaller? Can we take one big decision and turn it into three smaller ones? How easily can we reverse the decision? What was our first instinct on this decision? Are we now just walking around in circles trying to justify that gut reaction with data? What would happen if we just didn't make the decision? What happened the last time we made a decision like this? What are we looking forward to after the decision is made? What are we afraid of? How can we make this decision easier? What parts can we eliminate from consideration? Is there even a wrong decision? Do we anticipate making a different decision if we wait until <DATE_TIME> to make it? Is any decision better than no decision, or is no decision better than any decision? What other decisions will be impacted by this decision? Will this decision eliminate the need to make other decisions, or will it create the necessity to make even more decisions? What missing information would lead to making a different decision? Will this decision make more work for people that don't have extra time for that work? Or will it eliminate work? Could this decision be a good one for someone else to practice making? When do we have to decide? Will this be a one-and-done decision, or will this be a repeating decision? Is anyone outside the company depending on this, or is this a decision of our own making? How does this decision impact customers vs. impact us? Is this primarily a data-based decision, or an intuition, gut-based decision? Would another opinion help or hinder? If we were forced to make a decision right this second, what would it be? Where do we think we'd be <DATE_TIME> if we made this decision <DATE_TIME>? Is there anything in this decision we'd regret if we didn't take X, Y, or Z into consideration? Do you even care which way this goes? If not, why are you involved? When and how will we know whether the decision was the right one, or if it even mattered? When the consequences of our decision appear, are they likely to be visible with the naked eye or do they require a microscope to detect? If the latter, does it even matter? What principles are we bending if we make this decision? Are we asking multiple people to make a decision that one person should be making? Is the return on effort worth it? What gets easier if we make this decision? What gets harder? Will easier remain easier in the long term, or is it short-term easy but long-term hard? And vice versa. In the end, is this about money?
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Naval Podcast Apple Email <LOCATION> YouTube Aug 6 2025 We talked about in the past how "Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true." And <PERSON> made a song out of it. <PERSON> , God bless him. And I think that's absolutely true. More Aug 3 2025 We're hiring an editor for the Naval Podcast, and Naval is also hiring a personal chief of staff. If you're not interested in either of these, you can move on to the next episode. Let me give you some details on both of them. First, the editor for the Naval Podcast, which as you already know, is the most timeless and overproduced podcast in human history. More Jul 31 2025 Marketing is an open problem. People try to solve marketing in different ways. Some people will create videos, some people will write and/or tweet. Some people will literally stand outside with a sandwich board. Some people will go make a whole bunch of friends and just throw parties and spread by word of mouth. More Jul 29 2025 I ultimately think that everyone should be figuring out what it is that they uniquely do best-that aligns with who they are fundamentally, and that gives them authenticity, that brings them specific knowledge, that gives them competitive advantage, that makes them irreplaceable. And they should just lean into that. And sometimes you don't know what that is until you do it. More Jul 26 <DATE_TIME> From <DATE_TIME> : "When you truly work for yourself, you won't have hobbies, you won't have weekends, and you won't have vacations, but you won't have work either." This is the paradox of working for yourself, which every entrepreneur or every self-employed person is familiar with, which is that when you start working for yourself, you basically sacrifice this work-life balance thing. More Jul 25 2025 Like in most interesting, difficult things in life, the solution is indirect. That was part of the How to Get Rich tweetstorm , which is, if you want to get rich, you don't directly just go for the money. I suppose you could like a bankster, but if you're building something of value and you're using leverage and you're taking accountability and you're applying your specific knowledge, you're going to make money as a byproduct. More Jul 21 2025 I recently started another company. It's a very difficult project. In fact, the name of the company is The Impossible Company. It's called Impossible, Inc. What's interesting is that it's driven me into a frenzy of learning. And not necessarily even motivated in a negative way, but I'm more inspired to learn than I have been in a long time. More Jul 17 2025 Life is lived in the arena. You only learn by doing. And if you're not doing, then all the learning you're picking up is too general and too abstract. Then it truly is <PERSON> aphorisms. You don't know what applies where and when. And a lot of this kind of general principles and advice is not mathematics. More Jul 15 2025 Welcome back to the Naval Podcast where we post intermittently since <DATE_TIME>, I believe. We are going to talk about some How to Get Rich content. I've pulled out some tweets from Naval's Twitter from <DATE_TIME>. I got a little help from <PERSON> as well and we're just going to go through them. More <DATE_TIME> <PERSON> and I interview <PERSON> , physicist and author of The Beginning of Infinity . Also see The Deutsch Files I , II , and III . I can only start with what understanding I want. And I know I've asked you this before, but I want to be pedantically exhaustive about connecting the four theories of The Fabric of Reality . More Read More Modal body text goes here. <PERSON>... Write a Comment... Email Name Website
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User-agent: * Disallow: /cgi-bin/ Disallow: /RT/ Disallow: /TG/ Disallow: /QS/ Disallow: /wgl/ Disallow: /P/ Disallow: /ymix/ Disallow: /OS/ Disallow: /cs/ Disallow: /en= Disallow: /io= Disallow: /*/cgi-bin/ User-agent: Roverbot Disallow: / Sitemap: /sitemap.xml
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<PERSON> New: Good Writing | Founder <PERSON> to start a startup? Get funded by Y Combinator . © mmxxv pg
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Arc Arc is a new dialect of Lisp we're working on. You can find an early release and ask questions at <URL> . The Arc community is very newbie-friendly, because all the users are newbies to some extent. To get an idea of where we eventually hope to take <PERSON>, see Being Popular and The Hundred-Year Language . Forum Tutorial Get Arc Arc's Out Take the Arc Challenge First Priority: Core Language Arc FAQ Help Us Design Philosophy Why Arc Isn't Especially Object-Oriented LFM and LFSP Ideas People Have Sent Us Old Arc Stuff
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<LOCATION> <DATE_TIME> <LOCATION> is a spec for a new dialect of Lisp, written in itself. This should sound familiar to people who know about Lisp's origins, because it's the way Lisp began . It consists of two text files meant to be read in parallel: a guide to the Bel language , and the <PERSON> source . For those who just want to see some code examples, there's a file of those . But of course the <PERSON> source is also a code example, since it's written in itself. Considering the rate at which I was discovering bugs before publishing <PERSON>, there are bound to be more remaining. So this first version is version C, after Cunningham's Law.
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Lisp The Roots of Lisp What Made Lisp Different A Lisp Startup Arc: A New Lisp Lisp Code Lisp Links Lisp History Lisp Quotes Lisp FAQ
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Spam A Plan for Spam Plan for Spam FAQ Better Bayesian Filtering So Far, So Good Filters that Fight Back Will Filters Kill Spam? Stopping Spam Spam is Different Filters vs. Blacklists The Destiny of Blacklists Getting Past Filters Spam Conference Filtering Research Spam Resources Spam Archives Spam Links
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Responses "The amount of energy necessary to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it." <PERSON> Founders' Accents What I Didn't Say Female Founders "I can be tricked by anyone who looks like <PERSON>."
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FAQs General FAQ Programming FAQ Startup FAQ Arc FAQ Lisp FAQ Viaweb FAQ Plan for Spam FAQ FFB FAQ
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RAQs These are questions that I've only been asked once or twice, but which seem especially interesting. Why don't more painters have hacking jobs? Probably for the same reason that few hackers take up painting. They both seem from the outside like great abstruse mysteries. You can learn great abstruse mysteries as a teenager, because everything is a mystery at that point anyway. And you have the boundless self confidence that comes from ignorance. But unless you learn both as a teenager, which is rare, you'll be afraid of the other later. What should I read to learn more about history? The way to do it is piecemeal. You could just sit down and try reading <PERSON>'s History of the World cover to cover, but you'd probably lose interest. I think it's a better plan to read books about specific topics, even if you don't understand everything the first time through. Here are the most exciting ones I can think of: <PERSON>, Civilisation White, Medieval Technology and Social Change McEvedy, Penguin Atlases of Ancient and Medieval History Laslett, The World We <PERSON>, The Extension of Man Franklin, Autobiography Girouard, Life in the English Country House Pirenne, <PERSON> and <PERSON>, The Fall of Constantinople Cipolla, Guns, <PERSON> and Empires Hadas, A History of Rome <LOCATION>, The Art of War in the Middle Ages Vasari, Lives of the Artists Bovill, The Golden Trade of the Moors Caesar, Gallic Wars Kuhn, The Copernican Revolution Couldn't you add something equivalent to Lisp macros to languages like Perl or Python? Not without turning them into dialects of Lisp. Real macros need to operate on the parse tree of the program. To allow that in a language with syntax, you have to (a) make public the translation from source code to parse trees, and (b) give the programmer the opportunity to run programs on parse trees before they go on to the compiler. But it would be hard to do that without creating a notation for parse trees; and once you do, your language has become a skin on Lisp, in much the same way that in OS X , the Mac OS became a skin on Unix. How can I avoid turning into a pointy-haired boss? The pointy-haired boss is a manager who doesn't program. So the surest way to avoid becoming him is to stay a programmer. What tempts programmers to become managers are companies with old-fashioned corporate structure, where the only way to advance in salary and prestige is to go into management. So if you want to avoid becoming a PHB, avoid such companies, and work for (or start ) startups. I never had to manage anyone in our startup, even though I was the president. The other hackers were my peers, and would have given me the raspberry if I'd tried to "manage" them. We operated by consensus. And the rest of the company reported to our experienced COO, who was also more of a peer. Why be a manager when you could be a founder or early employee at a startup? I'm about to become a teacher. How can I be a good one? The best teachers I remember from school had three things in common: (1) They had high standards. Like <DATE_TIME> testing their parents, students will test teachers to see if they can get away with low-quality work or bad behavior. They won't respect the teachers who don't call them on it. (2) They liked us. Like dogs, kids can tell very accurately whether or not someone wishes them well. I think a lot of our teachers either never liked kids much, or got burned out and started not to like them. It's hard to be a good teacher once that happens. I can't think of one teacher in all the schools I went to who managed to be good despite disliking students. (3) They were interested in the subject. Most of the public school teachers I had weren't really interested in what they taught. Enthusiasm is contagious, and so is boredom. Two startups want to hire me. Which should I choose? The one with the most determined and smartest founders (in that order) is the more likely to succeed. Pretend you're an investor-which you are, of your time-and ask yourself which of the two you'd buy stock in. How can I become really good at Lisp programming? Write an application big enough that you can make the lower levels into a language layer. Embedded languages (or as they now seem to be called, DSLs) are the essence of Lisp hacking. What philosophy books would you recommend? I can't think of any I'd recommend. What I learned from trying to study philosophy is that the place to look is in other fields. If you understand math or history or aeronautical engineering very well, the most abstract of the things you know are what philosophy is supposed to be teaching. Books on philosophy per se are either highly technical stuff that doesn't matter much, or vague concatenations of abstractions their own authors didn't fully understand (e.g. <PERSON>). It can be interesting to study ancient philosophy, but more as a kind of accident report than to teach you anything useful. I want to start a startup, but I don't know how to program. How long will it take to learn? I would guess a smart person can learn to hack sufficiently well in <DATE_TIME>. The best way to do it would be to find some startup to hire you in an initially menial capacity, and start learning to program on the side. Then gradually work your way up from answering phones through system administration to actual software design. There is always so much to do in a startup that people won't be too picky about your paper qualifications, if you can solve problems for them without screwing up.
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<PERSON> is a programmer, writer, and investor. In <DATE_TIME>, he and <PERSON> started <PERSON>, the first software as a service company. <PERSON> was acquired by Yahoo in <DATE_TIME>, where it became Yahoo Store. In <DATE_TIME> he started publishing essays on <URL> , which now gets around 25 million page views per year. In <DATE_TIME> he and <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> started Y Combinator , the first of a new type of startup incubator. Since <DATE_TIME> Y Combinator has funded over 3000 startups, including Airbnb, Dropbox, Stripe, and <LOCATION>. In <DATE_TIME> he published a new Lisp dialect written in itself called <PERSON> . <PERSON> is the author of On Lisp (Prentice Hall, <DATE_TIME>), ANSI Common Lisp (Prentice Hall, <DATE_TIME>), and Hackers & Painters (<PERSON>, <DATE_TIME>). He has an AB from Cornell and a PhD in Computer Science from Harvard, and studied painting at RISD and the Accademia di Belle Arti in <LOCATION>. Photo by <PERSON>, released under the Attribution Creative Commons license. Click for full-size version.
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Having Kids <DATE_TIME> Before I had kids, I was afraid of having kids. Up to that point I felt about kids the way the young <PERSON> felt about living virtuously. I'd have been sad to think I'd never have children. But did I want them now? No. If I had kids, I'd become a parent, and parents, as I'd known since I was a kid, were uncool. They were dull and responsible and had no fun. And while it's not surprising that kids would believe that, to be honest I hadn't seen much as an adult to change my mind. Whenever I'd noticed parents with kids, the kids seemed to be terrors, and the parents pathetic harried creatures, even when they prevailed. When people had babies, I congratulated them enthusiastically, because that seemed to be what one did. But I didn't feel it at all. "Better you than me," I was thinking. Now when people have babies I congratulate them enthusiastically and I mean it. Especially the first one. I feel like they just got the best gift in the world. What changed, of course, is that I had kids. Something I dreaded turned out to be wonderful. Partly, and I won't deny it, this is because of serious chemical changes that happened almost instantly when our first child was born. It was like someone flipped a switch. I suddenly felt protective not just toward our child, but toward all children. As I was driving my wife and new son home from the hospital, I approached a crosswalk full of pedestrians, and I found myself thinking "I have to be really careful of all these people. Every one of them is someone's child!" So to some extent you can't trust me when I say having kids is great. To some extent I'm like a religious cultist telling you that you'll be happy if you join the cult too but only because joining the cult will alter your mind in a way that will make you happy to be a cult member. But not entirely. There were some things about having kids that I clearly got wrong before I had them. For example, there was a huge amount of selection bias in my observations of parents and children. Some parents may have noticed that I wrote "Whenever I'd noticed parents with kids." Of course the times I noticed kids were when things were going wrong. I only noticed them when they made noise. And where was I when I noticed them? Ordinarily I never went to places with kids, so the only times I encountered them were in shared bottlenecks like airplanes. Which is not exactly a representative sample. Flying with a toddler is something very few parents enjoy. What I didn't notice, because they tend to be much quieter, were all the great moments parents had with kids. People don't talk about these much the magic is hard to put into words, and all other parents know about them anyway but one of the great things about having kids is that there are so many times when you feel there is nowhere else you'd rather be, and nothing else you'd rather be doing. You don't have to be doing anything special. You could just be going somewhere together, or putting them to bed, or pushing them on the swings at the park. But you wouldn't trade these moments for anything. One doesn't tend to associate kids with peace, but that's what you feel. You don't need to look any further than where you are right now. Before I had kids, I had moments of this kind of peace, but they were rarer. With kids it can happen several times a day. My other source of data about kids was my own childhood, and that was similarly misleading. I was pretty bad, and was always in trouble for something or other. So it seemed to me that parenthood was essentially law enforcement. I didn't realize there were good times too. I remember my mother telling me once when I was about 30 that she'd really enjoyed having me and my sister. My god, I thought, this woman is a saint. She not only endured all the pain we subjected her to, but actually enjoyed it? Now I realize she was simply telling the truth. She said that one reason she liked having us was that we'd been interesting to talk to. That took me by surprise when I had kids. You don't just love them. They become your friends too. They're really interesting. And while I admit small children are disastrously fond of repetition (anything worth doing once is worth doing fifty times) it's often genuinely fun to play with them. That surprised me too. Playing with a <DATE_TIME> was fun when I was 2 and definitely not fun when I was <DATE_TIME>. Why would it become fun again later? But it does. There are of course times that are pure drudgery. Or worse still, terror. Having kids is one of those intense types of experience that are hard to imagine unless you've had them. But it is not, as I implicitly believed before having kids, simply your DNA heading for the lifeboats. Some of my worries about having kids were right, though. They definitely make you less productive. I know having kids makes some people get their act together, but if your act was already together, you're going to have less time to do it in. In particular, you're going to have to work to a schedule. Kids have schedules. I'm not sure if it's because that's how kids are, or because it's the only way to integrate their lives with adults', but once you have kids, you tend to have to work on their schedule. You will have chunks of time to work. But you can't let work spill promiscuously through your whole life, like I used to before I had kids. You're going to have to work at the same time every day, whether inspiration is flowing or not, and there are going to be times when you have to stop, even if it is. I've been able to adapt to working this way. Work, like love, finds a way. If there are only certain times it can happen, it happens at those times. So while I don't get as much done as before I had kids, I get enough done. I hate to say this, because being ambitious has always been a part of my identity, but having kids may make one less ambitious. It hurts to see that sentence written down. I squirm to avoid it. But if there weren't something real there, why would I squirm? The fact is, once you have kids, you're probably going to care more about them than you do about yourself. And attention is a zero-sum game. Only one idea at a time can be the top idea in your mind . Once you have kids, it will often be your kids, and that means it will less often be some project you're working on. I have some hacks for sailing close to this wind. For example, when I write essays, I think about what I'd want my kids to know. That drives me to get things right. And when I was writing <PERSON> , I told my kids that once I finished it I'd take them to <LOCATION>. When you say that sort of thing to a little kid, they treat it as a promise. Which meant I had to finish or I'd be taking away their trip to <LOCATION>. Maybe if I'm really lucky such tricks could put me net ahead. But the wind is there, no question. On the other hand, what kind of wimpy ambition do you have if it won't survive having kids? Do you have so little to spare? And while having kids may be warping my present judgement, it hasn't overwritten my memory. I remember perfectly well what life was like before. Well enough to miss some things a lot, like the ability to take off for some other country at a moment's notice. That was so great. Why did I never do that? See what I did there? The fact is, most of the freedom I had before kids, I never used. I paid for it in loneliness, but I never used it. I had plenty of happy times before I had kids. But if I count up happy moments, not just potential happiness but actual happy moments, there are more after kids than before. Now I practically have it on tap, almost any bedtime. People's experiences as parents vary a lot, and I know I've been lucky. But I think the worries I had before having kids must be pretty common, and judging by other parents' faces when they see their kids, so must the happiness that kids bring. Note [1] Adults are sophisticated enough to see <DATE_TIME> for the fascinatingly complex characters they are, whereas to most <DATE_TIME> are just defective <DATE_TIME>. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation Slovak Translation
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How to <PERSON> and Money <DATE_TIME> When we sold our startup in <DATE_TIME> I suddenly got a lot of money. I now had to think about something I hadn't had to think about before: how not to lose it. I knew it was possible to go from rich to poor, just as it was possible to go from poor to rich. But while I'd spent a lot of <DATE_TIME> studying the paths from poor to rich , I knew practically nothing about the paths from rich to poor. Now, in order to avoid them, I had to learn where they were. So I started to pay attention to how fortunes are lost. If you'd asked me as a kid how rich people became poor, I'd have said by spending all their money. That's how it happens in books and movies, because that's the colorful way to do it. But in fact the way most fortunes are lost is not through excessive expenditure, but through bad investments. It's hard to spend a fortune without noticing. Someone with ordinary tastes would find it hard to blow through more than a few tens of thousands of dollars without thinking "wow, I'm spending a lot of money." Whereas if you start trading derivatives, you can lose a million dollars (as much as you want, really) in the blink of an eye. In most people's minds, spending money on luxuries sets off alarms that making investments doesn't. Luxuries seem self-indulgent. And unless you got the money by inheriting it or winning a lottery, you've already been thoroughly trained that self-indulgence leads to trouble. Investing bypasses those alarms. You're not spending the money; you're just moving it from one asset to another. Which is why people trying to sell you expensive things say "it's an investment." The solution is to develop new alarms. This can be a tricky business, because while the alarms that prevent you from overspending are so basic that they may even be in our DNA, the ones that prevent you from making bad investments have to be learned, and are sometimes fairly counterintuitive. <DATE_TIME> I realized something surprising: the situation with time is much the same as with money. The most dangerous way to lose time is not to spend it having fun, but to spend it doing fake work. When you spend time having fun, you know you're being self-indulgent. Alarms start to go off fairly quickly. If I woke up <DATE_TIME> and sat down on the sofa and watched TV all day, I'd feel like something was terribly wrong. Just thinking about it makes me wince. I'd start to feel uncomfortable after sitting on a sofa watching TV for <DATE_TIME>, let alone a whole day. And yet I've definitely had days when I might as well have sat in front of a TV all <DATE_TIME> at the end of which, if I asked myself what I got done <DATE_TIME>, the answer would have been: basically, nothing. I feel bad after <DATE_TIME> too, but nothing like as bad as I'd feel if I spent the whole day on the sofa watching TV. If I spent a whole day watching TV I'd feel like I was descending into perdition. But the same alarms don't go off on <DATE_TIME> when I get nothing done, because I'm doing stuff that seems, superficially, like real work. Dealing with email, for example. You do it sitting at a desk. It's not fun. So it must be work. With time, as with money, avoiding pleasure is no longer enough to protect you. It probably was enough to protect hunter-gatherers, and perhaps all pre-industrial societies. So nature and nurture combine to make us avoid self-indulgence. But the world has gotten more complicated: the most dangerous traps now are new behaviors that bypass our alarms about self-indulgence by mimicking more virtuous types. And the worst thing is, they're not even fun. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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The Shape of the Essay Field <DATE_TIME> An essay has to tell people something they don't already know. But there are three different reasons people might not know something, and they yield three very different kinds of essays. One reason people won't know something is if it's not important to know. That doesn't mean it will make a bad essay. For example, you might write a good essay about a particular model of car. Readers would learn something from it. It would add to their picture of the world. For a handful of readers it might even spur some kind of epiphany. But unless this is a very unusual car it's not critical for everyone to know about it. [ 1 ] If something isn't important to know, there's no answer to the question of why people don't know it. Not knowing random facts is the default. But if you're going to write about things that are important to know, you have to ask why your readers don't already know them. Is it because they're smart but inexperienced, or because they're obtuse? So the three reasons readers might not already know what you tell them are (a) that it's not important, (b) that they're obtuse, or (c) that they're inexperienced. The reason I did this breakdown was to get at the following fact, which might have seemed controversial if I'd led with it, but should be obvious now. If you're writing for smart people about important things, you're writing for the young. Or more precisely, that's where you'll have the most effect. Whatever you say should also be at least somewhat novel to you, however old you are. It's not an essay otherwise, because an essay is something you write to figure something out. But whatever you figure out will presumably be more of a surprise to younger readers than it is to you. There's a continuum of surprise. At one extreme, something you read can change your whole way of thinking. The Selfish Gene did this to me. It was like suddenly seeing the other interpretation of an ambiguous image: you can treat genes rather than organisms as the protagonists, and evolution becomes easier to understand when you do. At the other extreme, writing merely puts into words something readers were already thinking - or thought they were. The impact of an essay is how much it changes readers' thinking multiplied by the importance of the topic. But it's hard to do well at both. It's hard to have big new ideas about important topics. So in practice there's a tradeoff: you can change readers' thinking a lot about moderately important things, or change it a little about very important ones. But with younger readers the tradeoff shifts. There's more room to change their thinking, so there's a bigger payoff for writing about important things. The tradeoff isn't a conscious one, at least not for me. It's more like a kind of gravitational field that writers work in. But every essayist works in it, whether they realize it or not. This seems obvious once you state it, but it took me a long time to understand. I knew I wanted to write for smart people about important topics. I noticed empirically that I seemed to be writing for the young. But it took me <DATE_TIME> to understand that the latter was an automatic consequence of the former. In fact I only really figured it out as I was writing this essay. Now that I know it, should I change anything? I don't think so. In fact seeing the shape of the field that writers work in has reminded me that I'm not optimizing for returns in it. I'm not trying to surprise readers of any particular age; I'm trying to surprise myself. The way I usually decide what to write about is by following curiosity. I notice something new and dig into it. It would probably be a mistake to change that. But seeing the shape of the essay field has set me thinking. What would surprise young readers? Which important things do people tend to learn late? Interesting question. I should think about that. Note [ 1 ] It's hard to write a really good essay about an unimportant topic, though, because a really good essayist will inevitably draw the topic into deeper waters. <PERSON> could write an essay about how to boil potatoes that ended up being full of timeless wisdom. In which case, of course, it wouldn't really be about how to boil potatoes; that would just have been the starting point. Thanks to <PERSON> and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Good Writing <DATE_TIME> There are two senses in which writing can be good: it can sound good, and the ideas can be right. It can have nice, flowing sentences, and it can draw correct conclusions about important things. It might seem as if these two kinds of good would be unrelated, like the speed of a car and the color it's painted. And yet I don't think they are. I think writing that sounds good is more likely to be right. So here we have the most exciting kind of idea: one that seems both preposterous and true. Let's examine it. How can this possibly be true? I know it's true from writing. You can't simultaneously optimize two unrelated things; when you push one far enough, you always end up sacrificing the other. And yet no matter how hard I push, I never find myself having to choose between the sentence that sounds best and the one that expresses an idea best. If I did, it would be frivolous to care how sentences sound. But in practice it feels the opposite of frivolous. Fixing sentences that sound bad seems to help get the ideas right. [ 1 ] By right I mean more than just true. Getting the ideas right means developing them well - drawing the conclusions that matter most, and exploring each one to the right level of detail. So getting the ideas right is not just a matter of saying true things, but saying the right true things. How could trying to make sentences sound good help you do that? The clue to the answer is something I noticed <DATE_TIME> when I was doing the layout for my first book. Sometimes when you're laying out text you have bad luck. For example, you get a section that runs one line longer than the page. I don't know what ordinary typesetters do in this situation, but what I did was rewrite the section to make it a line shorter. You'd expect such an arbitrary constraint to make the writing worse. But I found, to my surprise, that it never did. I always ended up with something I liked better. I don't think this was because my writing was especially careless. I think if you pointed to a random paragraph in anything written by anyone and told them to make it slightly shorter (or longer), they'd probably be able to come up with something better. The best analogy for this phenomenon is when you shake a bin full of different objects. The shakes are arbitrary motions. Or more precisely, they're not calculated to make any two specific objects fit more closely together. And yet repeated shaking inevitably makes the objects discover brilliantly clever ways of packing themselves. Gravity won't let them become less tightly packed, so any change has to be a change for the better. [ 2 ] So it is with writing. If you have to rewrite an awkward passage, you'll never do it in a way that makes it less true. You couldn't bear it, any more than gravity could bear things floating upward. So any change in the ideas has to be a change for the better. It's obvious once you think about it. Writing that sounds good is more likely to be right for the same reason that a well-shaken bin is more likely to be tightly packed. But there's something else going on as well. Sounding good isn't just a random external force that leaves the ideas in an essay better off. It actually helps you to get them right. The reason is that it makes the essay easier to read. It's less work to read writing that flows well. How does that help the writer? Because the writer is the first reader. When I'm working on an essay, I spend far more time reading than writing. I'll reread some parts 50 or 100 times, replaying the thoughts in them and asking myself, like someone sanding a piece of wood, does anything catch? Does anything feel wrong? And the easier the essay is to read, the easier it is to notice if something catches. So yes, the two senses of good writing are connected in at least two ways. Trying to make writing sound good makes you fix mistakes unconsciously, and also helps you fix them consciously; it shakes the bin of ideas, and also makes mistakes easier to see. But now that we've dissolved one layer of preposterousness, I can't resist adding another. Does sounding good do more than just help you get the ideas right? Is writing that sounds good inherently more likely to be right? Crazy as it may seem, I think that's true too. Obviously there's a connection at the level of individual words. There are lots of words in English that sound like what they mean, often in wonderfully subtle ways. Glitter. Round. Scrape. Prim. Cavalcade. But the sound of good writing depends even more on the way you put words together, and there's a connection at that level too. When writing sounds good, it's mostly because it has good rhythm. But the rhythm of good writing is not the rhythm of music, or the meter of verse. It's not so regular. If it were, it wouldn't be good, because the rhythm of good writing has to match the ideas in it, and ideas have all kinds of different shapes. Sometimes they're simple and you just state them. But other times they're more subtle, and you need longer, more complicated sentences to tease out all the implications. An essay is a cleaned up train of thought, in the same way dialogue is cleaned up conversation, and a train of thought has a natural rhythm. So when an essay sounds good, it's not merely because it has a pleasing rhythm, but because it has its natural one. Which means you can use getting the rhythm right as a heuristic for getting the ideas right. And not just in principle: good writers do both simultaneously as a matter of course. Often I don't even distinguish between the two problems. I just think Ugh, this doesn't sound right; what do I mean to say here? [ 3 ] The sound of writing turns out to be more like the shape of a plane than the color of a car. If it looks good, as <PERSON> used to say, it will fly well. This is only true of writing that's used to develop ideas, though. It doesn't apply when you have ideas in some other way and then write about them afterward - for example, if you build something, or conduct an experiment, and then write a paper about it. In such cases the ideas often live more in the work than the writing, so the writing can be bad even though the ideas are good. The writing in textbooks and popular surveys can be bad for the same reason: the author isn't developing the ideas, merely describing other people's. It's only when you're writing to develop ideas that there's such a close connection between the two senses of doing it well. Ok, many people will be thinking, this seems plausible so far, but what about liars? Is it not notoriously possible for a smooth-tongued liar to write something beautiful that's completely false? It is, of course. But not without method acting. The way to write something beautiful and false is to begin by making yourself almost believe it. So just like someone writing something beautiful and true, you're presenting a perfectly-formed train of thought. The difference is the point where it attaches to the world. You're saying something that would be true if certain false premises were. If for some bizarre reason the number of jobs in a country were fixed, then immigrants really would be taking our jobs. So it's not quite right to say that better sounding writing is more likely to be true. Better sounding writing is more likely to be internally consistent. If the writer is honest, internal consistency and truth converge. But while we can't safely conclude that beautiful writing is true, it's usually safe to conclude the converse: something that seems clumsily written will usually have gotten the ideas wrong too. Indeed, the two senses of good writing are more like two ends of the same thing. The connection between them is not a rigid one; the goodness of good writing is not a rod but a rope, with multiple overlapping connections running through it. But it's hard to move one end without moving the other. It's hard to be right without sounding right. Notes [ 1 ] The closest thing to an exception is when you have to go back and insert a new point into the middle of something you've written. This often messes up the flow, sometimes in ways you can never quite repair. But I think the ultimate source of this problem is that ideas are tree-shaped and essays are linear. You inevitably run into difficulties when you try to cram the former into the latter. Frankly it's surprising how much you can get away with. But even so you sometimes have to resort to an endnote. [ 2 ] Obviously if you shake the bin hard enough the objects in it can become less tightly packed. And similarly, if you imposed some huge external constraint on your writing, like using alternating one and two syllable words, the ideas would start to suffer. [ 3 ] Bizarrely enough, this happened in the writing of this very paragraph. An earlier version shared several phrases in common with the preceding paragraph, and the repetition bugged me each time I reread it. When I got annoyed enough to fix it, I discovered that the repetition reflected a problem in the underlying ideas, and I fixed both simultaneously. Thanks to <PERSON> and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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What to Do <DATE_TIME> What should one do? That may seem a strange question, but it's not meaningless or unanswerable. It's the sort of question kids ask before they learn not to ask big questions. I only came across it myself in the process of investigating something else. But once I did, I thought I should at least try to answer it. So what should one do? One should help people, and take care of the world. Those two are obvious. But is there anything else? When I ask that, the answer that pops up is Make good new things . I can't prove that one should do this, any more than I can prove that one should help people or take care of the world. We're talking about first principles here. But I can explain why this principle makes sense. The most impressive thing humans can do is to think. It may be the most impressive thing that can be done. And the best kind of thinking, or more precisely the best proof that one has thought well, is to make good new things. I mean new things in a very general sense. Newton's physics was a good new thing. Indeed, the first version of this principle was to have good new ideas. But that didn't seem general enough: it didn't include making art or music, for example, except insofar as they embody new ideas. And while they may embody new ideas, that's not all they embody, unless you stretch the word "idea" so uselessly thin that it includes everything that goes through your nervous system. Even for ideas that one has consciously, though, I prefer the phrasing "make good new things." There are other ways to describe the best kind of thinking. To make discoveries, for example, or to understand something more deeply than others have. But how well do you understand something if you can't make a model of it, or write about it? Indeed, trying to express what you understand is not just a way to prove that you understand it, but a way to understand it better. Another reason I like this phrasing is that it biases us toward creation. It causes us to prefer the kind of ideas that are naturally seen as making things rather than, say, making critical observations about things other people have made. Those are ideas too, and sometimes valuable ones, but it's easy to trick oneself into believing they're more valuable than they are. Criticism seems sophisticated, and making new things often seems awkward, especially at first; and yet it's precisely those first steps that are most rare and valuable. Is newness essential? I think so. Obviously it's essential in science. If you copied a paper of someone else's and published it as your own, it would seem not merely unimpressive but dishonest. And it's similar in the arts. A copy of a good painting can be a pleasing thing, but it's not impressive in the way the original was. Which in turn implies it's not impressive to make the same thing over and over, however well; you're just copying yourself. Note though that we're talking about a different kind of should with this principle. Taking care of people and the world are shoulds in the sense that they're one's duty, but making good new things is a should in the sense that this is how to live to one's full potential. Historically most rules about how to live have been a mix of both kinds of should, though usually with more of the former than the latter. [ 1 ] For most of history the question "What should one do?" got much the same answer everywhere, whether you asked Cicero or <PERSON>. You should be wise, brave, honest, temperate, and just, uphold tradition, and serve the public interest. There was a long stretch where in some parts of the world the answer became "Serve God," but in practice it was still considered good to be wise, brave, honest, temperate, and just, uphold tradition, and serve the public interest. And indeed this recipe would have seemed right to most <NRP>. But there's nothing in it about taking care of the world or making new things, and that's a bit worrying, because it seems like this question should be a timeless one. The answer shouldn't change much. I'm not too worried that the traditional answers don't mention taking care of the world. Obviously people only started to care about that once it became clear we could ruin it. But how can making good new things be important if the traditional answers don't mention it? The traditional answers were answers to a slightly different question. They were answers to the question of how to be, rather than what to do. The audience didn't have a lot of choice about what to do. The audience up till <DATE_TIME> was the landowning class, which was also the political class. They weren't choosing between doing physics and writing novels. Their work was foreordained: manage their estates, participate in politics, fight when necessary. It was ok to do certain other kinds of work in one's spare time, but ideally one didn't have any. Cicero's De Officiis is one of the great classical answers to the question of how to live, and in it he explicitly says that he wouldn't even be writing it if he hadn't been excluded from public life by recent political upheavals. [ 2 ] There were of course people doing what we would now call "original work," and they were often admired for it, but they weren't seen as models. Archimedes knew that he was the first to prove that a sphere has 2/3 the volume of the smallest enclosing cylinder and was very pleased about it. But you don't find ancient writers urging their readers to emulate him. They regarded him more as a prodigy than a model. Now many more of us can follow <PERSON>'s example and devote most of our attention to one kind of work. He turned out to be a model after all, along with a collection of other people that his contemporaries would have found it strange to treat as a distinct group, because the vein of people making new things ran at right angles to the social hierarchy. What kinds of new things count? I'd rather leave that question to the makers of them. It would be a risky business to try to define any kind of threshold, because new kinds of work are often despised at first. <PERSON> was writing literal pulp fiction, and he's now recognized as one of the best writers of <DATE_TIME>. Indeed this pattern is so common that you can use it as a recipe: if you're excited about some kind of work that's not considered prestigious and you can explain what everyone else is overlooking about it, then this is not merely a kind of work that's ok to do, but one to seek out. The other reason I wouldn't want to define any thresholds is that we don't need them. The kind of people who make good new things don't need rules to keep them honest. So there's my guess at a set of principles to live by: take care of people and the world, and make good new things. Different people will do these to varying degrees. There will presumably be lots who focus entirely on taking care of people. There will be a few who focus mostly on making new things. But even if you're one of those, you should at least make sure that the new things you make don't net harm people or the world. And if you go a step further and try to make things that help them, you may find you're ahead on the trade. You'll be more constrained in what you can make, but you'll make it with more energy. On the other hand, if you make something amazing, you'll often be helping people or the world even if you didn't mean to. <PERSON> was driven by curiosity and ambition, not by any practical effect his work might have, and yet the practical effect of his work has been enormous. And this seems the rule rather than the exception. So if you think you can make something amazing, you should probably just go ahead and do it. Notes [ 1 ] We could treat all three as the same kind of should by saying that it's one's duty to live well - for example by saying, as some <NRP> have, that it's one's duty to make the most of one's God-given gifts. But this seems one of those casuistries people invented to evade the stern requirements of religion: it was permissible to spend time studying math instead of praying or performing acts of charity because otherwise you were rejecting a gift God had given you. A useful casuistry no doubt, but we don't need it. We could also combine the first two principles, since people are part of the world. Why should our species get special treatment? I won't try to justify this choice, but I'm skeptical that anyone who claims to think differently actually lives according to their principles. [ 2 ] Confucius was also excluded from public life after ending up on the losing end of a power struggle, and presumably he too would not be so famous now if it hadn't been for this long stretch of enforced leisure. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Writes and Write-Nots October 2024 I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in <DATE_TIME> there won't be many people who can write. One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing. The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard. And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require. These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate - the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing. Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like <PERSON>, or plagiarize, like <PERSON>, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how. Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work. The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write. Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem. Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than <PERSON> did: If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking. So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too. This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be. It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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When To Do What You Love <DATE_TIME> There's some debate about whether it's a good idea to "follow your passion." In fact the question is impossible to answer with a simple yes or no. Sometimes you should and sometimes you shouldn't, but the border between should and shouldn't is very complicated. The only way to give a general answer is to trace it. When people talk about this question, there's always an implicit "instead of." All other things being equal, why wouldn't you work on what interests you the most? So even raising the question implies that all other things aren't equal, and that you have to choose between working on what interests you the most and something else, like what pays the best. And indeed if your main goal is to make money, you can't usually afford to work on what interests you the most. People pay you for doing what they want, not what you want. But there's an obvious exception: when you both want the same thing. For example, if you love football, and you're good enough at it, you can get paid a lot to play it. Of course the odds are against you in a case like football, because so many other people like playing it too. This is not to say you shouldn't try though. It depends how much ability you have and how hard you're willing to work. The odds are better when you have strange tastes: when you like something that pays well and that few other people like. For example, it's clear that <PERSON> truly loved running a software company. He didn't just love programming, which a lot of people do. He loved writing software for customers. That is a very strange taste indeed, but if you have it, you can make a lot by indulging it. There are even some people who have a genuine intellectual interest in making money. This is distinct from mere greed. They just can't help noticing when something is mispriced, and can't help doing something about it. It's like a puzzle for them. [ 1 ] In fact there's an edge case here so spectacular that it turns all the preceding advice on its head. If you want to make a really huge amount of money - hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars - it turns out to be very useful to work on what interests you the most. The reason is not the extra motivation you get from doing this, but that the way to make a really large amount of money is to start a startup, and working on what interests you is an excellent way to discover startup ideas . Many if not most of the biggest startups began as projects the founders were doing for fun. Apple, Google, and Facebook all began that way. Why is this pattern so common? Because the best ideas tend to be such outliers that you'd overlook them if you were consciously looking for ways to make money. Whereas if you're young and good at technology, your unconscious instincts about what would be interesting to work on are very well aligned with what needs to be built. So there's something like a midwit peak for making money. If you don't need to make much, you can work on whatever you're most interested in; if you want to become moderately rich, you can't usually afford to; but if you want to become super rich, and you're young and good at technology, working on what you're most interested in becomes a good idea again. What if you're not sure what you want? What if you're attracted to the idea of making money and more attracted to some kinds of work than others, but neither attraction predominates? How do you break ties? The key here is to understand that such ties are only apparent. When you have trouble choosing between following your interests and making money, it's never because you have complete knowledge of yourself and of the types of work you're choosing between, and the options are perfectly balanced. When you can't decide which path to take, it's almost always due to ignorance. In fact you're usually suffering from three kinds of ignorance simultaneously: you don't know what makes you happy, what the various kinds of work are really like, or how well you could do them. [ 2 ] In a way this ignorance is excusable. It's often hard to predict these things, and no one even tells you that you need to. If you're ambitious you're told you should go to college, and this is good advice so far as it goes, but that's where it usually ends. No one tells you how to figure out what to work on, or how hard this can be. What do you do in the face of uncertainty? Get more certainty. And probably the best way to do that is to try working on things you're interested in. That will get you more information about how interested you are in them, how good you are at them, and how much scope they offer for ambition. Don't wait. Don't wait till the end of college to figure out what to work on. Don't even wait for internships during college. You don't necessarily need a job doing x in order to work on x; often you can just start doing it in some form yourself. And since figuring out what to work on is a problem that could take <DATE_TIME> to solve, the sooner you start, the better. One useful trick for judging different kinds of work is to look at who your colleagues will be. You'll become like whoever you work with. Do you want to become like these people? Indeed, the difference in character between different kinds of work is magnified by the fact that everyone else is facing the same decisions as you. If you choose a kind of work mainly for how well it pays, you'll be surrounded by other people who chose it for the same reason, and that will make it even more soul-sucking than it seems from the outside. Whereas if you choose work you're genuinely interested in, you'll be surrounded mostly by other people who are genuinely interested in it, and that will make it extra inspiring. [ 3 ] The other thing you do in the face of uncertainty is to make choices that are uncertainty-proof. The less sure you are about what to do, the more important it is to choose options that give you more options in the future. I call this "staying upwind." If you're unsure whether to major in math or economics, for example, choose math; math is upwind of economics in the sense that it will be easier to switch later from math to economics than from economics to math. There's one case, though, where it's easy to say whether you should work on what interests you the most: if you want to do great work . This is not a sufficient condition for doing great work, but it is a necessary one. There's a lot of selection bias in advice about whether to "follow your passion," and this is the reason. Most such advice comes from people who are famously successful, and if you ask someone who's famously successful how to do what they did, most will tell you that you have to work on what you're most interested in. And this is in fact true. That doesn't mean it's the right advice for everyone. Not everyone can do great work, or wants to. But if you do want to, the complicated question of whether or not to work on what interests you the most becomes simple. The answer is yes. The root of great work is a sort of ambitious curiosity, and you can't manufacture that. Notes [ 1 ] These examples show why it's a mistake to assume that economic inequality must be evidence of some kind of brokenness or unfairness. It's obvious that different people have different interests, and that some interests yield far more money than others, so how can it not be obvious that some people will end up much richer than others? In a world where some people like to write enterprise software and others like to make studio pottery, economic inequality is the natural outcome. [ 2 ] Difficulty choosing between interests is a different matter. That's not always due to ignorance. It's often intrinsically difficult. I still have trouble doing it. [ 3 ] You can't always take people at their word on this. Since it's more prestigious to work on things you're interested in than to be driven by money, people who are driven mainly by money will often claim to be more interested in their work than they actually are. One way to test such claims is by doing the following thought experiment: if their work didn't pay well, would they take <DATE_TIME> jobs doing something else in order to do it in their spare time? Lots of mathematicians and scientists and engineers would. Historically lots have . But I don't think as many investment bankers would. This thought experiment is also useful for distinguishing between university departments. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, Harj Taggar, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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The Reddits <DATE_TIME> I met the <NRP> before we even started Y Combinator. In fact they were one of the reasons we started it. YC grew out of a talk I gave to the Harvard Computer Society (the undergrad computer club) about how to start a startup. Everyone else in the audience was probably local, but <PERSON> and <PERSON> came up on the train from the University of Virginia, where they were seniors. Since they'd come so far I agreed to meet them for coffee. They told me about the startup idea we'd later fund them to drop: a way to order fast food on your cellphone. This was before smartphones. They'd have had to make deals with cell carriers and fast food chains just to get it launched. So it was not going to happen. It still doesn't exist, <DATE_TIME>. But I was impressed with their brains and their energy. In fact I was so impressed with them and some of the other people I met at that talk that I decided to start something to fund them. <DATE_TIME> I told <PERSON> and <PERSON> that we were starting Y Combinator, and encouraged them to apply. That first batch we didn't have any way to identify applicants, so we made up nicknames for them. The <NRP> were the "Cell food muffins." "Muffin" is a term of endearment <PERSON> uses for things like small dogs and <DATE_TIME>. So that gives you some idea what kind of impression <PERSON> and <PERSON> made in <DATE_TIME>. They had the look of slightly ruffled surprise that baby birds have. Their idea was bad though. And since we thought then that we were funding ideas rather than founders, we rejected them. But we felt bad about it. <PERSON> was sad that we'd rejected the muffins. And it seemed wrong to me to turn down the people we'd been inspired to start YC to fund. I don't think the startup sense of the word "pivot" had been invented yet, but we wanted to fund <PERSON> and <PERSON>, so if their idea was bad, they'd have to work on something else. And I knew what else. In <DATE_TIME> there was a site called Delicious where you could save links. It had a page called <URL> that listed the most-saved links, and people were using this page as a de facto Reddit. I knew because a lot of the traffic to my site was coming from it. There needed to be something like <URL> but designed for sharing links instead of being a byproduct of saving them. So I called <PERSON> and <PERSON> and said that we liked them, just not their idea, so we'd fund them if they'd work on something else. They were on the train home to <LOCATION> at that point. They got off at the next station and got on the next train north, and by <DATE_TIME> were committed to working on what's now called <LOCATION>. They would have liked to call it Snoo, as in "What snoo?" But <URL> was too expensive, so they settled for calling the mascot <PERSON> and picked a name for the site that wasn't registered. Early on <LOCATION> was just a provisional name, or so they told me at least, but it's probably too late to change it now. As with all the really great startups, there's an uncannily close match between the company and the founders. <PERSON> in particular. Reddit has a certain personality - curious, skeptical, ready to be amused - and that personality is <PERSON>'s. <PERSON> will roll his eyes at this, but he's an intellectual; he's interested in ideas for their own sake. That was how he came to be in that audience in <LOCATION> in the first place. He knew me because he was interested in a programming language I've written about called Lisp, and Lisp is one of those languages few people learn except out of intellectual curiosity. <PERSON>'s kind of vacuum-cleaner curiosity is exactly what you want when you're starting a site that's a list of links to literally anything interesting. <PERSON> was not a big fan of authority, so he also liked the idea of a site without editors. In <DATE_TIME> the top forum for programmers was a site called Slashdot. It was a lot like <LOCATION>, except the stories on the frontpage were chosen by human moderators. And though they did a good job, that one small difference turned out to be a big difference. Being driven by user submissions meant <LOCATION> was fresher than Slashdot. News there was newer, and users will always go where the newest news is. I pushed the Reddits to launch fast. A version one didn't need to be more than a couple hundred lines of code. How could that take <DATE_TIME> or two to build? And they did launch comparatively fast, <DATE_TIME> into the first YC batch. The first users were <PERSON>, <PERSON>, me, and some of their YC batchmates and college friends. It turns out you don't need that many users to collect a decent list of interesting links, especially if you have multiple accounts per user. Reddit got two more people from their YC batch: <PERSON> and <PERSON>, and they too were unusually smart. <PERSON> was just finishing his PhD in physics at Harvard. <PERSON> was younger, a college freshman, and even more anti-authority than <PERSON>. It's not exaggerating to describe him as a martyr for what authority later did to him. Slowly but inexorably Reddit's traffic grew. At first the numbers were so small they were hard to distinguish from background noise. But within <DATE_TIME> it was clear that there was a core of real users returning regularly to the site. And although all kinds of things have happened to <NRP> the company in <DATE_TIME> since, <LOCATION> the site never looked back. Reddit the site (and now app) is such a fundamentally useful thing that it's almost unkillable. Which is why, despite a long stretch after <PERSON> left when the management strategy ranged from benign neglect to spectacular blunders, traffic just kept growing. You can't do that with most companies. Most companies you take your eye off the ball for <DATE_TIME> and you're in deep trouble. But <LOCATION> was special, and when <PERSON> came back in <DATE_TIME>, I knew the world was in for a surprise. People thought they had Reddit's number: one of the players in <LOCATION>, but not one of the big ones. But those who knew what had been going on behind the scenes knew there was more to the story than this. If Reddit could grow to the size it had with management that was harmless at best, what could it do if <PERSON> came back? We now know the answer to that question. Or at least a lower bound on the answer. <PERSON> is not out of ideas yet.
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The Best Essay March 2024 Despite its title this isn't meant to be the best essay. My goal here is to figure out what the best essay would be like. It would be well-written, but you can write well about any topic. What made it special would be what it was about. Obviously some topics would be better than others. It probably wouldn't be about this <DATE_TIME>'s lipstick colors. But it wouldn't be vaporous talk about elevated themes either. A good essay has to be surprising. It has to tell people something they don't already know. The best essay would be on the most important topic you could tell people something surprising about. That may sound obvious, but it has some unexpected consequences. One is that science enters the picture like an elephant stepping into a rowboat. For example, <PERSON> first described the idea of natural selection in an essay written in <DATE_TIME>. Talk about an important topic you could tell people something surprising about. If that's the test of a great essay, this was surely the best one written in <DATE_TIME>. And indeed, the best possible essay at any given time would usually be one describing the most important scientific or technological discovery it was possible to make. [ 1 ] Another unexpected consequence: I imagined when I started writing this that the best essay would be fairly timeless - that the best essay you could write in <DATE_TIME> would be much the same as the best one you could write now. But in fact the opposite seems to be true. It might be true that the best painting would be timeless in this sense. But it wouldn't be impressive to write an essay introducing natural selection now. The best essay now would be one describing a great discovery we didn't yet know about. If the question of how to write the best possible essay reduces to the question of how to make great discoveries, then I started with the wrong question. Perhaps what this exercise shows is that we shouldn't waste our time writing essays but instead focus on making discoveries in some specific domain. But I'm interested in essays and what can be done with them, so I want to see if there's some other question I could have asked. There is, and on the face of it, it seems almost identical to the one I started with. Instead of asking what would the best essay be? I should have asked how do you write essays well? Though these seem only phrasing apart, their answers diverge. The answer to the first question, as we've seen, isn't really about essay writing. The second question forces it to be. Writing essays, at its best, is a way of discovering ideas. How do you do that well? How do you discover by writing? An essay should ordinarily start with what I'm going to call a question, though I mean this in a very general sense: it doesn't have to be a question grammatically, just something that acts like one in the sense that it spurs some response. How do you get this initial question? It probably won't work to choose some important-sounding topic at random and go at it. Professional traders won't even trade unless they have what they call an edge - a convincing story about why in some class of trades they'll win more than they lose. Similarly, you shouldn't attack a topic unless you have a way in - some new insight about it or way of approaching it. You don't need to have a complete thesis; you just need some kind of gap you can explore. In fact, merely having questions about something other people take for granted can be edge enough. If you come across a question that's sufficiently puzzling, it could be worth exploring even if it doesn't seem very momentous. Many an important discovery has been made by pulling on a thread that seemed insignificant at first. How can they all be finches? [ 2 ] Once you've got a question, then what? You start thinking out loud about it. Not literally out loud, but you commit to a specific string of words in response, as you would if you were talking. This initial response is usually mistaken or incomplete. Writing converts your ideas from vague to bad. But that's a step forward, because once you can see the brokenness, you can fix it. Perhaps beginning writers are alarmed at the thought of starting with something mistaken or incomplete, but you shouldn't be, because this is why essay writing works. Forcing yourself to commit to some specific string of words gives you a starting point, and if it's wrong, you'll see that when you reread it. At least half of essay writing is rereading what you've written and asking is this correct and complete? You have to be very strict when rereading, not just because you want to keep yourself honest, but because a gap between your response and the truth is often a sign of new ideas to be discovered. The prize for being strict with what you've written is not just refinement. When you take a roughly correct answer and try to make it exactly right, sometimes you find that you can't, and that the reason is that you were depending on a false assumption. And when you discard it, the answer turns out to be completely different. [ 3 ] Ideally the response to a question is two things: the first step in a process that converges on the truth, and a source of additional questions (in my very general sense of the word). So the process continues recursively, as response spurs response. [ 4 ] Usually there are several possible responses to a question, which means you're traversing a tree. But essays are linear, not tree-shaped, which means you have to choose one branch to follow at each point. How do you choose? Usually you should follow whichever offers the greatest combination of generality and novelty. I don't consciously rank branches this way; I just follow whichever seems most exciting; but generality and novelty are what make a branch exciting. [ 5 ] If you're willing to do a lot of rewriting, you don't have to guess right. You can follow a branch and see how it turns out, and if it isn't good enough, cut it and backtrack. I do this all the time. In this essay I've already cut a 17-paragraph subtree, in addition to countless shorter ones. Maybe I'll reattach it at the end, or boil it down to a footnote, or spin it off as its own essay; we'll see. [ 6 ] In general you want to be quick to cut. One of the most dangerous temptations in writing (and in software and painting) is to keep something that isn't right, just because it contains a few good bits or cost you a lot of effort. The most surprising new question being thrown off at this point is does it really matter what the initial question is? If the space of ideas is highly connected, it shouldn't, because you should be able to get from any question to the most valuable ones in a few hops. And we see evidence that it's highly connected in the way, for example, that people who are obsessed with some topic can turn any conversation toward it. But that only works if you know where you want to go, and you don't in an essay. That's the whole point. You don't want to be the obsessive conversationalist, or all your essays will be about the same thing. [ 7 ] The other reason the initial question matters is that you usually feel somewhat obliged to stick to it. I don't think about this when I decide which branch to follow. I just follow novelty and generality. Sticking to the question is enforced later, when I notice I've wandered too far and have to backtrack. But I think this is the optimal solution. You don't want the hunt for novelty and generality to be constrained in the moment. Go with it and see what you get. [ 8 ] Since the initial question does constrain you, in the best case it sets an upper bound on the quality of essay you'll write. If you do as well as you possibly can on the chain of thoughts that follow from the initial question, the initial question itself is the only place where there's room for variation. It would be a mistake to let this make you too conservative though, because you can't predict where a question will lead. Not if you're doing things right, because doing things right means making discoveries, and by definition you can't predict those. So the way to respond to this situation is not to be cautious about which initial question you choose, but to write a lot of essays. Essays are for taking risks. Almost any question can get you a good essay. Indeed, it took some effort to think of a sufficiently unpromising topic in the third paragraph, because any essayist's first impulse on hearing that the best essay couldn't be about x would be to try to write it. But if most questions yield good essays, only some yield great ones. Can we predict which questions will yield great essays? Considering how long I've been writing essays, it's alarming how novel that question feels. One thing I like in an initial question is outrageousness. I love questions that seem naughty in some way - for example, by seeming counterintuitive or overambitious or heterodox. Ideally all three. This essay is an example. Writing about the best essay implies there is such a thing, which pseudo-intellectuals will dismiss as reductive, though it follows necessarily from the possibility of one essay being better than another. And thinking about how to do something so ambitious is close enough to doing it that it holds your attention. I like to start an essay with a gleam in my eye. This could be just a taste of mine, but there's one aspect of it that probably isn't: to write a really good essay on some topic, you have to be interested in it. A good writer can write well about anything, but to stretch for the novel insights that are the raison d'etre of the essay, you have to care. If caring about it is one of the criteria for a good initial question, then the optimal question varies from person to person. It also means you're more likely to write great essays if you care about a lot of different things. The more curious you are, the greater the probable overlap between the set of things you're curious about and the set of topics that yield great essays. What other qualities would a great initial question have? It's probably good if it has implications in a lot of different areas. And I find it's a good sign if it's one that people think has already been thoroughly explored. But the truth is that I've barely thought about how to choose initial questions, because I rarely do it. I rarely choose what to write about; I just start thinking about something, and sometimes it turns into an essay. Am I going to stop writing essays about whatever I happen to be thinking about and instead start working my way through some systematically generated list of topics? That doesn't sound like much fun. And yet I want to write good essays, and if the initial question matters, I should care about it. Perhaps the answer is to go one step earlier: to write about whatever pops into your head, but try to ensure that what pops into your head is good. Indeed, now that I think about it, this has to be the answer, because a mere list of topics wouldn't be any use if you didn't have edge with any of them. To start writing an essay, you need a topic plus some initial insight about it, and you can't generate those systematically. If only. [ 9 ] You can probably cause yourself to have more of them, though. The quality of the ideas that come out of your head depends on what goes in, and you can improve that in two dimensions, breadth and depth. You can't learn everything, so getting breadth implies learning about topics that are very different from one another. When I tell people about my book-buying trips to Hay and they ask what I buy books about, I usually feel a bit sheepish answering, because the topics seem like a laundry list of unrelated subjects. But perhaps that's actually optimal in this business. You can also get ideas by talking to people, by doing and building things, and by going places and seeing things. I don't think it's important to talk to new people so much as the sort of people who make you have new ideas. I get more new ideas after talking for <DATE_TIME> with <PERSON> than from talking to 20 new smart people. I know because that's what a block of office <DATE_TIME> at Y Combinator consists of. While breadth comes from reading and talking and seeing, depth comes from doing. The way to really learn about some domain is to have to solve problems in it. Though this could take the form of writing, I suspect that to be a good essayist you also have to do, or have done, some other kind of work. That may not be true for most other fields, but essay writing is different. You could spend half your time working on something else and be net ahead, so long as it was hard. I'm not proposing that as a recipe so much as an encouragement to those already doing it. If you've spent all your life so far working on other things, you're already halfway there. Though of course to be good at writing you have to like it, and if you like writing you'd probably have spent at least some time doing it. Everything I've said about initial questions applies also to the questions you encounter in writing the essay. They're the same thing; every subtree of an essay is usually a shorter essay, just as every subtree of a Calder mobile is a smaller mobile. So any technique that gets you good initial questions also gets you good whole essays. At some point the cycle of question and response reaches what feels like a natural end. Which is a little suspicious; shouldn't every answer suggest more questions? I think what happens is that you start to feel sated. Once you've covered enough interesting ground, you start to lose your appetite for new questions. Which is just as well, because the reader is probably feeling sated too. And it's not lazy to stop asking questions, because you could instead be asking the initial question of a new essay. That's the ultimate source of drag on the connectedness of ideas: the discoveries you make along the way. If you discover enough starting from question A, you'll never make it to question <PERSON> Though if you keep writing essays you'll gradually fix this problem by burning off such discoveries. So bizarrely enough, writing lots of essays makes it as if the space of ideas were more highly connected. When a subtree comes to an end, you can do one of two things. You can either stop, or pull the Cubist trick of laying separate subtrees end to end by returning to a question you skipped earlier. Usually it requires some sleight of hand to make the essay flow continuously at this point, but not this time. This time I actually need an example of the phenomenon. For example, we discovered earlier that the best possible essay wouldn't usually be timeless in the way the best painting would. This seems surprising enough to be worth investigating further. There are two senses in which an essay can be timeless: to be about a matter of permanent importance, and always to have the same effect on readers. With art these two senses blend together. Art that looked beautiful to the ancient <NRP> still looks beautiful to us. But with essays the two senses diverge, because essays teach, and you can't teach people something they already know. Natural selection is certainly a matter of permanent importance, but an essay explaining it couldn't have the same effect on us that it would have had on <PERSON>'s contemporaries, precisely because his ideas were so successful that everyone already knows about them. [ 10 ] I imagined when I started writing this that the best possible essay would be timeless in the stricter, evergreen sense: that it would contain some deep, timeless wisdom that would appeal equally to <PERSON> and <PERSON>. That doesn't seem to be true. But if the best possible essay wouldn't usually be timeless in this stricter sense, what would it take to write essays that were? The answer to that turns out to be very strange: to be the evergreen kind of timeless, an essay has to be ineffective, in the sense that its discoveries aren't assimilated into our shared culture. Otherwise there will be nothing new in it for the second generation of readers. If you want to surprise readers not just now but in the future as well, you have to write essays that won't stick - essays that, no matter how good they are, won't become part of what people in the future learn before they read them. [ 11 ] I can imagine several ways to do that. One would be to write about things people never learn. For example, it's a long-established pattern for ambitious people to chase after various types of prizes, and only later, perhaps too late, to realize that some of them weren't worth as much as they thought. If you write about that, you can be confident of a conveyor belt of future readers to be surprised by it. Ditto if you write about the tendency of the inexperienced to overdo things - of young engineers to produce overcomplicated solutions, for example. There are some kinds of mistakes people never learn to avoid except by making them. Any of those should be a timeless topic. Sometimes when we're slow to grasp things it's not just because we're obtuse or in denial but because we've been deliberately lied to. There are a lot of things adults lie to kids about, and when you reach adulthood, they don't take you aside and hand you a list of them. They don't remember which lies they told you, and most were implicit anyway. So contradicting such lies will be a source of surprises for as long as adults keep telling them. Sometimes it's systems that lie to you. For example, the educational systems in most countries train you to win by hacking the test . But that's not how you win at the most important real-world tests, and after <DATE_TIME> of training, this is hard for new arrivals in the real world to grasp. Helping them overcome such institutional lies will work as long as the institutions remain broken. [ 12 ] Another recipe for timelessness is to write about things readers already know, but in much more detail than can be transmitted culturally. "Everyone knows," for example, that it can be rewarding to have kids . But till you have them you don't know precisely what forms that takes, and even then much of what you know you may never have put into words. I've written about all these kinds of topics. But I didn't do it in a deliberate attempt to write essays that were timeless in the stricter sense. And indeed, the fact that this depends on one's ideas not sticking suggests that it's not worth making a deliberate attempt to. You should write about topics of timeless importance, yes, but if you do such a good job that your conclusions stick and future generations find your essay obvious instead of novel, so much the better. You've crossed into <PERSON> territory. Writing about topics of timeless importance is an instance of something even more general, though: breadth of applicability. And there are more kinds of breadth than chronological - applying to lots of different fields, for example. So breadth is the ultimate aim. I already aim for it. Breadth and novelty are the two things I'm always chasing. But I'm glad I understand where timelessness fits. I understand better where a lot of things fit now. This essay has been a kind of tour of essay writing. I started out hoping to get advice about topics; if you assume good writing, the only thing left to differentiate the best essay is its topic. And I did get advice about topics: discover natural selection. Yeah, that would be nice. But when you step back and ask what's the best you can do short of making some great discovery like that, the answer turns out to be about procedure. Ultimately the quality of an essay is a function of the ideas discovered in it, and the way you get them is by casting a wide net for questions and then being very exacting with the answers. The most striking feature of this map of essay writing are the alternating stripes of inspiration and effort required. The questions depend on inspiration, but the answers can be got by sheer persistence. You don't have to get an answer right the first time, but there's no excuse for not getting it right eventually, because you can keep rewriting till you do. And this is not just a theoretical possibility. It's a pretty accurate description of the way I work. I'm rewriting as we speak. But although I wish I could say that writing great essays depends mostly on effort, in the limit case it's inspiration that makes the difference. In the limit case, the questions are the harder thing to get. That pool has no bottom. How to get more questions? That is the most important question of all. Notes [ 1 ] There might be some resistance to this conclusion on the grounds that some of these discoveries could only be understood by a small number of readers. But you get into all sorts of difficulties if you want to disqualify essays on this account. How do you decide where the cutoff should be? If a virus kills off everyone except a handful of people sequestered at <LOCATION>, could an essay that had been disqualified now be eligible? Etc. <PERSON>'s <DATE_TIME> essay was derived from an earlier version written in <DATE_TIME>. Extracts from it were published in <DATE_TIME>. [ 2 ] When you find yourself very curious about an apparently minor question, that's an exciting sign. Evolution has designed you to pay attention to things that matter. So when you're very curious about something random, that could mean you've unconsciously noticed it's less random than it seems. [ 3 ] Corollary: If you're not intellectually honest, your writing won't just be biased, but also boring, because you'll miss all the ideas you'd have discovered if you pushed for the truth. [ 4 ] Sometimes this process begins before you start writing. Sometimes you've already figured out the first few things you want to say. Schoolchildren are often taught they should decide everything they want to say, and write this down as an outline before they start writing the essay itself. Maybe that's a good way to get them started - or not, I don't know - but it's antithetical to the spirit of essay writing. The more detailed your outline, the less your ideas can benefit from the sort of discovery that essays are for. [ 5 ] The problem with this type of "greedy" algorithm is that you can end up on a local maximum. If the most valuable question is preceded by a boring one, you'll overlook it. But I can't imagine a better strategy. There's no lookahead except by writing. So use a greedy algorithm and a lot of time. [ 6 ] I ended up reattaching the first 5 of the 17 paragraphs, and discarding the rest. [ 7 ] <PERSON> confessed to making use of this phenomenon when taking exams at <LOCATION>. He had in his head a standard essay about some general literary topic, and he would find a way to turn the exam question toward it and then just reproduce it again. Strictly speaking it's the graph of ideas that would be highly connected, not the space, but that usage would confuse people who don't know graph theory, whereas people who do know it will get what I mean if I say "space". [ 8 ] Too far doesn't depend just on the distance from the original topic. It's more like that distance divided by the value of whatever I've discovered in the subtree. [ 9 ] Or can you? I should try writing about this. Even if the chance of succeeding is small, the expected value is huge. [ 10 ] There was a vogue in <DATE_TIME> for saying that the purpose of art was also to teach. Some artists tried to justify their work by explaining that their goal was not to produce something good, but to challenge our preconceptions about art. And to be fair, art can teach somewhat. The ancient <NRP>' naturalistic sculptures represented a new idea, and must have been extra exciting to contemporaries on that account. But they still look good to us. [ 11 ] <PERSON> caused huge controversy in <DATE_TIME> with his ideas about "trial marriage." But they make boring reading now, because they prevailed. "Trial marriage" is what we call "dating." [ 12 ] If you'd asked me <DATE_TIME>, I'd have predicted that schools would continue to teach hacking the test for <DATE_TIME>. But now it seems plausible that students will soon be taught individually by AIs, and that exams will be replaced by ongoing, invisible micro-assessments. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and Harj Taggar for reading drafts of this.
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How to Get New Ideas January 2023 ( Someone fed my essays into GPT to make something that could answer questions based on them, then asked it where good ideas come from. The answer was ok, but not what I would have said. This is what I would have said.) The way to get new ideas is to notice anomalies: what seems strange, or missing, or broken? You can see anomalies in everyday life (much of standup comedy is based on this), but the best place to look for them is at the frontiers of knowledge. Knowledge grows fractally. From a distance its edges look smooth, but when you learn enough to get close to one, you'll notice it's full of gaps. These gaps will seem obvious; it will seem inexplicable that no one has tried x or wondered about y. In the best case, exploring such gaps yields whole new fractal buds.
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The Need to Read November 2022 In the science fiction books I read as a kid, reading had often been replaced by some more efficient way of acquiring knowledge. Mysterious "tapes" would load it into one's brain like a program being loaded into a computer. That sort of thing is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Not just because it would be hard to build a replacement for reading, but because even if one existed, it would be insufficient. Reading about x doesn't just teach you about x; it also teaches you how to write. [ 1 ] Would that matter? If we replaced reading, would anyone need to be good at writing? The reason it would matter is that writing is not just a way to convey ideas, but also a way to have them. A good writer doesn't just think, and then write down what he thought, as a sort of transcript. A good writer will almost always discover new things in the process of writing. And there is, as far as I know, no substitute for this kind of discovery. Talking about your ideas with other people is a good way to develop them. But even after doing this, you'll find you still discover new things when you sit down to write. There is a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing . There are of course kinds of thinking that can be done without writing. If you don't need to go too deeply into a problem, you can solve it without writing. If you're thinking about how two pieces of machinery should fit together, writing about it probably won't help much. And when a problem can be described formally, you can sometimes solve it in your head. But if you need to solve a complicated, ill-defined problem, it will almost always help to write about it. Which in turn means that someone who's not good at writing will almost always be at a disadvantage in solving such problems. You can't think well without writing well, and you can't write well without reading well. And I mean that last "well" in both senses. You have to be good at reading, and read good things. [ 2 ] People who just want information may find other ways to get it. But people who want to have ideas can't afford to. Notes [ 1 ] Audiobooks can give you examples of good writing, but having them read to you doesn't teach you as much about writing as reading them yourself. [ 2 ] By "good at reading" I don't mean good at the mechanics of reading. You don't have to be good at extracting words from the page so much as extracting meaning from the words. <NRP> Translation Chinese Translation Italian Translation French Translation
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What You (Want to)* Want <DATE_TIME> Since I was about 9 I've been puzzled by the apparent contradiction between being made of matter that behaves in a predictable way, and the feeling that I could choose to do whatever I wanted. At the time I had a self-interested motive for exploring the question. At that age (like most succeeding ages) I was always in trouble with the authorities, and it seemed to me that there might possibly be some way to get out of trouble by arguing that I wasn't responsible for my actions. I gradually lost hope of that, but the puzzle remained: How do you reconcile being a machine made of matter with the feeling that you're free to choose what you do? [ 1 ] The best way to explain the answer may be to start with a slightly wrong version, and then fix it. The wrong version is: You can do what you want, but you can't want what you want. Yes, you can control what you do, but you'll do what you want, and you can't control that. The reason this is mistaken is that people do sometimes change what they want. People who don't want to want something - drug addicts, for example - can sometimes make themselves stop wanting it. And people who want to want something - who want to like classical music, or broccoli - sometimes succeed. So we modify our initial statement: You can do what you want, but you can't want to want what you want. That's still not quite true. It's possible to change what you want to want. I can imagine someone saying "I decided to stop wanting to like classical music." But we're getting closer to the truth. It's rare for people to change what they want to want, and the more "want to"s we add, the rarer it gets. We can get arbitrarily close to a true statement by adding more "want to"s in much the same way we can get arbitrarily close to 1 by adding more 9s to a string of 9s following a decimal point. In practice three or four "want to"s must surely be enough. It's hard even to envision what it would mean to change what you want to want to want to want, let alone actually do it. So one way to express the correct answer is to use a regular expression. You can do what you want, but there's some statement of the form "you can't (want to)* want what you want" that's true. Ultimately you get back to a want that you don't control. [ 2 ] Notes [ 1 ] I didn't know when I was <DATE_TIME> that matter might behave randomly, but I don't think it affects the problem much. Randomness destroys the ghost in the machine as effectively as determinism. [ 2 ] If you don't like using an expression, you can make the same point using higher-order desires: There is some n such that you don't control your nth-order desires. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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Alien Truth <DATE_TIME> If there were intelligent beings elsewhere in the universe, they'd share certain truths in common with us. The truths of mathematics would be the same, because they're true by definition. Ditto for the truths of physics; the mass of a carbon atom would be the same on their planet. But I think we'd share other truths with aliens besides the truths of math and physics, and that it would be worthwhile to think about what these might be. For example, I think we'd share the principle that a controlled experiment testing some hypothesis entitles us to have proportionally increased belief in it. It seems fairly likely, too, that it would be true for aliens that one can get better at something by practicing. We'd probably share Occam's razor. There doesn't seem anything specifically human about any of these ideas. We can only guess, of course. We can't say for sure what forms intelligent life might take. Nor is it my goal here to explore that question, interesting though it is. The point of the idea of alien truth is not that it gives us a way to speculate about what forms intelligent life might take, but that it gives us a threshold, or more precisely a target, for truth. If you're trying to find the most general truths short of those of math or physics, then presumably they'll be those we'd share in common with other forms of intelligent life. Alien truth will work best as a heuristic if we err on the side of generosity. If an idea might plausibly be relevant to aliens, that's enough. Justice, for example. I wouldn't want to bet that all intelligent beings would understand the concept of justice, but I wouldn't want to bet against it either. The idea of alien truth is related to Erdos's idea of God's book. He used to describe a particularly good proof as being in God's book, the implication being (a) that a sufficiently good proof was more discovered than invented, and (b) that its goodness would be universally recognized. If there's such a thing as alien truth, then there's more in God's book than math. What should we call the search for alien truth? The obvious choice is "philosophy." Whatever else philosophy includes, it should probably include this. I'm fairly sure <PERSON> would have thought so. One could even make the case that the search for alien truth is, if not an accurate description of philosophy, a good definition for it. I.e. that it's what people who call themselves philosophers should be doing, whether or not they currently are. But I'm not wedded to that; doing it is what matters, not what we call it. We may one day have something like alien life among us in the form of AIs. And that may in turn allow us to be precise about what truths an intelligent being would have to share with us. We might find, for example, that it's impossible to create something we'd consider intelligent that doesn't use Occam's razor. We might one day even be able to prove that. But though this sort of research would be very interesting, it's not necessary for our purposes, or even the same field; the goal of philosophy, if we're going to call it that, would be to see what ideas we come up with using alien truth as a target, not to say precisely where the threshold of it is. Those two questions might <DATE_TIME> converge, but they'll converge from quite different directions, and till they do, it would be too constraining to restrict ourselves to thinking only about things we're certain would be alien truths. Especially since this will probably be one of those areas where the best guesses turn out to be surprisingly close to optimal. (Let's see if that one does.) Whatever we call it, the attempt to discover alien truths would be a worthwhile undertaking. And curiously enough, that is itself probably an alien truth. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Putting Ideas into Words <DATE_TIME> Writing about something, even something you know well, usually shows you that you didn't know it as well as you thought. Putting ideas into words is a severe test. The first words you choose are usually wrong; you have to rewrite sentences over and over to get them exactly right. And your ideas won't just be imprecise, but incomplete too. Half the ideas that end up in an essay will be ones you thought of while you were writing it. Indeed, that's why I write them. Once you publish something, the convention is that whatever you wrote was what you thought before you wrote it. These were your ideas, and now you've expressed them. But you know this isn't true. You know that putting your ideas into words changed them. And not just the ideas you published. Presumably there were others that turned out to be too broken to fix, and those you discarded instead. It's not just having to commit your ideas to specific words that makes writing so exacting. The real test is reading what you've written. You have to pretend to be a neutral reader who knows nothing of what's in your head, only what you wrote. When he reads what you wrote, does it seem correct? Does it seem complete? If you make an effort, you can read your writing as if you were a complete stranger, and when you do the news is usually bad. It takes me many cycles before I can get an essay past the stranger. But the stranger is rational, so you always can, if you ask him what he needs. If he's not satisfied because you failed to mention x or didn't qualify some sentence sufficiently, then you mention x or add more qualifications. Happy now? It may cost you some nice sentences, but you have to resign yourself to that. You just have to make them as good as you can and still satisfy the stranger. This much, I assume, won't be that controversial. I think it will accord with the experience of anyone who has tried to write about anything nontrivial. There may exist people whose thoughts are so perfectly formed that they just flow straight into words. But I've never known anyone who could do this, and if I met someone who said they could, it would seem evidence of their limitations rather than their ability. Indeed, this is a trope in movies: the guy who claims to have a plan for doing some difficult thing, and who when questioned further, taps his head and says "It's all up here." Everyone watching the movie knows what that means. At best the plan is vague and incomplete. Very likely there's some undiscovered flaw that invalidates it completely. At best it's a plan for a plan. In precisely defined domains it's possible to form complete ideas in your head. People can play chess in their heads, for example. And mathematicians can do some amount of math in their heads, though they don't seem to feel sure of a proof over a certain length till they write it down. But this only seems possible with ideas you can express in a formal language. [ 1 ] Arguably what such people are doing is putting ideas into words in their heads. I can to some extent write essays in my head. I'll sometimes think of a paragraph while walking or lying in bed that survives nearly unchanged in the final version. But really I'm writing when I do this. I'm doing the mental part of writing; my fingers just aren't moving as I do it. [ 2 ] You can know a great deal about something without writing about it. Can you ever know so much that you wouldn't learn more from trying to explain what you know? I don't think so. I've written about at least two subjects I know well - Lisp hacking and startups - and in both cases I learned a lot from writing about them. In both cases there were things I didn't consciously realize till I had to explain them. And I don't think my experience was anomalous. A great deal of knowledge is unconscious, and experts have if anything a higher proportion of unconscious knowledge than beginners. I'm not saying that writing is the best way to explore all ideas. If you have ideas about architecture, presumably the best way to explore them is to build actual buildings. What I'm saying is that however much you learn from exploring ideas in other ways, you'll still learn new things from writing about them. Putting ideas into words doesn't have to mean writing, of course. You can also do it the old way, by talking. But in my experience, writing is the stricter test. You have to commit to a single, optimal sequence of words. Less can go unsaid when you don't have tone of voice to carry meaning. And you can focus in a way that would seem excessive in conversation. I'll often spend <DATE_TIME> on an essay and reread drafts 50 times. If you did that in conversation it would seem evidence of some kind of mental disorder. If you're lazy, of course, writing and talking are equally useless. But if you want to push yourself to get things right, writing is the steeper hill. [ 3 ] The reason I've spent so long establishing this rather obvious point is that it leads to another that many people will find shocking. If writing down your ideas always makes them more precise and more complete, then no one who hasn't written about a topic has fully formed ideas about it. And someone who never writes has no fully formed ideas about anything nontrivial. It feels to them as if they do, especially if they're not in the habit of critically examining their own thinking. Ideas can feel complete. It's only when you try to put them into words that you discover they're not. So if you never subject your ideas to that test, you'll not only never have fully formed ideas, but also never realize it. Putting ideas into words is certainly no guarantee that they'll be right. Far from it. But though it's not a sufficient condition, it is a necessary one. Notes [ 1 ] Machinery and circuits are formal languages. [ 2 ] I thought of this sentence as I was walking down the street in <LOCATION>. [ 3 ] There are two senses of talking to someone: a strict sense in which the conversation is verbal, and a more general sense in which it can take any form, including writing. In the limit case (e.g. Seneca's letters), conversation in the latter sense becomes essay writing. It can be very useful to talk (in either sense) with other people as you're writing something. But a verbal conversation will never be more exacting than when you're talking about something you're writing. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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Is There Such a Thing as Good Taste? <DATE_TIME> (This essay is derived from a talk at the Cambridge Union.) When I was a kid, I'd have said there wasn't. My father told me so. Some people like some things, and other people like other things, and who's to say who's right? It seemed so obvious that there was no such thing as good taste that it was only through indirect evidence that I realized my father was wrong. And that's what I'm going to give you here: a proof by reductio ad absurdum. If we start from the premise that there's no such thing as good taste, we end up with conclusions that are obviously false, and therefore the premise must be wrong. We'd better start by saying what good taste is. There's a narrow sense in which it refers to aesthetic judgements and a broader one in which it refers to preferences of any kind. The strongest proof would be to show that taste exists in the narrowest sense, so I'm going to talk about taste in art. You have better taste than me if the art you like is better than the art I like. If there's no such thing as good taste, then there's no such thing as good art . Because if there is such a thing as good art, it's easy to tell which of two people has better taste. Show them a lot of works by artists they've never seen before and ask them to choose the best, and whoever chooses the better art has better taste. So if you want to discard the concept of good taste, you also have to discard the concept of good art. And that means you have to discard the possibility of people being good at making it. Which means there's no way for artists to be good at their jobs. And not just visual artists, but anyone who is in any sense an artist. You can't have good actors, or novelists, or composers, or dancers either. You can have popular novelists, but not good ones. We don't realize how far we'd have to go if we discarded the concept of good taste, because we don't even debate the most obvious cases. But it doesn't just mean we can't say which of two famous painters is better. It means we can't say that any painter is better than a randomly chosen <DATE_TIME>. That was how I realized my father was wrong. I started studying painting. And it was just like other kinds of work I'd done: you could do it well, or badly, and if you tried hard, you could get better at it. And it was obvious that <PERSON> and <PERSON> were much better at it than me. That gap between us was not imaginary. They were so good. And if they could be good, then art could be good, and there was such a thing as good taste after all. Now that I've explained how to show there is such a thing as good taste, I should also explain why people think there isn't. There are two reasons. One is that there's always so much disagreement about taste. Most people's response to art is a tangle of unexamined impulses. Is the artist famous? Is the subject attractive? Is this the sort of art they're supposed to like? Is it hanging in a famous museum, or reproduced in a big, expensive book? In practice most people's response to art is dominated by such extraneous factors. And the people who do claim to have good taste are so often mistaken. The paintings admired by the so-called experts in one generation are often so different from those admired a few generations later. It's easy to conclude there's nothing real there at all. It's only when you isolate this force, for example by trying to paint and comparing your work to Bellini's, that you can see that it does in fact exist. The other reason people doubt that art can be good is that there doesn't seem to be any room in the art for this goodness. The argument goes like this. Imagine several people looking at a work of art and judging how good it is. If being good art really is a property of objects, it should be in the object somehow. But it doesn't seem to be; it seems to be something happening in the heads of each of the observers. And if they disagree, how do you choose between them? The solution to this puzzle is to realize that the purpose of art is to work on its human audience, and humans have a lot in common. And to the extent the things an object acts upon respond in the same way, that's arguably what it means for the object to have the corresponding property. If everything a particle interacts with behaves as if the particle had a mass of m , then it has a mass of m . So the distinction between "objective" and "subjective" is not binary, but a matter of degree, depending on how much the subjects have in common. Particles interacting with one another are at one pole, but people interacting with art are not all the way at the other; their reactions aren't random . Because people's responses to art aren't random, art can be designed to operate on people, and be good or bad depending on how effectively it does so. Much as a vaccine can be. If someone were talking about the ability of a vaccine to confer immunity, it would seem very frivolous to object that conferring immunity wasn't really a property of vaccines, because acquiring immunity is something that happens in the immune system of each individual person. Sure, people's immune systems vary, and a vaccine that worked on one might not work on another, but that doesn't make it meaningless to talk about the effectiveness of a vaccine. The situation with art is messier, of course. You can't measure effectiveness by simply taking a vote, as you do with vaccines. You have to imagine the responses of subjects with a deep knowledge of art, and enough clarity of mind to be able to ignore extraneous influences like the fame of the artist. And even then you'd still see some disagreement. People do vary, and judging art is hard, especially recent art. There is definitely not a total order either of works or of people's ability to judge them. But there is equally definitely a partial order of both. So while it's not possible to have perfect taste, it is possible to have good taste. Thanks to the Cambridge Union for inviting me, and to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Weird Languages <DATE_TIME> When people say that in their experience all programming languages are basically equivalent, they're making a statement not about languages but about the kind of programming they've done. 99.5% of programming consists of gluing together calls to library functions. All popular languages are equally good at this. So one can easily spend one's whole career operating in the intersection of popular programming languages. But the other .5% of programming is disproportionately interesting. If you want to learn what it consists of, the weirdness of weird languages is a good clue to follow. Weird languages aren't weird by accident. Not the good ones, at least. The weirdness of the good ones usually implies the existence of some form of programming that's not just the usual gluing together of library calls. A concrete example: Lisp macros. Lisp macros seem weird even to many Lisp programmers. They're not only not in the intersection of popular languages, but by their nature would be hard to implement properly in a language without turning it into a dialect of Lisp. And macros are definitely evidence of techniques that go beyond glue programming. For example, solving problems by first writing a language for problems of that type, and then writing your specific application in it. Nor is this all you can do with macros; it's just one region in a space of program-manipulating techniques that even now is far from fully explored. So if you want to expand your concept of what programming can be, one way to do it is by learning weird languages. Pick a language that most programmers consider weird but whose median user is smart, and then focus on the differences between this language and the intersection of popular languages. What can you say in this language that would be impossibly inconvenient to say in others? In the process of learning how to say things you couldn't previously say, you'll probably be learning how to think things you couldn't previously think. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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A Project of One's Own June 2021 <DATE_TIME>, on the way home from school, my <DATE_TIME> son told me he couldn't wait to get home to write more of the story he was working on. This made me as happy as anything I've heard him say - not just because he was excited about his story, but because he'd discovered this way of working. Working on a project of your own is as different from ordinary work as skating is from walking. It's more fun, but also much more productive. What proportion of great work has been done by people who were skating in this sense? If not all of it, certainly a lot. There is something special about working on a project of your own. I wouldn't say exactly that you're happier. A better word would be excited, or engaged. You're happy when things are going well, but often they aren't. When I'm writing an essay, most of the time I'm worried and puzzled: worried that the essay will turn out badly, and puzzled because I'm groping for some idea that I can't see clearly enough. Will I be able to pin it down with words? In the end I usually can, if I take long enough, but I'm never sure; the first few attempts often fail. You have moments of happiness when things work out, but they don't last long, because then you're on to the next problem. So why do it at all? Because to the kind of people who like working this way, nothing else feels as right. You feel as if you're an animal in its natural habitat, doing what you were meant to do - not always happy, maybe, but awake and alive. Many kids experience the excitement of working on projects of their own. The hard part is making this converge with the work you do as an adult. And our customs make it harder. We treat "playing" and "hobbies" as qualitatively different from "work". It's not clear to a kid building a treehouse that there's a direct (though long) route from that to architecture or engineering. And instead of pointing out the route, we conceal it, by implicitly treating the stuff kids do as different from real work. [ 1 ] Instead of telling kids that their treehouses could be on the path to the work they do as adults, we tell them the path goes through school. And unfortunately schoolwork tends to be very different from working on projects of one's own. It's usually neither a project, nor one's own. So as school gets more serious, working on projects of one's own is something that survives, if at all, as a thin thread off to the side. It's a bit sad to think of all the high school kids turning their backs on building treehouses and sitting in class dutifully learning about <PERSON> or Newton to pass some exam, when the work that made <PERSON> and <PERSON> famous was actually closer in spirit to building treehouses than studying for exams. If I had to choose between my kids getting good grades and working on ambitious projects of their own, I'd pick the projects. And not because I'm an indulgent parent, but because I've been on the other end and I know which has more predictive value. When I was picking startups for Y Combinator, I didn't care about applicants' grades. But if they'd worked on projects of their own, I wanted to hear all about those. [ 2 ] It may be inevitable that school is the way it is. I'm not saying we have to redesign it (though I'm not saying we don't), just that we should understand what it does to our attitudes to work - that it steers us toward the dutiful plodding kind of work, often using competition as bait, and away from skating. There are occasionally times when schoolwork becomes a project of one's own. Whenever I had to write a paper, that would become a project of my own - except in English classes, ironically, because the things one has to write in English classes are so bogus . And when I got to college and started taking CS classes, the programs I had to write became projects of my own. Whenever I was writing or programming, I was usually skating, and that has been true ever since. So where exactly is the edge of projects of one's own? That's an interesting question, partly because the answer is so complicated, and partly because there's so much at stake. There turn out to be two senses in which work can be one's own: 1) that you're doing it voluntarily, rather than merely because someone told you to, and 2) that you're doing it by yourself. The edge of the former is quite sharp. People who care a lot about their work are usually very sensitive to the difference between pulling, and being pushed, and work tends to fall into one category or the other. But the test isn't simply whether you're told to do something. You can choose to do something you're told to do. Indeed, you can own it far more thoroughly than the person who told you to do it. For example, math homework is for most people something they're told to do. But for my father, who was a mathematician, it wasn't. Most of us think of the problems in a math book as a way to test or develop our knowledge of the material explained in each section. But to my father the problems were the part that mattered, and the text was merely a sort of annotation. Whenever he got a new math book it was to him like being given a puzzle: here was a new set of problems to solve, and he'd immediately set about solving all of them. The other sense of a project being one's own - working on it by oneself - has a much softer edge. It shades gradually into collaboration. And interestingly, it shades into collaboration in two different ways. One way to collaborate is to share a single project. For example, when two mathematicians collaborate on a proof that takes shape in the course of a conversation between them. The other way is when multiple people work on separate projects of their own that fit together like a jigsaw puzzle. For example, when one person writes the text of a book and another does the graphic design. [ 3 ] These two paths into collaboration can of course be combined. But under the right conditions, the excitement of working on a project of one's own can be preserved for quite a while before disintegrating into the turbulent flow of work in a large organization. Indeed, the history of successful organizations is partly the history of techniques for preserving that excitement. [ 4 ] The team that made the original Macintosh were a great example of this phenomenon. People like <PERSON> and <PERSON> and <PERSON> and <PERSON> were not just following orders. They were not tennis balls hit by <PERSON>, but rockets let loose by <PERSON>. There was a lot of collaboration between them, but they all seem to have individually felt the excitement of working on a project of one's own. In <PERSON> book on the Macintosh, he describes how they'd come back into the office after dinner and work late into the night. People who've never experienced the thrill of working on a project they're excited about can't distinguish this kind of <DATE_TIME> from the kind that happens in sweatshops and boiler rooms, but they're at opposite ends of the spectrum. That's why it's a mistake to insist dogmatically on "work/life balance." Indeed, the mere expression "work/life" embodies a mistake: it assumes work and life are distinct. For those to whom the word "work" automatically implies the dutiful plodding kind, they are. But for the skaters, the relationship between work and life would be better represented by a dash than a slash. I wouldn't want to work on anything that I didn't want to take over my life. Of course, it's easier to achieve this level of motivation when you're making something like the Macintosh. It's easy for something new to feel like a project of your own. That's one of the reasons for the tendency programmers have to rewrite things that don't need rewriting, and to write their own versions of things that already exist. This sometimes alarms managers, and measured by total number of characters typed, it's rarely the optimal solution. But it's not always driven simply by arrogance or cluelessness. Writing code from scratch is also much more rewarding - so much more rewarding that a good programmer can end up net ahead, despite the shocking waste of characters. Indeed, it may be one of the advantages of capitalism that it encourages such rewriting. A company that needs software to do something can't use the software already written to do it at another company, and thus has to write their own, which often turns out better. [ 5 ] The natural alignment between skating and solving new problems is one of the reasons the payoffs from startups are so high. Not only is the market price of unsolved problems higher, you also get a discount on productivity when you work on them. In fact, you get a double increase in productivity: when you're doing a clean-sheet design, it's easier to recruit skaters, and they get to spend all their time skating. <PERSON> knew a thing or two about skaters from having watched <PERSON>. If you can find the right people, you only have to tell them what to do at the highest level. They'll handle the details. Indeed, they insist on it. For a project to feel like your own, you must have sufficient autonomy. You can't be working to order, or slowed down by bureaucracy. One way to ensure autonomy is not to have a boss at all. There are two ways to do that: to be the boss yourself, and to work on projects outside of work. Though they're at opposite ends of the scale financially, startups and open source projects have a lot in common, including the fact that they're often run by skaters. And indeed, there's a wormhole from one end of the scale to the other: one of the best ways to discover startup ideas is to work on a project just for fun. If your projects are the kind that make money, it's easy to work on them. It's harder when they're not. And the hardest part, usually, is morale. That's where adults have it harder than kids. Kids just plunge in and build their treehouse without worrying about whether they're wasting their time, or how it compares to other treehouses. And frankly we could learn a lot from kids here. The high standards most grownups have for "real" work do not always serve us well. The most important phase in a project of one's own is at the beginning: when you go from thinking it might be cool to do x to actually doing x. And at that point high standards are not merely useless but positively harmful. There are a few people who start too many new projects, but far more, I suspect, who are deterred by fear of failure from starting projects that would have succeeded if they had. But if we couldn't benefit as kids from the knowledge that our treehouses were on the path to grownup projects, we can at least benefit as grownups from knowing that our projects are on a path that stretches back to treehouses. Remember that careless confidence you had as a kid when starting something new? That would be a powerful thing to recapture. If it's harder as adults to retain that kind of confidence, we at least tend to be more aware of what we're doing. Kids bounce, or are herded, from one kind of work to the next, barely realizing what's happening to them. Whereas we know more about different types of work and have more control over which we do. Ideally we can have the best of both worlds: to be deliberate in choosing to work on projects of our own, and carelessly confident in starting new ones. Notes [ 1 ] "Hobby" is a curious word. Now it means work that isn't real work - work that one is not to be judged by - but originally it just meant an obsession in a fairly general sense (even a political opinion, for example) that one metaphorically rode as a child rides a hobby-horse. It's hard to say if its recent, narrower meaning is a change for the better or the worse. For sure there are lots of false positives - lots of projects that end up being important but are dismissed initially as mere hobbies. But on the other hand, the concept provides valuable cover for projects in the early, ugly duckling phase. [ 2 ] Tiger parents, as parents so often do, are fighting the last war. Grades mattered more in <DATE_TIME> when the route to success was to acquire credentials while ascending some predefined ladder. But it's just as well that their tactics are focused on grades. How awful it would be if they invaded the territory of projects, and thereby gave their kids a distaste for this kind of work by forcing them to do it. Grades are already a grim, fake world, and aren't harmed much by parental interference, but working on one's own projects is a more delicate, private thing that could be damaged very easily. [ 3 ] The complicated, gradual edge between working on one's own projects and collaborating with others is one reason there is so much disagreement about the idea of the "lone genius." In practice people collaborate (or not) in all kinds of different ways, but the idea of the lone genius is definitely not a myth. There's a core of truth to it that goes with a certain way of working. [ 4 ] Collaboration is powerful too. The optimal organization would combine collaboration and ownership in such a way as to do the least damage to each. Interestingly, companies and university departments approach this ideal from opposite directions: companies insist on collaboration, and occasionally also manage both to recruit skaters and allow them to skate, and university departments insist on the ability to do independent research (which is by custom treated as skating, whether it is or not), and the people they hire collaborate as much as they choose. [ 5 ] If a company could design its software in such a way that the best newly arrived programmers always got a clean sheet, it could have a kind of eternal youth. That might not be impossible. If you had a software backbone defining a game with sufficiently clear rules, individual programmers could write their own players. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Fierce Nerds <DATE_TIME> Most people think of nerds as quiet, diffident people. In ordinary social situations they are - as quiet and diffident as the star quarterback would be if he found himself in the middle of a physics symposium. And for the same reason: they are fish out of water. But the apparent diffidence of nerds is an illusion due to the fact that when non-nerds observe them, it's usually in ordinary social situations. In fact some nerds are quite fierce. The fierce nerds are a small but interesting group. They are as a rule extremely competitive - more competitive, I'd say, than highly competitive non-nerds. Competition is more personal for them. Partly perhaps because they're not emotionally mature enough to distance themselves from it, but also because there's less randomness in the kinds of competition they engage in, and they are thus more justified in taking the results personally. Fierce nerds also tend to be somewhat overconfident, especially when young. It might seem like it would be a disadvantage to be mistaken about one's abilities, but empirically it isn't. Up to a point, confidence is a self-fullfilling prophecy. Another quality you find in most fierce nerds is intelligence. Not all nerds are smart, but the fierce ones are always at least moderately so. If they weren't, they wouldn't have the confidence to be fierce. [ 1 ] There's also a natural connection between nerdiness and independent-mindedness . It's hard to be independent-minded without being somewhat socially awkward, because conventional beliefs are so often mistaken, or at least arbitrary. No one who was both independent-minded and ambitious would want to waste the effort it takes to fit in. And the independent-mindedness of the fierce nerds will obviously be of the aggressive rather than the passive type: they'll be annoyed by rules, rather than dreamily unaware of them. I'm less sure why fierce nerds are impatient, but most seem to be. You notice it first in conversation, where they tend to interrupt you. This is merely annoying, but in the more promising fierce nerds it's connected to a deeper impatience about solving problems. Perhaps the competitiveness and impatience of fierce nerds are not separate qualities, but two manifestations of a single underlying drivenness. When you combine all these qualities in sufficient quantities, the result is quite formidable. The most vivid example of fierce nerds in action may be <PERSON> The Double Helix . The first sentence of the book is "I have never seen <PERSON> in a modest mood," and the portrait he goes on to paint of <PERSON> is the quintessential fierce nerd: brilliant, socially awkward, competitive, independent-minded, overconfident. But so is the implicit portrait he paints of himself. Indeed, his lack of social awareness makes both portraits that much more realistic, because he baldly states all sorts of opinions and motivations that a smoother person would conceal. And moreover it's clear from the story that <PERSON> and <PERSON>'s fierce nerdiness was integral to their success. Their independent-mindedness caused them to consider approaches that most others ignored, their overconfidence allowed them to work on problems they only half understood (they were literally described as "clowns" by one eminent insider), and their impatience and competitiveness got them to the answer ahead of two other groups that would otherwise have found it within <DATE_TIME>, if not <DATE_TIME>. [ 2 ] The idea that there could be fierce nerds is an unfamiliar one not just to many normal people but even to some young nerds. Especially early on, nerds spend so much of their time in ordinary social situations and so little doing real work that they get a lot more evidence of their awkwardness than their power. So there will be some who read this description of the fierce nerd and realize "Hmm, that's me." And it is to you, young fierce nerd, that I now turn. I have some good news, and some bad news. The good news is that your fierceness will be a great help in solving difficult problems. And not just the kind of scientific and technical problems that nerds have traditionally solved. As the world progresses, the number of things you can win at by getting the right answer increases. Recently getting rich became one of them: 7 of the 8 richest people in <LOCATION> are now fierce nerds. Indeed, being a fierce nerd is probably even more helpful in business than in nerds' original territory of scholarship. Fierceness seems optional there. <PERSON> for example doesn't seem to have been especially fierce. Whereas it's impossible to be the CEO of a company over a certain size without being fierce, so now that nerds can win at business, fierce nerds will increasingly monopolize the really big successes. The bad news is that if it's not exercised, your fierceness will turn to bitterness, and you will become an intellectual playground bully: the grumpy sysadmin, the forum troll, the hater , the shooter down of new ideas . How do you avoid this fate? Work on ambitious projects. If you succeed, it will bring you a kind of satisfaction that neutralizes bitterness. But you don't need to have succeeded to feel this; merely working on hard projects gives most fierce nerds some feeling of satisfaction. And those it doesn't, it at least keeps busy. [ 3 ] Another solution may be to somehow turn off your fierceness, by devoting yourself to meditation or psychotherapy or something like that. Maybe that's the right answer for some people. I have no idea. But it doesn't seem the optimal solution to me. If you're given a sharp knife, it seems to me better to use it than to blunt its edge to avoid cutting yourself. If you do choose the ambitious route, you'll have a tailwind behind you. There has never been a better time to be a nerd. In <DATE_TIME> we've seen a continuous transfer of power from dealmakers to technicians - from the charismatic to the competent - and I don't see anything on the horizon that will end it. At least not till the nerds end it themselves by bringing about the singularity. Notes [ 1 ] To be a nerd is to be socially awkward, and there are two distinct ways to do that: to be playing the same game as everyone else, but badly, and to be playing a different game. The smart nerds are the latter type. [ 2 ] The same qualities that make fierce nerds so effective can also make them very annoying. Fierce nerds would do well to remember this, and (a) try to keep a lid on it, and (b) seek out organizations and types of work where getting the right answer matters more than preserving social harmony. In practice that means small groups working on hard problems. Which fortunately is the most fun kind of environment anyway. [ 3 ] If success neutralizes bitterness, why are there some people who are at least moderately successful and yet still quite bitter? Because people's potential bitterness varies depending on how naturally bitter their personality is, and how ambitious they are: someone who's naturally very bitter will still have a lot left after success neutralizes some of it, and someone who's very ambitious will need proportionally more success to satisfy that ambition. So the worst-case scenario is someone who's both naturally bitter and extremely ambitious, and yet only moderately successful. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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An NFT That Saves Lives <DATE_TIME> Noora Health , a nonprofit I've supported for <DATE_TIME>, just launched a new NFT. It has a dramatic name, Save Thousands of Lives , because that's what the proceeds will do. <PERSON> has been saving lives for <DATE_TIME>. They run programs in hospitals in <LOCATION> to teach new mothers how to take care of their babies once they get home. They're in 165 hospitals now. And because they know the numbers before and after they start at a new hospital, they can measure the impact they have. It is massive. For every 1000 live births, they save 9 babies. This number comes from a study of 133,733 families at 28 different hospitals that <PERSON> conducted in collaboration with the Better Birth team at Ariadne Labs, a joint center for health systems innovation at Brigham and Womens Hospital and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. <PERSON> is so effective that even if you measure their costs in the most conservative way, by dividing their entire budget by the number of lives saved, the cost of saving a life is the lowest I've seen. $1,235. For this NFT, they're going to issue a public report tracking how this specific tranche of money is spent, and estimating the number of lives saved as a result. NFTs are a new territory, and this way of using them is especially new, but I'm excited about its potential. And I'm excited to see what happens with this particular auction, because unlike an NFT representing something that has already happened, this NFT gets better as the price gets higher. The reserve price was about $2.5 million, because that's what it takes for the name to be accurate: that's what it costs to save 2000 lives. But the higher the price of this NFT goes, the more lives will be saved. What a sentence to be able to write.
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The Real Reason to End the Death Penalty <DATE_TIME> When intellectuals talk about the death penalty, they talk about things like whether it's permissible for the state to take someone's life, whether the death penalty acts as a deterrent, and whether more death sentences are given to some groups than others. But in practice the debate about the death penalty is not about whether it's ok to kill murderers. It's about whether it's ok to kill innocent people, because at least 4% of people on death row are innocent . When I was a kid I imagined that it was unusual for people to be convicted of crimes they hadn't committed, and that in murder cases especially this must be very rare. Far from it. Now, thanks to organizations like the Innocence Project , we see a constant stream of stories about murder convictions being overturned after new evidence emerges. Sometimes the police and prosecutors were just very sloppy. Sometimes they were crooked, and knew full well they were convicting an innocent person. <PERSON> and three other men spent <DATE_TIME> in prison on a murder conviction. They were exonerated after DNA testing implicated three different men, two of whom later confessed. The police had been told about the other men early in the investigation, but never followed up the lead. <PERSON> spent <DATE_TIME> in prison on a murder conviction. He was convicted because "experts" said his teeth matched photos of bite marks on one victim. He was exonerated after DNA testing showed the murder had been committed by another man, <PERSON>. <PERSON> and two other men spent <DATE_TIME> in prison after being convicted of murder on the testimony of a <DATE_TIME> boy, who later recanted and said he'd been coerced by police. Multiple people have confirmed the boy was elsewhere at the time. The three men were exonerated after the county prosecutor dropped the charges, saying "The state is conceding the obvious." <PERSON> spent <DATE_TIME> in prison on a murder conviction, including <DATE_TIME> on death row. He was exonerated after it was discovered that the assistant district attorney had concealed phone records proving he could not have committed the crimes. <PERSON> spent <DATE_TIME> on death row after having been convicted of murder. He was exonerated after new evidence proved he was not even at the scene when the murder occurred. The attorneys assigned to represent him had never tried a jury case before. <PERSON> was actually executed in <DATE_TIME> by lethal injection. The "expert" who testified that he deliberately set fire to his house has since been discredited. A re-examination of the case ordered by the state of <LOCATION> in <DATE_TIME> concluded that "a finding of arson could not be sustained." Rich Glossip has spent <DATE_TIME> on death row after being convicted of murder on the testimony of the actual killer, who escaped with a life sentence in return for implicating him. In <DATE_TIME> he came within <DATE_TIME> of execution before it emerged that <LOCATION> had been planning to kill him with an illegal combination of drugs. They still plan to go ahead with the execution, perhaps as soon as <DATE_TIME>, despite new evidence exonerating him. I could go on. There are hundreds of similar cases. In <LOCATION> alone, 29 death row prisoners have been exonerated so far. Far from being rare, wrongful murder convictions are very common . Police are under pressure to solve a crime that has gotten a lot of attention. When they find a suspect, they want to believe he's guilty, and ignore or even destroy evidence suggesting otherwise. District attorneys want to be seen as effective and tough on crime, and in order to win convictions are willing to manipulate witnesses and withhold evidence. Court-appointed defense attorneys are overworked and often incompetent. There's a ready supply of criminals willing to give false testimony in return for a lighter sentence, suggestible witnesses who can be made to say whatever police want, and bogus "experts" eager to claim that science proves the defendant is guilty. And juries want to believe them, since otherwise some terrible crime remains unsolved. This circus of incompetence and dishonesty is the real issue with the death penalty. We don't even reach the point where theoretical questions about the moral justification or effectiveness of capital punishment start to matter, because so many of the people sentenced to death are actually innocent. Whatever it means in theory, in practice capital punishment means killing innocent people. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. Related: Will <LOCATION> Kill an Innocent Man? Was <PERSON> for Murder? Did <LOCATION> execute an innocent man?
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How People Get Rich Now <DATE_TIME> since <DATE_TIME>, Forbes magazine has published a list of the richest <NRP>. If we compare the 100 richest people in <DATE_TIME> to the 100 richest in <DATE_TIME>, we notice some big differences. In <DATE_TIME> the most common source of wealth was inheritance. Of the 100 richest people, 60 inherited from an ancestor. There were 10 du Pont heirs alone. By <DATE_TIME> the number of heirs had been cut in half, accounting for only 27 of the biggest 100 fortunes. Why would the percentage of heirs decrease? Not because inheritance taxes increased. In fact, they decreased significantly during this period. The reason the percentage of heirs has decreased is not that fewer people are inheriting great fortunes, but that more people are making them. How are people making these new fortunes? Roughly 3/4 by starting companies and 1/4 by investing. Of the 73 new fortunes in <DATE_TIME>, 56 derive from founders' or early employees' equity (52 founders, 2 early employees, and 2 wives of founders), and 17 from managing investment funds. There were no fund managers among the 100 richest <NRP> in <DATE_TIME>. Hedge funds and private equity firms existed in <DATE_TIME>, but none of their founders were rich enough yet to make it into the top 100. Two things changed: fund managers discovered new ways to generate high returns, and more investors were willing to trust them with their money. [ 1 ] But the main source of new fortunes now is starting companies, and when you look at the data, you see big changes there too. People get richer from starting companies now than they did in <DATE_TIME>, because the companies do different things. In <DATE_TIME>, there were two dominant sources of new wealth: oil and real estate. Of the 40 new fortunes in <DATE_TIME>, at least 24 were due primarily to oil or real estate. Now only a small number are: of the 73 new fortunes in <DATE_TIME>, 4 were due to real estate and only 2 to oil. By <DATE_TIME> the biggest source of new wealth was what are sometimes called "tech" companies. Of the 73 new fortunes, about 30 derive from such companies. These are particularly common among the richest of the rich: 8 of the top 10 fortunes in <DATE_TIME> were new fortunes of this type. Arguably it's slightly misleading to treat tech as a category. Isn't Amazon really a retailer, and Tesla a car maker? Yes and no. Maybe in <DATE_TIME>, when what we call tech is taken for granted, it won't seem right to put these two businesses in the same category. But at the moment at least, there is definitely something they share in common that distinguishes them. What retailer starts AWS? What car maker is run by someone who also has a rocket company? The tech companies behind the top 100 fortunes also form a well-differentiated group in the sense that they're all companies that venture capitalists would readily invest in, and the others mostly not. And there's a reason why: these are mostly companies that win by having better technology, rather than just a CEO who's really driven and good at making deals. To that extent, the rise of the tech companies represents a qualitative change. The oil and real estate magnates of the <DATE_TIME> Forbes 400 didn't win by making better technology. They won by being really driven and good at making deals. [ 2 ] And indeed, that way of getting rich is so old that it predates the Industrial Revolution. The courtiers who got rich in the (nominal) service of <NRP> royal houses in <DATE_TIME> were also, as a rule, really driven and good at making deals. People who don't look any deeper than the <PERSON> coefficient look back on the world of <DATE_TIME> as <DATE_TIME>, because those who got rich then didn't get as rich. But if you dig into how they got rich, the old days don't look so good. In <DATE_TIME>, 84% of the richest 100 people got rich by inheritance, extracting natural resources, or doing real estate deals. Is that really better than a world in which the richest people get rich by starting tech companies? Why are people starting so many more new companies than they used to, and why are they getting so rich from it? The answer to the first question, curiously enough, is that it's misphrased. We shouldn't be asking why people are starting companies, but why they're starting companies again . [ 3 ] In <DATE_TIME>, the New York Herald Tribune compiled a list of all the millionaires in <LOCATION>. They found <DATE_TIME> of them. How many had inherited their wealth then? Only about 20%, which is less than the proportion of heirs <DATE_TIME>. And when you investigate the sources of the new fortunes, <DATE_TIME> looks even more like <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON> found that "many of the richest ... gained their initial edge from the new technology of mass production." [ 4 ] So it's not <DATE_TIME> that's the anomaly here, but <DATE_TIME>. The real question is why so few people had gotten rich from starting companies in <DATE_TIME>. And the answer is that even as the Herald Tribune 's list was being compiled, a wave of consolidation was sweeping through the <NRP> economy. In <DATE_TIME>, financiers like <PERSON> combined thousands of smaller companies into a few hundred giant ones with commanding economies of scale. By <DATE_TIME> World War II, as <PERSON> writes, "the major sectors of the economy were either organized as government-backed cartels or dominated by a few oligopolistic corporations." [ 5 ] In <DATE_TIME>, most of the people who start startups <DATE_TIME> would have gone to work for one of them. You could get rich from starting your own company in <DATE_TIME> and in <DATE_TIME>, but in <DATE_TIME> it was not really a viable option. You couldn't break through the oligopolies to get at the markets. So the prestigious route in <DATE_TIME> was not to start your own company, but to work your way up the corporate ladder at an existing one. [ 6 ] Making everyone a corporate employee decreased economic inequality (and every other kind of variation), but if your model of normal is <DATE_TIME>, you have a very misleading model in that respect. <PERSON> economy turned out to be just a phase, and starting in <DATE_TIME>, it began to break up. Why did it break up? Partly senescence. The big companies that seemed models of scale and efficiency in <DATE_TIME> had by <DATE_TIME> become slack and bloated. By <DATE_TIME> the rigid structure of the economy was full of cosy nests that various groups had built to insulate themselves from market forces. During the <PERSON> administration the federal government realized something was amiss and began, in a process they called "deregulation," to roll back the policies that propped up the oligopolies. But it wasn't just decay from within that broke up J. P. Morgan's economy. There was also pressure from without, in the form of new technology, and particularly microelectronics. The best way to envision what happened is to imagine a pond with a crust of ice on top. Initially the only way from the bottom to the surface is around the edges. But as the ice crust weakens, you start to be able to punch right through the middle. The edges of the pond were pure tech: companies that actually described themselves as being in the electronics or software business. When you used the word "startup" in <DATE_TIME>, that was what you meant. But now startups are punching right through the middle of the ice crust and displacing incumbents like retailers and TV networks and car companies. [ 7 ] But though the breakup of J. P. Morgan's economy created a new world in the technological sense, it was a reversion to the norm in the social sense. If you only look back as far as <DATE_TIME>, it seems like people getting rich by starting their own companies is a recent phenomenon. But if you look back further, you realize it's actually the default. So what we should expect in the future is more of the same. Indeed, we should expect both the number and wealth of founders to grow, because every decade it gets easier to start a startup. Part of the reason it's getting easier to start a startup is social. Society is (re)assimilating the concept. If you start one now, your parents won't freak out the way they would have <DATE_TIME>, and knowledge about how to do it is much more widespread. But the main reason it's easier to start a startup now is that it's cheaper. Technology has driven down the cost of both building products and acquiring customers. The decreasing cost of starting a startup has in turn changed the balance of power between founders and investors. Back when starting a startup meant building a factory, you needed investors' permission to do it at all. But now investors need founders more than founders need investors, and that, combined with the increasing amount of venture capital available, has driven up valuations. [ 8 ] So the decreasing cost of starting a startup increases the number of rich people in two ways: it means that more people start them, and that those who do can raise money on better terms. But there's also a third factor at work: the companies themselves are more valuable, because newly founded companies grow faster than they used to. Technology hasn't just made it cheaper to build and distribute things, but faster too. This trend has been running for a long time. IBM, founded in <DATE_TIME>, took <DATE_TIME> to reach a billion 2020 dollars in revenue. Hewlett-Packard, founded in <DATE_TIME>, took <DATE_TIME>. Microsoft, founded in <DATE_TIME>, took <DATE_TIME>. Now the norm for fast-growing companies is <DATE_TIME>. [ 9 ] Fast growth has a double effect on the value of founders' stock. The value of a company is a function of its revenue and its growth rate. So if a company grows faster, you not only get to a billion dollars in revenue sooner, but the company is more valuable when it reaches that point than it would be if it were growing slower. That's why founders sometimes get so rich so young now. The low initial cost of starting a startup means founders can start young, and the fast growth of companies <DATE_TIME> means that if they succeed they could be surprisingly rich <DATE_TIME>. It's easier now to start and grow a company than it has ever been. That means more people start them, that those who do get better terms from investors, and that the resulting companies become more valuable. Once you understand how these mechanisms work, and that startups were suppressed for most of <DATE_TIME>, you don't have to resort to some vague right turn the country took under <PERSON> to explain why <LOCATION>'s <PERSON> coefficient is increasing. Of course the <PERSON> coefficient is increasing. With more people starting more valuable companies, how could it not be? Notes [ 1 ] Investment firms grew rapidly after a regulatory change by the Labor Department in <DATE_TIME> allowed pension funds to invest in them, but the effects of this growth were not yet visible in the top 100 fortunes in <DATE_TIME>. [ 2 ] <PERSON> deserves mention as an exception. Though really driven and good at making deals, he was also the first to figure out how to use fracking to get natural gas out of shale. [ 3 ] When I say people are starting more companies, I mean the type of company meant to grow very big. There has actually been a decrease in <DATE_TIME> in the overall number of new companies. But the vast majority of companies are small retail and service businesses. So what the statistics about the decreasing number of new businesses mean is that people are starting fewer shoe stores and barber shops. People sometimes get confused when they see a graph labelled "startups" that's going down, because there are two senses of the word "startup": (1) the founding of a company, and (2) a particular type of company designed to grow big fast. The statistics mean startup in sense (1), not sense (2). [ 4 ] <PERSON>, <PERSON>. "Great Fortunes of the Gilded Age." NBER Working Paper 14555, <DATE_TIME>. [ 5 ] <PERSON>, <PERSON>. Land of Promise. HarperCollins, <DATE_TIME>. It's also likely that the high tax rates in <DATE_TIME> deterred people from starting their own companies. Starting one's own company is risky, and when risk isn't rewarded, people opt for safety instead. But it wasn't simply cause and effect. The oligopolies and high tax rates of <DATE_TIME> were all of a piece. Lower taxes are not just a cause of entrepreneurship, but an effect as well: the people getting rich in <DATE_TIME> from real estate and oil exploration lobbied for and got huge tax loopholes that made their effective tax rate much lower, and presumably if it had been more common to grow big companies by building new technology, the people doing that would have lobbied for their own loopholes as well. [ 6 ] That's why the people who did get rich in <DATE_TIME> so often got rich from oil exploration or real estate. Those were the two big areas of the economy that weren't susceptible to consolidation. [ 7 ] The pure tech companies used to be called "high technology" startups. But now that startups can punch through the middle of the ice crust, we don't need a separate name for the edges, and the term "high-tech" has a decidedly retro sound. [ 8 ] Higher valuations mean you either sell less stock to get a given amount of money, or get more money for a given amount of stock. The typical startup does some of each. Obviously you end up richer if you keep more stock, but you should also end up richer if you raise more money, because (a) it should make the company more successful, and (b) you should be able to last longer before the next round, or not even need one. Notice all those shoulds though. In practice a lot of money slips through them. It might seem that the huge rounds raised by startups nowadays contradict the claim that it has become cheaper to start one. But there's no contradiction here; the startups that raise the most are the ones doing it by choice, in order to grow faster, not the ones doing it because they need the money to survive. There's nothing like not needing money to make people offer it to you. You would think, after having been on the side of labor in its fight with capital for <DATE_TIME>, that the far left would be happy that labor has finally prevailed. But none of them seem to be. You can almost hear them saying "No, no, not that way." [ 9 ] IBM was created in <DATE_TIME> by merging three companies, the most important of which was <PERSON> Tabulating Machine Company, founded in <DATE_TIME>. In <DATE_TIME> its revenues were $60 million. Hewlett-Packard's revenues in <DATE_TIME> were $125 million. Microsoft's revenues in <DATE_TIME> were $590 million. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this, and to <PERSON> for growth data.
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Write Simply <DATE_TIME> I try to write using ordinary words and simple sentences. That kind of writing is easier to read, and the easier something is to read, the more deeply readers will engage with it. The less energy they expend on your prose, the more they'll have left for your ideas. And the further they'll read. Most readers' energy tends to flag part way through an article or essay. If the friction of reading is low enough, more keep going till the end. There's an <NRP> dish called saltimbocca , which means "leap into the mouth." My goal when writing might be called saltintesta : the ideas leap into your head and you barely notice the words that got them there. It's too much to hope that writing could ever be pure ideas. You might not even want it to be. But for most writers, most of the time, that's the goal to aim for. The gap between most writing and pure ideas is not filled with poetry. Plus it's more considerate to write simply. When you write in a fancy way to impress people, you're making them do extra work just so you can seem cool. It's like trailing a long train behind you that readers have to carry. And remember, if you're writing in English, that a lot of your readers won't be native <NRP> speakers. Their understanding of ideas may be way ahead of their understanding of English. So you can't assume that writing about a difficult topic means you can use difficult words. Of course, fancy writing doesn't just conceal ideas. It can also conceal the lack of them. That's why some people write that way, to conceal the fact that they have nothing to say. Whereas writing simply keeps you honest. If you say nothing simply, it will be obvious to everyone, including you. Simple writing also lasts better. People reading your stuff in the future will be in much the same position as people from other countries reading it <DATE_TIME>. The culture and the language will have changed. It's not vain to care about that, any more than it's vain for a woodworker to build a chair to last. Indeed, lasting is not merely an accidental quality of chairs, or writing. It's a sign you did a good job. But although these are all real advantages of writing simply, none of them are why I do it. The main reason I write simply is that it offends me not to. When I write a sentence that seems too complicated, or that uses unnecessarily intellectual words, it doesn't seem fancy to me. It seems clumsy. There are of course times when you want to use a complicated sentence or fancy word for effect. But you should never do it by accident. The other reason my writing ends up being simple is the way I do it. I write the first draft fast, then spend days editing it, trying to get everything just right. Much of this editing is cutting, and that makes simple writing even simpler.
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Donate Unrestricted <DATE_TIME> The secret curse of the nonprofit world is restricted donations. If you haven't been involved with nonprofits, you may never have heard this phrase before. But if you have been, it probably made you wince. Restricted donations mean donations where the donor limits what can be done with the money. This is common with big donations, perhaps the default. And yet it's usually a bad idea. Usually the way the donor wants the money spent is not the way the nonprofit would have chosen. Otherwise there would have been no need to restrict the donation. But who has a better understanding of where money needs to be spent, the nonprofit or the donor? If a nonprofit doesn't understand better than its donors where money needs to be spent, then it's incompetent and you shouldn't be donating to it at all. Which means a restricted donation is inherently suboptimal. It's either a donation to a bad nonprofit, or a donation for the wrong things. There are a couple exceptions to this principle. One is when the nonprofit is an umbrella organization. It's reasonable to make a restricted donation to a university, for example, because a university is only nominally a single nonprofit. Another exception is when the donor actually does know as much as the nonprofit about where money needs to be spent. The Gates Foundation, for example, has specific goals and often makes restricted donations to individual nonprofits to accomplish them. But unless you're a domain expert yourself or donating to an umbrella organization, your donation would do more good if it were unrestricted. If restricted donations do less good than unrestricted ones, why do donors so often make them? Partly because doing good isn't donors' only motive. They often have other motives as well - to make a mark, or to generate good publicity [ 1 ] , or to comply with regulations or corporate policies. Many donors may simply never have considered the distinction between restricted and unrestricted donations. They may believe that donating money for some specific purpose is just how donation works. And to be fair, nonprofits don't try very hard to discourage such illusions. They can't afford to. People running nonprofits are almost always anxious about money. They can't afford to talk back to big donors. You can't expect candor in a relationship so asymmetric. So I'll tell you what nonprofits wish they could tell you. If you want to donate to a nonprofit, donate unrestricted. If you trust them to spend your money, trust them to decide how. Note [ 1 ] Unfortunately restricted donations tend to generate more publicity than unrestricted ones. "X donates money to build a school in <LOCATION>" is not only more interesting than "X donates money to Y nonprofit to spend as Y chooses," but also focuses more attention on X. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Billionaires Build <DATE_TIME> As I was deciding what to write about next, I was surprised to find that two separate essays I'd been planning to write were actually the same. The first is about how to ace your Y Combinator interview. There has been so much nonsense written about this topic that I've been meaning for <DATE_TIME> to write something telling founders the truth. The second is about something politicians sometimes say that the only way to become a billionaire is by exploiting people and why this is mistaken. Keep reading, and you'll learn both simultaneously. I know the politicians are mistaken because it was my job to predict which people will become billionaires. I think I can truthfully say that I know as much about how to do this as anyone. If the key to becoming a billionaire the defining feature of billionaires was to exploit people, then I, as a professional billionaire scout, would surely realize this and look for people who would be good at it, just as an NFL scout looks for speed in wide receivers. But aptitude for exploiting people is not what Y Combinator looks for at all. In fact, it's the opposite of what they look for. I'll tell you what they do look for, by explaining how to convince Y Combinator to fund you, and you can see for yourself. What YC looks for, above all, is founders who understand some group of users and can make what they want. This is so important that it's YC's motto: "Make something people want." A big company can to some extent force unsuitable products on unwilling customers, but a startup doesn't have the power to do that. A startup must sing for its supper, by making things that genuinely delight its customers. Otherwise it will never get off the ground. Here's where things get difficult, both for you as a founder and for the YC partners trying to decide whether to fund you. In a market economy, it's hard to make something people want that they don't already have. That's the great thing about market economies. If other people both knew about this need and were able to satisfy it, they already would be, and there would be no room for your startup. Which means the conversation during your YC interview will have to be about something new: either a new need, or a new way to satisfy one. And not just new, but uncertain. If it were certain that the need existed and that you could satisfy it, that certainty would be reflected in large and rapidly growing revenues, and you wouldn't be seeking seed funding. So the YC partners have to guess both whether you've discovered a real need, and whether you'll be able to satisfy it. That's what they are, at least in this part of their job: professional guessers. They have 1001 heuristics for doing this, and I'm not going to tell you all of them, but I'm happy to tell you the most important ones, because these can't be faked; the only way to "hack" them would be to do what you should be doing anyway as a founder. The first thing the partners will try to figure out, usually, is whether what you're making will ever be something a lot of people want. It doesn't have to be something a lot of people want now. The product and the market will both evolve, and will influence each other's evolution. But in the end there has to be something with a huge market. That's what the partners will be trying to figure out: is there a path to a huge market? [ 1 ] Sometimes it's obvious there will be a huge market. If Boom manages to ship an airliner at all, international airlines will have to buy it. But usually it's not obvious. Usually the path to a huge market is by growing a small market. This idea is important enough that it's worth coining a phrase for, so let's call one of these small but growable markets a "larval market." The perfect example of a larval market might be Apple's market when they were founded in <DATE_TIME>. In <DATE_TIME>, not many people wanted their own computer. But more and more started to want one, till now every <DATE_TIME> on the planet wants a computer (but calls it a "phone"). The ideal combination is the group of founders who are "living in the future" in the sense of being at the leading edge of some kind of change, and who are building something they themselves want. Most super-successful startups are of this type. <PERSON> wanted a computer. <PERSON> wanted to engage online with his college friends. <PERSON> and <PERSON> wanted to find things on the web. All these founders were building things they and their peers wanted, and the fact that they were at the leading edge of change meant that more people would want these things in the future. But although the ideal larval market is oneself and one's peers, that's not the only kind. A larval market might also be regional, for example. You build something to serve one location, and then expand to others. The crucial feature of the initial market is that it exist. That may seem like an obvious point, but the lack of it is the biggest flaw in most startup ideas. There have to be some people who want what you're building right now, and want it so urgently that they're willing to use it, bugs and all, even though you're a small company they've never heard of. There don't have to be many, but there have to be some. As long as you have some users, there are straightforward ways to get more: build new features they want, seek out more people like them, get them to refer you to their friends, and so on. But these techniques all require some initial seed group of users. So this is one thing the YC partners will almost certainly dig into during your interview. Who are your first users going to be, and how do you know they want this? If I had to decide whether to fund startups based on a single question, it would be "How do you know people want this?" The most convincing answer is "Because we and our friends want it." It's even better when this is followed by the news that you've already built a prototype, and even though it's very crude, your friends are using it, and it's spreading by word of mouth. If you can say that and you're not lying, the partners will switch from default no to default yes. Meaning you're in unless there's some other disqualifying flaw. That is a hard standard to meet, though. Airbnb didn't meet it. They had the first part. They had made something they themselves wanted. But it wasn't spreading. So don't feel bad if you don't hit this gold standard of convincingness. If Airbnb didn't hit it, it must be too high. In practice, the YC partners will be satisfied if they feel that you have a deep understanding of your users' needs. And the Airbnbs did have that. They were able to tell us all about what motivated hosts and guests. They knew from first-hand experience, because they'd been the first hosts. We couldn't ask them a question they didn't know the answer to. We ourselves were not very excited about the idea as users, but we knew this didn't prove anything, because there were lots of successful startups we hadn't been excited about as users. We were able to say to ourselves "They seem to know what they're talking about. Maybe they're onto something. It's not growing yet, but maybe they can figure out how to make it grow during YC." Which they did, <DATE_TIME> into the batch. The best thing you can do in a YC interview is to teach the partners about your users. So if you want to prepare for your interview, one of the best ways to do it is to go talk to your users and find out exactly what they're thinking. Which is what you should be doing anyway. This may sound strangely credulous, but the YC partners want to rely on the founders to tell them about the market. Think about how VCs typically judge the potential market for an idea. They're not ordinarily domain experts themselves, so they forward the idea to someone who is, and ask for their opinion. YC doesn't have time to do this, but if the YC partners can convince themselves that the founders both (a) know what they're talking about and (b) aren't lying, they don't need outside domain experts. They can use the founders themselves as domain experts when evaluating their own idea. This is why YC interviews aren't pitches. To give as many founders as possible a chance to get funded, we made interviews as short as we could: <DATE_TIME>. That is not enough time for the partners to figure out, through the indirect evidence in a pitch, whether you know what you're talking about and aren't lying. They need to dig in and ask you questions. There's not enough time for sequential access. They need random access. [ 2 ] The worst advice I ever heard about how to succeed in a YC interview is that you should take control of the interview and make sure to deliver the message you want to. In other words, turn the interview into a pitch. ⟨elaborate expletive⟩. It is so annoying when people try to do that. You ask them a question, and instead of answering it, they deliver some obviously prefabricated blob of pitch. It eats up <DATE_TIME> really fast. There is no one who can give you accurate advice about what to do in a YC interview except a current or former YC partner. People who've merely been interviewed, even successfully, have no idea of this, but interviews take all sorts of different forms depending on what the partners want to know about most. Sometimes they're all about the founders, other times they're all about the idea. Sometimes some very narrow aspect of the idea. Founders sometimes walk away from interviews complaining that they didn't get to explain their idea completely. True, but they explained enough. Since a YC interview consists of questions, the way to do it well is to answer them well. Part of that is answering them candidly. The partners don't expect you to know everything. But if you don't know the answer to a question, don't try to bullshit your way out of it. The partners, like most experienced investors, are professional bullshit detectors, and you are (hopefully) an amateur bullshitter. And if you try to bullshit them and fail, they may not even tell you that you failed. So it's better to be honest than to try to sell them. If you don't know the answer to a question, say you don't, and tell them how you'd go about finding it, or tell them the answer to some related question. If you're asked, for example, what could go wrong, the worst possible answer is "nothing." Instead of convincing them that your idea is bullet-proof, this will convince them that you're a fool or a liar. Far better to go into gruesome detail. That's what experts do when you ask what could go wrong. The partners know that your idea is risky. That's what a good bet looks like at this stage: a tiny probability of a huge outcome. Ditto if they ask about competitors. Competitors are rarely what kills startups. Poor execution does. But you should know who your competitors are, and tell the YC partners candidly what your relative strengths and weaknesses are. Because the YC partners know that competitors don't kill startups, they won't hold competitors against you too much. They will, however, hold it against you if you seem either to be unaware of competitors, or to be minimizing the threat they pose. They may not be sure whether you're clueless or lying, but they don't need to be. The partners don't expect your idea to be perfect. This is seed investing. At this stage, all they can expect are promising hypotheses. But they do expect you to be thoughtful and honest. So if trying to make your idea seem perfect causes you to come off as glib or clueless, you've sacrificed something you needed for something you didn't. If the partners are sufficiently convinced that there's a path to a big market, the next question is whether you'll be able to find it. That in turn depends on three things: the general qualities of the founders, their specific expertise in this domain, and the relationship between them. How determined are the founders? Are they good at building things? Are they resilient enough to keep going when things go wrong? How strong is their friendship? Though the Airbnbs only did ok in the idea department, they did spectacularly well in this department. The story of how they'd funded themselves by making Obama- and <PERSON>-themed breakfast cereal was the single most important factor in our decision to fund them. They didn't realize it at the time, but what seemed to them an irrelevant story was in fact fabulously good evidence of their qualities as founders. It showed they were resourceful and determined, and could work together. It wasn't just the cereal story that showed that, though. The whole interview showed that they cared. They weren't doing this just for the money, or because startups were cool. The reason they were working so hard on this company was because it was their project. They had discovered an interesting new idea, and they just couldn't let it go. Mundane as it sounds, that's the most powerful motivator of all, not just in startups, but in most ambitious undertakings: to be genuinely interested in what you're building. This is what really drives billionaires, or at least the ones who become billionaires from starting companies. The company is their project. One thing few people realize about billionaires is that all of them could have stopped sooner. They could have gotten acquired, or found someone else to run the company. Many founders do. The ones who become really rich are the ones who keep working. And what makes them keep working is not just money. What keeps them working is the same thing that keeps anyone else working when they could stop if they wanted to: that there's nothing else they'd rather do. That, not exploiting people, is the defining quality of people who become billionaires from starting companies. So that's what YC looks for in founders: authenticity. People's motives for starting startups are usually mixed. They're usually doing it from some combination of the desire to make money, the desire to seem cool, genuine interest in the problem, and unwillingness to work for someone else. The last two are more powerful motivators than the first two. It's ok for founders to want to make money or to seem cool. Most do. But if the founders seem like they're doing it just to make money or just to seem cool, they're not likely to succeed on a big scale. The founders who are doing it for the money will take the first sufficiently large acquisition offer, and the ones who are doing it to seem cool will rapidly discover that there are much less painful ways of seeming cool. [ 3 ] Y Combinator certainly sees founders whose <LOCATION> is to exploit people. YC is a magnet for them, because they want the YC brand. But when the YC partners detect someone like that, they reject them. If bad people made good founders, the YC partners would face a moral dilemma. Fortunately they don't, because bad people make bad founders. This exploitative type of founder is not going to succeed on a large scale, and in fact probably won't even succeed on a small one, because they're always going to be taking shortcuts. They see YC itself as a shortcut. Their exploitation usually begins with their own cofounders, which is disastrous, since the cofounders' relationship is the foundation of the company. Then it moves on to the users, which is also disastrous, because the sort of early adopters a successful startup wants as its initial users are the hardest to fool. The best this kind of founder can hope for is to keep the edifice of deception tottering along until some acquirer can be tricked into buying it. But that kind of acquisition is never very big. [ 4 ] If professional billionaire scouts know that exploiting people is not the skill to look for, why do some politicians think this is the defining quality of billionaires? I think they start from the feeling that it's wrong that one person could have so much more money than another. It's understandable where that feeling comes from. It's in our DNA, and even in the DNA of other species. If they limited themselves to saying that it made them feel bad when one person had so much more money than other people, who would disagree? It makes me feel bad too, and I think people who make a lot of money have a moral obligation to use it for the common good. The mistake they make is to jump from feeling bad that some people are much richer than others to the conclusion that there's no legitimate way to make a very large amount of money. Now we're getting into statements that are not only falsifiable, but false. There are certainly some people who become rich by doing bad things. But there are also plenty of people who behave badly and don't make that much from it. There is no correlation in fact, probably an inverse correlation between how badly you behave and how much money you make. The greatest danger of this nonsense may not even be that it sends policy astray, but that it misleads ambitious people. Can you imagine a better way to destroy social mobility than by telling poor kids that the way to get rich is by exploiting people, while the rich kids know, from having watched the preceding generation do it, how it's really done? I'll tell you how it's really done, so you can at least tell your own kids the truth. It's all about users. The most reliable way to become a billionaire is to start a company that grows fast , and the way to grow fast is to make what users want. Newly started startups have no choice but to delight users, or they'll never even get rolling. But this never stops being the lodestar, and bigger companies take their eye off it at their peril. Stop delighting users, and eventually someone else will. Users are what the partners want to know about in YC interviews, and what I want to know about when I talk to founders that we funded <DATE_TIME> and who are billionaires now. What do users want? What new things could you build for them? Founders who've become billionaires are always eager to talk about that topic. That's how they became billionaires. Notes [ 1 ] The YC partners have so much practice doing this that they sometimes see paths that the founders themselves haven't seen yet. The partners don't try to seem skeptical, as buyers in transactions often do to increase their leverage. Although the founders feel their job is to convince the partners of the potential of their idea, these roles are not infrequently reversed, and the founders leave the interview feeling their idea has more potential than they realized. [ 2 ] In practice, <DATE_TIME> would be enough. You rarely change your mind at <DATE_TIME>. But <DATE_TIME> is socially convenient. [ 3 ] I myself took the first sufficiently large acquisition offer in my first startup, so I don't blame founders for doing this. There's nothing wrong with starting a startup to make money. You need to make money somehow, and for some people startups are the most efficient way to do it. I'm just saying that these are not the startups that get really big. [ 4 ] Not <DATE_TIME>, anyway. There were some big ones during the Internet Bubble, and indeed some big IPOs. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and Harj Taggar for reading drafts of this.
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The Airbnbs <DATE_TIME> To celebrate Airbnb's IPO and to help future founders, I thought it might be useful to explain what was special about Airbnb. What was special about the <PERSON> was how earnest they were. They did nothing half-way, and we could sense this even in the interview. Sometimes after we interviewed a startup we'd be uncertain what to do, and have to talk it over. Other times we'd just look at one another and smile. The Airbnbs' interview was that kind. We didn't even like the idea that much. Nor did users, at that stage; they had no growth. But the founders seemed so full of energy that it was impossible not to like them. That first impression was not misleading. During the batch our nickname for <PERSON> was The Tasmanian Devil, because like the cartoon character he seemed a tornado of energy. All three of them were like that. No one ever worked harder during YC than the <PERSON> did. When you talked to the Airbnbs, they took notes. If you suggested an idea to them in office <DATE_TIME>, the next time you talked to them they'd not only have implemented it, but also implemented two new ideas they had in the process. "They probably have the best attitude of any startup we've funded" I wrote to <PERSON> during the batch. They're still like that. <PERSON> and I had dinner with <PERSON> in <DATE_TIME>, just the three of us. By this point the company is <DATE_TIME>. He took a page of notes about ideas for new things Airbnb could do. What we didn't realize when we first met <PERSON> and <PERSON> and <PERSON> was that Airbnb was on its last legs. After working on the company for <DATE_TIME> and getting no growth, they'd agreed to give it one last shot. They'd try this Y Combinator thing, and if the company still didn't take off, they'd give up. Any normal person would have given up already. They'd been funding the company with credit cards. They had a binder full of credit cards they'd maxed out. Investors didn't think much of the idea. One investor they met in a cafe walked out in the middle of meeting with them. They thought he was going to the bathroom, but he never came back. "He didn't even finish his smoothie," <PERSON> said. And now, in <DATE_TIME>, it was the worst recession in <DATE_TIME>. The stock market was in free fall and wouldn't hit bottom for <DATE_TIME>. Why hadn't they given up? This is a useful question to ask. People, like matter, reveal their nature under extreme conditions. One thing that's clear is that they weren't doing this just for the money. As a money-making scheme, this was pretty lousy: a <DATE_TIME>'s work and all they had to show for it was a binder full of maxed-out credit cards. So why were they still working on this startup? Because of the experience they'd had as the first hosts. When they first tried renting out airbeds on their floor during a design convention, all they were hoping for was to make enough money to pay their rent <DATE_TIME>. But something surprising happened: they enjoyed having those first three guests staying with them. And the guests enjoyed it too. Both they and the guests had done it because they were in a sense forced to, and yet they'd all had a great experience. Clearly there was something new here: for hosts, a new way to make money that had literally been right under their noses, and for guests, a new way to travel that was in many ways better than hotels. That experience was why the Airbnbs didn't give up. They knew they'd discovered something. They'd seen a glimpse of the future, and they couldn't let it go. They knew that once people tried staying in what is now called "an airbnb," they would also realize that this was the future. But only if they tried it, and they weren't. That was the problem during Y Combinator: to get growth started. Airbnb's goal during YC was to reach what we call ramen profitability , which means making enough money that the company can pay the founders' living expenses, if they live on ramen noodles. Ramen profitability is not, obviously, the end goal of any startup, but it's the most important threshold on the way, because this is the point where you're airborne. This is the point where you no longer need investors' permission to continue existing. For the Airbnbs, ramen profitability was $4000 a month: $3500 for rent, and $500 for food. They taped this goal to the mirror in the bathroom of their apartment. The way to get growth started in something like Airbnb is to focus on the hottest subset of the market. If you can get growth started there, it will spread to the rest. When I asked the <PERSON> where there was most demand, they knew from searches: <LOCATION>. So they focused on <LOCATION>. They went there in person to visit their hosts and help them make their listings more attractive. A big part of that was better pictures. So <PERSON> and <PERSON> rented a professional camera and took pictures of the hosts' places themselves. This didn't just make the listings better. It also taught them about their hosts. When they came back from their first trip to <LOCATION>, I asked what they'd noticed about hosts that surprised them, and they said the biggest surprise was how many of the hosts were in the same position they'd been in: they needed this money to pay their rent. This was, remember, the worst recession in <DATE_TIME>, and it had hit <LOCATION> first. It definitely added to the Airbnbs' sense of mission to feel that people needed them. In <DATE_TIME>, <DATE_TIME> into Y Combinator, their efforts started to show results, and their numbers crept upward. But it was hard to say for sure whether it was growth or just random fluctuation. By <DATE_TIME> it was clear that it was real growth. They made $460 in fees in <DATE_TIME>, $897 in the second, and $1428 in the third. That was it: they were airborne. <PERSON> sent me an email on <DATE_TIME> announcing that they were ramen profitable and giving <DATE_TIME> numbers. "I assume you know what you've now set yourself up for <DATE_TIME>," I responded. <PERSON>'s reply was seven words: "We are not going to slow down."
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How to Think for Yourself <DATE_TIME> There are some kinds of work that you can't do well without thinking differently from your peers. To be a successful scientist, for example, it's not enough just to be correct. Your ideas have to be both correct and novel. You can't publish papers saying things other people already know. You need to say things no one else has realized yet. The same is true for investors. It's not enough for a public market investor to predict correctly how a company will do. If a lot of other people make the same prediction, the stock price will already reflect it, and there's no room to make money. The only valuable insights are the ones most other investors don't share. You see this pattern with startup founders too. You don't want to start a startup to do something that everyone agrees is a good idea, or there will already be other companies doing it. You have to do something that sounds to most other people like a bad idea, but that you know isn't like writing software for a tiny computer used by a few thousand hobbyists, or starting a site to let people rent airbeds on strangers' floors. Ditto for essayists. An essay that told people things they already knew would be boring. You have to tell them something new . But this pattern isn't universal. In fact, it doesn't hold for most kinds of work. In most kinds of work to be an administrator, for example all you need is <DATE_TIME>. All you need is to be right. It's not essential that everyone else be wrong. There's room for a little novelty in most kinds of work, but in practice there's a fairly sharp distinction between the kinds of work where it's essential to be independent-minded, and the kinds where it's not. I wish someone had told me about this distinction when I was a kid, because it's one of the most important things to think about when you're deciding what kind of work you want to do. Do you want to do the kind of work where you can only win by thinking differently from everyone else? I suspect most people's unconscious mind will answer that question before their conscious mind has a chance to. I know mine does. Independent-mindedness seems to be more a matter of nature than nurture. Which means if you pick the wrong type of work, you're going to be unhappy. If you're naturally independent-minded, you're going to find it frustrating to be a middle manager. And if you're naturally conventional-minded, you're going to be sailing into a headwind if you try to do original research. One difficulty here, though, is that people are often mistaken about where they fall on the spectrum from conventional- to independent-minded. Conventional-minded people don't like to think of themselves as conventional-minded. And in any case, it genuinely feels to them as if they make up their own minds about everything. It's just a coincidence that their beliefs are identical to their peers'. And the independent-minded, meanwhile, are often unaware how different their ideas are from conventional ones, at least till they state them publicly. [ 1 ] By the time they reach adulthood, most people know roughly how smart they are (in the narrow sense of ability to solve pre-set problems), because they're constantly being tested and ranked according to it. But schools generally ignore independent-mindedness, except to the extent they try to suppress it. So we don't get anything like the same kind of feedback about how independent-minded we are. There may even be a phenomenon like <PERSON> at work, where the most conventional-minded people are confident that they're independent-minded, while the genuinely independent-minded worry they might not be independent-minded enough. ___________ Can you make yourself more independent-minded? I think so. This quality may be largely inborn, but there seem to be ways to magnify it, or at least not to suppress it. One of the most effective techniques is one practiced unintentionally by most nerds: simply to be less aware what conventional beliefs are. It's hard to be a conformist if you don't know what you're supposed to conform to. Though again, it may be that such people already are independent-minded. A conventional-minded person would probably feel anxious not knowing what other people thought, and make more effort to find out. It matters a lot who you surround yourself with. If you're surrounded by conventional-minded people, it will constrain which ideas you can express, and that in turn will constrain which ideas you have. But if you surround yourself with independent-minded people, you'll have the opposite experience: hearing other people say surprising things will encourage you to, and to think of more. Because the independent-minded find it uncomfortable to be surrounded by conventional-minded people, they tend to self-segregate once they have a chance to. The problem with high school is that they haven't yet had a chance to. Plus high school tends to be an inward-looking little world whose inhabitants lack confidence, both of which magnify the forces of conformism. So high school is often a bad time for the independent-minded. But there is some advantage even here: it teaches you what to avoid. If you later find yourself in a situation that makes you think "this is like high school," you know you should get out. [ 2 ] Another place where the independent- and conventional-minded are thrown together is in successful startups. The founders and early employees are almost always independent-minded; otherwise the startup wouldn't be successful. But conventional-minded people greatly outnumber independent-minded ones, so as the company grows, the original spirit of independent-mindedness is inevitably diluted. This causes all kinds of problems besides the obvious one that the company starts to suck. One of the strangest is that the founders find themselves able to speak more freely with founders of other companies than with their own employees. [ 3 ] Fortunately you don't have to spend all your time with independent-minded people. It's enough to have one or two you can talk to regularly. And once you find them, they're usually as eager to talk as you are; they need you too. Although universities no longer have the kind of monopoly they used to have on education, good universities are still an excellent way to meet independent-minded people. Most students will still be conventional-minded, but you'll at least find clumps of independent-minded ones, rather than the near zero you may have found in high school. It also works to go in the other direction: as well as cultivating a small collection of independent-minded friends, to try to meet as many different types of people as you can. It will decrease the influence of your immediate peers if you have several other groups of peers. Plus if you're part of several different worlds, you can often import ideas from one to another. But by different types of people, I don't mean demographically different. For this technique to work, they have to think differently. So while it's an excellent idea to go and visit other countries, you can probably find people who think differently right around the corner. When I meet someone who knows a lot about something unusual (which includes practically everyone, if you dig deep enough), I try to learn what they know that other people don't. There are almost always surprises here. It's a good way to make conversation when you meet strangers, but I don't do it to make conversation. I really want to know. You can expand the source of influences in time as well as space, by reading history. When I read history I do it not just to learn what happened, but to try to get inside the heads of people who lived in the past. How did things look to them? This is hard to do, but worth the effort for the same reason it's worth travelling far to triangulate a point. You can also take more explicit measures to prevent yourself from automatically adopting conventional opinions. The most general is to cultivate an attitude of skepticism. When you hear someone say something, stop and ask yourself "Is that true?" Don't say it out loud. I'm not suggesting that you impose on everyone who talks to you the burden of proving what they say, but rather that you take upon yourself the burden of evaluating what they say. Treat it as a puzzle. You know that some accepted ideas will later turn out to be wrong. See if you can guess which. The end goal is not to find flaws in the things you're told, but to find the new ideas that had been concealed by the broken ones. So this game should be an exciting quest for novelty, not a boring protocol for intellectual hygiene. And you'll be surprised, when you start asking "Is this true?", how often the answer is not an immediate yes. If you have any imagination, you're more likely to have too many leads to follow than too few. More generally your goal should be not to let anything into your head unexamined, and things don't always enter your head in the form of statements. Some of the most powerful influences are implicit. How do you even notice these? By standing back and watching how other people get their ideas. When you stand back at a sufficient distance, you can see ideas spreading through groups of people like waves. The most obvious are in fashion: you notice a few people wearing a certain kind of shirt, and then more and more, until half the people around you are wearing the same shirt. You may not care much what you wear, but there are intellectual fashions too, and you definitely don't want to participate in those. Not just because you want sovereignty over your own thoughts, but because unfashionable ideas are disproportionately likely to lead somewhere interesting. The best place to find undiscovered ideas is where no one else is looking. [ 4 ] ___________ To go beyond this general advice, we need to look at the internal structure of independent-mindedness at the individual muscles we need to exercise, as it were. It seems to me that it has three components: fastidiousness about truth, resistance to being told what to think, and curiosity. Fastidiousness about truth means more than just not believing things that are false. It means being careful about degree of belief. For most people, degree of belief rushes unexamined toward the extremes: the unlikely becomes impossible, and the probable becomes certain. [ 5 ] To the independent-minded, this seems unpardonably sloppy. They're willing to have anything in their heads, from highly speculative hypotheses to (apparent) tautologies, but on subjects they care about, everything has to be labelled with a carefully considered degree of belief. [ 6 ] The independent-minded thus have a horror of ideologies, which require one to accept a whole collection of beliefs at once, and to treat them as articles of faith. To an independent-minded person that would seem revolting, just as it would seem to someone fastidious about food to take a bite of a submarine sandwich filled with a large variety of ingredients of indeterminate age and provenance. Without this fastidiousness about truth, you can't be truly independent-minded. It's not enough just to have resistance to being told what to think. Those kind of people reject conventional ideas only to replace them with the most random conspiracy theories. And since these conspiracy theories have often been manufactured to capture them, they end up being less independent-minded than ordinary people, because they're subject to a much more exacting master than mere convention. [ 7 ] Can you increase your fastidiousness about truth? I would think so. In my experience, merely thinking about something you're fastidious about causes that fastidiousness to grow. If so, this is one of those rare virtues we can have more of merely by wanting it. And if it's like other forms of fastidiousness, it should also be possible to encourage in children. I certainly got a strong dose of it from my father. [ 8 ] The second component of independent-mindedness, resistance to being told what to think, is the most visible of the three. But even this is often misunderstood. The big mistake people make about it is to think of it as a merely negative quality. The language we use reinforces that idea. You're un conventional. You don't care what other people think. But it's not just a kind of immunity. In the most independent-minded people, the desire not to be told what to think is a positive force. It's not mere skepticism, but an active delight in ideas that subvert the conventional wisdom, the more counterintuitive the better. Some of the most novel ideas seemed at the time almost like practical jokes. Think how often your reaction to a novel idea is to laugh. I don't think it's because novel ideas are funny per se, but because novelty and humor share a certain kind of surprisingness. But while not identical, the two are close enough that there is a definite correlation between having a sense of humor and being independent-minded just as there is between being humorless and being conventional-minded. [ 9 ] I don't think we can significantly increase our resistance to being told what to think. It seems the most innate of the three components of independent-mindedness; people who have this quality as adults usually showed all too visible signs of it as children. But if we can't increase our resistance to being told what to think, we can at least shore it up, by surrounding ourselves with other independent-minded people. The third component of independent-mindedness, curiosity, may be the most interesting. To the extent that we can give a brief answer to the question of where novel ideas come from, it's curiosity. That's what people are usually feeling before having them. In my experience, independent-mindedness and curiosity predict one another perfectly. Everyone I know who's independent-minded is deeply curious, and everyone I know who's conventional-minded isn't. Except, curiously, children. All small children are curious. Perhaps the reason is that even the conventional-minded have to be curious in the beginning, in order to learn what the conventions are. Whereas the independent-minded are the gluttons of curiosity, who keep eating even after they're full. [ 10 ] The three components of independent-mindedness work in concert: fastidiousness about truth and resistance to being told what to think leave space in your brain, and curiosity finds new ideas to fill it. Interestingly, the three components can substitute for one another in much the same way muscles can. If you're sufficiently fastidious about truth, you don't need to be as resistant to being told what to think, because fastidiousness alone will create sufficient gaps in your knowledge. And either one can compensate for curiosity, because if you create enough space in your brain, your discomfort at the resulting vacuum will add force to your curiosity. Or curiosity can compensate for them: if you're sufficiently curious, you don't need to clear space in your brain, because the new ideas you discover will push out the conventional ones you acquired by default. Because the components of independent-mindedness are so interchangeable, you can have them to varying degrees and still get the same result. So there is not just a single model of independent-mindedness. Some independent-minded people are openly subversive, and others are quietly curious. They all know the secret handshake though. Is there a way to cultivate curiosity? To start with, you want to avoid situations that suppress it. How much does the work you're currently doing engage your curiosity? If the answer is "not much," maybe you should change something. The most important active step you can take to cultivate your curiosity is probably to seek out the topics that engage it. Few adults are equally curious about everything, and it doesn't seem as if you can choose which topics interest you. So it's up to you to find them. Or invent them, if necessary. Another way to increase your curiosity is to indulge it, by investigating things you're interested in. Curiosity is unlike most other appetites in this respect: indulging it tends to increase rather than to sate it. Questions lead to more questions. Curiosity seems to be more individual than fastidiousness about truth or resistance to being told what to think. To the degree people have the latter two, they're usually pretty general, whereas different people can be curious about very different things. So perhaps curiosity is the compass here. Perhaps, if your goal is to discover novel ideas, your motto should not be "do what you love" so much as "do what you're curious about." Notes [ 1 ] One convenient consequence of the fact that no one identifies as conventional-minded is that you can say what you like about conventional-minded people without getting in too much trouble. When I wrote "The Four Quadrants of Conformism" I expected a firestorm of rage from the aggressively conventional-minded, but in fact it was quite muted. They sensed that there was something about the essay that they disliked intensely, but they had a hard time finding a specific passage to pin it on. [ 2 ] When I ask myself what in my life is like high school, the answer is Twitter. It's not just full of conventional-minded people, as anything its size will inevitably be, but subject to violent storms of conventional-mindedness that remind me of descriptions of <LOCATION>. But while it probably is a net loss to spend time there, it has at least made me think more about the distinction between independent- and conventional-mindedness, which I probably wouldn't have done otherwise. [ 3 ] The decrease in independent-mindedness in growing startups is still an open problem, but there may be solutions. Founders can delay the problem by making a conscious effort only to hire independent-minded people. Which of course also has the ancillary benefit that they have better ideas. Another possible solution is to create policies that somehow disrupt the force of conformism, much as control rods slow chain reactions, so that the conventional-minded aren't as dangerous. The physical separation of Lockheed's Skunk Works may have had this as a side benefit. Recent examples suggest employee forums like Slack may not be an unmitigated good. The most radical solution would be to grow revenues without growing the company. You think hiring that junior PR person will be cheap, compared to a programmer, but what will be the effect on the average level of independent-mindedness in your company? (The growth in staff relative to faculty seems to have had a similar effect on universities.) Perhaps the rule about outsourcing work that's not your "core competency" should be augmented by one about outsourcing work done by people who'd ruin your culture as employees. Some investment firms already seem to be able to grow revenues without growing the number of employees. Automation plus the ever increasing articulation of the "tech stack" suggest this may one day be possible for product companies. [ 4 ] There are intellectual fashions in every field, but their influence varies. One of the reasons politics, for example, tends to be boring is that it's so extremely subject to them. The threshold for having opinions about politics is much lower than the one for having opinions about set theory. So while there are some ideas in politics, in practice they tend to be swamped by waves of intellectual fashion. [ 5 ] The conventional-minded are often fooled by the strength of their opinions into believing that they're independent-minded. But strong convictions are not a sign of independent-mindedness. Rather the opposite. [ 6 ] Fastidiousness about truth doesn't imply that an independent-minded person won't be dishonest, but that he won't be deluded. It's sort of like the definition of a gentleman as someone who is never unintentionally rude. [ 7 ] You see this especially among political extremists. They think themselves nonconformists, but actually they're niche conformists. Their opinions may be different from the average person's, but they are often more influenced by their peers' opinions than the average person's are. [ 8 ] If we broaden the concept of fastidiousness about truth so that it excludes pandering, bogusness, and pomposity as well as falsehood in the strict sense, our model of independent-mindedness can expand further into the arts. [ 9 ] This correlation is far from perfect, though. Gdel and <PERSON> don't seem to have been very strong in the humor department. But someone who is both "neurotypical" and humorless is very likely to be conventional-minded. [ 10 ] Exception: gossip. Almost everyone is curious about gossip. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, Harj Taggar, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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Early Work <DATE_TIME> One of the biggest things holding people back from doing great work is the fear of making something lame. And this fear is not an irrational one. Many great projects go through a stage early on where they don't seem very impressive, even to their creators. You have to push through this stage to reach the great work that lies beyond. But many people don't. Most people don't even reach the stage of making something they're embarrassed by, let alone continue past it. They're too frightened even to start. Imagine if we could turn off the fear of making something lame. Imagine how much more we'd do. Is there any hope of turning it off? I think so. I think the habits at work here are not very deeply rooted. Making new things is itself a new thing for us as a species. It has always happened, but till <DATE_TIME> it happened so slowly as to be invisible to individual humans. And since we didn't need customs for dealing with new ideas, we didn't develop any. We just don't have enough experience with early versions of ambitious projects to know how to respond to them. We judge them as we would judge more finished work, or less ambitious projects. We don't realize they're a special case. Or at least, most of us don't. One reason I'm confident we can do better is that it's already starting to happen. There are already a few places that are living in the future in this respect. <LOCATION> is one of them: an unknown person working on a strange-sounding idea won't automatically be dismissed the way they would back home. In <LOCATION>, people have learned how dangerous that is. The right way to deal with new ideas is to treat them as a challenge to your imagination not just to have lower standards, but to switch polarity entirely, from listing the reasons an idea won't work to trying to think of ways it could. That's what I do when I meet people with new ideas. I've become quite good at it, but I've had a lot of practice. Being a partner at Y Combinator means being practically immersed in strange-sounding ideas proposed by unknown people. <DATE_TIME> you get thousands of new ones thrown at you and have to sort through them, knowing that in a world with a power-law distribution of outcomes, it will be painfully obvious if you miss the needle in this haystack. Optimism becomes urgent. But I'm hopeful that, with time, this kind of optimism can become widespread enough that it becomes a social custom, not just a trick used by a few specialists. It is after all an extremely lucrative trick, and those tend to spread quickly. Of course, inexperience is not the only reason people are too harsh on early versions of ambitious projects. They also do it to seem clever. And in a field where the new ideas are risky, like startups, those who dismiss them are in fact more likely to be right. Just not when their predictions are weighted by outcome . But there is another more sinister reason people dismiss new ideas. If you try something ambitious, many of those around you will hope, consciously or unconsciously, that you'll fail. They worry that if you try something ambitious and succeed, it will put you above them. In some countries this is not just an individual failing but part of the national culture. I wouldn't claim that people in <LOCATION> overcome these impulses because they're morally better. [ 1 ] The reason many hope you'll succeed is that they hope to rise with you. For investors this incentive is particularly explicit. They want you to succeed because they hope you'll make them rich in the process. But many other people you meet can hope to benefit in some way from your success. At the very least they'll be able to say, when you're famous, that they've known you since way back. But even if <LOCATION> encouraging attitude is rooted in self-interest, it has over time actually grown into a sort of benevolence. Encouraging startups has been practiced for so long that it has become a custom. Now it just seems that that's what one does with startups. Maybe <LOCATION> is too optimistic. Maybe it's too easily fooled by impostors. Many less optimistic journalists want to believe that. But the lists of impostors they cite are suspiciously short, and plagued with asterisks. [ 2 ] If you use revenue as the test, <LOCATION> optimism seems better tuned than the rest of the world's. And because it works, it will spread. There's a lot more to new ideas than new startup ideas, of course. The fear of making something lame holds people back in every field. But <LOCATION> shows how quickly customs can evolve to support new ideas. And that in turn proves that dismissing new ideas is not so deeply rooted in human nature that it can't be unlearnt. ___________ Unfortunately, if you want to do new things, you'll face a force more powerful than other people's skepticism: your own skepticism. You too will judge your early work too harshly. How do you avoid that? This is a difficult problem, because you don't want to completely eliminate your horror of making something lame. That's what steers you toward doing good work. You just want to turn it off temporarily, the way a painkiller temporarily turns off pain. People have already discovered several techniques that work. Hardy mentions two in A Mathematician's Apology : Good work is not done by "humble" men. It is one of the first duties of a professor, for example, in any subject, to exaggerate a little both the importance of his subject and his importance in it. If you overestimate the importance of what you're working on, that will compensate for your mistakenly harsh judgment of your initial results. If you look at something that's 20% of the way to a goal worth 100 and conclude that it's 10% of the way to a goal worth 200, your estimate of its expected value is correct even though both components are wrong. It also helps, as <PERSON> suggests, to be slightly overconfident. I've noticed in many fields that the most successful people are slightly overconfident. On the face of it this seems implausible. Surely it would be optimal to have exactly the right estimate of one's abilities. How could it be an advantage to be mistaken? Because this error compensates for other sources of error in the opposite direction: being slightly overconfident armors you against both other people's skepticism and your own. Ignorance has a similar effect. It's safe to make the mistake of judging early work as finished work if you're a sufficiently lax judge of finished work. I doubt it's possible to cultivate this kind of ignorance, but empirically it's a real advantage, especially for the young. Another way to get through the lame phase of ambitious projects is to surround yourself with the right people to create an eddy in the social headwind. But it's not enough to collect people who are always encouraging. You'd learn to discount that. You need colleagues who can actually tell an ugly duckling from a baby swan. The people best able to do this are those working on similar projects of their own, which is why university departments and research labs work so well. You don't need institutions to collect colleagues. They naturally coalesce, given the chance. But it's very much worth accelerating this process by seeking out other people trying to do new things. Teachers are in effect a special case of colleagues. It's a teacher's job both to see the promise of early work and to encourage you to continue. But teachers who are good at this are unfortunately quite rare, so if you have the opportunity to learn from one, take it. [ 3 ] For some it might work to rely on sheer discipline: to tell yourself that you just have to press on through the initial crap phase and not get discouraged. But like a lot of "just tell yourself" advice, this is harder than it sounds. And it gets still harder as you get older, because your standards rise. The old do have one compensating advantage though: they've been through this before. It can help if you focus less on where you are and more on the rate of change. You won't worry so much about doing bad work if you can see it improving. Obviously the faster it improves, the easier this is. So when you start something new, it's good if you can spend a lot of time on it. That's another advantage of being young: you tend to have bigger blocks of time. Another common trick is to start by considering new work to be of a different, less exacting type. To start a painting saying that it's just a sketch, or a new piece of software saying that it's just a quick hack. Then you judge your initial results by a lower standard. Once the project is rolling you can sneakily convert it to something more. [ 4 ] This will be easier if you use a medium that lets you work fast and doesn't require too much commitment up front. It's easier to convince yourself that something is just a sketch when you're drawing in a notebook than when you're carving stone. Plus you get initial results faster. [ 5 ] [ 6 ] It will be easier to try out a risky project if you think of it as a way to learn and not just as a way to make something. Then even if the project truly is a failure, you'll still have gained by it. If the problem is sharply enough defined, failure itself is knowledge: if the theorem you're trying to prove turns out to be false, or you use a structural member of a certain size and it fails under stress, you've learned something, even if it isn't what you wanted to learn. [ 7 ] One motivation that works particularly well for me is curiosity. I like to try new things just to see how they'll turn out. We started Y Combinator in this spirit, and it was one of main things that kept me going while I was working on <PERSON> . Having worked for so long with various dialects of Lisp, I was very curious to see what its inherent shape was: what you'd end up with if you followed the axiomatic approach all the way. But it's a bit strange that you have to play mind games with yourself to avoid being discouraged by lame-looking early efforts. The thing you're trying to trick yourself into believing is in fact the truth. A lame-looking early version of an ambitious project truly is more valuable than it seems. So the ultimate solution may be to teach yourself that. One way to do it is to study the histories of people who've done great work. What were they thinking early on? What was the very first thing they did? It can sometimes be hard to get an accurate answer to this question, because people are often embarrassed by their earliest work and make little effort to publish it. (They too misjudge it.) But when you can get an accurate picture of the first steps someone made on the path to some great work, they're often pretty feeble. [ 8 ] Perhaps if you study enough such cases, you can teach yourself to be a better judge of early work. Then you'll be immune both to other people's skepticism and your own fear of making something lame. You'll see early work for what it is. Curiously enough, the solution to the problem of judging early work too harshly is to realize that our attitudes toward it are themselves early work. Holding everything to the same standard is a crude version 1. We're already evolving better customs, and we can already see signs of how big the payoff will be. Notes [ 1 ] This assumption may be too conservative. There is some evidence that historically <LOCATION> has attracted a different sort of person than, say, <LOCATION>. [ 2 ] One of their great favorites is <PERSON>. But the most conspicuous feature of <PERSON>'s cap table is the absence of <LOCATION> firms. Journalists were fooled by <PERSON>, but <LOCATION> investors weren't. [ 3 ] I made two mistakes about teachers when I was younger. I cared more about professors' research than their reputations as teachers, and I was also wrong about what it meant to be a good teacher. I thought it simply meant to be good at explaining things. [ 4 ] <PERSON> points out that you can go past treating something as a hack in the sense of a prototype and onward to the sense of the word that means something closer to a practical joke: I think there may be something related to being a hack that can be powerful the idea of making the tenuousness and implausibility a feature . "Yes, it's a bit ridiculous, right? I'm just trying to see how far such a naive approach can get." YC seemed to me to have this characteristic. [ 5 ] Much of the advantage of switching from physical to digital media is not the software per se but that it lets you start something new with little upfront commitment. [ 6 ] <PERSON> adds: The value of a medium without a vast gulf between the early work and the final work is exemplified in game mods. The original Quake game was a golden age for mods, because everything was very flexible, but so crude due to technical limitations, that quick hacks to try out a gameplay idea weren't all that far from the official game. Many careers were born from that, but as the commercial game quality improved over <DATE_TIME>, it became almost a full time job to make a successful mod that would be appreciated by the community. This was dramatically reversed with Minecraft and later Roblox, where the entire esthetic of the experience was so explicitly crude that innovative gameplay concepts became the overriding value. These "crude" game mods by single authors are now often bigger deals than massive professional teams' work. [ 7 ] <PERSON> suggests that we treat new things as experiments. That way there's no such thing as failing, since you learn something no matter what. You treat it like an experiment in the sense that if it really rules something out, you give up and move on, but if there's some way to vary it to make it work better, go ahead and do that [ 8 ] <PERSON> points out that the internet has made this easier, because you can see programmers' first commits, musicians' first videos, and so on. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this.
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Modeling a Wealth Tax <DATE_TIME> Some politicians are proposing to introduce wealth taxes in addition to income and capital gains taxes. Let's try modeling the effects of various levels of wealth tax to see what they would mean in practice for a startup founder. Suppose you start a successful startup in your <DATE_TIME>, and then live for <DATE_TIME>. How much of your stock will a wealth tax consume? If the wealth tax applies to all your assets, it's easy to calculate its effect. A wealth tax of 1% means you get to keep 99% of your stock <DATE_TIME>. After <DATE_TIME> the proportion of stock you'll have left will be <DATE_TIME>^60, or .547. So a straight 1% wealth tax means the government will over the course of your life take 45% of your stock. (Losing shares does not, obviously, mean becoming net poorer unless the value per share is increasing by less than the wealth tax rate.) Here's how much stock the government would take <DATE_TIME> at various levels of wealth tax: wealth tax government takes 0.1% 6% 0.5% 26% 1.0% 45% 2.0% 70% 3.0% 84% 4.0% 91% 5.0% 95% A wealth tax will usually have a threshold at which it starts. How much difference would a high threshold make? To model that, we need to make some assumptions about the initial value of your stock and the growth rate. Suppose your stock is initially worth $2 million, and the company's trajectory is as follows: the value of your stock grows 3x for <DATE_TIME>, then 2x for <DATE_TIME>, then 50% for <DATE_TIME>, after which you just get a typical public company growth rate, which we'll call 8%. [ 1 ] Suppose the wealth tax threshold is $50 million. How much stock does the government take now? wealth tax government takes 0.1% 5% 0.5% 23% 1.0% 41% 2.0% 65% 3.0% 79% 4.0% 88% 5.0% 93% It may at first seem surprising that such apparently small tax rates produce such dramatic effects. A 2% wealth tax with a $50 million threshold takes about two thirds of a successful founder's stock. The reason wealth taxes have such dramatic effects is that they're applied over and over to the same money. Income tax happens <DATE_TIME>, but only to that <DATE_TIME>'s income. Whereas if you live for <DATE_TIME> after acquiring some asset, a wealth tax will tax that same asset 60 times. A wealth tax compounds. Note [ 1 ] In practice, eventually some of this 8% would come in the form of dividends, which are taxed as income at issue, so this model actually represents the most optimistic case for the founder.
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Orthodox Privilege July 2020 "Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are even incapable of forming such opinions." <PERSON> There has been a lot of talk about privilege lately. Although the concept is overused, there is something to it, and in particular to the idea that privilege makes you blind that you can't see things that are visible to someone whose life is very different from yours. But one of the most pervasive examples of this kind of blindness is one that I haven't seen mentioned explicitly. I'm going to call it orthodox privilege : The more conventional-minded someone is, the more it seems to them that it's safe for everyone to express their opinions. It's safe for them to express their opinions, because the source of their opinions is whatever it's currently acceptable to believe. So it seems to them that it must be safe for everyone. They literally can't imagine a true statement that would get you in trouble. And yet at every point in history, there were true things that would get you in trouble to say. Is ours the first where this isn't so? What an amazing coincidence that would be. Surely it should at least be the default assumption that our time is not unique, and that there are true things you can't say now, just as there have always been. You would think. But even in the face of such overwhelming historical evidence, most people will go with their gut on this one. In the most extreme cases, people suffering from orthodox privilege will not only deny that there's anything true that you can't say, but will accuse you of heresy merely for saying there is. Though if there's more than one heresy current in your time, these accusations will be weirdly non-deterministic: you must either be an xist or a yist. Frustrating as it is to deal with these people, it's important to realize that they're in earnest. They're not pretending they think it's impossible for an idea to be both unorthodox and true. The world really looks that way to them. Indeed, this is a uniquely tenacious form of privilege. People can overcome the blindness induced by most forms of privilege by learning more about whatever they're not. But they can't overcome orthodox privilege just by learning more. They'd have to become more independent-minded. If that happens at all, it doesn't happen on the time scale of one conversation. It may be possible to convince some people that orthodox privilege must exist even though they can't sense it, just as one can with, say, dark matter. There may be some who could be convinced, for example, that it's very unlikely that this is the first point in history at which there's nothing true you can't say, even if they can't imagine specific examples. But in general I don't think it will work to say "check your privilege" about this type of privilege, because those in its demographic don't realize they're in it. It doesn't seem to conventional-minded people that they're conventional-minded. It just seems to them that they're right. Indeed, they tend to be particularly sure of it. Perhaps the solution is to appeal to politeness. If someone says they can hear a high-pitched noise that you can't, it's only polite to take them at their word, instead of demanding evidence that's impossible to produce, or simply denying that they hear anything. Imagine how rude that would seem. Similarly, if someone says they can think of things that are true but that cannot be said, it's only polite to take them at their word, even if you can't think of any yourself. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and Harj Taggar for reading drafts of this.
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Coronavirus and Credibility <DATE_TIME> I recently saw a video of TV journalists and politicians confidently saying that the coronavirus would be no worse than the flu. What struck me about it was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how daring. How could they feel safe saying such things? The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get caught. They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions. These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember what they said. An epidemic is different. It falsifies your predictions rapidly and unequivocally. But epidemics are rare enough that these people clearly didn't realize this was even a possibility. Instead they just continued to use their ordinary m.o., which, as the epidemic has made clear, is to talk confidently about things they don't understand. An event like this is thus a uniquely powerful way of taking people's measure. As <PERSON> said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." And the tide has just gone out like never before. Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have. I hope. <NRP> Translation German Translation French Translation
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How to Write Usefully <DATE_TIME> What should an essay be? Many people would say persuasive. That's what a lot of us were taught essays should be. But I think we can aim for something more ambitious: that an essay should be useful. To start with, that means it should be correct. But it's not enough merely to be correct. It's easy to make a statement correct by making it vague. That's a common flaw in academic writing, for example. If you know nothing at all about an issue, you can't go wrong by saying that the issue is a complex one, that there are many factors to be considered, that it's a mistake to take too simplistic a view of it, and so on. Though no doubt correct, such statements tell the reader nothing. Useful writing makes claims that are as strong as they can be made without becoming false. For example, it's more useful to say that Pike's Peak is near the middle of <LOCATION> than merely somewhere in <LOCATION>. But if I say it's in the exact middle of <LOCATION>, I've now gone too far, because it's a bit east of the middle. Precision and correctness are like opposing forces. It's easy to satisfy one if you ignore the other. The converse of vaporous academic writing is the bold, but false, rhetoric of demagogues. Useful writing is bold, but true. It's also two other things: it tells people something important, and that at least some of them didn't already know. Telling people something they didn't know doesn't always mean surprising them. Sometimes it means telling them something they knew unconsciously but had never put into words. In fact those may be the more valuable insights, because they tend to be more fundamental. Let's put them all together. Useful writing tells people something true and important that they didn't already know, and tells them as unequivocally as possible. Notice these are all a matter of degree. For example, you can't expect an idea to be novel to everyone. Any insight that you have will probably have already been had by at least one of the world's 7 billion people. But it's sufficient if an idea is novel to a lot of readers. Ditto for correctness, importance, and strength. In effect the four components are like numbers you can multiply together to get a score for usefulness. Which I realize is almost awkwardly reductive, but nonetheless true. _____ How can you ensure that the things you say are true and novel and important? Believe it or not, there is a trick for doing this. I learned it from my friend <PERSON>, who has a horror of saying anything dumb. His trick is not to say anything unless he's sure it's worth hearing. This makes it hard to get opinions out of him, but when you do, they're usually right. Translated into essay writing, what this means is that if you write a bad sentence, you don't publish it. You delete it and try again. Often you abandon whole branches of four or five paragraphs. Sometimes a whole essay. You can't ensure that every idea you have is good, but you can ensure that every one you publish is, by simply not publishing the ones that aren't. In the sciences, this is called publication bias, and is considered bad. When some hypothesis you're exploring gets inconclusive results, you're supposed to tell people about that too. But with essay writing, publication bias is the way to go. My strategy is loose, then tight. I write the first draft of an essay fast, trying out all kinds of ideas. Then I spend days rewriting it very carefully. I've never tried to count how many times I proofread essays, but I'm sure there are sentences I've read 100 times before publishing them. When I proofread an essay, there are usually passages that stick out in an annoying way, sometimes because they're clumsily written, and sometimes because I'm not sure they're true. The annoyance starts out unconscious, but after the tenth reading or so I'm saying "Ugh, that part" each time I hit it. They become like briars that catch your sleeve as you walk past. Usually I won't publish an essay till they're all gone till I can read through the whole thing without the feeling of anything catching. I'll sometimes let through a sentence that seems clumsy, if I can't think of a way to rephrase it, but I will never knowingly let through one that doesn't seem correct. You never have to. If a sentence doesn't seem right, all you have to do is ask why it doesn't, and you've usually got the replacement right there in your head. This is where essayists have an advantage over journalists. You don't have a deadline. You can work for as long on an essay as you need to get it right. You don't have to publish the essay at all, if you can't get it right. Mistakes seem to lose courage in the face of an enemy with unlimited resources. Or that's what it feels like. What's really going on is that you have different expectations for yourself. You're like a parent saying to a child "we can sit here <DATE_TIME> till you eat your vegetables." Except you're the child too. I'm not saying no mistake gets through. For example, I added condition (c) in "A Way to Detect Bias" after readers pointed out that I'd omitted it. But in practice you can catch nearly all of them. There's a trick for getting importance too. It's like the trick I suggest to young founders for getting startup ideas: to make something you yourself want. You can use yourself as a proxy for the reader. The reader is not completely unlike you, so if you write about topics that seem important to you, they'll probably seem important to a significant number of readers as well. Importance has two factors. It's the number of people something matters to, times how much it matters to them. Which means of course that it's not a rectangle, but a sort of ragged comb, like a Riemann sum. The way to get novelty is to write about topics you've thought about a lot. Then you can use yourself as a proxy for the reader in this department too. Anything you notice that surprises you, who've thought about the topic a lot, will probably also surprise a significant number of readers. And here, as with correctness and importance, you can use the <PERSON> technique to ensure that you will. If you don't learn anything from writing an essay, don't publish it. You need humility to measure novelty, because acknowledging the novelty of an idea means acknowledging your previous ignorance of it. Confidence and humility are often seen as opposites, but in this case, as in many others, confidence helps you to be humble. If you know you're an expert on some topic, you can freely admit when you learn something you didn't know, because you can be confident that most other people wouldn't know it either. The fourth component of useful writing, strength, comes from two things: thinking well, and the skillful use of qualification. These two counterbalance each other, like the accelerator and clutch in a car with a manual transmission. As you try to refine the expression of an idea, you adjust the qualification accordingly. Something you're sure of, you can state baldly with no qualification at all, as I did the four components of useful writing. Whereas points that seem dubious have to be held at arm's length with perhapses. As you refine an idea, you're pushing in the direction of less qualification. But you can rarely get it down to zero. Sometimes you don't even want to, if it's a side point and a fully refined version would be too long. Some say that qualifications weaken writing. For example, that you should never begin a sentence in an essay with "I think," because if you're saying it, then of course you think it. And it's true that "I think x" is a weaker statement than simply "x." Which is exactly why you need "I think." You need it to express your degree of certainty. But qualifications are not scalars. They're not just experimental error. There must be 50 things they can express: how broadly something applies, how you know it, how happy you are it's so, even how it could be falsified. I'm not going to try to explore the structure of qualification here. It's probably more complex than the whole topic of writing usefully. Instead I'll just give you a practical tip: Don't underestimate qualification. It's an important skill in its own right, not just a sort of tax you have to pay in order to avoid saying things that are false. So learn and use its full range. It may not be fully half of having good ideas, but it's part of having them. There's one other quality I aim for in essays: to say things as simply as possible. But I don't think this is a component of usefulness. It's more a matter of consideration for the reader. And it's a practical aid in getting things right; a mistake is more obvious when expressed in simple language. But I'll admit that the main reason I write simply is not for the reader's sake or because it helps get things right, but because it bothers me to use more or fancier words than I need to. It seems inelegant, like a program that's too long. I realize florid writing works for some people. But unless you're sure you're one of them, the best advice is to write as simply as you can. _____ I believe the formula I've given you, importance + novelty + correctness + strength, is the recipe for a good essay. But I should warn you that it's also a recipe for making people mad. The root of the problem is novelty. When you tell people something they didn't know, they don't always thank you for it. Sometimes the reason people don't know something is because they don't want to know it. Usually because it contradicts some cherished belief. And indeed, if you're looking for novel ideas, popular but mistaken beliefs are a good place to find them. Every popular mistaken belief creates a dead zone of ideas around it that are relatively unexplored because they contradict it. The strength component just makes things worse. If there's anything that annoys people more than having their cherished assumptions contradicted, it's having them flatly contradicted. Plus if you've used the <PERSON> technique, your writing will seem quite confident. Perhaps offensively confident, to people who disagree with you. The reason you'll seem confident is that you are confident: you've cheated, by only publishing the things you're sure of. It will seem to people who try to disagree with you that you never admit you're wrong. In fact you constantly admit you're wrong. You just do it before publishing instead of after. And if your writing is as simple as possible, that just makes things worse. Brevity is the diction of command. If you watch someone delivering unwelcome news from a position of inferiority, you'll notice they tend to use lots of words, to soften the blow. Whereas to be short with someone is more or less to be rude to them. It can sometimes work to deliberately phrase statements more weakly than you mean. To put "perhaps" in front of something you're actually quite sure of. But you'll notice that when writers do this, they usually do it with a wink. I don't like to do this too much. It's cheesy to adopt an ironic tone for a whole essay. I think we just have to face the fact that elegance and curtness are two names for the same thing. You might think that if you work sufficiently hard to ensure that an essay is correct, it will be invulnerable to attack. That's sort of true. It will be invulnerable to valid attacks. But in practice that's little consolation. In fact, the strength component of useful writing will make you particularly vulnerable to misrepresentation. If you've stated an idea as strongly as you could without making it false, all anyone has to do is to exaggerate slightly what you said, and now it is false. Much of the time they're not even doing it deliberately. One of the most surprising things you'll discover, if you start writing essays, is that people who disagree with you rarely disagree with what you've actually written. Instead they make up something you said and disagree with that. For what it's worth, the countermove is to ask someone who does this to quote a specific sentence or passage you wrote that they believe is false, and explain why. I say "for what it's worth" because they never do. So although it might seem that this could get a broken discussion back on track, the truth is that it was never on track in the first place. Should you explicitly forestall likely misinterpretations? Yes, if they're misinterpretations a reasonably smart and well-intentioned person might make. In fact it's sometimes better to say something slightly misleading and then add the correction than to try to get an idea right in one shot. That can be more efficient, and can also model the way such an idea would be discovered. But I don't think you should explicitly forestall intentional misinterpretations in the body of an essay. An essay is a place to meet honest readers. You don't want to spoil your house by putting bars on the windows to protect against dishonest ones. The place to protect against intentional misinterpretations is in end-notes. But don't think you can predict them all. People are as ingenious at misrepresenting you when you say something they don't want to hear as they are at coming up with rationalizations for things they want to do but know they shouldn't. I suspect it's the same skill. _____ As with most other things, the way to get better at writing essays is to practice. But how do you start? Now that we've examined the structure of useful writing, we can rephrase that question more precisely. Which constraint do you relax initially? The answer is, the first component of importance: the number of people who care about what you write. If you narrow the topic sufficiently, you can probably find something you're an expert on. Write about that to start with. If you only have ten readers who care, that's fine. You're helping them, and you're writing. Later you can expand the breadth of topics you write about. The other constraint you can relax is a little surprising: publication. Writing essays doesn't have to mean publishing them. That may seem strange now that the trend is to publish every random thought, but it worked for me. I wrote what amounted to essays in notebooks for <DATE_TIME>. I never published any of them and never expected to. I wrote them as a way of figuring things out. But when the web came along I'd had a lot of practice. Incidentally, <PERSON> did the same thing. In high school he designed computers on paper for fun. He couldn't build them because he couldn't afford the components. But when Intel launched 4K DRAMs in <DATE_TIME>, he was ready. _____ How many essays are there left to write though? The answer to that question is probably the most exciting thing I've learned about essay writing. Nearly all of them are left to write. Although the essay is an old form, it hasn't been assiduously cultivated. In the print era, publication was expensive, and there wasn't enough demand for essays to publish that many. You could publish essays if you were already well known for writing something else, like novels. Or you could write book reviews that you took over to express your own ideas. But there was not really a direct path to becoming an essayist. Which meant few essays got written, and those that did tended to be about a narrow range of subjects. Now, thanks to the internet, there's a path. Anyone can publish essays online. You start in obscurity, perhaps, but at least you can start. You don't need anyone's permission. It sometimes happens that an area of knowledge sits quietly for <DATE_TIME>, till some change makes it explode. Cryptography did this to number theory. The internet is doing it to the essay. The exciting thing is not that there's a lot left to write, but that there's a lot left to discover. There's a certain kind of idea that's best discovered by writing essays. If most essays are still unwritten, most such ideas are still undiscovered. Notes [1] Put railings on the balconies, but don't put bars on the windows. [2] Even now I sometimes write essays that are not meant for publication. I wrote several to figure out what Y Combinator should do, and they were really helpful. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation Japanese Translation
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Being a Noob <DATE_TIME> When I was young, I thought old people had everything figured out. Now that I'm old, I know this isn't true. I constantly feel like a noob. It seems like I'm always talking to some startup working in a new field I know nothing about, or reading a book about a topic I don't understand well enough, or visiting some new country where I don't know how things work. It's not pleasant to feel like a noob. And the word "noob" is certainly not a compliment. And yet today I realized something encouraging about being a noob: the more of a noob you are locally, the less of a noob you are globally. For example, if you stay in your home country, you'll feel less of a noob than if you move to Farawavia, where everything works differently. And yet you'll know more if you move. So the feeling of being a noob is inversely correlated with actual ignorance. But if the feeling of being a noob is good for us, why do we dislike it? What evolutionary purpose could such an aversion serve? I think the answer is that there are two sources of feeling like a noob: being stupid, and doing something novel. Our dislike of feeling like a noob is our brain telling us "Come on, come on, figure this out." Which was the right thing to be thinking for most of human history. The life of hunter-gatherers was complex, but it didn't change as much as life does now. They didn't suddenly have to figure out what to do about cryptocurrency. So it made sense to be biased toward competence at existing problems over the discovery of new ones. It made sense for humans to dislike the feeling of being a noob, just as, in a world where food was scarce, it made sense for them to dislike the feeling of being hungry. Now that too much food is more of a problem than too little, our dislike of feeling hungry leads us astray. And I think our dislike of feeling like a noob does too. Though it feels unpleasant, and people will sometimes ridicule you for it, the more you feel like a noob, the better. <NRP> Translation Arabic Translation French Translation Korean Translation Polish Translation Chinese Translation Serbian Translation French Translation
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Haters <DATE_TIME> (I originally intended this for startup founders, who are often surprised by the attention they get as their companies grow, but it applies equally to anyone who becomes famous.) If you become sufficiently famous, you'll acquire some fans who like you too much. These people are sometimes called "fanboys," and though I dislike that term, I'm going to have to use it here. We need some word for them, because this is a distinct phenomenon from someone simply liking your work. A fanboy is obsessive and uncritical. Liking you becomes part of their identity, and they create an image of you in their own head that is much better than reality. Everything you do is good, because you do it. If you do something bad, they find a way to see it as good. And their love for you is not, usually, a quiet, private one. They want everyone to know how great you are. Well, you may be thinking, I could do without this kind of obsessive fan, but I know there are all kinds of people in the world, and if this is the worst consequence of fame, that's not so bad. Unfortunately this is not the worst consequence of fame. As well as fanboys, you'll have haters. A hater is obsessive and uncritical. Disliking you becomes part of their identity, and they create an image of you in their own head that is much worse than reality. Everything you do is bad, because you do it. If you do something good, they find a way to see it as bad. And their dislike for you is not, usually, a quiet, private one. They want everyone to know how awful you are. If you're thinking of checking, I'll save you the trouble. The second and fifth paragraphs are identical except for "good" being switched to "bad" and so on. I spent <DATE_TIME> puzzling about haters. What are they, and where do they come from? Then <DATE_TIME> it dawned on me. Haters are just fanboys with the sign switched. Note that by haters, I don't simply mean trolls. I'm not talking about people who say bad things about you and then move on. I'm talking about the much smaller group of people for whom this becomes a kind of obsession and who do it repeatedly over a long period. Like fans, haters seem to be an automatic consequence of fame. Anyone sufficiently famous will have them. And like fans, haters are energized by the fame of whoever they hate. They hear a song by some pop singer. They don't like it much. If the singer were an obscure one, they'd just forget about it. But instead they keep hearing her name, and this seems to drive some people crazy. Everyone's always going on about this singer, but she's no good! She's a fraud! That word "fraud" is an important one. It's the spectral signature of a hater to regard the object of their hatred as a fraud . They can't deny their fame. Indeed, their fame is if anything exaggerated in the hater's mind. They notice every mention of the singer's name, because every mention makes them angrier. In their own minds they exaggerate both the singer's fame and her lack of talent, and the only way to reconcile those two ideas is to conclude that she has tricked everyone. What sort of people become haters? Can anyone become one? I'm not sure about this, but I've noticed some patterns. Haters are generally losers in a very specific sense: although they are occasionally talented, they have never achieved much. And indeed, anyone successful enough to have achieved significant fame would be unlikely to regard another famous person as a fraud on that account, because anyone famous knows how random fame is. But haters are not always complete losers. They are not always the proverbial guy living in his mom's basement. Many are, but some have some amount of talent. In fact I suspect that a sense of frustrated talent is what drives some people to become haters. They're not just saying "It's unfair that so-and-so is famous," but "It's unfair that so-and-so is famous, and not me." Could a hater be cured if they achieved something impressive? My guess is that's a moot point, because they never will . I've been able to observe for long enough that I'm fairly confident the pattern works both ways: not only do people who do great work never become haters, haters never do great work. Although I dislike the word "fanboy," it's evocative of something important about both haters and fanboys. It implies that the fanboy is so slavishly predictable in his admiration that he's diminished as a result, that he's less than a man. Haters seem even more diminished. I can imagine being a fanboy. I can think of people whose work I admire so much that I could abase myself before them out of sheer gratitude. If <PERSON> were still alive, I could see myself being a <PERSON> fanboy. But I could not imagine being a hater. Knowing that haters are just fanboys with the sign bit flipped makes it much easier to deal with them. We don't need a separate theory of haters. We can just use existing techniques for dealing with obsessive fans. The most important of which is simply not to think much about them. If you're like most people who become famous enough to acquire haters, your initial reaction will be one of mystification. Why does this guy seem to have it in for me? Where does his obsessive energy come from, and what makes him so appallingly nasty? What did I do to set him off? Is it something I can fix? The mistake here is to think of the hater as someone you have a dispute with. When you have a dispute with someone, it's usually a good idea to try to understand why they're upset and then fix things if you can. Disputes are distracting. But it's a false analogy to think of a hater as someone you have a dispute with. It's an understandable mistake, if you've never encountered haters before. But when you realize that you're dealing with a hater, and what a hater is, it's clear that it's a waste of time even to think about them. If you have obsessive fans, do you spend any time wondering what makes them love you so much? No, you just think "some people are kind of crazy," and that's the end of it. Since haters are equivalent to fanboys, that's the way to deal with them too. There may have been something that set them off. But it's not something that would have set off a normal person, so there's no reason to spend any time thinking about it. It's not you, it's them. Notes [1] There are of course some people who are genuine frauds. How can you distinguish between x calling y a fraud because x is a hater, and because y is a fraud? Look at neutral opinion. Actual frauds are usually pretty conspicuous. Thoughtful people are rarely taken in by them. So if there are some thoughtful people who like y, you can usually assume y is not a fraud. [2] I would make an exception for teenagers, who sometimes act in such extreme ways that they are literally not themselves. I can imagine a teenage kid being a hater and then growing out of it. But not anyone over <DATE_TIME>. [3] I have a much worse memory for misdeeds than my wife <PERSON>, who is a connoisseur of character, but I don't wish it were better. Most disputes are a waste of time even if you're in the right, and it's easy to bury the hatchet with someone if you can't remember why you were mad at them. [4] A competent hater will not merely attack you individually but will try to get mobs after you. In some cases you may want to refute whatever bogus claim they made in order to do so. But err on the side of not, because ultimately it probably won't matter. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, Harj Taggar, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation Arabic Translation Polish Translation
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The Two Kinds of Moderate <DATE_TIME> There are two distinct ways to be politically moderate: on purpose and by accident. Intentional moderates are trimmers, deliberately choosing a position mid-way between the extremes of right and left. Accidental moderates end up in the middle, on average, because they make up their own minds about each question, and the far right and far left are roughly equally wrong. You can distinguish intentional from accidental moderates by the distribution of their opinions. If the far left opinion on some matter is 0 and the far right opinion 100, an intentional moderate's opinion on every question will be near <DATE_TIME>. Whereas an accidental moderate's opinions will be scattered over a broad range, but will, like those of the intentional moderate, average to about 50. Intentional moderates are similar to those on the far left and the far right in that their opinions are, in a sense, not their own. The defining quality of an ideologue, whether on the left or the right, is to acquire one's opinions in bulk. You don't get to pick and choose. Your opinions about taxation can be predicted from your opinions about sex. And although intentional moderates might seem to be the opposite of ideologues, their beliefs (though in their case the word "positions" might be more accurate) are also acquired in bulk. If the median opinion shifts to the right or left, the intentional moderate must shift with it. Otherwise they stop being moderate. Accidental moderates, on the other hand, not only choose their own answers, but choose their own questions. They may not care at all about questions that the left and right both think are terribly important. So you can only even measure the politics of an accidental moderate from the intersection of the questions they care about and those the left and right care about, and this can sometimes be vanishingly small. It is not merely a manipulative rhetorical trick to say "if you're not with us, you're against us," but often simply false. Moderates are sometimes derided as cowards, particularly by the extreme left. But while it may be accurate to call intentional moderates cowards, openly being an accidental moderate requires the most courage of all, because you get attacked from both right and left, and you don't have the comfort of being an orthodox member of a large group to sustain you. Nearly all the most impressive people I know are accidental moderates. If I knew a lot of professional athletes, or people in the entertainment business, that might be different. Being on the far left or far right doesn't affect how fast you run or how well you sing. But someone who works with ideas has to be independent-minded to do it well. Or more precisely, you have to be independent-minded about the ideas you work with. You could be mindlessly doctrinaire in your politics and still be a good mathematician. In <DATE_TIME>, a lot of very smart people were <NRP> just no one who was smart about the subjects <NRP> involves. But if the ideas you use in your work intersect with the politics of your time, you have two choices: be an accidental moderate, or be mediocre. Notes [1] It's possible in theory for one side to be entirely right and the other to be entirely wrong. Indeed, ideologues must always believe this is the case. But historically it rarely has been. [2] For some reason the far right tend to ignore moderates rather than despise them as backsliders. I'm not sure why. Perhaps it means that the far right is less ideological than the far left. Or perhaps that they are more confident, or more resigned, or simply more disorganized. I just don't know. [3] Having heretical opinions doesn't mean you have to express them openly. It may be easier to have them if you don't. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and Harj Taggar for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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Fashionable Problems <DATE_TIME> I've seen the same pattern in many different fields: even though lots of people have worked hard in the field, only a small fraction of the space of possibilities has been explored, because they've all worked on similar things. Even the smartest, most imaginative people are surprisingly conservative when deciding what to work on. People who would never dream of being fashionable in any other way get sucked into working on fashionable problems. If you want to try working on unfashionable problems, one of the best places to look is in fields that people think have already been fully explored: essays, Lisp, venture funding you may notice a pattern here. If you can find a new approach into a big but apparently played out field, the value of whatever you discover will be multiplied by its enormous surface area. The best protection against getting drawn into working on the same things as everyone else may be to genuinely love what you're doing. Then you'll continue to work on it even if you make the same mistake as other people and think that it's too marginal to matter. <NRP> Translation Arabic Translation French Translation
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Novelty and Heresy <DATE_TIME> If you discover something new, there's a significant chance you'll be accused of some form of heresy. To discover new things, you have to work on ideas that are good but non-obvious; if an idea is obviously good, other people are probably already working on it. One common way for a good idea to be non-obvious is for it to be hidden in the shadow of some mistaken assumption that people are very attached to. But anything you discover from working on such an idea will tend to contradict the mistaken assumption that was concealing it. And you will thus get a lot of heat from people attached to the mistaken assumption. Galileo and <PERSON> are famous examples of this phenomenon, but it's probably always an ingredient in the resistance to new ideas. So it's particularly dangerous for an organization or society to have a culture of pouncing on heresy. When you suppress heresies, you don't just prevent people from contradicting the mistaken assumption you're trying to protect. You also suppress any idea that implies indirectly that it's false. Every cherished mistaken assumption has a dead zone of unexplored ideas around it. And the more preposterous the assumption, the bigger the dead zone it creates. There is a positive side to this phenomenon though. If you're looking for new ideas, one way to find them is by looking for heresies . When you look at the question this way, the depressingly large dead zones around mistaken assumptions become excitingly large mines of new ideas. <NRP> Translation Russian Translation Simplified Chinese Translation
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The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius November 2019 Everyone knows that to do great work you need both natural ability and determination. But there's a third ingredient that's not as well understood: an obsessive interest in a particular topic. To explain this point I need to burn my reputation with some group of people, and I'm going to choose bus ticket collectors. There are people who collect old bus tickets. Like many collectors, they have an obsessive interest in the minutiae of what they collect. They can keep track of distinctions between different types of bus tickets that would be hard for the rest of us to remember. Because we don't care enough. What's the point of spending so much time thinking about old bus tickets? Which leads us to the second feature of this kind of obsession: there is no point. A bus ticket collector's love is disinterested. They're not doing it to impress us or to make themselves rich, but for its own sake. When you look at the lives of people who've done great work, you see a consistent pattern. They often begin with a bus ticket collector's obsessive interest in something that would have seemed pointless to most of their contemporaries. One of the most striking features of <PERSON>'s book about his voyage on the Beagle is the sheer depth of his interest in natural history. His curiosity seems infinite. Ditto for <PERSON>, sitting by <DATE_TIME> working out on his slate what happens to series. It's a mistake to think they were "laying the groundwork" for the discoveries they made later. There's too much intention in that metaphor. Like bus ticket collectors, they were doing it because they liked it. But there is a difference between <PERSON> and a bus ticket collector. Series matter, and bus tickets don't. If I had to put the recipe for genius into one sentence, that might be it: to have a disinterested obsession with something that matters. Aren't I forgetting about the other two ingredients? Less than you might think. An obsessive interest in a topic is both a proxy for ability and a substitute for determination. Unless you have sufficient mathematical aptitude, you won't find series interesting. And when you're obsessively interested in something, you don't need as much determination: you don't need to push yourself as hard when curiosity is pulling you. An obsessive interest will even bring you luck, to the extent anything can. Chance, as Pasteur said, favors the prepared mind, and if there's one thing an obsessed mind is, it's prepared. The disinterestedness of this kind of obsession is its most important feature. Not just because it's a filter for earnestness, but because it helps you discover new ideas. The paths that lead to new ideas tend to look unpromising. If they looked promising, other people would already have explored them. How do the people who do great work discover these paths that others overlook? The popular story is that they simply have better vision: because they're so talented, they see paths that others miss. But if you look at the way great discoveries are made, that's not what happens. <PERSON> didn't pay closer attention to individual species than other people because he saw that this would lead to great discoveries, and they didn't. He was just really, really interested in such things. <PERSON> couldn't turn it off. Neither could <PERSON>. They didn't discover the hidden paths that they did because they seemed promising, but because they couldn't help it. That's what allowed them to follow paths that someone who was merely ambitious would have ignored. What rational person would decide that the way to write great novels was to begin by spending <DATE_TIME> creating an imaginary elvish language, like Tolkien, or visiting every household in southwestern <LOCATION>, like <PERSON>? No one, including Tolkien and Trollope. The bus ticket theory is similar to <PERSON>'s famous definition of genius as an infinite capacity for taking pains. But there are two differences. The bus ticket theory makes it clear that the source of this infinite capacity for taking pains is not infinite diligence, as <PERSON> seems to have meant, but the sort of infinite interest that collectors have. It also adds an important qualification: an infinite capacity for taking pains about something that matters. So what matters? You can never be sure. It's precisely because no one can tell in advance which paths are promising that you can discover new ideas by working on what you're interested in. But there are some heuristics you can use to guess whether an obsession might be one that matters. For example, it's more promising if you're creating something, rather than just consuming something someone else creates. It's more promising if something you're interested in is difficult, especially if it's more difficult for other people than it is for you. And the obsessions of talented people are more likely to be promising. When talented people become interested in random things, they're not truly random. But you can never be sure. In fact, here's an interesting idea that's also rather alarming if it's true: it may be that to do great work, you also have to waste a lot of time. In many different areas, reward is proportionate to risk. If that rule holds here, then the way to find paths that lead to truly great work is to be willing to expend a lot of effort on things that turn out to be every bit as unpromising as they seem. I'm not sure if this is true. On one hand, it seems surprisingly difficult to waste your time so long as you're working hard on something interesting. So much of what you do ends up being useful. But on the other hand, the rule about the relationship between risk and reward is so powerful that it seems to hold wherever risk occurs. Newton's case, at least, suggests that the risk/reward rule holds here. He's famous for one particular obsession of his that turned out to be unprecedentedly fruitful: using math to describe the world. But he had two other obsessions, alchemy and theology, that seem to have been complete wastes of time. He ended up net ahead. His bet on what we now call physics paid off so well that it more than compensated for the other two. But were the other two necessary, in the sense that he had to take big risks to make such big discoveries? I don't know. Here's an even more alarming idea: might one make all bad bets? It probably happens quite often. But we don't know how often, because these people don't become famous. It's not merely that the returns from following a path are hard to predict. They change dramatically over time. <DATE_TIME> was a really good time to be obsessively interested in natural history. If <PERSON> had been born in 1709 instead of <DATE_TIME>, we might never have heard of him. What can one do in the face of such uncertainty? One solution is to hedge your bets, which in this case means to follow the obviously promising paths instead of your own private obsessions. But as with any hedge, you're decreasing reward when you decrease risk. If you forgo working on what you like in order to follow some more conventionally ambitious path, you might miss something wonderful that you'd otherwise have discovered. That too must happen all the time, perhaps even more often than the genius whose bets all fail. The other solution is to let yourself be interested in lots of different things. You don't decrease your upside if you switch between equally genuine interests based on which seems to be working so far. But there is a danger here too: if you work on too many different projects, you might not get deeply enough into any of them. One interesting thing about the bus ticket theory is that it may help explain why different types of people excel at different kinds of work. Interest is much more unevenly distributed than ability. If natural ability is all you need to do great work, and natural ability is evenly distributed, you have to invent elaborate theories to explain the skewed distributions we see among those who actually do great work in various fields. But it may be that much of the skew has a simpler explanation: different people are interested in different things. The bus ticket theory also explains why people are less likely to do great work after they have children. Here interest has to compete not just with external obstacles, but with another interest, and one that for most people is extremely powerful. It's harder to find time for work after you have kids, but that's the easy part. The real change is that you don't want to. But the most exciting implication of the bus ticket theory is that it suggests ways to encourage great work. If the recipe for genius is simply natural ability plus hard work, all we can do is hope we have a lot of ability, and work as hard as we can. But if interest is a critical ingredient in genius, we may be able, by cultivating interest, to cultivate genius. For example, for the very ambitious, the bus ticket theory suggests that the way to do great work is to relax a little. Instead of gritting your teeth and diligently pursuing what all your peers agree is the most promising line of research, maybe you should try doing something just for fun. And if you're stuck, that may be the vector along which to break out. I've always liked <PERSON>'s famous double-barrelled question: what are the most important problems in your field, and why aren't you working on one of them? It's a great way to shake yourself up. But it may be overfitting a bit. It might be at least as useful to ask yourself: if you could take <DATE_TIME> off to work on something that probably wouldn't be important but would be really interesting, what would it be? The bus ticket theory also suggests a way to avoid slowing down as you get older. Perhaps the reason people have fewer new ideas as they get older is not simply that they're losing their edge. It may also be because once you become established, you can no longer mess about with irresponsible side projects the way you could when you were young and no one cared what you did. The solution to that is obvious: remain irresponsible. It will be hard, though, because the apparently random projects you take up to stave off decline will read to outsiders as evidence of it. And you yourself won't know for sure that they're wrong. But it will at least be more fun to work on what you want. It may even be that we can cultivate a habit of intellectual bus ticket collecting in kids. The usual plan in education is to start with a broad, shallow focus, then gradually become more specialized. But I've done the opposite with my kids. I know I can count on their school to handle the broad, shallow part, so I take them deep. When they get interested in something, however random, I encourage them to go preposterously, bus ticket collectorly, deep. I don't do this because of the bus ticket theory. I do it because I want them to feel the joy of learning, and they're never going to feel that about something I'm making them learn. It has to be something they're interested in. I'm just following the path of least resistance; depth is a byproduct. But if in trying to show them the joy of learning I also end up training them to go deep, so much the better. Will it have any effect? I have no idea. But that uncertainty may be the most interesting point of all. There is so much more to learn about how to do great work. As old as human civilization feels, it's really still very young if we haven't nailed something so basic. It's exciting to think there are still discoveries to make about discovery. If that's the sort of thing you're interested in. Notes [1] There are other types of collecting that illustrate this point better than bus tickets, but they're also more popular. It seemed just as well to use an inferior example rather than offend more people by telling them their hobby doesn't matter. [2] I worried a little about using the word "disinterested," since some people mistakenly believe it means not interested. But anyone who expects to be a genius will have to know the meaning of such a basic word, so I figure they may as well start now. [3] Think how often genius must have been nipped in the bud by people being told, or telling themselves, to stop messing about and be responsible. <PERSON>'s mother was a huge enabler. Imagine if she hadn't been. Imagine if his parents had made him go out and get a job instead of sitting around at home doing math. On the other hand, anyone quoting the preceding paragraph to justify not getting a job is probably mistaken. [4] 1709 <PERSON> is to time what the Milanese Leonardo is to space. [5] "An infinite capacity for taking pains" is a paraphrase of what <PERSON> wrote. What he wrote, in his History of Frederick the Great , was "... it is the fruit of 'genius' (which means transcendent capacity of taking trouble, first of all)...." Since the paraphrase seems the name of the idea at this point, I kept it. <PERSON>'s History was published in <DATE_TIME>. In <DATE_TIME> Hrault de Schelles quoted <PERSON> as saying "Le gnie n'est qu'une plus grande aptitude la patience." (Genius is only a greater aptitude for patience.) [6] Trollope was establishing the system of postal routes. He himself sensed the obsessiveness with which he pursued this goal. It is amusing to watch how a passion will grow upon a man. During <DATE_TIME> it was the ambition of my life to cover the country with rural letter-carriers. Even <PERSON> occasionally sensed the degree of his obsessiveness. After computing pi to 15 digits, he wrote in a letter to a friend: I am ashamed to tell you to how many figures I carried these computations, having no other business at the time. Incidentally, <PERSON> was also a compulsive calculator. As <PERSON> writes in his excellent biography: One <PERSON> scholar, <PERSON>, later told how <PERSON>'s research into number theory was often "preceded by a table of numerical results, carried usually to a length from which most of us would shrink." [7] Working to understand the natural world counts as creating rather than consuming. Newton tripped over this distinction when he chose to work on theology. His beliefs did not allow him to see it, but chasing down paradoxes in nature is fruitful in a way that chasing down paradoxes in sacred texts is not. [8] How much of people's propensity to become interested in a topic is inborn? My experience so far suggests the answer is: most of it. Different kids get interested in different things, and it's hard to make a child interested in something they wouldn't otherwise be. Not in a way that sticks. The most you can do on behalf of a topic is to make sure it gets a fair showing to make it clear to them, for example, that there's more to math than the dull drills they do in school. After that it's up to the child. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and my <DATE_TIME> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation Russian Translation Korean Translation Armenian Translation
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General and Surprising <DATE_TIME> The most valuable insights are both general and surprising. F = ma for example. But general and surprising is a hard combination to achieve. That territory tends to be picked clean, precisely because those insights are so valuable. Ordinarily, the best that people can do is one without the other: either surprising without being general (e.g. gossip), or general without being surprising (e.g. platitudes). Where things get interesting is the moderately valuable insights. You get those from small additions of whichever quality was missing. The more common case is a small addition of generality: a piece of gossip that's more than just gossip, because it teaches something interesting about the world. But another less common approach is to focus on the most general ideas and see if you can find something new to say about them. Because these start out so general, you only need a small delta of novelty to produce a useful insight. A small delta of novelty is all you'll be able to get most of the time. Which means if you take this route, your ideas will seem a lot like ones that already exist. Sometimes you'll find you've merely rediscovered an idea that did already exist. But don't be discouraged. Remember the huge multiplier that kicks in when you do manage to think of something even a little new. Corollary: the more general the ideas you're talking about, the less you should worry about repeating yourself. If you write enough, it's inevitable you will. Your brain is much the same from year to year and so are the stimuli that hit it. I feel slightly bad when I find I've said something close to what I've said before, as if I were plagiarizing myself. But rationally one shouldn't. You won't say something exactly the same way the second time, and that variation increases the chance you'll get that tiny but critical delta of novelty. And of course, ideas beget ideas. (That sounds familiar .) An idea with a small amount of novelty could lead to one with more. But only if you keep going. So it's doubly important not to let yourself be discouraged by people who say there's not much new about something you've discovered. "Not much new" is a real achievement when you're talking about the most general ideas. It's not true that there's nothing new under the sun. There are some domains where there's almost nothing new. But there's a big difference between nothing and almost nothing, when it's multiplied by the area under the sun. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <NRP> Translation
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Charisma / Power <DATE_TIME> People who are powerful but uncharismatic will tend to be disliked. Their power makes them a target for criticism that they don't have the charisma to disarm. That was <PERSON> problem. It also tends to be a problem for any CEO who is more of a builder than a schmoozer. And yet the builder-type CEO is (like <PERSON>) probably the best person for the job. I don't think there is any solution to this problem. It's human nature. The best we can do is to recognize that it's happening, and to understand that being a magnet for criticism is sometimes a sign not that someone is the wrong person for a job, but that they're the right one.
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The Risk of Discovery <DATE_TIME> Because biographies of famous scientists tend to edit out their mistakes, we underestimate the degree of risk they were willing to take. And because anything a famous scientist did that wasn't a mistake has probably now become the conventional wisdom, those choices don't seem risky either. Biographies of <LOCATION>, for example, understandably focus more on physics than alchemy or theology. The impression we get is that his unerring judgment led him straight to truths no one else had noticed. How to explain all the time he spent on alchemy and theology? Well, smart people are often kind of crazy. But maybe there is a simpler explanation. Maybe the smartness and the craziness were not as separate as we think. Physics seems to us a promising thing to work on, and alchemy and theology obvious wastes of time. But that's because we know how things turned out. In <LOCATION>'s day the three problems seemed roughly equally promising. No one knew yet what the payoff would be for inventing what we now call physics; if they had, more people would have been working on it. And alchemy and theology were still then in the category <PERSON> would describe as "huge, if true." Newton made three bets. One of them worked. But they were all risky. <NRP> Translation
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How to Make Pittsburgh a Startup Hub <DATE_TIME> (This is a talk I gave at an event called Opt412 in <LOCATION>. Much of it will apply to other towns. But not all, because as I say in the talk, <LOCATION> has some important advantages over most would-be startup hubs.) What would it take to make <LOCATION> into a startup hub, like <LOCATION>? I understand <LOCATION> pretty well, because I grew up here, in <LOCATION>. And I understand <LOCATION> pretty well because that's where I live now. Could you get that kind of startup ecosystem going here? When I agreed to speak here, I didn't think I'd be able to give a very optimistic talk. I thought I'd be talking about what <LOCATION> could do to become a startup hub, very much in the subjunctive. Instead I'm going to talk about what <LOCATION> can do. What changed my mind was an article I read in, of all places, the New York Times food section. The title was " <LOCATION>'s Youth-Driven Food Boom ." To most people that might not even sound interesting, let alone something related to startups. But it was electrifying to me to read that title. I don't think I could pick a more promising one if I tried. And when I read the article I got even more excited. It said "people <DATE_TIME> now make up 7.6 percent of all residents, up from 7 percent <DATE_TIME>." Wow, I thought, <LOCATION> could be the next <LOCATION>. It could become the cool place all the people in their twenties want to go live. When I got here <DATE_TIME>, I could feel the difference. I lived here from <DATE_TIME>. I didn't realize it at the time, but during that whole period the city was in free fall. On top of the flight to the suburbs that happened everywhere, the steel and nuclear businesses were both dying. Boy are things different now. It's not just that downtown seems a lot more prosperous. There is an energy here that was not here when I was a kid. When I was a kid, this was a place young people left. Now it's a place that attracts them. What does that have to do with startups? Startups are made of people, and the average age of the people in a typical startup is right in that 25 to 29 bracket. I've seen how powerful it is for a city to have those people. <DATE_TIME> they shifted the center of gravity of <LOCATION> from the peninsula to <LOCATION>. Google and Facebook are on the peninsula, but the next generation of big winners are all in <LOCATION>. The reason the center of gravity shifted was the talent war, for programmers especially. Most <DATE_TIME> want to live in the city, not down in the boring suburbs. So whether they like it or not, founders know they have to be in the city. I know multiple founders who would have preferred to live down in the <LOCATION> proper, but who made themselves move to <LOCATION> because they knew otherwise they'd lose the talent war. So being a magnet for people in their twenties is a very promising thing to be. It's hard to imagine a place becoming a startup hub without also being that. When I read that statistic about the increasing percentage of <DATE_TIME>, I had exactly the same feeling of excitement I get when I see a startup's graphs start to creep upward off the x axis. Nationally the percentage of <DATE_TIME> is 6.8%. That means you're .8% ahead. The population is 306,000, so we're talking about a surplus of about 2500 people. That's the population of a small town, and that's just the surplus. So you have a toehold. Now you just have to expand it. And though "youth-driven food boom" may sound frivolous, it is anything but. Restaurants and cafes are a big part of the personality of a city. Imagine walking down a street in <LOCATION>. What are you walking past? Little restaurants and cafes. Imagine driving through some depressing random exurb. What are you driving past? Starbucks and McDonalds and Pizza Hut. As <PERSON> said, there is no there there. You could be anywhere. These independent restaurants and cafes are not just feeding people. They're making there be a there here. So here is my first concrete recommendation for turning <LOCATION> into the next <LOCATION>: do everything you can to encourage this youth-driven food boom. What could the city do? Treat the people starting these little restaurants and cafes as your users, and go ask them what they want. I can guess at least one thing they might want: a fast permit process. <LOCATION> has left you a huge amount of room to beat them in that department. I know restaurants aren't the prime mover though. The prime mover, as the Times article said, is cheap housing. That's a big advantage. But that phrase "cheap housing" is a bit misleading. There are plenty of places that are cheaper. What's special about <LOCATION> is not that it's cheap, but that it's a cheap place you'd actually want to live. Part of that is the buildings themselves. I realized a long time ago, back when I was a poor twenty-something myself, that the best deals were places that had once been rich, and then became poor. If a place has always been rich, it's nice but too expensive. If a place has always been poor, it's cheap but grim. But if a place was once rich and then got poor, you can find palaces for cheap. And that's what's bringing people here. When <LOCATION> was rich, <DATE_TIME>, the people who lived here built big solid buildings. Not always in the best taste, but definitely solid. So here is another piece of advice for becoming a startup hub: don't destroy the buildings that are bringing people here. When cities are on the way back up, like <LOCATION> is now, developers race to tear down the old buildings. Don't let that happen. Focus on historic preservation. Big real estate development projects are not what's bringing the twenty-somethings here. They're the opposite of the new restaurants and cafes; they subtract personality from the city. The empirical evidence suggests you cannot be too strict about historic preservation. The tougher cities are about it, the better they seem to do. But the appeal of <LOCATION> is not just the buildings themselves. It's the neighborhoods they're in. Like <LOCATION> and <LOCATION>, <LOCATION> is fortunate in being a pre-car city. It's not too spread out. Because those <DATE_TIME> do not like driving. They prefer walking, or bicycling, or taking public transport. If you've been to <LOCATION> recently you can't help noticing the huge number of bicyclists. And this is not just a fad that the twenty-somethings have adopted. In this respect they have discovered a better way to live. The beards will go, but not the bikes. Cities where you can get around without driving are just better period. So I would suggest you do everything you can to capitalize on this. As with historic preservation, it seems impossible to go too far. Why not make <LOCATION> the most bicycle and pedestrian friendly city in the country? See if you can go so far that you make <LOCATION> seem backward by comparison. If you do, it's very unlikely you'll regret it. The city will seem like a paradise to the young people you want to attract. If they do leave to get jobs elsewhere, it will be with regret at leaving behind such a place. And what's the downside? Can you imagine a headline "City ruined by becoming too bicycle-friendly?" It just doesn't happen. So suppose cool old neighborhoods and cool little restaurants make this the next <LOCATION>. Will that be enough? It will put you in a way better position than <LOCATION> itself, because <LOCATION> has something <LOCATION> lacks: a first-rate research university. CMU plus little cafes means you have more than hipsters drinking lattes. It means you have hipsters drinking lattes while talking about distributed systems. Now you're getting really close to <LOCATION>. In fact you're better off than <LOCATION> in one way, because CMU is downtown, but Stanford and <LOCATION> are out in the suburbs. What can CMU do to help <LOCATION> become a startup hub? Be an even better research university. CMU is one of the best universities in the world, but imagine what things would be like if it were the very best, and everyone knew it. There are a lot of ambitious people who must go to the best place, wherever it is. If CMU were it, they would all come here. There would be kids in <LOCATION> dreaming of <DATE_TIME> living in <LOCATION>. Being that kind of talent magnet is the most important contribution universities can make toward making their city a startup hub. In fact it is practically the only contribution they can make. But wait, shouldn't universities be setting up programs with words like "innovation" and "entrepreneurship" in their names? No, they should not. These kind of things almost always turn out to be disappointments. They're pursuing the wrong targets. The way to get innovation is not to aim for innovation but to aim for something more specific, like better batteries or better 3D printing. And the way to learn about entrepreneurship is to do it, which you can't in school . I know it may disappoint some administrators to hear that the best thing a university can do to encourage startups is to be a great university. It's like telling people who want to lose weight that the way to do it is to eat less. But if you want to know where startups come from, look at the empirical evidence. Look at the histories of the most successful startups, and you'll find they grow organically out of a couple of founders building something that starts as an interesting side project. Universities are great at bringing together founders, but beyond that the best thing they can do is get out of the way. For example, by not claiming ownership of "intellectual property" that students and faculty develop, and by having liberal rules about deferred admission and leaves of absence. In fact, one of the most effective things a university could do to encourage startups is an elaborate form of getting out of the way invented by Harvard. Harvard used to have exams for <DATE_TIME> after <DATE_TIME>. At <DATE_TIME> they had something called "Reading Period" when you were supposed to be studying for exams. And Microsoft and Facebook have something in common that few people realize: they were both started during Reading Period. It's the perfect situation for producing the sort of side projects that turn into startups. The students are all on campus, but they don't have to do anything because they're supposed to be studying for exams. Harvard may have closed this window, because <DATE_TIME> they moved exams before <DATE_TIME> and shortened reading period from <DATE_TIME> to 7. But if a university really wanted to help its students start startups, the empirical evidence, weighted by market cap, suggests the best thing they can do is literally nothing. The culture of <LOCATION> is another of its strengths. It seems like a city has to be socially liberal to be a startup hub, and it's pretty clear why. A city has to tolerate strangeness to be a home for startups, because startups are so strange. And you can't choose to allow just the forms of strangeness that will turn into big startups, because they're all intermingled. You have to tolerate all strangeness. That immediately rules out big chunks of the <LOCATION> . I'm optimistic it doesn't rule out <LOCATION>. One of the things I remember from growing up here, though I didn't realize at the time that there was anything unusual about it, is how well people got along. I'm still not sure why. Maybe one reason was that everyone felt like an immigrant. When I was a kid in <LOCATION>, people didn't call themselves <NRP>. They called themselves <NRP> or <NRP> or <NRP>. Just imagine what it must have been like here <DATE_TIME>, when people were pouring in from twenty different countries. Tolerance was the only option. What I remember about the culture of <LOCATION> is that it was both tolerant and pragmatic. That's how I'd describe the culture of <LOCATION> too. And it's not a coincidence, because <LOCATION> was <LOCATION> of its time. This was a city where people built new things. And while the things people build have changed, the spirit you need to do that kind of work is the same. So although an influx of latte-swilling hipsters may be annoying in some ways, I would go out of my way to encourage them. And more generally to tolerate strangeness, even unto the degree wacko <NRP> do. For <LOCATION> that is a conservative choice: it's a return to the city's roots. Unfortunately I saved the toughest part for last. There is one more thing you need to be a startup hub, and <LOCATION> hasn't got it: investors. <LOCATION> has a big investor community because it's had <DATE_TIME> to grow one. <LOCATION> has a big investor community because it's full of people who like money a lot and are quick to notice new ways to get it. But <LOCATION> has neither of these. And the cheap housing that draws other people here has no effect on investors. If an investor community grows up here, it will happen the same way it did in <LOCATION>: slowly and organically. So I would not bet on having a big investor community in the short term. But fortunately there are three trends that make that less necessary than it used to be. One is that startups are increasingly cheap to start, so you just don't need as much outside money as you used to. The second is that thanks to things like Kickstarter, a startup can get to revenue faster. You can put something on <LOCATION> from anywhere. The third is programs like Y Combinator. A startup from anywhere in the world can go to YC for <DATE_TIME>, pick up funding, and then return home if they want. My advice is to make <LOCATION> a great place for startups, and gradually more of them will stick. Some of those will succeed; some of their founders will become investors; and still more startups will stick. This is not a fast path to becoming a startup hub. But it is at least a path, which is something few other cities have. And it's not as if you have to make painful sacrifices in the meantime. Think about what I've suggested you should do. Encourage local restaurants, save old buildings, take advantage of density, make CMU the best, promote tolerance. These are the things that make <LOCATION> good to live in now. All I'm saying is that you should do even more of them. And that's an encouraging thought. If <LOCATION>'s path to becoming a startup hub is to be even more itself, then it has a good chance of succeeding. In fact it probably has the best chance of any city its size. It will take some effort, and a lot of time, but if any city can do it, <LOCATION> can. Thanks to <PERSON> and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this, and to <PERSON> for organizing Opt412 and inviting me to speak.
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Economic Inequality <DATE_TIME>, economic inequality in the <LOCATION> has increased dramatically. And in particular, the rich have gotten a lot richer. Nearly everyone who writes about the topic says that economic inequality should be decreased. I'm interested in this question because I was one of the founders of a company called Y Combinator that helps people start startups. Almost by definition, if a startup succeeds, its founders become rich. Which means by helping startup founders I've been helping to increase economic inequality. If economic inequality should be decreased, I shouldn't be helping founders. No one should be. But that doesn't sound right. What's going on here? What's going on is that while economic inequality is a single measure (or more precisely, two: variation in income, and variation in wealth), it has multiple causes. Many of these causes are bad, like tax loopholes and drug addiction. But some are good, like <PERSON> and <PERSON> starting the company you use to find things online. If you want to understand economic inequality - and more importantly, if you actually want to fix the bad aspects of it - you have to tease apart the components. And yet the trend in nearly everything written about the subject is to do the opposite: to squash together all the aspects of economic inequality as if it were a single phenomenon. Sometimes this is done for ideological reasons. Sometimes it's because the writer only has very high-level data and so draws conclusions from that, like the proverbial drunk who looks for his keys under the lamppost, instead of where he dropped them, because the light is better there. Sometimes it's because the writer doesn't understand critical aspects of inequality, like the role of technology in wealth creation. Much of the time, perhaps most of the time, writing about economic inequality combines all three. ___ The most common mistake people make about economic inequality is to treat it as a single phenomenon. The most naive version of which is the one based on the pie fallacy: that the rich get rich by taking money from the poor. Usually this is an assumption people start from rather than a conclusion they arrive at by examining the evidence. Sometimes the pie fallacy is stated explicitly: <URL>ose at the top are grabbing an increasing fraction of the nation's income - so much of a larger share that what's left over for the rest is diminished.... [ 1 ] Other times it's more unconscious. But the unconscious form is very widespread. I think because we grow up in a world where the pie fallacy is actually true. To kids, wealth is a fixed pie that's shared out, and if one person gets more, it's at the expense of another. It takes a conscious effort to remind oneself that the real world doesn't work that way. In the real world you can create wealth as well as taking it from others. A woodworker creates wealth. He makes a chair, and you willingly give him money in return for it. A high-frequency trader does not. He makes a dollar only when someone on the other end of a trade loses a dollar. If the rich people in a society got that way by taking wealth from the poor, then you have the degenerate case of economic inequality, where the cause of poverty is the same as the cause of wealth. But instances of inequality don't have to be instances of the degenerate case. If one woodworker makes 5 chairs and another makes none, the second woodworker will have less money, but not because anyone took anything from him. Even people sophisticated enough to know about the pie fallacy are led toward it by the custom of describing economic inequality as a ratio of one quantile's income or wealth to another's. It's so easy to slip from talking about income shifting from one quantile to another, as a figure of speech, into believing that is literally what's happening. Except in the degenerate case, economic inequality can't be described by a ratio or even a curve. In the general case it consists of multiple ways people become poor, and multiple ways people become rich. Which means to understand economic inequality in a country, you have to go find individual people who are poor or rich and figure out why. [ 2 ] If you want to understand change in economic inequality, you should ask what those people would have done when it was different. This is one way I know the rich aren't all getting richer simply from some new system for transferring wealth to them from everyone else. When you use the would-have method with startup founders, you find what most would have done back in <DATE_TIME> , when economic inequality was lower, was to join big companies or become professors. Before <PERSON> started Facebook, his default expectation was that he'd end up working at Microsoft. The reason he and most other startup founders are richer than they would have been in <DATE_TIME> is not because of some right turn the country took during the <PERSON> administration, but because progress in technology has made it much easier to start a new company that grows fast . Traditional economists seem strangely averse to studying individual humans. It seems to be a rule with them that everything has to start with statistics. So they give you very precise numbers about variation in wealth and income, then follow it with the most naive speculation about the underlying causes. But while there are a lot of people who get rich through rent-seeking of various forms, and a lot who get rich by playing zero-sum games, there are also a significant number who get rich by creating wealth. And creating wealth, as a source of economic inequality, is different from taking it - not just morally, but also practically, in the sense that it is harder to eradicate. One reason is that variation in productivity is accelerating. The rate at which individuals can create wealth depends on the technology available to them, and that grows exponentially. The other reason creating wealth is such a tenacious source of inequality is that it can expand to accommodate a lot of people. ___ I'm all for shutting down the crooked ways to get rich. But that won't eliminate great variations in wealth, because as long as you leave open the option of getting rich by creating wealth, people who want to get rich will do that instead. Most people who get rich tend to be fairly driven. Whatever their other flaws, laziness is usually not one of them. Suppose new policies make it hard to make a fortune in finance. Does it seem plausible that the people who currently go into finance to make their fortunes will continue to do so, but be content to work for ordinary salaries? The reason they go into finance is not because they love finance but because they want to get rich. If the only way left to get rich is to start startups, they'll start startups. They'll do well at it too, because determination is the main factor in the success of a startup. [ 3 ] And while it would probably be a good thing for the world if people who wanted to get rich switched from playing zero-sum games to creating wealth, that would not only not eliminate great variations in wealth, but might even exacerbate them. In a zero-sum game there is at least a limit to the upside. Plus a lot of the new startups would create new technology that further accelerated variation in productivity. Variation in productivity is far from the only source of economic inequality, but it is the irreducible core of it, in the sense that you'll have that left when you eliminate all other sources. And if you do, that core will be big, because it will have expanded to include the efforts of all the refugees. Plus it will have a large Baumol penumbra around it: anyone who could get rich by creating wealth on their own account will have to be paid enough to prevent them from doing it. You can't prevent great variations in wealth without preventing people from getting rich, and you can't do that without preventing them from starting startups. So let's be clear about that. Eliminating great variations in wealth would mean eliminating startups. And that doesn't seem a wise move. Especially since it would only mean you eliminated startups in your own country. Ambitious people already move halfway around the world to further their careers, and startups can operate from anywhere nowadays. So if you made it impossible to get rich by creating wealth in your country, people who wanted to do that would just leave and do it somewhere else. Which would certainly get you a lower <PERSON> coefficient, along with a lesson in being careful what you ask for. [ 4 ] I think rising economic inequality is the inevitable fate of countries that don't choose something worse. We had a <DATE_TIME> stretch in <DATE_TIME> that convinced some people otherwise. But as I explained in The Refragmentation , that was an anomaly - a unique combination of circumstances that compressed <NRP> society not just economically but culturally too. [ 5 ] And while some of the growth in economic inequality we've seen since then has been due to bad behavior of various kinds, there has simultaneously been a huge increase in individuals' ability to create wealth. Startups are almost entirely a product of this period. And even within the startup world, there has been a qualitative change in <DATE_TIME>. Technology has decreased the cost of starting a startup so much that founders now have the upper hand over investors. Founders get less diluted, and it is now common for them to retain board control as well. Both further increase economic inequality, the former because founders own more stock, and the latter because, as investors have learned, founders tend to be better at running their companies than investors. While the surface manifestations change, the underlying forces are very, very old. The acceleration of productivity we see in <LOCATION> has been happening for <DATE_TIME>. If you look at the history of stone tools, technology was already accelerating in the Mesolithic. The acceleration would have been too slow to perceive in one lifetime. Such is the nature of the leftmost part of an exponential curve. But it was the same curve. You do not want to design your society in a way that's incompatible with this curve. The evolution of technology is one of the most powerful forces in history. <PERSON> said "We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." That sounds plausible. But if I have to choose between ignoring him and ignoring an exponential curve that has been operating for <DATE_TIME>, I'll bet on the curve. Ignoring any trend that has been operating for <DATE_TIME> is dangerous. But exponential growth, especially, tends to bite you. ___ If accelerating variation in productivity is always going to produce some baseline growth in economic inequality, it would be a good idea to spend some time thinking about that future. Can you have a healthy society with great variation in wealth? What would it look like? Notice how novel it feels to think about that. The public conversation so far has been exclusively about the need to decrease economic inequality. We've barely given a thought to how to live with it. I'm hopeful we'll be able to. <PERSON> was a product of the Gilded Age, and things have changed since then. It's harder to hide wrongdoing now. And to get rich now you don't have to buy politicians the way railroad or oil magnates did. [ 6 ] The great concentrations of wealth I see around me in <LOCATION> don't seem to be destroying democracy. There are lots of things wrong with the <LOCATION> that have economic inequality as a symptom. We should fix those things. In the process we may decrease economic inequality. But we can't start from the symptom and hope to fix the underlying causes. [ 7 ] The most obvious is poverty. I'm sure most of those who want to decrease economic inequality want to do it mainly to help the poor, not to hurt the rich. [ 8 ] Indeed, a good number are merely being sloppy by speaking of decreasing economic inequality when what they mean is decreasing poverty. But this is a situation where it would be good to be precise about what we want. Poverty and economic inequality are not identical. When the city is turning off your water because you can't pay the bill, it doesn't make any difference what <PERSON> net worth is compared to yours. He might only be a few times richer than you, and it would still be just as much of a problem that your water was getting turned off. Closely related to poverty is lack of social mobility. I've seen this myself: you don't have to grow up rich or even upper middle class to get rich as a startup founder, but few successful founders grew up desperately poor. But again, the problem here is not simply economic inequality. There is an enormous difference in wealth between the household <PERSON> grew up in and that of a successful startup founder, but that didn't prevent him from joining their ranks. It's not economic inequality per se that's blocking social mobility, but some specific combination of things that go wrong when kids grow up sufficiently poor. One of the most important principles in <LOCATION> is that "you make what you measure." It means that if you pick some number to focus on, it will tend to improve, but that you have to choose the right number, because only the one you choose will improve; another that seems conceptually adjacent might not. For example, if you're a university president and you decide to focus on graduation rates, then you'll improve graduation rates. But only graduation rates, not how much students learn. Students could learn less, if to improve graduation rates you made classes easier. Economic inequality is sufficiently far from identical with the various problems that have it as a symptom that we'll probably only hit whichever of the two we aim at. If we aim at economic inequality, we won't fix these problems. So I say let's aim at the problems. For example, let's attack poverty, and if necessary damage wealth in the process. That's much more likely to work than attacking wealth in the hope that you will thereby fix poverty. [ 9 ] And if there are people getting rich by tricking consumers or lobbying the government for anti-competitive regulations or tax loopholes, then let's stop them. Not because it's causing economic inequality, but because it's stealing. [ 10 ] If all you have is statistics, it seems like that's what you need to fix. But behind a broad statistical measure like economic inequality there are some things that are good and some that are bad, some that are historical trends with immense momentum and others that are random accidents. If we want to fix the world behind the statistics, we have to understand it, and focus our efforts where they'll do the most good. Notes [ 1 ] <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The Price of Inequality . Norton, <DATE_TIME>. p. 32. [ 2 ] Particularly since economic inequality is a matter of outliers, and outliers are disproportionately likely to have gotten where they are by ways that have little do with the sort of things economists usually think about, like wages and productivity, but rather by, say, ending up on the wrong side of the "War on Drugs." [ 3 ] Determination is the most important factor in deciding between success and failure, which in startups tend to be sharply differentiated. But it takes more than determination to create one of the hugely successful startups. Though most founders start out excited about the idea of getting rich, purely mercenary founders will usually take one of the big acquisition offers most successful startups get on the way up. The founders who go on to the next stage tend to be driven by a sense of mission. They have the same attachment to their companies that an artist or writer has to their work. But it is very hard to predict at the outset which founders will do that. It's not simply a function of their initial attitude. Starting a company changes people. [ 4 ] After reading a draft of this essay, <PERSON> told me how he had once talked to a group of <NRP> "who said they wanted to make <LOCATION> more entrepreneurial and more like <LOCATION>. I said by definition this will give you more inequality. They thought I was insane - they could not process it." [ 5 ] Economic inequality has been decreasing globally. But this is mainly due to the erosion of the kleptocracies that formerly dominated all the poorer countries. Once the playing field is leveler politically, we'll see economic inequality start to rise again. The <LOCATION> is the bellwether. The situation we face here, the rest of the world will sooner or later. [ 6 ] Some people still get rich by buying politicians. My point is that it's no longer a precondition. [ 7 ] As well as problems that have economic inequality as a symptom, there are those that have it as a cause. But in most if not all, economic inequality is not the primary cause. There is usually some injustice that is allowing economic inequality to turn into other forms of inequality, and that injustice is what we need to fix. For example, the police in the <LOCATION> treat the poor worse than the rich. But the solution is not to make people richer. It's to make the police treat people more equitably. Otherwise they'll continue to maltreat people who are weak in other ways. [ 8 ] Some who read this essay will say that I'm clueless or even being deliberately misleading by focusing so much on the richer end of economic inequality - that economic inequality is really about poverty. But that is exactly the point I'm making, though sloppier language than I'd use to make it. The real problem is poverty, not economic inequality. And if you conflate them you're aiming at the wrong target. Others will say I'm clueless or being misleading by focusing on people who get rich by creating wealth - that startups aren't the problem, but corrupt practices in finance, healthcare, and so on. Once again, that is exactly my point. The problem is not economic inequality, but those specific abuses. It's a strange task to write an essay about why something isn't the problem, but that's the situation you find yourself in when so many people mistakenly think it is. [ 9 ] Particularly since many causes of poverty are only partially driven by people trying to make money from them. For example, <LOCATION>'s abnormally high incarceration rate is a major cause of poverty. But although for-profit prison companies and prison guard unions both spend a lot lobbying for harsh sentencing laws, they are not the original source of them. [ 10 ] Incidentally, tax loopholes are definitely not a product of some power shift due to recent increases in economic inequality. The golden age of economic equality in <DATE_TIME> was also the golden age of tax avoidance. Indeed, it was so widespread and so effective that I'm skeptical whether economic inequality was really so low then as we think. In a period when people are trying to hide wealth from the government, it will tend to be hidden from statistics too. One sign of the potential magnitude of the problem is the discrepancy between government receipts as a percentage of GDP, which have remained more or less constant during the entire period from the end of World War II to the present, and tax rates, which have varied dramatically. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. Note: This is a new version from which I removed a pair of metaphors that made a lot of people mad, essentially by macroexpanding them. If anyone wants to see the old version, I put it here . Related: The Short Version A Reply to <PERSON> A Reply to <PERSON> French Translation
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The Refragmentation January 2016 One advantage of being old is that you can see change happen in your lifetime. A lot of the change I've seen is fragmentation. <LOCATION> politics is much more polarized than it used to be. Culturally we have ever less common ground. The creative class flocks to a handful of happy cities, abandoning the rest. And increasing economic inequality means the spread between rich and poor is growing too. I'd like to propose a hypothesis: that all these trends are instances of the same phenomenon. And moreover, that the cause is not some force that's pulling us apart, but rather the erosion of forces that had been pushing us together. Worse still, for those who worry about these trends, the forces that were pushing us together were an anomaly, a one-time combination of circumstances that's unlikely to be repeated - and indeed, that we would not want to repeat. The two forces were war (above all World War II), and the rise of large corporations. The effects of World War II were both economic and social. Economically, it decreased variation in income. Like all modern armed forces, <LOCATION>'s were socialist economically. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need. More or less. Higher ranking members of the military got more (as higher ranking members of socialist societies always do), but what they got was fixed according to their rank. And the flattening effect wasn't limited to those under arms, because the <LOCATION> economy was conscripted too. <DATE_TIME> all wages were set by the National War Labor Board. Like the military, they defaulted to flatness. And this national standardization of wages was so pervasive that its effects could still be <DATE_TIME> after the war ended. [ 1 ] Business owners weren't supposed to be making money either. <PERSON> said "not a single war millionaire" would be permitted. To ensure that, any increase in a company's profits over prewar levels was taxed at 85%. And when what was left after corporate taxes reached individuals, it was taxed again at a marginal rate of 93%. [ 2 ] Socially too the war tended to decrease variation. Over 16 million men and women from all sorts of different backgrounds were brought together in a way of life that was literally uniform. Service rates for men born in <DATE_TIME> approached 80%. And working toward a common goal, often under stress, brought them still closer together. Though strictly speaking World War II lasted <DATE_TIME> for the <LOCATION>, its effects lasted longer. Wars make central governments more powerful, and World War II was an extreme case of this. In the <LOCATION>, as in all the other Allied countries, the federal government was slow to give up the new powers it had acquired. Indeed, in some respects the war didn't end in <DATE_TIME>; the enemy just switched to <LOCATION>. In tax rates, federal power, defense spending, conscription, and nationalism, <DATE_TIME> after the war looked more like wartime than prewar peacetime. [ 3 ] And the social effects lasted too. The kid pulled into the army from behind a mule team in <LOCATION> didn't simply go back to the farm afterward. Something else was waiting for him, something that looked a lot like the army. If total war was the big political story of <DATE_TIME>, the big economic story was the rise of a new kind of company. And this too tended to produce both social and economic cohesion. [ 4 ] <DATE_TIME> was <DATE_TIME> of the big, national corporation. General Electric, General Foods, General Motors. Developments in finance, communications, transportation, and manufacturing enabled a new type of company whose goal was above all scale. Version 1 of this world was low-res: a Duplo world of a few giant companies dominating each big market. [ 5 ] The late 19th and <DATE_TIME> had been a time of consolidation, led especially by <PERSON>. Thousands of companies run by their founders were merged into a couple hundred giant ones run by professional managers. Economies of scale ruled <DATE_TIME>. It seemed to people at the time that this was the final state of things. <PERSON> said in <DATE_TIME> of combination is here to stay. Individualism has gone, never to return. He turned out to be mistaken, but he seemed right for <DATE_TIME>. The consolidation that began in <DATE_TIME> continued for most of <DATE_TIME>. By <DATE_TIME> World War II, as <PERSON> writes, "the major sectors of the economy were either organized as government-backed cartels or dominated by a few oligopolistic corporations." For consumers this new world meant the same choices everywhere, but only a few of them. When I grew up there were only 2 or 3 of most things, and since they were all aiming at the middle of the market there wasn't much to differentiate them. One of the most important instances of this phenomenon was in TV. Here there were 3 choices: NBC, CBS, and ABC. Plus public TV for eggheads and communists. The programs that the 3 networks offered were indistinguishable. In fact, here there was a triple pressure toward the center. If one show did try something daring, local affiliates in conservative markets would make them stop. Plus since TVs were expensive, whole families watched the same shows together, so they had to be suitable for everyone. And not only did everyone get the same thing, they got it at the same time. It's difficult to imagine now, but <DATE_TIME> tens of millions of families would sit down together in front of their TV set watching the same show, at the same time, as their next door neighbors. What happens now with the Super Bowl used to happen every night. We were literally in sync. [ 6 ] In a way <DATE_TIME> TV culture was good. The view it gave of the world was like you'd find in a children's book, and it probably had something of the effect that (parents hope) children's books have in making people behave better. But, like children's books, TV was also misleading. Dangerously misleading, for adults. In his autobiography, <PERSON> talks of seeing gruesome images that had just come in from <LOCATION> and thinking, we can't show these to families while they're having dinner. I know how pervasive the common culture was, because I tried to opt out of it, and it was practically impossible to find alternatives. When I was <DATE_TIME> I realized, more from internal evidence than any outside source, that the ideas we were being fed on TV were crap, and I stopped watching it. [ 7 ] But it wasn't just TV. It seemed like everything around me was crap. The politicians all saying the same things, the consumer brands making almost identical products with different labels stuck on to indicate how prestigious they were meant to be, the balloon-frame houses with fake "colonial" skins, the cars with several feet of gratuitous metal on each end that started to fall apart after <DATE_TIME>, the "red delicious" apples that were red but only nominally apples. And in retrospect, it was crap. [ 8 ] But when I went looking for alternatives to fill this void, I found practically nothing. There was no Internet then. The only place to look was in the chain bookstore in our local shopping mall. [ 9 ] There I found a copy of The <LOCATION> . I wish I could say it became a gateway into a wider world, but in fact I found it boring and incomprehensible. Like a kid tasting whisky for the first time and pretending to like it, I preserved that magazine as carefully as if it had been a book. I'm sure I still have it somewhere. But though it was evidence that there was, somewhere, a world that wasn't red delicious, I didn't find it till college. It wasn't just as consumers that the big companies made us similar. They did as employers too. Within companies there were powerful forces pushing people toward a single model of how to look and act. IBM was particularly notorious for this, but they were only a little more extreme than other big companies. And the models of how to look and act varied little between companies. Meaning everyone within this world was expected to seem more or less the same. And not just those in the corporate world, but also everyone who aspired to it - which in <DATE_TIME> meant most people who weren't already in it. For most of <DATE_TIME>, working-class people tried hard to look middle class. You can see it in old photos. Few adults aspired to look dangerous in <DATE_TIME>. But the rise of national corporations didn't just compress us culturally. It compressed us economically too, and on both ends. Along with giant national corporations, we got giant national labor unions. And in <DATE_TIME> the corporations cut deals with the unions where they paid over market price for labor. Partly because the unions were monopolies. [ 10 ] Partly because, as components of oligopolies themselves, the corporations knew they could safely pass the cost on to their customers, because their competitors would have to as well. And partly because in <DATE_TIME> most of the giant companies were still focused on finding new ways to milk economies of scale. Just as startups rightly pay AWS a premium over the cost of running their own servers so they can focus on growth, many of the big national corporations were willing to pay a premium for labor. [ 11 ] As well as pushing incomes up from the bottom, by overpaying unions, the big companies of <DATE_TIME> also pushed incomes down at the top, by underpaying their top management. Economist <PERSON> wrote in <DATE_TIME> that "There are few corporations in which it would be suggested that executive salaries are at a maximum." [ 12 ] To some extent this was an illusion. Much of the de facto pay of executives never showed up on their income tax returns, because it took the form of perks. The higher the rate of income tax, the more pressure there was to pay employees upstream of it. (In the <LOCATION>, where taxes were even higher than in the <LOCATION>, companies would even pay their kids' private school tuitions.) One of the most valuable things the big companies of <DATE_TIME> gave their employees was job security, and this too didn't show up in tax returns or income statistics. So the nature of employment in these organizations tended to yield falsely low numbers about economic inequality. But even accounting for that, the big companies paid their best people less than market price. There was no market; the expectation was that you'd work for the same company for <DATE_TIME> if not your whole career. [ 13 ] Your work was so illiquid there was little chance of getting market price. But that same illiquidity also encouraged you not to seek it. If the company promised to employ you till you retired and give you a pension afterward, you didn't want to extract as much from it <DATE_TIME> as you could. You needed to take care of the company so it could take care of you. Especially when you'd been working with the same group of people for <DATE_TIME>. If you tried to squeeze the company for more money, you were squeezing the organization that was going to take care of them . Plus if you didn't put the company first you wouldn't be promoted, and if you couldn't switch ladders, promotion on this one was the only way up. [ 14 ] To someone who'd spent <DATE_TIME> in the armed forces, this situation didn't seem as strange as it does to us now. From their point of view, as big company executives, they were high-ranking officers. They got paid a lot more than privates. They got to have expense account lunches at the best restaurants and fly around on the company's Gulfstreams. It probably didn't occur to most of them to ask if they were being paid market price. The ultimate way to get market price is to work for yourself, by starting your own company. That seems obvious to any ambitious person now. But in <DATE_TIME> it was an alien concept. Not because starting one's own company seemed too ambitious, but because it didn't seem ambitious enough. Even as late as the 1970s, when I grew up, the ambitious plan was to get lots of education at prestigious institutions, and then join some other prestigious institution and work one's way up the hierarchy. Your prestige was the prestige of the institution you belonged to. People did start their own businesses of course, but educated people rarely did, because in <DATE_TIME> there was practically zero concept of starting what we now call a startup : a business that starts small and grows big. That was much harder to do in <DATE_TIME>. Starting one's own business meant starting a business that would start small and stay small. Which in <DATE_TIME> of big companies often meant scurrying around trying to avoid being trampled by elephants. It was more prestigious to be one of the executive class riding the elephant. By <DATE_TIME>, no one stopped to wonder where the big prestigious companies had come from in the first place. It seemed like they'd always been there, like the chemical elements. And indeed, there was a double wall between ambitious kids in <DATE_TIME> and the origins of the big companies. Many of the big companies were roll-ups that didn't have clear founders. And when they did, the founders didn't seem like us. Nearly all of them had been uneducated, in the sense of not having been to college. They were what <PERSON> called rude mechanicals. College trained one to be a member of the professional classes. Its graduates didn't expect to do the sort of grubby menial work that <PERSON> or <PERSON> started out doing. [ 15 ] And in <DATE_TIME> there were more and more college graduates. They increased from about 2% of the population in <DATE_TIME> to about 25% in <DATE_TIME>. In <DATE_TIME> our two big forces intersect, in the form of the GI Bill, which sent 2.2 million World War II veterans to college. Few thought of it in these terms, but the result of making college the canonical path for the ambitious was a world in which it was socially acceptable to work for <PERSON>, but not to be <PERSON>. [ 16 ] I remember this world well. I came of age just as it was starting to break up. In my childhood it was still dominant. Not quite so dominant as it had been. We could see from old TV shows and yearbooks and the way adults acted that people in <DATE_TIME> and 60s had been even more conformist than us. The <DATE_TIME> model was already starting to get old. But that was not how we saw it at the time. We would at most have said that one could be a bit more daring in <DATE_TIME> than <DATE_TIME>. And indeed, things hadn't changed much yet. But change was coming soon. And when the Duplo economy started to disintegrate, it disintegrated in several different ways at once. Vertically integrated companies literally dis-integrated because it was more efficient to. Incumbents faced new competitors as (a) markets went global and (b) technical innovation started to trump economies of scale, turning size from an asset into a liability. Smaller companies were increasingly able to survive as formerly narrow channels to consumers broadened. Markets themselves started to change faster, as whole new categories of products appeared. And last but not least, the federal government, which had previously smiled upon <PERSON> world as the natural state of things, began to realize it wasn't the last word after all. What <PERSON> was to the horizontal axis, <PERSON> was to the vertical. He wanted to do everything himself. The giant plant he built at <LOCATION> <DATE_TIME> literally took in iron ore at one end and sent cars out the other. 100,000 people worked there. At the time it seemed the future. But that is not how car companies operate <DATE_TIME>. Now much of the design and manufacturing happens in a long supply chain, whose products the car companies ultimately assemble and sell. The reason car companies operate this way is that it works better. Each company in the supply chain focuses on what they know best. And they each have to do it well or they can be swapped out for another supplier. Why didn't <PERSON> realize that networks of cooperating companies work better than a single big company? One reason is that supplier networks take a while to evolve. In <DATE_TIME>, doing everything himself seemed to Ford the only way to get the scale he needed. And the second reason is that if you want to solve a problem using a network of cooperating companies, you have to be able to coordinate their efforts, and you can do that much better with computers. Computers reduce the transaction costs that <NRP> argued are the raison d'etre of corporations. That is a fundamental change. In <DATE_TIME>, big companies were synonymous with efficiency. In <DATE_TIME> they were synonymous with inefficiency. To some extent this was because the companies themselves had become sclerotic. But it was also because our standards were higher. It wasn't just within existing industries that change occurred. The industries themselves changed. It became possible to make lots of new things, and sometimes the existing companies weren't the ones who did it best. Microcomputers are a classic example. The market was pioneered by upstarts like Apple. When it got big enough, IBM decided it was worth paying attention to. At the time IBM completely dominated the computer industry. They assumed that all they had to do, now that this market was ripe, was to reach out and pick it. Most people at the time would have agreed with them. But what happened next illustrated how much more complicated the world had become. IBM did launch a microcomputer. Though quite successful, it did not crush Apple. But even more importantly, IBM itself ended up being supplanted by a supplier coming in from the side - from software, which didn't even seem to be the same business. IBM's big mistake was to accept a non-exclusive license for DOS. It must have seemed a safe move at the time. No other computer manufacturer had ever been able to outsell them. What difference did it make if other manufacturers could offer DOS too? The result of that miscalculation was an explosion of inexpensive PC clones. Microsoft now owned the PC standard, and the customer. And the microcomputer business ended up being Apple vs Microsoft. Basically, Apple bumped IBM and then Microsoft stole its wallet. That sort of thing did not happen to big companies in <DATE_TIME>. But it was going to happen increasingly often in the future. Change happened mostly by itself in the computer business. In other industries, legal obstacles had to be removed first. Many of the <DATE_TIME> oligopolies had been anointed by the federal government with policies (and in wartime, large orders) that kept out competitors. This didn't seem as dubious to government officials at the time as it sounds to us. They felt a two-party system ensured sufficient competition in politics. It ought to work for business too. Gradually the government realized that anti-competitive policies were doing more harm than good, and during the <PERSON> administration it started to remove them. The word used for this process was misleadingly narrow: deregulation. What was really happening was de-oligopolization. It happened to one industry after another. Two of the most visible to consumers were air travel and long-distance phone service, which both became dramatically cheaper after deregulation. Deregulation also contributed to the wave of hostile takeovers in <DATE_TIME>. In <DATE_TIME> the only limit on the inefficiency of companies, short of actual bankruptcy, was the inefficiency of their competitors. Now companies had to face absolute rather than relative standards. Any public company that didn't generate sufficient returns on its assets risked having its management replaced with one that would. Often the new managers did this by breaking companies up into components that were more valuable separately. [ 17 ] Version 1 of the national economy consisted of a few big blocks whose relationships were negotiated in back rooms by a handful of executives, politicians, regulators, and labor leaders. Version 2 was higher resolution: there were more companies, of more different sizes, making more different things, and their relationships changed faster. In this world there were still plenty of back room negotiations, but more was left to market forces. Which further accelerated the fragmentation. It's a little misleading to talk of versions when describing a gradual process, but not as misleading as it might seem. There was a lot of change in <DATE_TIME>, and what we ended up with was qualitatively different. The companies in the S&P 500 in <DATE_TIME> had been there an average of <DATE_TIME>. By <DATE_TIME> that number was <DATE_TIME>. [ 18 ] The breakup of the Duplo economy happened simultaneously with the spread of computing power. To what extent were computers a precondition? It would take a book to answer that. Obviously the spread of computing power was a precondition for the rise of startups. I suspect it was for most of what happened in finance too. But was it a precondition for globalization or the LBO wave? I don't know, but I wouldn't discount the possibility. It may be that the refragmentation was driven by computers in the way the industrial revolution was driven by steam engines. Whether or not computers were a precondition, they have certainly accelerated it. The new fluidity of companies changed people's relationships with their employers. Why climb a corporate ladder that might be yanked out from under you? Ambitious people started to think of a career less as climbing a single ladder than as a series of jobs that might be at different companies. More movement (or even potential movement) between companies introduced more competition in salaries. Plus as companies became smaller it became easier to estimate how much an employee contributed to the company's revenue. Both changes drove salaries toward market price. And since people vary dramatically in productivity, paying market price meant salaries started to diverge. By no coincidence it was in <DATE_TIME> that the term "yuppie" was coined. That word is not much used now, because the phenomenon it describes is so taken for granted, but at the time it was a label for something novel. Yuppies were young professionals who made lots of money. To someone in their <DATE_TIME>, this wouldn't seem worth naming. Why wouldn't young professionals make lots of money? But until <DATE_TIME>, being underpaid early in your career was part of what it meant to be a professional. Young professionals were paying their dues, working their way up the ladder. The rewards would come later. What was novel about yuppies was that they wanted market price for the work they were doing now. The first yuppies did not work for startups. That was still in the future. Nor did they work for big companies. They were professionals working in fields like law, finance, and consulting. But their example rapidly inspired their peers. Once they saw that new BMW 325i, they wanted one too. Underpaying people at the beginning of their career only works if everyone does it. Once some employer breaks ranks, everyone else has to, or they can't get good people. And once started this process spreads through the whole economy, because at the beginnings of people's careers they can easily switch not merely employers but industries. But not all young professionals benefitted. You had to produce to get paid a lot. It was no coincidence that the first yuppies worked in fields where it was easy to measure that. More generally, an idea was returning whose name sounds old-fashioned precisely because it was so rare for so long: that you could make your fortune. As in the past there were multiple ways to do it. Some made their fortunes by creating wealth, and others by playing zero-sum games. But once it became possible to make one's fortune, the ambitious had to decide whether or not to. A physicist who chose physics over Wall Street in <DATE_TIME> was making a sacrifice that a physicist in <DATE_TIME> didn't have to think about. The idea even flowed back into big companies. CEOs of big companies make more now than they used to, and I think much of the reason is prestige. In <DATE_TIME>, corporate CEOs had immense prestige. They were the winners of the only economic game in town. But if they made as little now as they did then, in real dollar terms, they'd seem like small fry compared to professional athletes and whiz kids making millions from startups and hedge funds. They don't like that idea, so now they try to get as much as they can, which is more than they had been getting. [ 19 ] Meanwhile a similar fragmentation was happening at the other end of the economic scale. As big companies' oligopolies became less secure, they were less able to pass costs on to customers and thus less willing to overpay for labor. And as the Duplo world of a few big blocks fragmented into many companies of different sizes - some of them overseas - it became harder for unions to enforce their monopolies. As a result workers' wages also tended toward market price. Which (inevitably, if unions had been doing their job) tended to be lower. Perhaps dramatically so, if automation had decreased the need for some kind of work. And just as the <DATE_TIME> model induced social as well as economic cohesion, its breakup brought social as well as economic fragmentation. People started to dress and act differently. Those who would later be called the "creative class" became more mobile. People who didn't care much for religion felt less pressure to go to church for appearances' sake, while those who liked it a lot opted for increasingly colorful forms. Some switched from meat loaf to tofu, and others to Hot Pockets. Some switched from driving Ford sedans to driving small imported cars, and others to driving SUVs. Kids who went to private schools or wished they did started to dress "preppy," and kids who wanted to seem rebellious made a conscious effort to look disreputable. In a hundred ways people spread apart. [ 20 ] Almost <DATE_TIME>, fragmentation is still increasing. Has it been net good or bad? I don't know; the question may be unanswerable. Not entirely bad though. We take for granted the forms of fragmentation we like, and worry only about the ones we don't. But as someone who caught the tail end of <DATE_TIME> conformism , I can tell you it was no utopia. [ 21 ] My goal here is not to say whether fragmentation has been good or bad, just to explain why it's happening. With the centripetal forces of total war and <DATE_TIME> oligopoly mostly gone, what will happen next? And more specifically, is it possible to reverse some of the fragmentation we've seen? If it is, it will have to happen piecemeal. You can't reproduce <DATE_TIME> cohesion the way it was originally produced. It would be insane to go to war just to induce more national unity. And once you understand the degree to which the economic history of <DATE_TIME> was a low-res version 1, it's clear you can't reproduce that either. <DATE_TIME> cohesion was something that happened at least in a sense naturally. The war was due mostly to external forces, and the Duplo economy was an evolutionary phase. If you want cohesion now, you'd have to induce it deliberately. And it's not obvious how. I suspect the best we'll be able to do is address the symptoms of fragmentation. But that may be enough. The form of fragmentation people worry most about lately is economic inequality , and if you want to eliminate that you're up against a truly formidable headwind that has been in operation since the stone age. Technology. Technology is a lever. It magnifies work. And the lever not only grows increasingly long, but the rate at which it grows is itself increasing. Which in turn means the variation in the amount of wealth people can create has not only been increasing, but accelerating. The unusual conditions that prevailed in <DATE_TIME> masked this underlying trend. The ambitious had little choice but to join large organizations that made them march in step with lots of other people - literally in the case of the armed forces, figuratively in the case of big corporations. Even if the big corporations had wanted to pay people proportionate to their value, they couldn't have figured out how. But that constraint has gone now. Ever since it started to erode in <DATE_TIME>, we've seen the underlying forces at work again. [ 22 ] Not everyone who gets rich now does it by creating wealth, certainly. But a significant number do, and the Baumol Effect means all their peers get dragged along too. [ 23 ] And as long as it's possible to get rich by creating wealth, the default tendency will be for economic inequality to increase. Even if you eliminate all the other ways to get rich. You can mitigate this with subsidies at the bottom and taxes at the top, but unless taxes are high enough to discourage people from creating wealth, you're always going to be fighting a losing battle against increasing variation in productivity. [ 24 ] That form of fragmentation, like the others, is here to stay. Or rather, back to stay. Nothing is forever, but the tendency toward fragmentation should be more forever than most things, precisely because it's not due to any particular cause. It's simply a reversion to the mean. When Rockefeller said individualism was gone, he was right for <DATE_TIME>. It's back now, and that's likely to be true for longer. I worry that if we don't acknowledge this, we're headed for trouble. If we think <DATE_TIME> cohesion disappeared because of few policy tweaks, we'll be deluded into thinking we can get it back (minus the bad parts, somehow) with a few countertweaks. And then we'll waste our time trying to eliminate fragmentation, when we'd be better off thinking about how to mitigate its consequences. Notes [ 1 ] <PERSON>, writing in <DATE_TIME>, said the wage differentials prevailing at <DATE_TIME> World War II had become so embedded that they "were regarded as 'just' even after the egalitarian pressures of World War II had disappeared. Basically, the same differentials exist to <DATE_TIME>, <DATE_TIME>." But <PERSON> and <PERSON> think market forces in the postwar period also helped preserve the wartime compression of wages - specifically increased demand for unskilled workers, and oversupply of educated ones. (Oddly enough, the <NRP> custom of having employers pay for health insurance derives from efforts by businesses to circumvent NWLB wage controls in order to attract workers.) [ 2 ] As always, tax rates don't tell the whole story. There were lots of exemptions, especially for individuals. And in World War II the tax codes were so new that the government had little acquired immunity to tax avoidance. If the rich paid high taxes during the war it was more because they wanted to than because they had to. After the war, federal tax receipts as a percentage of GDP were about the same as they are now. In fact, for the entire period since the war, tax receipts have stayed close to 18% of GDP, despite dramatic changes in tax rates. The lowest point occurred when marginal income tax rates were highest: 14.1% in <DATE_TIME>. Looking at the data, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that tax rates have had little effect on what people actually paid. [ 3 ] Though in fact <DATE_TIME> preceding the war had been a time of unprecedented federal power, in response to the Depression. Which is not entirely a coincidence, because the Depression was one of the causes of the war. In many ways the New Deal was a sort of dress rehearsal for the measures the federal government took during wartime. The wartime versions were much more drastic and more pervasive though. As <PERSON> wrote, "for many <NRP> the decisive change in their experiences came not with the New Deal but with World War II." [ 4 ] I don't know enough about the origins of the world wars to say, but it's not inconceivable they were connected to the rise of big corporations. If that were the case, <DATE_TIME> cohesion would have a single cause. [ 5 ] More precisely, there was a bimodal economy consisting, in Galbraith's words, of "the world of the technically dynamic, massively capitalized and highly organized corporations on the one hand and the hundreds of thousands of small and traditional proprietors on the other." Money, prestige, and power were concentrated in the former, and there was near zero crossover. [ 6 ] I wonder how much of the decline in families eating together was due to the decline in families watching TV together afterward. [ 7 ] I know when this happened because it was the season <LOCATION> premiered. Everyone else was talking about what was happening on <LOCATION>, and I had no idea what they meant. [ 8 ] I didn't realize it till I started doing research for this essay, but the meretriciousness of the products I grew up with is a well-known byproduct of oligopoly. When companies can't compete on price, they compete on tailfins. [ 9 ] Monroeville Mall was at the time of its completion in <DATE_TIME> the largest in the country. In <DATE_TIME> the movie Dawn of the Dead was shot there. Apparently the mall was not just the location of the movie, but its inspiration; the crowds of shoppers drifting through this huge mall reminded <PERSON> of zombies. My first job was scooping ice cream in <LOCATION>. [ 10 ] Labor unions were exempted from antitrust laws by the Clayton Antitrust Act in <DATE_TIME> on the grounds that a person's work is not "a commodity or article of commerce." I wonder if that means service companies are also exempt. [ 11 ] The relationships between unions and unionized companies can even be symbiotic, because unions will exert political pressure to protect their hosts. According to <PERSON>, when politicians tried to attack the A&P supermarket chain because it was putting local grocery stores out of business, "A&P successfully defended itself by allowing the unionization of its workforce in <DATE_TIME>, thereby gaining organized labor as a constituency." I've seen this phenomenon myself: hotel unions are responsible for more of the political pressure against Airbnb than hotel companies. [ 12 ] Galbraith was clearly puzzled that corporate executives would work so hard to make money for other people (the shareholders) instead of themselves. He devoted much of The New Industrial State to trying to figure this out. His theory was that professionalism had replaced money as a motive, and that modern corporate executives were, like (good) scientists, motivated less by financial rewards than by the desire to do good work and thereby earn the respect of their peers. There is something in this, though I think lack of movement between companies combined with self-interest explains much of observed behavior. [ 13 ] Galbraith (p. 94) says a <DATE_TIME> study of the 800 highest paid executives at 300 big corporations found that three quarters of them had been with their company for <DATE_TIME>. [ 14 ] It seems likely that in <DATE_TIME> executive salaries were low partly because companies then were more dependent on banks, who would have disapproved if executives got too much. This was certainly true in the beginning. The first big company CEOs were <PERSON> hired hands. Companies didn't start to finance themselves with retained earnings till <DATE_TIME>. Till then they had to pay out their earnings in dividends, and so depended on banks for capital for expansion. Bankers continued to sit on corporate boards till the <PERSON>-Steagall act in <DATE_TIME>. By <DATE_TIME> big companies funded 3/4 of their growth from earnings. But <DATE_TIME> of bank dependence, reinforced by the financial controls of World War II, must have had a big effect on social conventions about executive salaries. So it may be that the lack of movement between companies was as much the effect of low salaries as the cause. Incidentally, the switch in <DATE_TIME> to financing growth with retained earnings was one cause of the <DATE_TIME> crash. The banks now had to find someone else to lend to, so they made more margin loans. [ 15 ] Even now it's hard to get them to. One of the things I find hardest to get into the heads of would-be startup founders is how important it is to do certain kinds of menial work early in the life of a company. Doing things that don't scale is to how <PERSON> got started as a high-fiber diet is to the traditional peasant's diet: they had no choice but to do the right thing, while we have to make a conscious effort. [ 16 ] Founders weren't celebrated in the press when I was a kid. "Our founder" meant a photograph of a severe-looking man with a walrus mustache and a wing collar who had died <DATE_TIME>. The thing to be when I was a kid was an executive . If you weren't around then it's hard to grasp the cachet that term had. The fancy version of everything was called the "executive" model. [ 17 ] The wave of hostile takeovers in <DATE_TIME> was enabled by a combination of circumstances: court decisions striking down state anti-takeover laws, starting with the Supreme Court's <DATE_TIME> decision in Edgar v. MITE Corp.; the <PERSON> administration's comparatively sympathetic attitude toward takeovers; the Depository Institutions Act of <DATE_TIME>, which allowed banks and savings and loans to buy corporate bonds; a new SEC rule issued in <DATE_TIME> (rule 415) that made it possible to bring corporate bonds to market faster; the creation of the junk bond business by <PERSON>; a vogue for conglomerates in the preceding period that caused many companies to be combined that never should have been; <DATE_TIME> of inflation that left many public companies trading below the value of their assets; and not least, the increasing complacency of managements. [ 18 ] Foster, <PERSON>. "Creative Destruction Whips through Corporate America." Innosight, <DATE_TIME>. [ 19 ] CEOs of big companies may be overpaid. I don't know enough about big companies to say. But it is certainly not impossible for a CEO to make 200x as much difference to a company's revenues as the average employee. Look at what <PERSON> did for Apple when he came back as CEO. It would have been a good deal for the board to give him 95% of the company. Apple's market cap the day <PERSON> came back in <DATE_TIME> was 1.73 billion. 5% of Apple now (<DATE_TIME>) would be worth about 30 billion. And it would not be if <PERSON> hadn't come back; Apple probably wouldn't even exist anymore. Merely including <PERSON> in the sample might be enough to answer the question of whether public company CEOs in the aggregate are overpaid. And that is not as facile a trick as it might seem, because the broader your holdings, the more the aggregate is what you care about. [ 20 ] The <DATE_TIME> were famous for social upheaval. But that was more rebellion (which can happen in any era if people are provoked sufficiently) than fragmentation. You're not seeing fragmentation unless you see people breaking off to both left and right. [ 21 ] Globally the trend has been in the other direction. While the <LOCATION> is becoming more fragmented, the world as a whole is becoming less fragmented, and mostly in good ways. [ 22 ] There were a handful of ways to make a fortune in <DATE_TIME>. The main one was drilling for oil, which was open to newcomers because it was not something big companies could dominate through economies of scale. How did individuals accumulate large fortunes in an era of such high taxes? Giant tax loopholes defended by two of the most powerful men in Congress, <PERSON> and <PERSON>. But becoming a <LOCATION> oilman was not in <DATE_TIME> something one could aspire to the way starting a startup or going to work on Wall Street were in <DATE_TIME>, because (a) there was a strong local component and (b) success depended so much on luck. [ 23 ] The Baumol Effect induced by startups is very visible in <LOCATION>. Google will pay people millions of dollars a year to keep them from leaving to start or join startups. [ 24 ] I'm not claiming variation in productivity is the only cause of economic inequality in the <LOCATION>. But it's a significant cause, and it will become as big a cause as it needs to, in the sense that if you ban other ways to get rich, people who want to get rich will use this route instead. Thanks to <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON> for reading drafts of this. <PERSON> also told me about several valuable sources. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The Big Change . <PERSON>, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The Dual Economy . Norton, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The New Deal . <PERSON> and Wang, <DATE_TIME>. <LOCATION>, <PERSON>. The <NRP> . Doubleday, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. <PERSON> . <LOCATION>, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. Wheels for the World . Viking, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. Federal Taxation in <LOCATION> . <LOCATION>, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The Visible Hand . Harvard, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The House of Morgan . Simon & Schuster, <DATE_TIME>. Chernow, <PERSON>. Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller . <PERSON>, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The New Industrial State . <PERSON>, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON> and <PERSON>. "The Great Compression: The Wage Structure in <LOCATION> at <DATE_TIME>." NBER Working Paper 3817, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. An Empire of Wealth . HarperCollins, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <LOCATION>. The Genesis of Industrial America, <DATE_TIME> . <LOCATION>, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. Land of Promise . HarperCollins, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>, and <PERSON>. The Company . Modern Library, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. <PERSON> . Penguin, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The Age of Giant Corporations . Praeger, <DATE_TIME>. Thurow, <PERSON>. Generating Inequality: Mechanisms of Distribution . Basic Books, <DATE_TIME>. <PERSON>, <PERSON>. The Politics and Development of the Federal Income Tax . <LOCATION>, <DATE_TIME>. Related: Too Many Elite American Men Are Obsessed With Work and Wealth
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paulgraham
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