src/fundamental_analysis/decision_engine.py

"""
Investment decision engine.
Combines all analyses to generate BUY/SELL/HOLD recommendations.
"""

import numpy as np
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple
from datetime import datetime


class InvestmentDecisionEngine:
    """Generates investment recommendations based on comprehensive analysis"""
    
    def __init__(self, 
                 financial_data: Dict,
                 fundamental_analysis: Dict,
                 sector_analysis: Dict,
                 valuation_analysis: Dict):
        """
        Initialize decision engine
        
        Args:
            financial_data: Raw financial data
            fundamental_analysis: Results from FinancialAnalyzer
            sector_analysis: Results from SectorAnalyzer
            valuation_analysis: Results from ValuationEngine
        """
        self.ticker = financial_data.get('ticker')
        self.company_info = financial_data.get('company_info', {})
        self.current_price = financial_data.get('metrics', {}).get('current_price', 0)
        
        self.fundamental = fundamental_analysis
        self.sector = sector_analysis
        self.valuation = valuation_analysis
        
        self.score_weights = {
            'fundamental': 0.35,
            'sector': 0.25,
            'valuation': 0.40
        }
    
    def score_fundamentals(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Score company fundamentals (0-100)
        
        Returns:
            Fundamental scores and assessment
        """
        scores = {}
        
        # Growth score (0-25)
        growth = self.fundamental.get('growth_analysis', {})
        growth_quality = growth.get('growth_quality', 'Insufficient Data')
        growth_scores = {
            'Strong': 25, 'Good': 18, 'Moderate': 12, 
            'Weak': 5, 'Insufficient Data': 10
        }
        scores['growth'] = growth_scores.get(growth_quality, 10)
        
        # Margin score (0-25)
        margins = self.fundamental.get('margin_analysis', {})
        margin_quality = margins.get('margin_quality', 'Insufficient Data')
        margin_scores = {
            'Excellent': 25, 'Good': 18, 'Moderate': 12,
            'Weak': 5, 'Insufficient Data': 10
        }
        scores['margins'] = margin_scores.get(margin_quality, 10)
        
        # Returns score (0-25)
        returns = self.fundamental.get('returns_analysis', {})
        returns_quality = returns.get('returns_quality', 'Insufficient Data')
        returns_scores = {
            'Excellent': 25, 'Good': 18, 'Moderate': 12,
            'Weak': 5, 'Insufficient Data': 10
        }
        scores['returns'] = returns_scores.get(returns_quality, 10)
        
        # Cash flow score (0-25)
        cash_flow = self.fundamental.get('cash_flow_analysis', {})
        cf_quality = cash_flow.get('cash_flow_quality', 'Insufficient Data')
        cf_scores = {
            'Excellent': 25, 'Good': 18, 'Moderate': 12,
            'Weak': 5, 'Negative': 0, 'Insufficient Data': 10
        }
        scores['cash_flow'] = cf_scores.get(cf_quality, 10)
        
        total_score = sum(scores.values())
        
        return {
            'scores': scores,
            'total': total_score,
            'max': 100,
            'percentage': total_score,
            'grade': self._get_grade(total_score),
            'assessment': self._assess_fundamentals(total_score)
        }
    
    def score_sector_position(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Score company's position within sector (0-100)
        
        Returns:
            Sector position scores and assessment
        """
        scores = {}
        
        # Sector sentiment (0-30)
        sentiment = self.sector.get('sector_sentiment', {})
        overall_sentiment = sentiment.get('overall_sentiment', 'Neutral')
        
        if 'Positive' in overall_sentiment or 'tailwinds' in overall_sentiment:
            scores['sector_sentiment'] = 30
        elif 'Negative' in overall_sentiment or 'headwinds' in overall_sentiment:
            scores['sector_sentiment'] = 10
        else:
            scores['sector_sentiment'] = 20
        
        # Competitive position (0-35)
        ranking = self.sector.get('sector_ranking', {})
        overall_position = ranking.get('overall_position', 'Unknown')
        
        position_scores = {
            'Top 20%': 35, 'Top 40%': 25, 'Middle': 18,
            'Bottom 40%': 10, 'Bottom 20%': 5, 'Unknown': 18
        }
        scores['competitive_position'] = position_scores.get(overall_position, 18)
        
        # Relative profitability (0-20)
        profitability_comp = self.sector.get('profitability_comparison', {})
        prof_vs_sector = profitability_comp.get('profitability_vs_sector', 'Unknown')
        
        prof_scores = {
            'Top Performer': 20, 'Above Average': 15, 
            'Below Average': 8, 'Bottom Performer': 3, 'Unknown': 10
        }
        scores['relative_profitability'] = prof_scores.get(prof_vs_sector, 10)
        
        # Relative growth (0-15)
        growth_comp = self.sector.get('growth_comparison', {})
        growth_vs_sector = growth_comp.get('growth_vs_sector', 'Unknown')
        
        growth_scores = {
            'Fast Grower': 15, 'Above Average Growth': 11,
            'Below Average Growth': 6, 'Lagging Sector': 2, 'Unknown': 8
        }
        scores['relative_growth'] = growth_scores.get(growth_vs_sector, 8)
        
        total_score = sum(scores.values())
        
        return {
            'scores': scores,
            'total': total_score,
            'max': 100,
            'percentage': total_score,
            'grade': self._get_grade(total_score),
            'assessment': self._assess_sector_position(total_score, overall_sentiment)
        }
    
    def score_valuation(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Score valuation attractiveness (0-100)
        
        Returns:
            Valuation scores and assessment
        """
        scores = {}
        
        # DCF valuation (0-40)
        dcf = self.valuation.get('dcf_valuation', {})
        dcf_upside = dcf.get('upside_percent', 0)
        
        if 'error' not in dcf:
            if dcf_upside > 30:
                scores['dcf'] = 40
            elif dcf_upside > 15:
                scores['dcf'] = 30
            elif dcf_upside > 0:
                scores['dcf'] = 20
            elif dcf_upside > -15:
                scores['dcf'] = 10
            else:
                scores['dcf'] = 0
        else:
            scores['dcf'] = 20  # Neutral if DCF not applicable
        
        # Relative valuation (0-40)
        relative = self.valuation.get('relative_valuation', {})
        avg_upside = relative.get('average_upside', 0)
        
        if avg_upside != 0:
            if avg_upside > 25:
                scores['relative'] = 40
            elif avg_upside > 10:
                scores['relative'] = 30
            elif avg_upside > 0:
                scores['relative'] = 20
            elif avg_upside > -15:
                scores['relative'] = 10
            else:
                scores['relative'] = 0
        else:
            scores['relative'] = 20  # Neutral if not available
        
        # Margin of safety (0-20)
        mos = self.valuation.get('margin_of_safety', {})
        dcf_mos = mos.get('dcf_margin_of_safety', {})
        mos_percent = dcf_mos.get('margin_percent', 0)
        
        if mos_percent > 30:
            scores['margin_of_safety'] = 20
        elif mos_percent > 20:
            scores['margin_of_safety'] = 15
        elif mos_percent > 10:
            scores['margin_of_safety'] = 10
        elif mos_percent > 0:
            scores['margin_of_safety'] = 5
        else:
            scores['margin_of_safety'] = 0
        
        total_score = sum(scores.values())
        
        return {
            'scores': scores,
            'total': total_score,
            'max': 100,
            'percentage': total_score,
            'grade': self._get_grade(total_score),
            'assessment': self._assess_valuation(total_score)
        }
    
    def calculate_overall_score(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Calculate weighted overall investment score
        
        Returns:
            Overall score and breakdown
        """
        fundamental_score = self.score_fundamentals()
        sector_score = self.score_sector_position()
        valuation_score = self.score_valuation()
        
        # Calculate weighted score
        weighted_score = (
            fundamental_score['percentage'] * self.score_weights['fundamental'] +
            sector_score['percentage'] * self.score_weights['sector'] +
            valuation_score['percentage'] * self.score_weights['valuation']
        )
        
        return {
            'overall_score': weighted_score,
            'max_score': 100,
            'grade': self._get_grade(weighted_score),
            'breakdown': {
                'fundamental': {
                    'score': fundamental_score['percentage'],
                    'weight': self.score_weights['fundamental'],
                    'weighted_score': fundamental_score['percentage'] * self.score_weights['fundamental'],
                    'details': fundamental_score
                },
                'sector': {
                    'score': sector_score['percentage'],
                    'weight': self.score_weights['sector'],
                    'weighted_score': sector_score['percentage'] * self.score_weights['sector'],
                    'details': sector_score
                },
                'valuation': {
                    'score': valuation_score['percentage'],
                    'weight': self.score_weights['valuation'],
                    'weighted_score': valuation_score['percentage'] * self.score_weights['valuation'],
                    'details': valuation_score
                }
            }
        }
    
    def generate_recommendation(self) -> str:
        """
        Generate BUY/SELL/HOLD recommendation
        
        Returns:
            Investment recommendation
        """
        overall = self.calculate_overall_score()
        score = overall['overall_score']
        
        # Base recommendation on score
        if score >= 70:
            base_rec = "STRONG BUY"
        elif score >= 60:
            base_rec = "BUY"
        elif score >= 50:
            base_rec = "HOLD"
        elif score >= 40:
            base_rec = "SELL"
        else:
            base_rec = "STRONG SELL"
        
        # Adjust based on specific red flags
        red_flags = self.identify_red_flags()
        
        if red_flags['critical_issues']:
            if base_rec in ["STRONG BUY", "BUY"]:
                base_rec = "HOLD"
            elif base_rec == "HOLD":
                base_rec = "SELL"
        
        return base_rec
    
    def identify_red_flags(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Identify critical red flags
        
        Returns:
            Red flags and warnings
        """
        red_flags = {
            'critical_issues': [],
            'warnings': [],
            'positive_signs': []
        }
        
        # Check cash flow
        cf_analysis = self.fundamental.get('cash_flow_analysis', {})
        if cf_analysis.get('free_cash_flow', 0) < 0:
            red_flags['critical_issues'].append("Negative free cash flow")
        
        # Check earnings
        growth = self.fundamental.get('growth_analysis', {})
        if growth.get('net_income_growth_yoy', 0) < -0.10:
            red_flags['warnings'].append("Declining earnings (>10% drop)")
        
        # Check margins
        margins = self.fundamental.get('margin_analysis', {})
        if margins.get('operating_margin_trend', 0) < -0.02:
            red_flags['warnings'].append("Contracting operating margins")
        
        # Check debt
        health = self.fundamental.get('financial_health', {})
        interest_coverage = health.get('interest_coverage')
        if interest_coverage and interest_coverage < 2:
            red_flags['critical_issues'].append("Low interest coverage (<2x)")
        
        # Check valuation
        valuation_score = self.score_valuation()
        if valuation_score['percentage'] < 25:
            red_flags['warnings'].append("Expensive valuation")
        
        # Check sector
        sector_sentiment = self.sector.get('sector_sentiment', {})
        if 'Negative' in sector_sentiment.get('overall_sentiment', ''):
            red_flags['warnings'].append("Sector facing headwinds")
        
        # Positive signs
        if cf_analysis.get('fcf_positive_trend', False):
            red_flags['positive_signs'].append("Growing free cash flow")
        
        if margins.get('operating_leverage', False):
            red_flags['positive_signs'].append("Expanding operating margins")
        
        returns = self.fundamental.get('returns_analysis', {})
        if returns.get('roic', 0) > 0.15:
            red_flags['positive_signs'].append("Strong return on invested capital (>15%)")
        
        return red_flags
    
    def generate_confidence_score(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Generate confidence level in recommendation
        
        Returns:
            Confidence metrics
        """
        confidence_factors = []
        
        # Data quality
        fundamental = self.score_fundamentals()
        if fundamental['grade'] != 'F':
            confidence_factors.append(0.3)
        
        # Sector data available
        if self.sector.get('peer_count', 0) > 0:
            confidence_factors.append(0.25)
        
        # Valuation methods available
        valuation = self.valuation.get('relative_valuation', {})
        methods_available = sum([
            'pe_valuation' in valuation,
            'peg_valuation' in valuation,
            'pb_valuation' in valuation
        ])
        confidence_factors.append(methods_available * 0.15)
        
        # Score consistency
        overall = self.calculate_overall_score()
        breakdown = overall['breakdown']
        scores = [
            breakdown['fundamental']['score'],
            breakdown['sector']['score'],
            breakdown['valuation']['score']
        ]
        std_dev = np.std(scores)
        if std_dev < 15:  # Scores are consistent
            confidence_factors.append(0.15)
        
        confidence = sum(confidence_factors)
        
        return {
            'confidence_score': min(confidence, 1.0),
            'confidence_level': self._get_confidence_level(confidence),
            'factors': confidence_factors
        }
    
    def _get_grade(self, score: float) -> str:
        """Convert score to letter grade"""
        if score >= 90:
            return 'A+'
        elif score >= 80:
            return 'A'
        elif score >= 70:
            return 'B'
        elif score >= 60:
            return 'C'
        elif score >= 50:
            return 'D'
        else:
            return 'F'
    
    def _get_confidence_level(self, confidence: float) -> str:
        """Convert confidence score to level"""
        if confidence >= 0.8:
            return "Very High"
        elif confidence >= 0.6:
            return "High"
        elif confidence >= 0.4:
            return "Moderate"
        else:
            return "Low"
    
    def _assess_fundamentals(self, score: float) -> str:
        """Assess fundamental strength"""
        if score >= 80:
            return "Excellent fundamentals - Strong business"
        elif score >= 60:
            return "Good fundamentals - Solid business"
        elif score >= 40:
            return "Moderate fundamentals - Average business"
        else:
            return "Weak fundamentals - Concerning business"
    
    def _assess_sector_position(self, score: float, sentiment: str) -> str:
        """Assess sector position"""
        if score >= 70:
            return f"Leading position in sector ({sentiment})"
        elif score >= 50:
            return f"Average position in sector ({sentiment})"
        else:
            return f"Weak position in sector ({sentiment})"
    
    def _assess_valuation(self, score: float) -> str:
        """Assess valuation"""
        if score >= 70:
            return "Attractive valuation - Undervalued"
        elif score >= 50:
            return "Fair valuation - Reasonably priced"
        elif score >= 30:
            return "Full valuation - Fairly valued to slightly expensive"
        else:
            return "Expensive valuation - Overvalued"
    
    def generate_investment_thesis(self) -> str:
        """
        Generate investment thesis narrative
        
        Returns:
            Investment thesis text
        """
        recommendation = self.generate_recommendation()
        overall = self.calculate_overall_score()
        red_flags = self.identify_red_flags()
        
        thesis = []
        
        # Opening
        thesis.append(f"**{recommendation}** - Overall Score: {overall['overall_score']:.1f}/100 ({overall['grade']})")
        thesis.append("")
        
        # Fundamental assessment
        fund_score = overall['breakdown']['fundamental']['details']
        thesis.append(f"**Fundamentals ({fund_score['percentage']:.0f}/100):** {fund_score['assessment']}")
        
        # Sector position
        sector_score = overall['breakdown']['sector']['details']
        thesis.append(f"**Sector Position ({sector_score['percentage']:.0f}/100):** {sector_score['assessment']}")
        
        # Valuation
        val_score = overall['breakdown']['valuation']['details']
        thesis.append(f"**Valuation ({val_score['percentage']:.0f}/100):** {val_score['assessment']}")
        thesis.append("")
        
        # Key positives
        if red_flags['positive_signs']:
            thesis.append("**Key Strengths:**")
            for sign in red_flags['positive_signs']:
                thesis.append(f"  ✓ {sign}")
            thesis.append("")
        
        # Key concerns
        if red_flags['critical_issues'] or red_flags['warnings']:
            thesis.append("**Key Concerns:**")
            for issue in red_flags['critical_issues']:
                thesis.append(f"  ⚠ {issue}")
            for warning in red_flags['warnings']:
                thesis.append(f"  • {warning}")
            thesis.append("")
        
        # Confidence
        confidence = self.generate_confidence_score()
        thesis.append(f"**Confidence Level:** {confidence['confidence_level']} ({confidence['confidence_score']*100:.0f}%)")
        
        return "\n".join(thesis)
    
    def generate_decision_report(self) -> Dict:
        """
        Generate comprehensive investment decision report
        
        Returns:
            Complete decision analysis
        """
        return {
            'ticker': self.ticker,
            'company_name': self.company_info.get('company_name', self.ticker),
            'current_price': self.current_price,
            'analysis_date': datetime.now().isoformat(),
            'recommendation': self.generate_recommendation(),
            'overall_score': self.calculate_overall_score(),
            'confidence': self.generate_confidence_score(),
            'red_flags': self.identify_red_flags(),
            'investment_thesis': self.generate_investment_thesis()
        }


if __name__ == "__main__":
    print("This module is meant to be imported and used with results from other analyzers")